LMAO,,Craig in the morning was calling for his head and Beningo and Roberts opened the 10 show going nuts. Beningo has been geting on Mangenius for a while now.
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2008-09 NFL Season Thread
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LMAO,,Craig in the morning was calling for his head and Beningo and Roberts opened the 10 show going nuts. Beningo has been geting on Mangenius for a while now.
Denver, who I thought would be way ahead by now vs. San Diego? of all teams.
That is in itself another Cinderella story in the making. What if? San Diego gets in and takes the AFC playoffs game by game and then wins the Super Bowl? Then I can get a local team in the big game with another ring.
Last time was a few years back with the Raiders, who lost, at the hands of their former, brilliant coach. Last California team Super Bowl win was after the '94 season with the Niners. But '80, '81, '83, '84, '88, and '89 were all wins for my state off the top of my head.
And before the Niners rise, it was all Raiders with some hope of the Los Angeles Rams doing well. I think that the San Diego Chargers may give southern California something to be happy about besides the Dodgers and the Lakers in the next few years.
If Jets (9W) win, and one or two other teams lose, does that mean the Jets can get in via wild card, or are the Jets numerically out of contention?
I think, but am not sure, that the Ravens (10W) and Bucs (9W) can get in and be dark horse teams that have potential to upset.
And I am sure Dallas (9W) still has a "small" chance. At the last week, the scenarios often end up with someone having to win with another team elsewhere losing concurrently. It's a mess to figure out. I have not read the scenarios and explanations.
Can the Dolphins (10W) get in on a wild card if they lose, or if they lose and other team(s) lose?
What if the Jets win, the Dophins lose, and the Patriots lose? What is that scenario and how will that affect other teams in the hunt? Can the 10 win Pats get in as a wild card if they lose?
I never thought I would have a soft spot for the Patriots this season but they have done well with all the issues thrown at them, mostly the Brady injury. I hope Brady gets well and gets up to speed. He has that 4th ring he wants to win and match his Bay Area hero, Joe Montana. And if and when he gets that 4th ring, I know nobody will put Brady in the same sentence as Montana or Bradshaw and their four rings, or even in the same sentence as high number guys/legends like Tarkenton, Marino, and Stabler, but Brady will be a boy from the Bay Area who did our region proud.
.............................
Also, not as well known as a Bay Area raised kid is Jeff Garcia, who is consistent and holds pretty good numbers. It would be nice for Jeff to get at least one ring, too.
The Bay Area is dwarfed by Los Angeles and all it's sports and movie starts or politicians born and raised there, so when a boy or girl is born or raised here and does well in any endeavor, they make front page Bay Area news whether it's Jeff Garcia (Gilroy High School, south of San Jose), Tom Brady (San Mateo near SF), SF dude OJ Simpson (yes, him as infamous), politician Leon Panetta (Monterey, south of San Jose), or actress Natalie Wood (San Francisco).
AFC Scenarios:
Pats win, Jets win, Ravens win: Pats win AFC East, Ravens win wild card.
Pats win, Dolphins win, Ravens win: Dolphins win AFC East, Ravens win wild card.
Pats win, Dolphins win, Ravens lose: Dolphins win AFC East, Pats win wild card.
Pats win, Jets win, Ravens lose: Pats win AFC East, Jets win wild card.
Pats lose, Jets win, Ravens win: Jets win AFC East, Ravens win wild card.
Pats lose, Jets win, Ravens lose: Jets win AFC East, Ravens win wild card.
Pats lose, Dolphins win, Ravens win or lose: Dolphins win AFC East, Ravens win wild card.
So if the Dolphins and Ravens win, they're in. The Patriots need to win AND either the Jets to beat the Dolphins (to win the AFC East) or the Ravens to lose (for the wild card). The Jets need to beat the Dolphins AND have either the Pats lose or the Ravens lose.
Wow, thanks, that's a great picture. Did you get that from the NFL.com site, or is it another site? Those more difficult scenarios where one has to win and have another lose really confuse me a lot. I didn't know the Patriots were in such a bad scenario. I thought a Patriot win alone would be enough for a spot. I am going to Excel now and try and figure out the odds on that one. They do sound rather long, but not impossible. It would be fun to see the Patriots get in for kicks, or the Jets.
