I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are that high, but remember that the presales are likely all put into that too.
The opening day is immaterial if sales plummet down the line, weeks and months after launch. The success of a product isn't built on its launch. That helps the hype, but people have to find practical uses for the iPad afterwards.
This is the question that will determine its longterm success:
Is the iPad merely a gadget that people lose interest in in a month or two, returning to their laptops and desktops, or does it change how they consume information?
Already I've heard frustration from friends with the keyboard because it's not easy for everyone to use it fully with their thumbs. People don't like the lack of multitasking, which could be fixed with an update. But even then, will it change how the people work or will the people just cast it aside or just use it as a portable movie player/internet browser.
If it's the latter then it may get steady sales but won't WOW the world or destroy the laptop.
The real test will be to see if it impacts netbook sales at all. Netbooks are expected to sell 70-85 million units this year and over 100 million next year. Can the iPad even be a substantial fraction of that annually?
Time will tell. If the sales taper off throughout the year then it becomes a niche product. Apple's going to make money one way or the other on it, but I find it difficult to give any kind of read based on Apple launches. There are enough Applephiles out there that will buy anything Apple makes (practically) that selling a million or two million units isn't surprising.
But if it begins to slow greatly at the back end of the year then the market would be limited.
The iPhone has continued to do well, but remember that that exists in a market that already had massive saturation. Cell phones are ubiquitous and the iPhone was not a huge leap in that market.
The iPad has to compete against netbooks and laptops that can do far more than it can. It might be very small, but if you want to do much beyond some emailing, app playing, browsing, etc then it won't help you out much.
Some very thoughtful points made. I contemplated the iPad ever so briefly, but with an iPod Touch, MBP and Kindle - it really had to be something revolutionary to convince me.
This seems really unlikely. Anyone have any idea how accurate Gene Munster's sales estimates have historically been?
I tend to also think this number is aggressive without much basis for the figure.
Typically the analysts are ridiculed and mocked on this board, but suddenly when it's favorable data no one appears to question their speculation or their motivations.