Is the whole world going to be expected to do real work and produce content on the iPad in a few years?
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Analyst Estimates 600,000-700,000 iPads Sold on Launch Day
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Is the whole world going to be expected to do real work and produce content on the iPad in a few years?
No, but how does that follow from what I said?
iPad will obviously cannibalize some MB and MBA sales (and perhaps netbook sales). And SJ no doubt prefers that scenario than the idea of losing those sales to Asus.
Perhaps cannibalize wasn't the best term to use there. Mossberg thinks the iPad could kill off laptops. That's nonsense. There are so many things that laptops do better than the iPad does and Apple knows that. This was never designed, in my opinion, to kill off their own laptop market. I think this is aimed at an entirely different segment of the population, though there is bound to be some overlap.
They better put a hell of a lot more memory and processing power into this thing then. Besides, the idea of writing programs, developing websites, and serious photo editing on the iPad seems unlikely.
Absolutely 100% on target. Well done. The iPad is about nothing but "consumption". It will not replace a Laptop, Period. It will be the device that the most consuming nation on the planet "eats digitally". Others will then follow.
One year from now the entire digital ecosystem will be changed by this product. I have no need for one yet, but Rev.B will be tough to hold back.
Possibly. We have to rethink what we feel is "real work & produce content". Media of course not. Will a miniature XCode be available, not likely. However, entering practice ledgers, year end tax assessments for submittal (personal & small business), using RFID for tracking products in a Grocery/Department store, product shipping lists, cargo lists ... and yes stock brokers doing massive tradings (which btw, has been done on Nasdaq for several years on tablets WinCE models).
Well not ALL products appeal to all consumers/business by just 1 company. Today's age a smart leadership and product line will fit the gaps or create the niche (if profitable) to fill those gaps. iPhone does just about everything iPod Touch does ... but most people don't wish to take their iphone to the gym to work out with. iPad will serve huge markets like elderly care ... and possibly even be featured into studies where specific medical apps for cerebral training along with hand-eye coordination will be utilized.
Only if this old story comes to pass.
When you can connect two 27" monitors to an Ipad, and a few terabytes of storage, and four to sixteen cores and 16 GiB of RAM or more - then it could threaten laptops and desktops.
The Ipad could cannibalize Imac sales - but only "lite" content creation in its current form. (If it ran Apple OSX with an Iphone OS skin, so that when you docked you had the desktop OS....)
You're right about that. I know that for what I do, an iPad will not suffice by a long shot. But yes, there are some industries that will be able to jump in headfirst with an iPad and see some great results.
I'm not seeing what the actual problem is here? As long as you can download a printing app, and there are quite a few choices, what difference does it make if you print from the "middleman's" software or Apple's implementation as long as you get the job done. Isn't that the whole idea of the App Store is so you can make the iPad/iPod Touch/iPhone into whatever you want them to be?
1) this requires each program from which you want to print to contain its own different kludge to print
2) if you use one of the programs you're talking about, you have to maintain multiple copies of data or use cloud storage
3) the printing apps only work with a narrow subset of printing configurations. For example, in my house I have three networked printers (an hp color laser, an hp photo, and a brother laser), and none work with any of the printing apps.
I was speaking in the context of the iPad being a "laptop killer", which I think is a silly notion. For example, let's say you're visiting a client or business partner. Or in a hotel. Which device is going to allow you to print with the least hassle? A notebook, which already has the appropriate drivers loaded and can print to a printer within seconds, or the iPad, which requires you to load new software on someone else's machine first?
So again, my whole point is that the iPad is a hell of a device and one I enjoyed quite a bit when using it in Best Buy. But Mossberg's idea that this could lead to the death of the laptop is farfetched at this point.
Only if this old story comes to pass.
When you can connect two 27" monitors to an Ipad, and a few terabytes of storage, and four to sixteen cores and 16 GiB of RAM or more - then it could threaten laptops and desktops.
The Ipad could cannibalize Imac sales - but only "lite" content creation in its current form. (If it ran Apple OSX with an Iphone OS skin, so that when you docked you had the desktop OS....)
THAT is not going to happen, thanks God!
Whoever 'designed' that thing knows nothing about product design. Why would you risk all sorts of problems just to be able to grind down one side of your Apple tablet?
Interesting. I too have a MacPro, MBP, Kindle and iPhone. This device doesnt really replace any of these items. Perhaps the kindle but I'd rather put the moola towards photography gear. Many of the sites I frequent real estate, art, photography, video are utilizing flash, so it will hardly trump the surfing experience I have with Firefox on a mac
The iPad will be more compelling to me if they make it a more independent device for creation as well as consumption.
Much like the rest of Apple's lineup, I agree that this device will face intentional crippling. They are willing to cannibalize an iPod here and there but make no mistake they want to sell notebooks. this iPad will not be allowed to poach MBP sales.
Yep. With printing increasingly going wireless and networked middelman's software wont really matter. doubtful many will be doing any critical printing from the iPad just yet.