I don't ever recall, off the top of my head, of having any team make the playoffs due to someone else's game, winning in the playoffs, going to the Super Bowl, and then Winning the Super Bowl.
However, in baseball, not too many years ago the San Francisco Giants who were arguably at their worst in many years, and had lost some stars in trades, and had an aging group of high producers, got into the playoffs via wildcard, 95-66 season, eventually won the NL pennant by getting past Atlanta and St. Louis!, and then went onto the World Series, just losing in a 7th game nail biter.
Giants fans were upset, but starting that season, they were at extremely long odds to get to World Series. They were nothing like the consistent late-80s Giants (called the SF sock exchange along with great pitchers to boot), the Mays' SF Giants, or the New York era Giants with all their rings, or other years where Bonds was on the team and not so injured. Bonds could not even raise one of his arms above his shoulder and he had this massive cast on his elbow, and then had this visible limp much of that season. Bonds was fighting more with the club house and front office that year and threatening to walk. Us Giants fans thought that year was going to be a wash and many wanted to kick Bonds and his pissy attitude back to the Pirates, or anybody.
I just typed it out based on watching a ******** of football over the weekend and hearing them repeat the scenarios multiple times. Yahoo also has a nice thing that lets you play around with who wins and loses and it tells you who makes the playoffs.
The Pats are in a tough spot, but it's amazing that they're even in this position after losing the reigning NFL MVP 7 minutes in to the regular season. And if not for the stupid penalty and dropped touchdown against the Colts and losing the coin flip for OT against the Jets, they could easily be 12-3 right now.
Look at the 2001 Patriots. They're coming off a 5-11 (last place in their division) season, and 2 games in to the season their franchise QB (who had just signed a 10 year, $103 million contract) goes down. In comes the 2nd year backup who leads them to an 11-5 record and a division title. They go in to the playoffs as huge underdogs and end up upsetting the 14 point favorite greatest show on turf to win the Super Bowl.
Basically, playoffs are completely different than the regular season. All you have to do is get there, and then anything can happen. Look at the Giants last year or the Steelers in 2005: 6th seeds who barely got in and went on to win it all. That's the great thing about sports, and its why we watch them.
jets and dolphins would have been game of the week if the jets won the game since the game would have been winner take all, but not anymore. but congrats to the dolphins, they have been playing great football this year. after that awful season last year, they are just one win away from a home playoff game, and it's all thanks to the changes in the front office.
to make it simple, for the afc east teams, they must win to stay in the playoff chase. if they lose their game, they are eliminated. dolphins cannot win the wild card, can only win the division and all they have to do is win. the ravens can get in even with a loss if the patriots lose too, and are the only one of the four that can lose and get into the playoffs.
btw, the jets need either the patriots or ravens to lose their game (and need to win theirs) to get into the playoffs.
on the nfc, the cowboys just need to win next week to get into the playoffs (crazy sunday). they can get a #5 if the falcons lose as well (unlikely, they are playing the rams). the falcons can still win the south and get the other bye away from the panthers if the saints beat the panthers and they take care of business.
here's the full playoff scenario: http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/12/your-full-nfl-playoff-scenario-list.html
BINGO!!..Teams get hot,teams go cold,guys wet their pants that can't handle the playoff pressure.What happens in the regular season doesn't always carry over to the playoffs..Look at how many wild cards have won a SB in the last several years. The AFC could have two wild card teams that are 12-4 and 11-5.12-4 and you're a wild card? It's wide open this year.Any team can heat up and run the table. That's what is great about the NFL playoffs.
Full court press on the Penguin's nads:
Man, that's what is great about any sport.
I love the teams that beat long odds, like a 2-14 team going 14-2 just two years later and winning the Super Bowl.
