Analyst Estimates 600,000-700,000 iPads Sold on Launch Day

[seedster2]

I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are that high, but remember that the presales are likely all put into that too.

The opening day is immaterial if sales plummet down the line, weeks and months after launch. The success of a product isn't built on its launch. That helps the hype, but people have to find practical uses for the iPad afterwards.

This is the question that will determine its longterm success:

Is the iPad merely a gadget that people lose interest in in a month or two, returning to their laptops and desktops, or does it change how they consume information?

Already I've heard frustration from friends with the keyboard because it's not easy for everyone to use it fully with their thumbs. People don't like the lack of multitasking, which could be fixed with an update. But even then, will it change how the people work or will the people just cast it aside or just use it as a portable movie player/internet browser.

If it's the latter then it may get steady sales but won't WOW the world or destroy the laptop.

The real test will be to see if it impacts netbook sales at all. Netbooks are expected to sell 70-85 million units this year and over 100 million next year. Can the iPad even be a substantial fraction of that annually?

Time will tell. If the sales taper off throughout the year then it becomes a niche product. Apple's going to make money one way or the other on it, but I find it difficult to give any kind of read based on Apple launches. There are enough Applephiles out there that will buy anything Apple makes (practically) that selling a million or two million units isn't surprising.

But if it begins to slow greatly at the back end of the year then the market would be limited.

The iPhone has continued to do well, but remember that that exists in a market that already had massive saturation. Cell phones are ubiquitous and the iPhone was not a huge leap in that market.

The iPad has to compete against netbooks and laptops that can do far more than it can. It might be very small, but if you want to do much beyond some emailing, app playing, browsing, etc then it won't help you out much.

Some very thoughtful points made. I contemplated the iPad ever so briefly, but with an iPod Touch, MBP and Kindle - it really had to be something revolutionary to convince me.

This seems really unlikely. Anyone have any idea how accurate Gene Munster's sales estimates have historically been?

I tend to also think this number is aggressive without much basis for the figure.

Typically the analysts are ridiculed and mocked on this board, but suddenly when it's favorable data no one appears to question their speculation or their motivations.

 

[dontmatter]

The only reason not to cite info on where you got your number from is that you don't have any/it is clearly insufficient.

I think this is more headline grabbing speculation than anything else - how would anyone but apple (and maybe UPS) know how many ipads were ordered online? How would you put together data from around the country in a sophisticated way in a day?

I don't think it's false, but I don't think anybody really knows what is true.

Anyway, opening day sales are a measure of hype, not product quality or success.

Time will tell, for sure.

 

[epo]

The online sales were NOT that high. Get your head out of the clouds, this is all BS.

First you try to trash an (admittedly arbitrary) set of estimates neglecting to factor in online sales and next you pretend to know the level of online sales but neglect to say what you thought the numbers were. Sloppy.

However, I for one can't agree with you that your posts are "all BS". Careless certainly, but not that bad, and redeemed by their amusement vallue.

 

[JohnnyGo]

Hype v. reality

Only the media is hyping up this.....giant iphone. People with logic will disregard the ipad almost completely. Half the price of it gets you a netbook and a full functioning operating system with ZERO limitations.

Let's summarize ALL reviews for the literacy impaired:
a) iPad HAS lived up to the hype ("it's a game changer")
b) Reading books on iBook compares favorably under certain conditions to Kindle use
c) At 1.5 lbs, it is much lighter than netbooks but still feels heavy
d) The screen is gorgeous
e) Keyboard is better than anticipated
f) Videos all over the place including NETFLIX, ABC Player, and SlingPlayer (still to be released). Hulu seems to be working on an iPad app as well
g) It is fast... screaming fast !
h) On the last count, more than 2,500 apps designed/optimized for iPad (but this number is going to grow exponentially over the next 60-90 days)

I do believe that initial sales prediction for pre-orders (not counting pick-up reservations) had run into 200-250k. Those orders were not necessarily for one iPad (although most were). Reservations were predicted to be a similar amount (200k). If you add another similar amount (200k) of Apple fans that wanted to "touch" the iPad on day one, you have incredibly a 600-700k estimate.

