Nice narration raven.
i dig the telepathic/voices in the head concept.
Disclaimer: long post coming up
Tl;dnr: don’t vote me out, I am a villager
Part I
Well, it looks like I am going to be toast soon, which I want to reiterate is a mistake because I am not a wolf, and for the reasons I am going to enunciate now.
Unfortunately I don’t expect to be swaying many votes, because it is generally easier and safer to stay put, especially in situations like this where nobody is cleared and nobody is highly suspicious, so everyone has to be looking after their own skin.
I understand why I am ‘suspect’ to some, but I also think that it is a bit overplayed, and that it could easily be exploited to push votes my way
So let’s start from there.
I have received votes for three different reasons.
- Moyank voted me because she was at risk of being ousted herself. An obvious, defensive vote, which carries no ulterior significance to me. Whether she is a wolf or not, she would vote for me to increase the chances to save her own skin. Only reason not to do that as a villager would be if she has reasons to believe I am a special, and thus more valuable to the village the her (if she is not).
- Meister claims he voted for me because I voted for him. There is no game logic in this, especially as the alternative was anjinha, who then proved to be a villager, so there is not much to discuss. If anyone voting for a villager was a wolf, we would have a very hairy town. His own votes are so far all for proven villagers (one more to be added to the list soon), which also does not mean much, until we find the wolves and we can put the votes in context.
- Scepticalscribe voted for me because she believes that wolves would have killed me –or attempted to kill me- during one of the first two nights. I understand her reasoning, and was actually expecting it because she made no secret it was coming, and it is not the first time it happens (not necessarily from her). In a way I appreciate it because it
is flattering, but on the other hand it is frustrating because it paints me in a small corner in many games: either I die killed by the wolves, or I die because I
wasn’t killed by the wolves.
In any case, this is reasonable case, and worth exploring further, plus I also have to admit that I have used the same reasoning directed to others at times.
That said, there are several weaknesses to this argument (applied to me or others), first of all, the same thing could be said of many of the other players, which carry different but equally valuable skills to the village table: Scepticalscribe herself, Moyank, Twietee, Queenofspades just to name some currently alive, are all very experienced players which would make a ‘prime’ wolf target in any given game. i just happen to have a much better PR office
. In fact, with the exception of Meister who is a rookie and Anjinha who i think hasn’t played for a long time, everyone else is a ‘regular’, proven to be excellent players and dangerous wolves.
Even accepting the idea that to wolves my presence in the village is more undesirable than that of others, we have to take into account that the hunter might also draw the same conclusions, and the wolves would adjust their strategy to take that into consideration.
Am I –as a target- so desirable to risk losing a kill? No.
Only the seer is worth that risk, or a player who has factual information/powers to threaten them in the immediate. A bit of statistics and analysis, is not enough in my opinion, especially at the beginning where there is nothing to go on.
with the presence of hunter protection, it becomes a game of cat-and-mouse: will the hunter protect the high-value-target on night one? Then the wolves will go to a secondary target. But if the hunter gambles that the WW would do just that, s/he can protect someone else and keep it open for night two, and so on. to be sure, they would accept the likely possibility they miss a kill. that is a very high price to pay, especially in a game without infection.
Or maybe they did plan on hitting me on night 1 or 2, but for some reasons they could have decided in favor of other priorities (e.g. killing the seer or hunter, getting rid of a partner who got suspicious, etc.), or decided to go after a target who was equally valuable but possibly less likely to be protected (e.g plutonius).
if you combine the higher possibility of a failed attempt, the possible other reasons to selecting someone else with the fact that me not being killed automatically makes me a suspect for lynching and a vote-getter (as proven by today), then the 'benefit' to the wolves of letting me live far outweigh whatever contribution i can give. Not to mention that some of my analysis/theories my be way off, and thus the wolves may opt to let it float around as unwitting misdirections.
Then there is the seer, if we accept the theory that I am eminently dangerous, the seer might feel the same way. Since there is a 90% (9/10) chance the seer wasn’t plutonius and thus survived night 1, either they did not scan me on night 1 (which weakens the premise) or they did and I turned out innocent. The same possibility barely goes down, to ~78%, that s/he survived night 2 (7/9), and yet I am here, not outed.
So while I understand SS vote (and those who agree with the reasoning even if they didn’t vote for me), and I don’t blame her for doing so, I know she is wrong this time and I think there is enough to warrant a change of mind, and target.
More on that coming up, now I have my secondary hobby to take care of
