Yeah I watched people use mine most of the day. One friend had it for about an hour and a half when he suddenly handed it back. The confirmation screen for his iPad order was on the screen, lol.
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Analyst Estimates 600,000-700,000 iPads Sold on Launch Day
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Yeah I watched people use mine most of the day. One friend had it for about an hour and a half when he suddenly handed it back. The confirmation screen for his iPad order was on the screen, lol.
I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are that high, but remember that the presales are likely all put into that too.
The opening day is immaterial if sales plummet down the line, weeks and months after launch. The success of a product isn't built on its launch. That helps the hype, but people have to find practical uses for the iPad afterwards.
This is the question that will determine its longterm success:
Is the iPad merely a gadget that people lose interest in in a month or two, returning to their laptops and desktops, or does it change how they consume information?
Already I've heard frustration from friends with the keyboard because it's not easy for everyone to use it fully with their thumbs. People don't like the lack of multitasking, which could be fixed with an update. But even then, will it change how the people work or will the people just cast it aside or just use it as a portable movie player/internet browser.
If it's the latter then it may get steady sales but won't WOW the world or destroy the laptop.
The real test will be to see if it impacts netbook sales at all. Netbooks are expected to sell 70-85 million units this year and over 100 million next year. Can the iPad even be a substantial fraction of that annually?
Time will tell. If the sales taper off throughout the year then it becomes a niche product. Apple's going to make money one way or the other on it, but I find it difficult to give any kind of read based on Apple launches. There are enough Applephiles out there that will buy anything Apple makes (practically) that selling a million or two million units isn't surprising.
But if it begins to slow greatly at the back end of the year then the market would be limited.
The iPhone has continued to do well, but remember that that exists in a market that already had massive saturation. Cell phones are ubiquitous and the iPhone was not a huge leap in that market.
The iPad has to compete against netbooks and laptops that can do far more than it can. It might be very small, but if you want to do much beyond some emailing, app playing, browsing, etc then it won't help you out much.
And if you just want a book reader, there are better ones out there. Yes, they aren't color, but look at how light the Kindle is and it comes with 3G access included at no additional cost to you for downloading. And once you pay for a book you can always redownload it. I'm not sure if Apple will let you do that. They never have with any of the stuff in iTunes. I'm still amazed they don't get flack for that.
The opening day is immaterial if sales plummet down the line, weeks and months after launch. The success of a product isn't built on its launch. That helps the hype, but people have to find practical uses for the iPad afterwards.
This is the question that will determine its longterm success:
Is the iPad merely a gadget that people lose interest in in a month or two, returning to their laptops and desktops, or does it change how they consume information?
Already I've heard frustration from friends with the keyboard because it's not easy for everyone to use it fully with their thumbs. People don't like the lack of multitasking, which could be fixed with an update. But even then, will it change how the people work or will the people just cast it aside or just use it as a portable movie player/internet browser.
If it's the latter then it may get steady sales but won't WOW the world or destroy the laptop.
The real test will be to see if it impacts netbook sales at all. Netbooks are expected to sell 70-85 million units this year and over 100 million next year. Can the iPad even be a substantial fraction of that annually?
Time will tell. If the sales taper off throughout the year then it becomes a niche product. Apple's going to make money one way or the other on it, but I find it difficult to give any kind of read based on Apple launches. There are enough Applephiles out there that will buy anything Apple makes (practically) that selling a million or two million units isn't surprising.
But if it begins to slow greatly at the back end of the year then the market would be limited.
The iPhone has continued to do well, but remember that that exists in a market that already had massive saturation. Cell phones are ubiquitous and the iPhone was not a huge leap in that market.
The iPad has to compete against netbooks and laptops that can do far more than it can. It might be very small, but if you want to do much beyond some emailing, app playing, browsing, etc then it won't help you out much.
And if you just want a book reader, there are better ones out there. Yes, they aren't color, but look at how light the Kindle is and it comes with 3G access included at no additional cost to you for downloading. And once you pay for a book you can always redownload it. I'm not sure if Apple will let you do that. They never have with any of the stuff in iTunes. I'm still amazed they don't get flack for that.
It's not gonna get cheaper fast
I disagree. The conversations that I heard in the Apple Stores that I visited around the DFW implied that it won't drop in price much. The iPad was aggressively priced - without a subsidy model from a 3G carrier - and will be quite stable for quite some time.