Usually the odds favor (a really great team at least winning some games the next year or a very poor team losing a few games the next year), within a 99.7% percent, three standard deviation margin of safety in a normal distribution, but that 0.3% percent are those oddballs that math people can never figure like the 1979 San Francisco 49ers morphing into the spectacular 1981 San Francisco 49ers and the beginning of a dynasty that would go until Steve Young got hurt early in the 1999 season to basically end the Niners dynasty of Montana and Young, which would be similar in odds as Detroit winning the Super Bowl next year or year after that, and then going on to become strong or very strong for many years to come.
Math can only determine factors so far, but cannot predict the actions of a player who gets a groin injury and how quickly that player will recover, how how a team that has a strong draft pick will choose if given that opportunity.
Using mathematical models, we can predict most of the teams next year who will probably within 1.6 SD/90%, 2/95%, and 3/99.7% probability, for betting purposes, if they will win more than lose. But that's assuming same players staying on same teams. That's assuming past stats and doesn't take into account coach changes, or asst. coach changes.
The local Bay Area statsmen/women I read usually get it pretty close in their baseball, basketball, and football picks but nobody that I know of has been right every time.
All that being said, I think the odds for the Pats winning the Super Bowl less than 1 in 10, or that 1.6 Standard Deviation number, aka, 90% percent number against Pats going all the way. But I would not be surprised if I plugged in all the known factors into Excel and found the odds against the Pats to be 95% percent, or even 99.7% percent, or "333 to 1" against the Pats. I am too lazy to plug this stuff all in, but Pats odds are very, very long so I think I will, for fun, root for them since the Niners and Raiders are out of contention.
In recent NFL activity, people thought the Steelers could squeak by the Titans, but the stats were against the Steelers so I was boldly predicting a Titans win in my mind, but I didn't foresee the blowout that the Titans enjoyed. Big Ben, usually a careful QB in his career, had been threatening to match TD and interception numbers, usually not a great sign of that position, thus his mediocre 80 QB rating
Stats favored Giants over Carolina, though people felt a slight slump in the Giant's late season follow through. But Giants went the way of math, too and won.
So as math really, really goes against Pats, a Pats Super Bowl win may show what many of us knew, that they are and were much more than just Tom Brady. Anyway, go Pats.
The Dolphins have a good long term history, actually the winningest team in the NFL to date at .580 percentage and of course many thanks to Dan Marino. I wish he had a ring.
I have not followed the Dolphins much but it will be interesting to see what happens to them.
Ditto on the Dan Marino thought. In my opinion he is easily one of the greatest QBs of all time, but because he never had a complete team, he gets no ring, and with no ring its hard to ever be considered one of the greatest. "Blah blah blah... but he doesnt have a ring, so he isnt a great QB". Bull crap. I can go down a list of lousy QBs who have a ring based on being on a good team, but cant hold a candle to Dan Marino.
But any who... Sunday will be a heck of a football day. My team, Miami playing for the division, and Denver (where I live, and my second favorite team) playing for the division. Woo Hoo!
Does anyone else think a system where an 8-8 team can make the playoffs but an 11-5 team cannot is a little crazy?
Another Question: In many past years, the two best teams have resided in the same conference, so that conference championship game became the de facto superbowl, and the superbowl was a blowout. Since conferences are arbitrary, wouldn't it be better if playoff seedings were done irrespective of conference?
Another Question: In many past years, the two best teams have resided in the same conference, so that conference championship game became the de facto superbowl, and the superbowl was a blowout. Since conferences are arbitrary, wouldn't it be better if playoff seedings were done irrespective of conference?
I like the thought of having the two conferences both send one representative to the superbowl. However, I agree that the playoff system could use some work. Teams that have no business being in the playoffs can get in by simply being in a terrible conference (cough, arizona cardnals, cough), while very good teams miss out by virtue of being in a competitive conference. ie. the Patriots will miss the playoffs if Miami wins. 11- 5 = go home. 8-8 = playoffs with a home game, even. Lame.
For defense/offense/yards/sacks/tackles/running backs/qb rating/momentum, the two teams that are odds on favorites do reside in the same conference, in the same division in fact
the titans and the colts
Both totally deserve to win the Super Bowl for a lot of reasons ... with the titans coming from relative obscurity and a low key position to show real stunning defensive force on the field and letting steeler's fans know who was boss (among other games/teams), and of course indy with a huge winning streak and a real reason to go to Super Bowl to take out the giants (this might be fun).
