10% of Consumers 'Very Likely' to Buy a Smartwatch in 2015, Suggesting 24M Apple Watches


usarioclave

macrumors 65816
Sep 26, 2003
1,449
1,503
He doesn't mean he's going to use an app to find love. He's going to buy a watch for his wife/girlfriend, and expects to get laid. Seems like a good plan to me.
The biggest neato thing is you can draw a picture and have it appear on the other watch - in realtime. In the pictographic regions of Asia (China, Korea, Japan) it'll be the biggest thing since sliced bread.

For the booty call, draw a picture. You don't have to wait for the R-rated emoji - draw it! It'll be totally hilarious. it'd be totally cool if you could draw notes and it'd play on the other watch (or iPhone, not sure how that works) - like a jingle booty call.

My wife and I are in for 1 each.
 

iZac

macrumors 68020
Apr 28, 2003
2,009
1,065
Shanghai
I predict an enormous market in third party watchbands, like the phone case market. The only reason you don't see rumors about this now is no one has a unit yet to be able to make a compatible band.

So one might consider getting the cheapest watchband, in anticipation of getting nicer, more unique, or cheaper replacement bands later.
This is a very good point. Personally the design of the device itself is still unappealing to me, but it's relatively innocuous. So a better designed device from Apple (gen 3?) removal of the trashy and gimmicky software and a well designed 3rd party band, the thing could do quite well...
 

winston1236

macrumors 68000
Dec 13, 2010
1,867
301
A survey that doesn't include pricing is useless. Sure everyone's a buyer until its 600 dollars.
 

Daalseth

macrumors 6502a
Jun 16, 2012
568
220
This study was about SMART WATCHES in GENERAL, not Apple watches. Smart Watches in general do not need an iPhone paired.
Interesting. A quick perusal of the article highlights Apple Watch and iPhone extensively. While you're right that the original study is about smart watches in general the focus of this article really seems to be on what it means for the Apple Watch. That's what threw me a curve.
 

cdmoore74

macrumors 68020
Jun 24, 2010
2,410
689
I bought a LG G watch for $79 with a $50 Google store credit yesterday and so far the watch has been great. There are better Android Wear watches on the market but none would have been such a bargain. So my question is how can Apple look good releasing a watch at $350 minimum to the average Joe? I believe price is going to play a huge roll in the success/failure of this watch.
 

topmounter

macrumors 68020
Jun 18, 2009
2,212
374
FEMA Region VIII
So the assumption is that everyone who owns a compatible iPhone in that "very likely" category will buy an iWatch and only an iWatch?

They should have asked the survey participants whether they currently wear a watch on a daily basis currently... or if they ever have worn a watch regularly.

I'm sure this unhindered optimism will generate lots of commissions for UBS in the coming months, but it seems more like they're feeding the hype machine than providing objective investment advice.
 

inhalexhale1

macrumors 65816
Jul 17, 2011
1,019
644
PA
I just don't see it happening. Who would want an additional device to charge daily when they got their phone for that?

I love tech but I won't be investing in any smartwatch.
I feel the same way. I just can't see why a smart watch would replace my daily watch. Maybe I would buy the "sport" version, if the price was around the same as competitors.
 

AlecZ

macrumors 65816
Sep 11, 2014
1,181
122
Berkeley, CA
A friend of mine got the Motorola watch, which is probably better than what the Apple watch will be, and it's really goofy.
 

Cameron Hood

macrumors member
Aug 1, 2010
49
16
24,000,001

I'm in.

Cheers,
Cameron

[url=http://cdn.macrumors.com/im/macrumorsthreadlogodarkd.png]Image[/url]


According to a new survey conducted by analysts at UBS, interest in the smartwatch market is continuing to grow ahead of the Apple Watch launch early next year. Of the 4,000 respondents asked to partake in the survey across four different countries, about 10 percent cited that they are "very likely" to buy a smartwatch in the next year. Based on projections of Apple's iPhone sales and the current installed base of iPhones compatible with the Apple Watch, the analysts predict Apple will sell 24 million Apple Watches within the first nine months.Based on an estimate of 240 million iPhones compatible with Apple Watch being in customers' hands by the end of 2015, UBS suggests this could translate to 24 million Apple Watches sold in the first 9-12 months of availability, depending on supplies.

In a smaller survey of customers who registered as very likely to purchase a smart watch, the Apple Watch placed second to the Samsung Gear in buying intentions, although UBS expects those positions to reverse once the Apple Watch becomes available.

The analysts also expect the new Apple wearable to redefine the category much like previous products from the company have done for their respective technological categories. Despite first-version limitations in daily charging and iPhone tethering, UBS sees significant potential for the Apple Watch and predicts it will become the spiritual successor to the iPhone in the long-term.The Apple Watch is set to launch in "early 2015", reportedly in the "spring" according to an internal video from retail chief Angela Ahrendts.

Article Link: 10% of Consumers 'Very Likely' to Buy a Smartwatch in 2015, Suggesting 24M Apple Watches
 

Keirasplace

macrumors 601
Aug 6, 2014
4,064
1,266
Montreal
The big reasons I have no interest in the Apple watch are.. price, ugly UI and inability to use it without iPhone.
So, basically you don't know what your talking about. Look at the price of similar built watches with lot less of everything and their ALL much more expensive. BTW, you CAN use it without a phone. So, there again pure ignorance on your part.
 

