muh-nutz!
Seriously though... There are a lot of knowledgeable people that have already pointed out far more reasons why this is not what our excitement drives us to convince ourselves it's iPhone related, and very few indicators that it could be. We'll just have to accept that it's for something else, and watch for other iPhone rumors.
Apple is not known for changing the presentation of a product refresh. They have one of the planet's most successful branding strategies, and they aren't likely to deviate far from the original iPhone media look and feel when they update the handset. They'll want to make sure that you know in the first 10 frames, that you are watching an iPhone commercial when it debuts. For that (as MANY have already pointed out), you would not need an Apple store to achieve, just a soundstage.
In fact, taking previous broadcast initiatives into consideration, it's much more likely that they are further promoting an in-store service the staff provides or that it's another production altogether (like a press piece as, again many have already pointed out). I wouldn't totally rule out a new approach to the back to school promotion however. Though they have not practiced wide media distribution with these types of promotions in the past, there are no guidelines that specifically make it unlikely... only historical example. That itself is not subject to change when you consider that we already know that this year's promotion is expected to be larger, and Apple may want to take advantage of the large growth they've seen on college campuses and such.
Any way you slice this, it's almost certainly not 3G iPhone related. -sadly.
I'd like to hear more from the poster that claimed the spot in question here was actually shot over the weekend in LA. This is more likely, I'd just like to see if there are any details available for that... such as the specific focus of the spot?