But again, it is just an estimate. The important thing is that it HAS lived up to the hype and OS 4.0 upgrade will make it so much better (multitasking, single mail inbox, etc)

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Love my new iPad. It is as big of a revolution in my personal life as the iPhone was. Considering how often my wife and I are fighting over it just in the first 24 hrs, I see myself buying another one soon.

For all those thinking it is just a glorified iPod Touch--you are somewhat right. It is currently just an iPhone/iPod Touch with a much larger screen. However that increased screen size is like night and day. The iPad is useful in many scenarios where the iPhone isn't. For many of the things I use my Macbook for, the iPad just replaced it and resulted in a much better user experience. Much, much better. Night and day difference. It may not be right for everyone, but you would have to pry my iPad from my cold dead hands.

I'm interested in how you'll feel in a month or two. If you still love it and find it such a great product then it could be huge if others feel the same way.

The lack of a physical keyboard is still a huge issue. You can add a keyboard, but then it becomes far clumsier than a laptop that has the handy folding design. For portable web surfing if will do the job, but so will so many cell phones now and they are far more portable. I can also email on my cell phone and it has a full physical qwerty keyboard.

If too many people find its abilities limited for the pricepoint then mass adoption becomes a problem and sales will likely start out strong and then turn sluggish.

Mossberg thinks this could be a laptop killer, but many predicted AppleTV to be a DVD killer. It hasn't been.

And if you don't want to buy movies from iTunes, the iPad gives you the same difficulty in converting your DVDs as the iPod does. I think one of the reasons that movie sales have never really taken off in the iTunes Store is that you're stuck using Apple's hardware to watch this stuff. A DVD or Blu-Ray give you portability. At least many come with digital copies now, but even if they don't, movies and TV shows in iTunes aren't portable.

That's where accessing something like Hulu comes in, but even then it really only is practical if you have consistent access. If you're in an area where AT&T's signal shifts a lot between 3G and EDGE (and I've had friends I've met at restaurants and movie theaters where the 3G will be there one second and then it'll dip to EDGE) then even that is impractical. Wireless networks are more common now, but not ubiquitous in the public sphere. And if you're at home and you have the option, you're going to watch the movie on the 40 or 50" LCD with the audio system going. It would work well on an airplane for video you preload, though a laptop with a 300GB HDD would have much more storage.

And despite the claim by some that it could be a laptop killer, Apple has no interest to make it one. Apple is HUGE into laptop sales. They don't want to cannibalize the MacBook and MacBook Pro market. They want to just add people into the market. So I'm not even sure they'll ever introduce anything near full functionality into the iPad to ensure the MacBook doesn't take a hit.

Apple has always tried to make sure the lower end products don't quite measure up to things on the upper end. So the iPad won't see full fledged version of OS X and if they introduce multi-tasking, my bet is that it will be limited like MS was originally going to do for Win7 Starter until netbook manufacturers complained. There's no multiple manufacturers here to complain to the OS maker, so Apple can limit you to opening three things at once if they want to.

I think that's ultimately where the multi-tasking will go on the iPad. You may have three programs running simultaneously.

If they do that then other tablets that are more fully functional could catch up quickly. The HP Slate has to be Apple's biggest worry, running Windows 7 and using an Intel Atom. It essentially is a netbook, but it can run MS Word, Powerpoint, etc. It will be able to handle Flash.

The iPhone succeeded because it offered MORE than other phones. The AppStore is great, but can it compete against all the modern and legacy PC apps that something like the Slate can run? If the iPad could run Mac apps then it would be a plus, but using the iPhone OS could hurt it in the end.

