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2008/9 COLLEGE Football Thread
- Thread starter MacDawg
- Start date
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Has anyone checked out AccuScore to see the statistical odds of each upcoming bowl game? It's pretty interesting, both of the undefeated teams (Utah and BSU) are underdogs.
TCU is given a 65% chance of beating BSU in the Poinsettia Bowl.
http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_ncaaf_game_preview/tab,stats/Itemid,212/game_id,689/
Alabama is given a 77% chance of beating Utah.
http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_ncaaf_game_preview/tab,stats/Itemid,212/game_id,713/
The Florida Oklahoma game is a dead heat according to accuscore: Florida has a 50% chance of winning, Oklahoma has a 49% chance.
Interesting stuff.
SLC
TCU is given a 65% chance of beating BSU in the Poinsettia Bowl.
http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_ncaaf_game_preview/tab,stats/Itemid,212/game_id,689/
Alabama is given a 77% chance of beating Utah.
http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_ncaaf_game_preview/tab,stats/Itemid,212/game_id,713/
The Florida Oklahoma game is a dead heat according to accuscore: Florida has a 50% chance of winning, Oklahoma has a 49% chance.
Interesting stuff.
SLC
That's pretty cool, but I think the BSU TCU game is going to be more dead even than that. And those simulations for the Alabama Utah game don't look good.
P-Worm
That's pretty cool, but I think the BSU TCU game is going to be more dead even than that. And those simulations for the Alabama Utah game don't look good.
P-Worm
im really excited for tcu BSu. with that said i hope TCU wins it
I also hope Utah beats up Alabama
and Florida favored over OU? i dont see the logic there at all
Florida isn't really favored, it's really a dead heat. There's 1% unaccounted for in the estimate (not really sure why?) but still 50% vs 49% is by all accounts a dead heat! But I think Florida will win this one. They've got a solid defense, and a great offense. Oklahoma has an unremarkable defense and has played the entire season against weak defenses.
SLC
That's pretty cool, but I think the BSU TCU game is going to be more dead even than that. And those simulations for the Alabama Utah game don't look good.
P-Worm
No they don't, but it's only a win by 10 points that they are projecting. Take it for what it's worth, if things go exactly as AccuScore's computers project, all Utah needs is one defensive stop and a field goal (any time we get to the 40 yard line with Sakoda) and it's even. All they do for these projections is plot Alabama's offensive plays against Utah's Defensive plays, and vice-versa.
We know after watching the BYU game, that Utah's coaching staff does this exact same thing, and they'll be ready for Bama's offense. Just look at how Utah's defense made it seem as though Max Hall was trying to pass to them, they knew exactly where the ball would likely be going for each and every pass play they tried. Don't expect them to not prepare similarly for Bama.
SLC
Oh, and one more fun little simulation.
ESPN and accuscore created this theoretical simulation of a college football playoff. Take a look, and notice how many upsets happen each time you run the simulation. Take that BCS conferences, even on paper, you don't always have a lock on winning.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls08/bracket?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1
SLC
ESPN and accuscore created this theoretical simulation of a college football playoff. Take a look, and notice how many upsets happen each time you run the simulation. Take that BCS conferences, even on paper, you don't always have a lock on winning.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls08/bracket?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1
SLC
This simulation is awesome. I loaded the top 16 and for some crazy reason TCU has won the playoffs 4 times in a row.
Not before I took the picture, but it wasn't pretty when I did. Though we did lose to the eventual champions!
I'm shocked at how many times Oregon was able to upset Oklahoma in this particular simulation too! I'd say it's almost 50/50. I'm losing my faith in AccuScore now.
SLC
Ooooo, I bet my linebacker can beat up your linebacker!
McCoy would get my vote too. Tebow has had a just decent year stat wise, so I don't know why everyone's so high on him to repeat.
McCoy's ability to hurt you with his legs makes him a more complete QB than Bradford IMO. Plus, all the time Bradford spent throwing the ball late in the 4th quarter with the game well in hand kind of leaves a bad taste.