The drop in iPhone v1.0 price that you indicate above is the same as model years for cars. When the hardtop convertible BMW M3 came out, the 2004 BMW M3 soft top convertible lost $4k in value over a few months (before that it was very stable). The initial drop from $599 to $399 was pretty surprising, but a valid business move, but it is important to realize that that is a subsidized price, where AT&T is paying Apple and thereby increasing the "real price" of the device. I think it was way mondo cool of Apple to give the "burned" customers $100 back. Not a typical business decision.
demo
I disagree. The conversations that I heard in the Apple Stores that I visited around the DFW implied that it won't drop in price much. The iPad was aggressively priced - without a subsidy model from a 3G carrier - and will be quite stable for quite some time.
The drop in iPhone v1.0 price that you indicate above is the same as model years for cars. When the hardtop convertible BMW M3 came out, the 2004 BMW M3 soft top convertible lost $4k in value over a few months (before that it was very stable). The initial drop from $599 to $399 was pretty surprising, but a valid business move, but it is important to realize that that is a subsidized price, where AT&T is paying Apple and thereby increasing the "real price" of the device. I think it was way mondo cool of Apple to give the "burned" customers $100 back. Not a typical business decision.
demo
NOT TO BE IGNORANT, but there are alot of stupid folks that don't know how great a device this is. To complain about a camera is stupid, the iPad is very good, and the applications are hot. I love it. Anyone stupid enough to hold up an ipad to take photos needs to get there head examined and real quick.
That's what they make iPhone's for, duh!
Anyway, it's easily to believe as I was in chicago, and the lines were round the block and hundreds of people were in line. To say, it's not possible, is ignorant.
Now I recognize that this is a very PERSONAL OPINIONATED stance; I'd just like to say that you're just as ignorant not to open your mind.
1. 3G without a camera means this device is more for consumption of software/media than interacting (the latter most likely will be for Games, University/iTunes media selection, and business collaboration tools last; with anything else in between.
2. A camera could bridge the gap with students in K12 on class trips to take photos to augment their research papers of the trip. I don't wish a world where students are stuck in class/home all year round. Also a camera or a 2nd camera would allow for a plethora of business collaboration tools to come to life. Think of iChat with a whiteboard that is completely immersive and interactive where others can see whom is doing a presentation (see their face) draw on the whiteboard (or type) and the presenter can switch to the site (where say escavation/building project/landscaping/etc) can be done, and draw over it with layers to see more than what meets the eye.
There is so much more with camera's that can be shared. You my friend may be stuck in the world where everyone else though camera's on cellphones was a gimmick and will never replace a digital camera. Yet for so many millions (that are not camera pro's/hobbyists) it has.
This is not a problem if the main use is for content consumption and not content creation. And one can argue that the size of the iPad inherently workds against certain types of content creation.
The 600k-700k estimate is now being widely reported (see HuffPo, CNBC), so expect Apple's stock to go sky high.
Jobs does it again.
Jobs does it again.
The Apple Store near me is a small one in a not too major metro area. Watching, it took about 30 seconds for an employee to sell an iPad using an EasyPay. There were at least 20 employees selling ipads when I was in there. So that was at least 20 ipads per minute being sold.
Now if a small mall store can knock them out that quickly, a bigger free-standing store can scale it even higher.
And even if you factor in only a small amount of online sales (which is how people who want a product right away without the hassle of dealing with lines at the store order them, so I'm not sure why you think this amount is so small), the numbers really don't seem so impossible.
The only way for 700,000 iPads to be sold in ONE DAY would've been if all 675 Best Buys and ~200 Apple stores (Wikipedia says there are 222 in the US) had ~780 iPads each and sold ~1.6 iPads per minute for 8 hours straight.
Comments:
A: You didn't take in online sales which were giant. 100,000 on day one, and like triple that over the rest of the time once you allow time for people to have paydays etc.
B: Most Best Buy's / Apple Stores were open for more than 8 hours.
C: Most Best Buy's got a lot more than 15. At my local Best Buy they had sold over 50 of the 16 gig, and had 8 and 13 of the next two sizes.
I'm selling my Nook and gettin' me an ipad! When I got a Nook for Christmas it was because I never thought Apple could hit a price point like this.
Comments:
A: You didn't take in online sales which were giant. 100,000 on day one, and like triple that over the rest of the time once you allow time for people to have paydays etc.
B: Most Best Buy's / Apple Stores were open for more than 8 hours.
C: Most Best Buy's got a lot more than 15. At my local Best Buy they had sold over 50 of the 16 gig, and had 8 and 13 of the next two sizes.
I'm selling my Nook and gettin' me an ipad! When I got a Nook for Christmas it was because I never thought Apple could hit a price point like this.
Katherine Huberty of Morgan Stanley estimates that one million iPad sales add $0.25 to Apple's earnings per share. I'm lazy, but I am going to claim that a P/E ratio of 20 is "about right" for Apple. (It does bounce around, has been higher, has been lower, and will be affected by the change in generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP). I still like P/E of 20 as an easy number to work with.