 

[dernhelm]

Let's summarize ALL reviews for the literacy impaired:
a) iPad HAS lived up to the hype ("it's a game changer")
b) Reading books on iBook compares favorably under certain conditions to Kindle use
c) At 1.5 lbs, it is much lighter than netbooks but still feels heavy
d) The screen is gorgeous
e) Keyboard is better than anticipated
f) Videos all over the place including NETFLIX, ABC Player, and SlingPlayer (still to be released). Hulu seems to be working on an iPad app as well
g) It is fast... screaming fast !
h) On the last count, more than 2,500 apps designed/optimized for iPad (but this number is going to grow exponentially over the next 60-90 days)

I do believe that initial sales prediction for pre-orders (not counting pick-up reservations) had run into 200-250k. Those orders were not necessarily for one iPad (although most were). Reservations were predicted to be a similar amount (200k). If you add another similar amount (200k) of Apple fans that wanted to "touch" the iPad on day one, you have incredibly a 600-700k estimate.

But again, it is just an estimate. The important thing is that it HAS lived up to the hype and OS 4.0 upgrade will make it so much better (multitasking, single mail inbox, etc)

But.... but.....

It isn't the right screen resolution - so it can't actually look nice!
It doesn't even have the fastest ARM processor available - so it can't be fast enough!
It doesn't have a camera - so it can't be a game changer!
Everyone knows you can't type on a tablet screen - so the keyboard MUST suck!
It doesn't play flash - so it's impossible for it to have enough web site content to be useful!
It's a closed eco-system controlled by the most EVIL corporation in the history of the world, so there can't be people developing applications for it that anyone would actually want!

Don't you people understand? I could see all of this well before it even came out! All 700,000 of you lemming fanbois have just been taken!

What? You mean I should try to use one? Nah - I'd rather hate from over here.

/SARCASM

 

[jaykk]

As far as I know, all netbooks ship with either Windows or linux, and none ship with a full functioning operating system.

Very well said.

 

[richpjr]

I'm not a hater and plan on picking up a 3G model, but that number seems like an incredibly optimistic number - by hundreds of thousands.

 

[kallisti]

Some very thoughtful points made. I contemplated the iPad ever so briefly, but with an iPod Touch, MBP and Kindle - it really had to be something revolutionary to convince me.

Wife has a Kindle. Both of us have an iPhone. Have a MacBook and a MacPro in the house. iPad will replace the MacBook except for giving presentations and possibly preparing them. While we both appreciate the uses of the iPhone on the go (with its small size and portability), there are times that the small screen size becomes a limiting issue in use at home. iPad fixes that. The iPad is infinitely better for web browsing than the iPhone. It is also better than the laptop. Browsing on the couch or in bed is a minor PITA with the laptop--doable but the form factor of the device gets in the way.

We both like the iPad over the Kindle for reading. Still somewhat early obviously, but I was up most of the night reading on the iPad without any eyestrain. As long as we only have one iPad we will be using both. Once I get another, the Kindle will be retired.

I'm interested in how you'll feel in a month or two.

Valid point. Hasn't even been 48 hrs. However, I've been using an iPhone since initial release. I'm aware of what the platform is capable. The only real quibbles I've had with the iPhone relate to its small screen size. The iPad just fixed that. My wife and I currently use/share an iPhone, MacBook, or Kindle nightly while we hang out in bed. Now one of us will be using the iPad instead of one of those devices. For what we use it for at those times, it is better than any of them. I don't see that changing in time. For hanging out at home on the couch, in bed, or on the deck the iPad beats every other consumer electronic device or computer I own. For serious work it can't beat a computer--but then neither does a laptop. It isn't meant to replace my MacPro. For reading I like it more than a Kindle. For surfing the web it has a better form factor than my MacBook. For games it is more portable than my PS3.

I can't argue if it doesn't work for you in its current iteration and feature set. It works beautifully for my needs though. Even if it ends up being a commercial flop, I'm as happy as a kid in a candy store. This is *exactly* what I personally wanted/needed. I've had webcams available for years and years (either external or build into my machines). Never used them in all that time. Don't plan on ever using them. I have Flash turned off on all my machines. None of the sites I frequent require it for anything other than ads. Don't need a USB port. I appreciate the concerns of posters who feel they need all this stuff, but it doesn't apply to me--and I'd argue it isn't relevant for the vast majority out there either. Time will tell. Either it will sell as is, or the market will clamor for the "missing features" and they will be incorporated.

 

[Marcusjlang]

Um, pre-orders were the bulk of sales.

Pre-orders weren't sold on day one.

