The 2G 3G v2 iPhone 
So a breakdown of the 9toMac article, and the Times article. We'll wait for Macrumors to catch up
<edit> Thanks for macrumors/Arn/other for the Front page shout out
In brief:
- Apple network partners overbought, undersold, are feeling potential financial losses from unsold/unprofitable stock, and are pressuring Apple
- The 3G iPhone is coming. Announcement by June 10th is definite.
- Ramp up by June for production.
- Different model types to come out (The Times is a bit vague on this)
- Apple has asked "it's Far East suppliers" to produce 200,000 units of the new second generation 3G-enabled iPhone by the end of May.
- Production will ramp up to 2 million, or 500,000 per week, in June, making a June release of the device a done deal.
- The Times, who sources:
- See the new iPhone having a "radically different" appearance to the current generation.
This doesn't discount multiple models (an updated model 3G version, and a new model/models - e.g. flip/clamshell, slider with keyboard, slider etc.)
- When these multiple versions come out is still not pinned down. The Times suggests
- Multiple carriers might get them soon (but then this might be sloppy extrapolation from the investor conference call a month or so back, when Apple described itself as "not wedded" to its exclusivity strategy).
This could be as soon as next year.
(You'd think that, as Intel has it's MID Atom chips becoming more competitive with ARM's offerings, and also the competition to the iPhone becoming much more sophisticated and on a hardware par with v2 iPhone's predicted feature list.)
- European network partners got hit by the reality distortion field of Jobs, but customers expecting 3G iPhones weren't so affected: So the partners overbought, and undersold in relation to their sales estimates. Germany, France and the UK between them reportedly sold 333,000 units by the end of December; expectation had been for between 500,000 to 600,000 sales in the period.
==> the network partners have significant stock of v1 iPhones - This doesn't bode so well for future iPhone users, as this cost will be potentially passed on to the customer (think the 3G licensing fiasco). Kathryn Huberty, an analyst at Morgan Stanley told The Times that losses on early model iPhones would be "significant". Apple's under pressure to share that risk (and more likely to be able to have a way to sell them somehow to the grey market for example). You'd have to say the decision not to have 3G was part of this less than overwhelming response in Europe. Better to make the customer wait than disappoint in the end though IMO.
- Is the 3 week lead time between production and placement realistic?
- One of the big areas of talk is that The Times says the next gen iPhone will have a "radically different" appearance to the current device
Whether this means replaces, or creates another iPhone handset model waits to be clarified. The Times talks about "possibilities" and gives the example of a flip version, a sliding model. But then they say "as opposed to a touchscreen one". Surely Apple would still make the models touchscreen??
They then quote an unnamed "Asia-based analyst". Who thinks we're "ultimately going to see multiple versions". Which is unfortunately going back to analysts stating the bleeding obvious.
He makes the suggestion that different shapes would be more suited for different user types:
"One for customers who want it principally as a music and video device, which will be similar to the existing model, one for people who want to communicate - with the keyboard, and one for people who want it as a substitute for their laptop - that will let them browse the internet on a larger screen."
But wouldn't a clamshell or slider be going back in terms of design for Apple? The iPhone scores well due to it's screen size. To cut that down moves the handset towards the illthought previous Apple phone, and into the hands of Nokia et al. There are 1,000s of clamshells and sliders.
Personally, they might make a nanoiPhone, but i'd see them more moving towards adding an iTablet at the larger more expensive end, than seeing them add too many "not small enough to now use the internet on my iPhone" sized models.
Another point about distribution deals:
Ms Huberty suggests that the exclusivity was never truly found out - we didn't see the contracts, and the actual wording/lengths might have given Apple more wriggle room than first anticipated. A get out clause or special wording might = non exclusivity in current markets earlier, it might mean just analyst extrapolation from previous Apple statements in general about distribution in new markets.
(She said that many had suggested that Apple's exclusive contracts with the carriers would last for 5 years, whereas it was more likely they were for 2 years.) The interesting part of the timing of that if it was true was that 2 years would mean ending <edit:> *next* June for the US, but October next year for UK (rather than 2011 and 2012 respectively). This would mean that come Intel's foray into MID's mid 2009, Apple might be carrier agnostic to a greater extent in the US.
Ms Huberty : "Steve Jobs's (Apple's chief executive) end game is not to limit distribution and maximise carrier payments. It's to bring the best mobile platform to the market and then sell as many units as possible. There's lots of ways Apple can drive revenue from the iPhone that aren't part of the current model."
A lot to sink your teeth on this Friday