One million iPads sold represent a $5 increase in share price. So realistically, in the long term, launch sales represent a $3 increase in share price. Of course, I hope that Apple will sell even more iPads over the long term.
But let's be rational, and not exuberant.
demo
NOT TO BE IGNORANT, but there are alot of stupid folks that don't know how great a device this is. To complain about a camera is stupid, the iPad is very good, and the applications are hot. I love it. Anyone stupid enough to hold up an ipad to take photos needs to get there head examined and real quick
That's what they make iPhone's for, duh!
Anyway, it's easily to believe as I was in chicago, and the lines were round the block and hundreds of people were in line. To say, it's not possible, is ignorant.
There are a lot of apps you cant use without a camera , it is just another input device that make ipad smarter. It got the skin (touch) eyes would be nice (camera).
Can somebody please explain why the naysayers won't give up? When the iPad was first announced they said nobody would buy. Shortly after the announcement developers jumped all over this device to make iPad specific apps. Then came the pre-orders with astounding numbers.
Now launch day is estimated to have sold over 500k and this for the WiFi model only. What's wrong with these people? How much longer are they going to keep on trashing the iPad? Do the naysayers actually want it to fail? I mean seriously. Are these people actually customers of Apple at all? Something's not right here. What is it going to take for them to lay off?
Now launch day is estimated to have sold over 500k and this for the WiFi model only. What's wrong with these people? How much longer are they going to keep on trashing the iPad? Do the naysayers actually want it to fail? I mean seriously. Are these people actually customers of Apple at all? Something's not right here. What is it going to take for them to lay off?
At my local best buy store the stock of IPads was quite large. I walked in expecting the 15 units that were initially said to be there. When I got to the apple section there were a ton of people checking the new toys out.
Interestingly enough we had an apple rep in the store too. She had been sent up from cupertino to our store to assist day 1 sales. There were also about 80 to maybe 100 ipads at our store which made it a lot easier for me to get out with one. I live about 2.5 hours away from the nearest apple store too so that may be why it was this way.
Interestingly enough we had an apple rep in the store too. She had been sent up from cupertino to our store to assist day 1 sales. There were also about 80 to maybe 100 ipads at our store which made it a lot easier for me to get out with one. I live about 2.5 hours away from the nearest apple store too so that may be why it was this way.
Katherine Huberty of Morgan Stanley estimates that one million iPad sales add $0.25 to Apple's earnings per share. I'm lazy, but I am going to claim that a P/E ratio of 20 is "about right" for Apple. (It does bounce around, has been higher, has been lower, and will be affected by the change in generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP). I still like P/E of 20 as an easy number to work with.
One million iPads sold represent a $5 increase in share price. So realistically, in the long term, launch sales represent a $3 increase in share price. Of course, I hope that Apple will sell even more iPads over the long term.
But let's be rational, and not exuberant.
demo
Damn AAPL stockholders for being so calculating, Royal Bank shares tripled just because they didn't go bankrupt
Apple Stores Closed on Easter Sunday in Chicago???
Well...Today I went to the Apple Store to purchase an iPad, but guess what...Closed for Easter Sunday. Millions of $$$'s in lost sales in Chicago as I saw many others trying to see if the store was going to open. Makes me think differently about getting one now. I might just wait for updated iPads. Stupid move to launch on a Holiday weekend!!!
Well...Today I went to the Apple Store to purchase an iPad, but guess what...Closed for Easter Sunday. Millions of $$$'s in lost sales in Chicago as I saw many others trying to see if the store was going to open. Makes me think differently about getting one now. I might just wait for updated iPads. Stupid move to launch on a Holiday weekend!!!
Its the portability issue that will really make or break.
Its too big for a pocket, so unless you get a small "steal me" aluminium attache case you will probably still need to use a briefcase/laptop to take it to your meetings in the city.
The iphone is interesting because it isn't really 'yours' - its a lump if eletrickery with the "valuable" data being held remotely - on a desktop or increasingly in the cloud. That is what reassured me about the Palm series - if you lost it you only lost cash the irreplaceable data was safe.
Maybe its business future is more like a taxi than private limo?
Maybe in the future you will pick a blank iPad from a stack at your meeting when you arrive, key in a login and get your data from the cloud?
I do believe this is the gamechanger - I am just not sure we have estimated just how it will change the game....
(I am giddy with excitement about the future, but the next apple product I buy will have a skype front camera.)
