Analyst Estimates 600,000-700,000 iPads Sold on Launch Day

[peterdevries]

Just go onto your country's Apple website, and check the front page. Assuming that the iPad is featured on the front page, if the iPad is coming it should say something like "Coming late April.".

No, there are many countries where the iPad is announced, but a date is still open. Late April has only been confirmed for a handful of countries.

e.g. The Netherlands, Belgium etc are countries where the iPad is announced, but where I expect it no sooner than august.

 

[ranReloaded]

Whatever the actual figures are...

...I think we can all agree that the iPad was NOT a flop

 

[Marcusjlang]

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but if no one has said it yet, this is all ********, and Macrumors should pull this. Here's the math (from Gizmodo comment)

Here's why I called ******** (now that I have some time to explain).

So, there are around 200 Apple stores and 675 Best buys in the US that carried iPads. The grand total rests around 875-900 stores carrying the iPad on launch day.

Ok... in order for 875 stores to sell 700,000 iPads, they would've had to have sold 800 iPads EACH.

Now, it was reported that each of those 675 best buys would have 15 iPads each on launch day (5 of each wifi model). That means that all the iPads in all the Best Buys in the US on launch day added up to 10,125 units. That means that each Apple store would've had to push out ~3450 iPads in 8 hours.

EACH Apple store alone would've had to sell ~431 iPads per hour or ~7 iPads per minute.

The only way for 700,000 iPads to be sold in ONE DAY would've been if all 675 Best Buys and ~200 Apple stores (Wikipedia says there are 222 in the US) had ~780 iPads each and sold ~1.6 iPads per minute for 8 hours straight.

So... ********

 

[darkplanets]

Exaggerated numbers? Definitely.

Within the realm of possibility? Yes.

I think it really depends on how you tabulate sales for "Launch Day"... including pre-orders it makes it pretty feasible.

 

[zacman]

Analysts also "expected" more than 10 million iPhones sold in Q4/09 but Apple sold way below that (around 8 million only).

 

[Xarthan]

Um, AAPL shares are currently trading at $236, so I am pretty sure AAPL shares will close "above $10" on Monday. If they don't, I will be a pretty pissed off investor. Do I think AAPL shares could close *up* by $10 (4.2%) on Monday, sure, maybe, but I won't be jumping out of a skyscraper window if they don't, and I only think that it is possible, but not very likely.

demo

I think he meant if they will close +10 dollars above current, if someone else hasn't stated this.

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but if no one has said it yet, this is all ********, and Macrumors should pull this. Here's the math (from Gizmodo comment)

Here's why I called ******** (now that I have some time to explain).

So, there are around 200 Apple stores and 675 Best buys in the US that carried iPads. The grand total rests around 875-900 stores carrying the iPad on launch day.

Ok... in order for 875 stores to sell 700,000 iPads, they would've had to have sold 800 iPads EACH.

Now, it was reported that each of those 675 best buys would have 15 iPads each on launch day (5 of each wifi model). That means that all the iPads in all the Best Buys in the US on launch day added up to 10,125 units. That means that each Apple store would've had to push out ~3450 iPads in 8 hours.

EACH Apple store alone would've had to sell ~431 iPads per hour or ~7 iPads per minute.

The only way for 700,000 iPads to be sold in ONE DAY would've been if all 675 Best Buys and ~200 Apple stores (Wikipedia says there are 222 in the US) had ~780 iPads each and sold ~1.6 iPads per minute for 8 hours straight.

So... ********

Did you factor in online sales?

 

[Angelchild]

I think it's unlikely. But because I think iPad sold are at about 800,000

Anyway I think that for sure next week, or at max at the end of the month we'll see the 1M mark.

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but if no one has said it yet, this is all ********, and Macrumors should pull this. Here's the math (from Gizmodo comment)

Here's why I called ******** (now that I have some time to explain).

So, there are....

And online selling? I mean...UPS?

 

[mackiwi]

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but if no one has said it yet, this is all ********, and Macrumors should pull this. Here's the math (from Gizmodo comment)

Here's why I called ******** (now that I have some time to explain).

So, there are around 200 Apple stores and 675 Best buys in the US that carried iPads. The grand total rests around 875-900 stores carrying the iPad on launch day.

Ok... in order for 875 stores to sell 700,000 iPads, they would've had to have sold 800 iPads EACH.

Now, it was reported that each of those 675 best buys would have 15 iPads each on launch day (5 of each wifi model). That means that all the iPads in all the Best Buys in the US on launch day added up to 10,125 units. That means that each Apple store would've had to push out ~3450 iPads in 8 hours.

EACH Apple store alone would've had to sell ~431 iPads per hour or ~7 iPads per minute.