Titans will take giants, if that's the case as giants have a 3-1 favor in going there over any other NFC team, and the titans are not far back. If the steelers rest Big Ben and he gets his talent back and his mid-90s passer rating style, some odds makers put the steeler's as the odds on favorite, along with the titans to represent the afc. Only time will tell. I think if the steeler's qb gets his mobility back and the o-line recoups and gives him just a little more time, the steelers can dominate the afc in the playoffs. Judging from his movements, the steeler's qb is playing hurt, extremely hurt, but he is tough like steve young and brett favre of old.
but giants can take indy, possibly if that is the final scenario for the big game
if steelers go there as they are, the giants will beat them
but if steelers get over injuries/mistakes, and they do have rest time, then the steelers can take the giants 21-14
How awesome would that superbowl be? Im actually thinking the colts can beat the titans and the steelers (strictly because of peyton manning), so they may very well make it to the big game. And the giants, in my opinion have the nfc locked up, as long as they dont have an off game, which can easily happen in the playoffs.
My guess for the championship is Giants vs Colts... and from there i have no idea who would take it.
Where I put the Titans at #1 in the NFL and Indy at #2 in the NFL (#2 in AFC), Vic Carucci puts the Titans at #1 in NFL, like me, but Indy at #5 in the NFL (#3 in AFC).
Certainly he's the pro on this type of thing, but at least he thinks Indy is #3 in AFC where I think they are #2 in AFC. It's hair splitting, I know, but somewhere I think Indy is close to the Titans, if not their equal. We will soon see.
Certainly he's the pro on this type of thing, but at least he thinks Indy is #3 in AFC where I think they are #2 in AFC. It's hair splitting, I know, but somewhere I think Indy is close to the Titans, if not their equal. We will soon see.
Peyton, in my guess from last gazillion games, and NFL records he holds, will pass for a lot of yards, but Giants defense will stop him a lot in red zone. It will throw Peyton off.
The Giants will run like crazy and Indy will have an hard time containing the run. If they do contain the run, Eli has stepped up his qb numbers, but not up to Peyton standards, of course, historically.
If the Giants go to the big game, one way they can win is to get two of their running backs into the end zone, and have the running backs make 3rd down conversions and just wear out the Colts. Against the Titans, well, that's different and while not containing NY's running game, they will hold it off just enough I think.
Vic's top five picks:
Titans
Giants
Panthers
Steelers
Indy
...and with all the talk about Titans, Giants, and Indy (aka Manning Bowl), the Panthers and Steelers, coming off of losses, still have time to recoup. The Mannings have their rings, and that's nice and all. The Titans have the press and glory. But little talk of Panthers and Steelers and there is a possibility one of them can walk off with ring, especially the Panthers, who barely lost against their chief NFC rival. The Panthers need just slight tweaking and then they are the "it" team of the NFL. The Panthers can be the next dynasty, along with the Titans for the next decade of football. The Pats may have run their course much like the 90s Cowboys and the 80s Niners dynasties did.
Just do it like the NBA and NHL. Top 6 in each conference make it. Do it completely by records. Top 2 get the bye week.
^What?
The NHL and NBA do Top 8 per conference. The Top 3 seeds are the #1 teams in their respective divisions. After the top 3 seeds it's determined by wins (NBA) or points (NHL)
The NHL and NBA do Top 8 per conference. The Top 3 seeds are the #1 teams in their respective divisions. After the top 3 seeds it's determined by wins (NBA) or points (NHL)
zioxide is saying that instead of having the four division winners and the two next best records get into the playoffs, we just go strictly by record and let in the top six record holders in the playoffs. in that system, the broncos and chargers would have been out of the playoffs for some time now instead of fighting for a home playoff game. this has been a debate in recent years around the nfl.
That would make sense, but I think top 8 record holders, regardless of conference. No stupid bye week. First week of playoffs will eliminate 4 teams, second week will be the conference title (substituting a team in one conference for another if it does not even out, and third week will be the Super Bowl, or have a week off after conference title, and then have Super Bowl letting the hype and advertisers build up a good head of steam. This would simplify it and ensure teams that are just in to fight to the end. The two best teams win, period. What a novel idea.