Ooooo, I bet my linebacker can beat up your linebacker!
I'd throw down some cash on that. But since I was never talking to you to begin with, I won't say more.
If Florida had played all season in the Big 12 South their defense would also be viewed as 'weak'.
for those interested, here's the list of bowl game gifts the players get at each bowl: http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/12/your-2008-2009-college-football-bowl.html
the cotton bowl is the biggest rip off of them all, and for me at least, the insight and alamo bowls have the best stuff.
the cotton bowl is the biggest rip off of them all, and for me at least, the insight and alamo bowls have the best stuff.
Ha ha! I noticed that too. How about Hal Mumme (Leach's "mentor") voting Texas Tech #3?
It's stupid how much bias there is in the voting. Coaches shouldn't be able to vote. They definitely know football, but they certainly don't sit there every Saturday and watch every football game on television. So how can they possibly know what each team is doing?
Kick out the Coaches!
On another note...
I was playing with that Playoff simulator last night and I actually had one where Boise State won the Championship! Ha ha! No way that would happen, but it was still fun to see them in the middle box.
So what does everyone think about the legislature being presented to deny the BCS the ability to market with the words "National Champion"? It's an interesting tactic to be sure, but I doubt it will go anywhere...
If Florida had played all season in the Big 12 South their defense would also be viewed as 'weak'.
If Florida had played all season in the Big 12 South, people would say, "Wait a minute, why aren't you playing in the SEC?"
But seriously, I disagree with your statement (not surprisingly); the SEC actually has an requires a defense. Fortunately for both of us, this will be answered in four weeks, so we won't need to speculate forever. I stand by my previous prediction: The Gators will hold Oklahoma to fewer than three touchdowns, and the Sooners will be shocked at how different it is to play against a team with an actual defense.
TCU has a better defense, and OU put 35 on them. Just sayin'.
Really, it's going to come down to your defensive line. If you can manage to bother Bradford, I think you'll win handily. If not, I think you're in for a surprise.
what the hell
tebow won the maxwell
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3763720
im seriously worried he's going to win the heisman again now with this heavy tebow bias
these awards mean nothing anymore.
i hate espn. i hate the gators. i hate tebow
tebow won the maxwell
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3763720
im seriously worried he's going to win the heisman again now with this heavy tebow bias
these awards mean nothing anymore.
i hate espn. i hate the gators. i hate tebow
TCU has a better defense, and OU put 35 on them. Just sayin'.
Really, it's going to come down to your defensive line. If you can manage to bother Bradford, I think you'll win handily. If not, I think you're in for a surprise.
Yes, and TCU was Oklahoma's lowest scoring game. Crappy Mountain West teams.
SLC
I don't know if I would call him the steadiest necessarily.
In the last 7 games, when the season really mattered, Bradford has thrown for 25 TDs and 1 Int (hey that is pretty close to Tebow's entire season). Meanwhile, in the same stretch, McCoy threw 15TDs and 4TDs.
Oh yeah, McCoy has a rating of 179.20, but let's not forget that Bradford leads the country at 186.29.
Now even though I am an OU fan and will be pulling for Bradford, I would not argue against McCoy because I think he did the most for a team that needed him (UT was only pegged to win 8 or so games this year). I would argue against Tebow because if his numbers were Heisman last year, and there was a considerable drop-off, then I don't know how you deny the other two under consideration.
here in gator land, the local yakkers are gushing over tebow and how he'll never lose another college game again and is the greatest college player ever, etc. they are in tebow love mode more than ever, and it's not going away for some time, since the game is in florida, pratically a home game for the gators since it's a 5 hour drive to dolphins stadium. they think the heisman is in the bag for tebow for his leadership skills and he could win three. i say if he wins the heisman again, he needs to go to the nfl, no questions asked because they will try to hurt tebow next year. i like tebow as a person, but i do not like the gators and the tebow love is getting to be too much.