The only way for 700,000 iPads to be sold in ONE DAY would've been if all 675 Best Buys and ~200 Apple stores (Wikipedia says there are 222 in the US) had ~780 iPads each and sold ~1.6 iPads per minute for 8 hours straight.

So... ********

LOL - fail for excluding online sales.

 

[rdowns]

Here's my take. Apple decided to release it yesterday because most of their stores are closed today for Easter. Provides them nice cover if sales figures aren't what they wanted/hoped for.

I was in an Apple Store at 10am yesterday and they were flying out the door. There were no lines at that time.

Went back to buy one (yeah, I have no resistance) at abiyt 8pm and the store was packed but iMacs were flying out the door.

 

[SirHaakon]

Jeebus...if true, that's incredible.

Well to be fair, there are about 500,000 on eBay right now...

 

[TripHop]

GPS In 3G Model Puts Me In That Second Sales Burst

I find it hard to understand why people want an iPad without a GPS module in it. I was able to get into the first set of recipients from MacConnection by placing an order for my 64GB 3G model with them today on the phone. Although there is nothing on their website about iPads for sale, they've been taking phone orders since Friday morning. I'm among the first group of 64 units that they've been promised from Apple by the end of the month. No sales tax. Free shipping.

Because the GPS just adds so much - like Maps and directions that work with your location. Basically only the 3G version of the iPad will have this.

I know that's what I'm saying. You must have misread my post. I am saying why would anyone buy the Wi-Fi only model? Makes no sense to me. I think people don't understand how powerful and useful the GPS part of an iPad will be. Or they just plain don't understand that there is no GPS in the Wi-Fi model. Or they haven't done their research and overlooked that fact which they will soon discover and regret buying the Wi-Fi only model.

 

[slackpacker]

I find it hard to understand why people want an iPad without a GPS module in it. I was able to get into the first set of recipients from MacConnection by placing an order for my 64GB 3G model with them today on the phone. Although there is nothing on their website about iPads for sale, they've been taking phone orders since Friday morning. I'm among the first group of 64 units that they've been promised from Apple by the end of the month. No sales tax. Free shipping.

Because the GPS just adds so much - like Maps and directions that work with your location. Basically only the 3G version of the iPad will have this.

 

[Marcusjlang]

The online sales were NOT that high. Get your head out of the clouds, this is all BS.

 

[aaarrrgggh]

I'll believe 1.5-2MM in April

I can appreciate that April will be a huge sales month, but I have trouble believing that Apple sold much over 400k WiFi iPads today. 5MM units for the June quarter though would really blow EPS estimates out of the water though!

Up or Down on Monday? History would tell us AAPL will be down $10/share... do people understand how big this is yet though?

 

[BeachChair]

LOL - fail for excluding online sales.

His analysis is still valid. Subtracting 300,000 online sales, the apple stores would have to sell between 1000-2000 ipads each. Sounds like an awful lot.

 

[ditzy]

The online sales were NOT that high. Get your head out of the clouds, this is all BS.

And exactly how do you know that. You missed out a large factor in your initial calculation. I'm not saying that they did sell 700,000, but your analysis doesn't prove otherwise.

 

[satty]

Just go onto your country's Apple website, and check the front page. Assuming that the iPad is featured on the front page, if the iPad is coming it should say something like "Coming late April.".

Interestingly, this is true for the Apple Australia Website, but not for the Apple New Zealand Website. Poor, poor Kiwis. Luckily, I work most of the time in Melbourne (not far from the Apple store in Chadstone ).

 

[Lesser Evets]

The online sales were NOT that high. Get your head out of the clouds, this is all BS.

This is all BS. Complete BS. It's speculation, so it is completely false.

But, that doesn't mean the iPad launched without sales. They had 120,000 or so pre-orders on the first day of online sales. It's been 3 weeks since, and I am sure that number has doubled (conservatively). The stores were packed, the media was wild, the fervor was undeniable. If all stores sold all they had, and then those stores did orders for when stock replenishes, it's fairly certain the iPad has sold well over 300,000 since it launched online sales in March.

We'll see what it comes to as real data is released in the next few days or weeks. One thing IS certain: these things sold and sold well. It certainly wasn't a flop of a product launch.

 

[Winni]

Why is it unlikely, this also includes like 2 weeks of preorders. The numbers will also get a bump when they start selling the 3g version. A lot of people are holding out for that one.

Let's wait and see how the numbers are in a couple of months. I expect the sales to rapidly slow down after the initial hype. Why? Because actually nobody needs such a device - at least nobody at which the current marketing is targeted.

The iPad could be a nice device for electronic data capture, but here the AppStore concept will quickly be in its way to success. Enter Android.