Something should be done will college bowls. Have all the division 1 bowl winners with the best records and highest scores in those bowls vs. losers, combine those to make a number, and have the two best teams in the nation based on that formula to meet up. So if there are four remaining perfect score bowl winners, find the two with the best score/highest margin over bowl opponent, and pick the best two. Then every year we can have a national champion in college, division 1.
My guess is that it wouldn't always USC, Alabama, Michigan, Texas, UCLA, or Ohio. There may be surprises, there may be dynasties, like Wooden's basketball franchise.
who will grab the few spots remaining?
i won't even venture to guess, but i know some top teams will rest their starters and lose this game as they don't need it if they have either home field or division wrapped up
nobody needs to have a manning go down for the remainder of this year or other teams see stars get injured if they have a solid position for the playoffs already
as coach i would hold back even 2nd string people if they are good and focus on playoffs
i remember one year, or more, during the niners dynasty when third string guys went out there and weren't all that bad (coaches had to protect assets in last week or two of regular season play and bench montana, craig, lott, rice, and young as any one of them could rage through playoffs and get a ring and super bowl mvp)
nothing is more sad than seeing a top starter take a fall in the last week of play if their team does not need that win for anything outside of team pride (pats the modern exception because they were trying to catch "perfect season" dolphins)
anyway, i don't think i will live to see any team win in every game in regular season, playoffs, and then super bowl ... the odds are just too gigantic
i won't even venture to guess, but i know some top teams will rest their starters and lose this game as they don't need it if they have either home field or division wrapped up
nobody needs to have a manning go down for the remainder of this year or other teams see stars get injured if they have a solid position for the playoffs already
as coach i would hold back even 2nd string people if they are good and focus on playoffs
i remember one year, or more, during the niners dynasty when third string guys went out there and weren't all that bad (coaches had to protect assets in last week or two of regular season play and bench montana, craig, lott, rice, and young as any one of them could rage through playoffs and get a ring and super bowl mvp)
nothing is more sad than seeing a top starter take a fall in the last week of play if their team does not need that win for anything outside of team pride (pats the modern exception because they were trying to catch "perfect season" dolphins)
anyway, i don't think i will live to see any team win in every game in regular season, playoffs, and then super bowl ... the odds are just too gigantic
titans, steelers, colts, giants and cardinals are locked into their playoff spots and most likely sit their starters after the first quarter (arizona may want to play a bit harder though after that lackluster game last week). if the patriots lose their game tomorrow, the ravens may sit starters in the second half (they play later and would clinch a playoff spot if the pats lose).
With potentially hundreds of millions on the line in ticket sales (I went to the grad school, one of two in the United States) that graduated the fictional character of Jerry Maguire, a full half is too much to stake, especially when it comes to injury. Look what happened to Brady in just minutes!
The NFL, professional hockey, MLB, and NBA comes down to money and the easiest way to protect those millions is to play the starters a few plays in the first quarter, since there is too much to risk playing an entire "half". The whole thing comes down to being a business, an asset, a protected golden goose.
Being a liberal Democrat in a school that had grads represent rock stars, sports stars, and other types of household names, with the ultimate of the "bottom line" of the Bush and McCain theories of the "universe" becoming "the" big deal, the protecting them became the whole game, much to my dismay.
I have to say, I got jaded many years ago. Nobody is going to play a starter a whole freakin' half unless they are insane. Too much money on the line. Unfortunately, money, the love of money, rules professional major, American sports. It's Wal-Mart or Microsoft in spandex uniforms.
To clarify, the NFL is not a sport, it's endorsement opportunities in uniforms.
The day a new season starts, nobody on Madison Avenue, NY will remember the last Super Bowl champ.
Football players are there not to play, but to sell goods. I wish it were not so, but so goes the way of a sport millions watch.
The day a new season starts, nobody on Madison Avenue, NY will remember the last Super Bowl champ.
Football players are there not to play, but to sell goods. I wish it were not so, but so goes the way of a sport millions watch.