Apple wouldn't produce something so unsymetrical, reckon that is the new Zune design - with its worldbeating 'marketplac'
Its too big for a pocket, so unless you get a small "steal me" aluminium attache case you will probably still need to use a briefcase/laptop to take it to your meetings in the city.
The iphone is interesting because it isn't really 'yours' - its a lump if eletrickery with the "valuable" data being held remotely - on a desktop or increasingly in the cloud. That is what reassured me about the Palm series - if you lost it you only lost cash the irreplaceable data was safe.
Maybe its business future is more like a taxi than private limo?
Maybe in the future you will pick a blank iPad from a stack at your meeting when you arrive, key in a login and get your data from the cloud?
I do believe this is the gamechanger - I am just not sure we have estimated just how it will change the game....
(I am giddy with excitement about the future, but the next apple product I buy will have a skype front camera.)
Apple wouldn't produce something so unsymetrical, reckon that is the new Zune design - with its worldbeating 'marketplac'
Love my new iPad. It is as big of a revolution in my personal life as the iPhone was. Considering how often my wife and I are fighting over it just in the first 24 hrs, I see myself buying another one soon.
For all those thinking it is just a glorified iPod Touch--you are somewhat right. It is currently just an iPhone/iPod Touch with a much larger screen. However that increased screen size is like night and day. The iPad is useful in many scenarios where the iPhone isn't. For many of the things I use my Macbook for, the iPad just replaced it and resulted in a much better user experience. Much, much better. Night and day difference. It may not be right for everyone, but you would have to pry my iPad from my cold dead hands.
For all those thinking it is just a glorified iPod Touch--you are somewhat right. It is currently just an iPhone/iPod Touch with a much larger screen. However that increased screen size is like night and day. The iPad is useful in many scenarios where the iPhone isn't. For many of the things I use my Macbook for, the iPad just replaced it and resulted in a much better user experience. Much, much better. Night and day difference. It may not be right for everyone, but you would have to pry my iPad from my cold dead hands.
Only the media is hyping up this.....giant iphone. People with logic will disregard the ipad almost completely. Half the price of it gets you a netbook and a full functioning operating system with ZERO limitations.
Unlikely because I think it's too limited (albeit well-executed) a device to have a very broad appeal and anything nearing 700K in the first day would indicate a much broader appeal than I would ever have guessed. It really feels like another AppleTV to me--a niche thing that Apple can grow, make more appealing down the road.
Having said all that, I'll also say I'm always open to the possibility that I am wrong.
Hmm...it just SO doesn't feel to me like another Apple TV. Also, as far as the limited appeal, I'm sure that you've seen online reviews. Even Engadget review acknowledged the importance of the iPad. We also need to consider that we're looking at another new product line from the company that to many millions of customers worldwide delivered their iPods and iPhones. They have a lot of credibility with those customers and we all want something newer and better to help us enjoy ourselves and to pursue our interests. And here it is....
As far as I know, all netbooks ship with either Windows or linux, and none ship with a full functioning operating system.
You obviously haven't used one. Nice idea, but from my personal experience it is light years away from reality. The iPad is the best purchase I have ever made in a gadget, followed only by the iPhone. The first 24hrs of use were amazing. The difference for me is akin to having a dishwasher vs doing dishes by hand. Sure I'm capable of standing over the sink, but why on earth would I want to given a choice.
You would change your mind about buying one just because the store was closed on Easter Sunday, a religious holiday that people would like to take off to spend with their families? OKAY.
now we have to start grooming our nosehairs for the webcam version
LOL!
I love your post
I do agree but somedays I just love sitting in front of my PC and re-installing Windows and possibly a dozen apps Is that the same as standing over a sink?LOL!
I carry a small briefcase that holds some folders and my MBP. It will be quite the relief to leave the MBP on my desk and replace it in that briefcase with an iPad. Almost all the execs at our company are ordering an iPad, even the PC users. No one wants to lug around a notebook or a tiny netbook. We are waiting for the 3G version to arrive. Apple will sell millions of these things.
I have joked around that two 3 foot by 3 foot case of catalogs could be replaced by the iPad... Many companies send their updates as PDF's that we print off...
Just to find away to secure an iPad as our counter catalog as our price look-up
But in the end we should have been that way already...
No reason that we at my shop need our own iPad's...
Companies need to see that live updates regardless of the iPad is a good thing. No longer trying to look thru endless catalogs to find the right product.
My lament is that is that why did it take the iPad to look at a paperless business model?
Although I'm still in the doubters camp as far as these numbers go, I will also point out that there were numerous articles around about businesses interested in ordering large numbers of iPads (although none of that was ever confirmed so who knows.) It is entirely possible that hundreds or thousands of iPads could have been sold in these deals which would reduce the number each store needed to sell.