Apple's "Disney-fied" content censorship will be another nail in the iPad's coffin. The biggest German publishers have already made their deals with the competition - the "WePad" sponsored by Deutsche Telekom. The WePad is yet another Android powered device with more powerful hardware than the iPad and with more capabilities.

But basically, all those devices have one thing in common: They are located in a market niche of which nobody knows whether it will ever become successful or lucrative. Of course 700,000 people with enough petty cash bought a new toy. But this market will only become interesting if something like 40,000,000 of those devices will be sold in the US alone. And I doubt that Apple or anybody else will get there.

Personally, I bet my money on the first mass market compatible generation of wearable computers. And interpreting some of Apple's job ads correctly, Apple is already researching and developing in that area as well.

People don't want to carry around bigger devices than their mobile phones. They want them smaller and with more capabilities. Think Terminator-style, that's where the journey is headed.

 

[chatin]

Apple was supposedly stocked with 800k on launch day so no sellout. Probably a good thing there are some left for today.

 

[slackpacker]

Let's wait and see how the numbers are in a couple of months. I expect the sales to rapidly slow down after the initial hype. Why? Because actually nobody needs such a device - at least nobody at which the current marketing is targeted.

The iPad could be a nice device for electronic data capture, but here the AppStore concept will quickly be in its way to success. Enter Android.

Apple's "Disney-fied" content censorship will be another nail in the iPad's coffin. The biggest German publishers have already made their deals with the competition - the "WePad" sponsored by Deutsche Telekom. The WePad is yet another Android powered device with more powerful hardware than the iPad and with more capabilities.

But basically, all those devices have one thing in common: They are located in a market niche of which nobody knows whether it will ever become successful or lucrative. Of course 700,000 people with enough petty cash bought a new toy. But this market will only become interesting if something like 40,000,000 of those devices will be sold in the US alone. And I doubt that Apple or anybody else will get there.

Personally, I bet my money on the first mass market compatible generation of wearable computers. And interpreting some of Apple's job ads correctly, Apple is already researching and developing in that area as well.

People don't want to carry around bigger devices than their mobile phones. They want them smaller and with more capabilities. Think Terminator-style, that's where the journey is headed.

I love how people sit on their high horse and state "Nobody needs such device" Dude in your little world you can state that because in WinniLand you can. I have played with the Android products out there and they don't operate anywhere near as smooth or as fast as the iPad. The Android OS is garbage compared to the iPhone or iPad OS. Also WeePad sound so imaginative oh lets take thunder from Nintendo's brand while it also sounds like a bodily function. We have small devices now.... so what are you talking about..wearable computers have been talked about for 20 years and never took hold. There are plenty of them out there now for niche markets... if they were any good people would be using them....Rant over...

 

[stadlin]

people seem to forget that you could preorder it and have it shipped to your home.

that could be a huge number aswell! say 300,000 bought in stores and 300,000 delivered by UPS & Co.

 

[ugp]

I can see these numbers being accurate. Seems like a lot of the store were really busy and a lot of us were waiting on our shipments to come in here on the forums.

 

[slackpacker]

I haven't read the whole thread yet, but if no one has said it yet, this is all ********, and Macrumors should pull this. Here's the math (from Gizmodo comment)

Here's why I called ******** (now that I have some time to explain).

So, there are around 200 Apple stores and 675 Best buys in the US that carried iPads. The grand total rests around 875-900 stores carrying the iPad on launch day.

Ok... in order for 875 stores to sell 700,000 iPads, they would've had to have sold 800 iPads EACH.

Now, it was reported that each of those 675 best buys would have 15 iPads each on launch day (5 of each wifi model). That means that all the iPads in all the Best Buys in the US on launch day added up to 10,125 units. That means that each Apple store would've had to push out ~3450 iPads in 8 hours.

EACH Apple store alone would've had to sell ~431 iPads per hour or ~7 iPads per minute.

The only way for 700,000 iPads to be sold in ONE DAY would've been if all 675 Best Buys and ~200 Apple stores (Wikipedia says there are 222 in the US) had ~780 iPads each and sold ~1.6 iPads per minute for 8 hours straight.

So... ********

ANSWER = ONLINE SALES

 

[AtlasBoy]

Let's wait and see how the numbers are in a couple of months.

Yep lets wait and see because all you are doing is speculating. While I don't have any knowledge of the actual numbers, i BET YOU ARE WRONG. I don't think we'll have to wait very long to see that this is another HUGE success. MANY people wanted to see one before they bought, and they will be buying in droves now. Of the people I know who ordered them, most got the 3g so those are not even in the count yet. Oh, and don't forget that this is just the US. Once they are available in other countries, the numbers will sky rocket. But as you said, Let's wait and see.......