God, get your head out of the clouds. There's no way more were sold online on day one anyways, if you are going to buy it on day one, you would want it as fast as possible.

The numbers are crap.

 

[rdowns]

Pre-orders weren't sold on day one.

God, get your head out of the clouds. There's no way more were sold online on day one anyways, if you are going to buy it on day one, you would want it as fast as possible.

The numbers are crap.

Perhaps you should read the original article before opening your mouth.


Piper Jaffray Senior Research Analyst, Gene Munster, on Saturday said he believes Apple sold between 600-700 thousand iPads on the first day. This includes the pre-orders that would have been coming in since March 12.

These new sales predictions are well above the 200-300 thousand units Munster previously expected Apple to sell on the first day.

Munster said his team counted 730 people at Apple’s 5th Ave. store this morning. To compare to previous launches at the same location, there were 350 people in line for the iPhone 3GS and 540 for the iPhone 3G launch.

 

[kallisti]

Pre-orders weren't sold on day one.

God, get your head out of the clouds. There's no way more were sold online on day one anyways, if you are going to buy it on day one, you would want it as fast as possible.

The numbers are crap.

No, but pre-orders may end up figured into the sales figures reported for the first weekend. Have to wait and see. Different argument as to whether that is "fair" or not, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were reported that way.

 

[hazmatzak]

You can add a keyboard, but then it becomes far clumsier than a laptop that has the handy folding design. For portable web surfing if will do the job, but so will so many cell phones now and they are far more portable.

The small screen on your cell phone makes it far clumsier to surf the web. The size and weight of the iPad makes it far more portable than a laptop.

 

[ungraphic]

As far as I know, all netbooks ship with either Windows or linux, and none ship with a full functioning operating system.

Oh god, here we go again.

 

[Droid13]

Dear oh dear oh dear...

As far as I know, all netbooks ship with either Windows or linux, and none ship with a full functioning operating system.

Both operating systems mentioned are quite full and quite functional lol netbooks are very good at what they're for - surfing, email and the occasional document.

 

[edever]

Only the media is hyping up this.....giant iphone. People with logic will disregard the ipad almost completely. Half the price of it gets you a netbook and a full functioning operating system with ZERO limitations.

Your commentary falls flat.

The device clearly isn't for you, but your lack of vision doesn't say anything about the usefulness of the device....or about how many have been sold thus far.

 

[cmaier]

Both operating systems mentioned are quite full and quite functional lol netbooks are very good at what they're for - surfing, email and the occasional document.

They don't seem functional to me. I don't seem to be able to get my work done with them without having to spend too much of my time tweaking things to keep them running.

 

[BorderSt]

Apple Stores Closed on Easter Sunday

You would change your mind about buying one just because the store was closed on Easter Sunday, a religious holiday that people would like to take off to spend with their families? OKAY.

Hmmm...Thanksgiving and Christmas (not to mention other religious holidays that aren't Christian) never stopped retail stores from making $$$, so why would this day be any different? I guess the Christian faith gets precedence when it comes to spending time with family!

 

[HLdan]

Hmmm...Thanksgiving and Christmas (not to mention other religious holidays that aren't Christian) never stopped retail stores from making $$$, so why would this day be any different? I guess the Christian faith gets precedence when it comes to spending time with family!

Um, the Apple retail stores have never been open on Thanksgiving or Christmas, at least in the U.S. Your point?

My point was there's no reason for the other guy I was quoting to put off buying just because he couldn't get it today on Easter. Is there something wrong with picking it up on Monday?

 

[dopipod]

Stop buying now!

Can you people just stop buying the ipad so enthusiastically, at this rate we will be looking at a later launch here in the UK.
Listen to the haters for a change, will ya?

 

[marksman]

Only the media is hyping up this.....giant iphone. People with logic will disregard the ipad almost completely. Half the price of it gets you a netbook and a full functioning operating system with ZERO limitations.

Yeah the negative factor in that equation is the netbook though. That is worth like negative $350 dollars.

So the net result is the iPad is cheaper.