Keirasplace

macrumors 601
Aug 6, 2014
4,064
1,266
Montreal
A friend of mine got the Motorola watch, which is probably better than what the Apple watch will be, and it's really goofy.
The small Apple watch is 40% smaller than the Moto 360 and has a much much much better processor and more functionality. Oh, and the build quality is massively better too (says people who have handled both).

So, basically your ALL WRONG... Except about the Moto watch being goofy.
 

BruceEBonus

macrumors 65816
Sep 23, 2007
1,327
1,303
Derbyshire, England
I think this is going to go rampant in high school and college.
Depressingly .. We are talking of individuals with no income...spending disposable income money on something that will be disposed of in less than a year for a fraction of their new price on eBay.

Or ...will Daddy wise up in time to put the mockers on one spending binge too many ... "Whaaaaat? £400 for a wrist-brick? Gerrrourahere you cheeky so and so! Get a job doing a paper round ...then tell me if you're still keen to blow your pocket money on what will be known within six months- as Apples Final Folly!"
 

Keirasplace

macrumors 601
Aug 6, 2014
4,064
1,266
Montreal
I feel the same way. I just can't see why a smart watch would replace my daily watch. Maybe I would buy the "sport" version, if the price was around the same as competitors.
So, you want a watch with extremely poor build quality to save a few bucks on something you wear in the open all day long? OK, then.

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Depressingly .. We are talking of individuals with no income...spending disposable income money on something that will be disposed of in less than a year for a fraction of their new price on eBay.

Or ...will Daddy wise up in time to put the mockers on one spending binge too many ... "Whaaaaat? £400 for a wrist-brick? Gerrrourahere you cheeky so and so! Get a job doing a paper round ...then tell me if you're still keen to blow your pocket money on what will be known within six months- as Apples Final Folly!"
You obviously haven't seen the 42% of high schoolers (I'm assuming they have the same % as the general population, it actually could be higher) who own Iphones in the US... Where do they get the money for that? Also, High schooler spend loads of money on supposedly useless thing (many of them work); $350 dollars won't phase them if they want it enough.

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I bought a LG G watch for $79 with a $50 Google store credit yesterday and so far the watch has been great. There are better Android Wear watches on the market but none would have been such a bargain. So my question is how can Apple look good releasing a watch at $350 minimum to the average Joe? I believe price is going to play a huge roll in the success/failure of this watch.
Because the LG watch looks like crap. Sorry buddy...
 

lincolntran

macrumors 6502a
Jan 18, 2010
843
470
I was pretty upset that we can't create independent app for it. I don't think it'll take off until this happen.
 

usarioclave

macrumors 65816
Sep 26, 2003
1,449
1,503
I was pretty upset that we can't create independent app for it. I don't think it'll take off until this happen.
You couldn't do that on the iPhone 1, and yet it was still a great device. Apple has said that it's coming, but not quite yet.
 

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,344
1,189
I'll eat my own mustache if 24M Apple Watches are sold next year, (assuming Apple doesn't have some major new features / killer apps that they didn't already show off.)

It has a collection of neat ideas, but they don't come together to look like a product that warrants the price tag to me.

The iPhone, when it was first revealed, was the best iPod ever (which meant it was worth at least $300), plus it was the best phone ever (bump up by another $200), plus it was the best for personal email and web browsing (another $300). Plus it had a few other apps. That's how it warranted its huge price tag.

The Apple Watch? It has a few neat ideas, but none of them are worth $100+.
Considering Fitbit and Jawbone sell personal trackers that do much less than the Apple Watch for $100 on a pretty regular basis, I think the Apple Watch will deliver value.

But I'd also be surprised if they sell 20 million of these in 2015. I think the need to recharge it daily is going to be a pretty significant negative.
 

AlecZ

macrumors 65816
Sep 11, 2014
1,181
122
Berkeley, CA
The small Apple watch is 40% smaller than the Moto 360 and has a much much much better processor and more functionality. Oh, and the build quality is massively better too (says people who have handled both).

So, basically your ALL WRONG... Except about the Moto watch being goofy.
Does it have more functionality? The Motorola watch has all the features we know that the Apple watch has, probably more. It's a neat gadget but still isn't very useful. And if the Apple watch is smaller, that's worse, not better. The main problem with the Motorola watch (or any smart watch) is that you have to deal with an annoying little screen.
 

SockRolid

macrumors 68000
Jan 5, 2010
1,560
114
Almost Rock Solid
With a sophisticated user interface and third-party apps coming on, Apple may be readying for the time when the Apple Watch encroaches on the smartphone market.
I'm sure Apple execs have already planned for the post-iPhone era at Apple.

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
- Alan Kay

The Apple Watch is set to launch in "early 2015", reportedly in the "spring" according to an internal video from retail chief Angela Ahrendts.
Technically, "spring" starts on the vernal equinox.
That will be on Friday, March 20 2015.
I can hardly wait
 

bbeagle

macrumors 68040
Oct 19, 2010
3,339
2,453
Buffalo, NY
Interesting. A quick perusal of the article highlights Apple Watch and iPhone extensively. While you're right that the original study is about smart watches in general the focus of this article really seems to be on what it means for the Apple Watch. That's what threw me a curve.
Yep. The survey said that 'X' number of people were interested in A smart watch. The article seemed to imply this meant APPLE watch.
 

djdj

macrumors member
Jul 14, 2008
74
39
Not at $350, $500, or more they won't. Keep in mind that the majority of iPhone owners didn't pay full price for their phone, so anything over $199 is going to induce sticker shock.

This is especially true when there are alternatives for much cheaper -- Fitbit, Pebble, and Microsoft to name three, which are all cross-platform, and are much, much less expensive.