 

[Droid13]

Fair enough

They don't seem functional to me. I don't seem to be able to get my work done with them without having to spend too much of my time tweaking things to keep them running.

To be fair I had to do a bit of tweaking to get my Dell Mini to work as I wanted it to, but that was mostly hardware - putting in a RunCore 64Gb SSD was the main thing. The unit itself is pretty well built, nice and light, though the keyboard is a touch on the small side (but then it isn't meant for serious word processing).

On the software front, haven't had much bother - XP has been stable enough and I am able to run virus/malware protection, Firefox and the full Office '07 suite including Outlook - as long as I am not trying to edit more than about three documents simultaneously things work pretty smoothly. With an external optical drive it can handle a DVD well enough, the only issues I have noticed are with streaming video content eg iPlayer or Youtube - for some reason it cannot handle that smoothly.

All in all, I find my personal XP experience on a netbook to have been quite satisfactory - wouldn't sing and dance about it, but it is functional. I have used Linux on other folks' netbooks and it has been pretty good too, though I didn't push their machines too much.

Having said all that, we all have different requirements and perhaps yours are best met by something more substantial than stripped-down hardware and a stripped down OS. What I need my netbook to do is pretty basic really - surf, check email/attachments, type the occasional document or watch the occasional video via iTunes. I bought it as a substitute for my MacBook for when it needed repairs, it was quite an interesting experience to work as effectively with something that cost £200 as with something that cost £1000.

The one device that stops me carrying my netbook everywhere is, funnily enough, my iPhone. As for the iPad, I cannot see how I can make any practical use of it - I already have a smartphone for on-the-go use and my pick of 3 different computers for when the phone isn't enough.

As I said earlier, we all have our requirements - mine are pretty basic.

 

[DeepIn2U]

Katherine Huberty of Morgan Stanley estimates that one million iPad sales add $0.25 to Apple's earnings per share. I'm lazy, but I am going to claim that a P/E ratio of 20 is "about right" for Apple. (It does bounce around, has been higher, has been lower, and will be affected by the change in generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP). I still like P/E of 20 as an easy number to work with.

One million iPads sold represent a $5 increase in share price. So realistically, in the long term, launch sales represent a $3 increase in share price. Of course, I hope that Apple will sell even more iPads over the long term.

But let's be rational, and not exuberant.

demo

you DO realize that stock price is not solely affected on current release product sales alone; that $3 estimate can jump to $10 stock increase just on Application availability that is in such HIGH demand that current competitors do NOT have available.

Also GAAP is G.A.A.P. = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, not Practices. Also note that in 2011 GAAP will not be relied upon and will be super-seeded. A more international standard is being proposed and used currently in a few European countries.

 

[rwilliams]

Mossberg thinks this could be a laptop killer, but many predicted AppleTV to be a DVD killer. It hasn't been.

And despite the claim by some that it could be a laptop killer, Apple has no interest to make it one. Apple is HUGE into laptop sales. They don't want to cannibalize the MacBook and MacBook Pro market. They want to just add people into the market. So I'm not even sure they'll ever introduce anything near full functionality into the iPad to ensure the MacBook doesn't take a hit.

I totally agree. Apple will not cannibalize their own laptop market, so they'll withhold some key functionality from the iPad. The thing can't even print directly to a printer without some middleman software and still doesn't have transparent access to the file system. The iPad will be a big success for people whose primary need is to CONSUME. For those that still PRODUCE, they're going to need more powerful machines and software to do just that. A "laptop killer" (why must everything be a "killer"?) this is not. This is an entirely different market.

 

[cmaier]

I totally agree. Apple will not cannibalize their own laptop market, so they'll withhold some key functionality from the iPad. The thing can't even print directly to a printer without some middleman software and still doesn't have transparent access to the file system. The iPad will be a big success for people whose primary need is to CONSUME. For those that still PRODUCE, they're going to need more powerful machines and software to do just that. A "laptop killer" (why must everything be a "killer"?) this is not. This is an entirely different market.

Nonsense. Steve Jobs, himself, has said he'd rather cannibalize Apple's existing sales than let someone else do it. iPhone cannibalizes iPods, etc.