Numbers sound absurdly high. Not saying impossible, counting pre-orders, but sound very, very unlikely. You'd need to have hundreds of thousands of preorders, and over a thousand iPads (and customers) per Apple store (assuming the 15-30 iPads per Best Buy is accurate -- that's only ~25000 max, and is essentially insignificant) -- that just strikes me as unlikely. Particularly with the rumours of production delays, and the note that some stores didn't even sell out of stock.
On the flip side, you have all these corporations who've been sucked in by the hype/RDF, and working extremely hard on 'converting' all their content, getting 'iPad-ready', and, even if these numbers are accurate, it's far less than a single percent of the population of the USA alone. I didn't think large media conglomerates tended to jump so hard at such small and unproven market segments.
Also, some of the posts in this thread remind me of something from years ago on Penny Arcade. Don't like it? Well, you can't criticise it -- it's not for you. Very defensive, somewhat-fanboyish mentality.
On the flip side, you have all these corporations who've been sucked in by the hype/RDF, and working extremely hard on 'converting' all their content, getting 'iPad-ready', and, even if these numbers are accurate, it's far less than a single percent of the population of the USA alone. I didn't think large media conglomerates tended to jump so hard at such small and unproven market segments.
Also, some of the posts in this thread remind me of something from years ago on Penny Arcade. Don't like it? Well, you can't criticise it -- it's not for you. Very defensive, somewhat-fanboyish mentality.
i can see it killing off the home MBP market. i was thinking about a MBP later this year, but even with all it's limitations i'd rather now get a Mac Mini and one or two ipads if it came to that. use the Mini as a home base computer and take the ipad with me when going to the inlaws or whatever.
even after a refresh, MBP's will still be pricy and i'd rather get 2-3 lower end devices than on expensive one.
even after a refresh, MBP's will still be pricy and i'd rather get 2-3 lower end devices than on expensive one.
Tablet MBP?? not at all guys, stop trying to make it fit!
Everyone is commenting on the iPad as though Apple contacted them saying: "Yes, we have seen the demand for a tablet macbook pro computer and will provide it!"
Thats not the message guys. If you stop, take a deep breath from the angst and hype that so easily clouds and think about how Apple (Steve) works you'll get a better idea of what its about.
They're thinking revolution from the ground up, that is, from the simple users working up. When the timing is right, they'll think about the pros.
The iPad is the barebones computer that the everyman joe really uses a computer for: email, internet browsing, media for fun, apps/games.
In a way what it lacks in flexibility it makes up for in practicality: I'd say most casual mac users have macbooks and macbook pros that we really don't quite "need". Yes we do end up finding roles for our laptops to play in our lives and it certainly is convenient but I would wager that a large percentage of the new mac users don't use their machines for 80% of what they're capable of.
The iPad steps into the direction of addressing this, and i'd argue in the long run potentially simplifying people's lives:
*It's relatively low priced (answering the demand for cheaper Mac computing option)
*As I stated previously its the bare bones of computing 'needs': email, communication, web browsing, text reading, typing? (remains to be seen how effective it is over a physical keyboard)
*It has an accessible and simple GUI (even more so than typical apple products) - with 1 app function at a time (which i think actually can help with slowing down peoples fast paced multitasking lives)
*** Ultimately what you have is a computer that does the 'essential' things that 100% of users DO indeed use their computer for, at a lower price, thats easy to learn and i'd say even master. It taps into markets that are potentially untappable - i.e. older generation thats not computer savy and those who want the essentials of computing without the extra stuff (price tag), i'd say it may even create a new subculture of simplified computing...maybe a branch off of minimalist youth culture???
The point is: Stop trying to conform it into the macbook pro tablet we mac fanatics have been drooling over, thats not what it is...perhaps in the future Apple will address the demand but for now I really think its just trying a different approach to opening up new markets/redefine things.
I'd say it has potential to start shifting things to change but we'll have to see how it performs, and what niche it eventually carves out for itself.
Everyone is commenting on the iPad as though Apple contacted them saying: "Yes, we have seen the demand for a tablet macbook pro computer and will provide it!"
Thats not the message guys. If you stop, take a deep breath from the angst and hype that so easily clouds and think about how Apple (Steve) works you'll get a better idea of what its about.
They're thinking revolution from the ground up, that is, from the simple users working up. When the timing is right, they'll think about the pros.
The iPad is the barebones computer that the everyman joe really uses a computer for: email, internet browsing, media for fun, apps/games.
In a way what it lacks in flexibility it makes up for in practicality: I'd say most casual mac users have macbooks and macbook pros that we really don't quite "need". Yes we do end up finding roles for our laptops to play in our lives and it certainly is convenient but I would wager that a large percentage of the new mac users don't use their machines for 80% of what they're capable of.
The iPad steps into the direction of addressing this, and i'd argue in the long run potentially simplifying people's lives:
*It's relatively low priced (answering the demand for cheaper Mac computing option)
*As I stated previously its the bare bones of computing 'needs': email, communication, web browsing, text reading, typing? (remains to be seen how effective it is over a physical keyboard)
*It has an accessible and simple GUI (even more so than typical apple products) - with 1 app function at a time (which i think actually can help with slowing down peoples fast paced multitasking lives)
*** Ultimately what you have is a computer that does the 'essential' things that 100% of users DO indeed use their computer for, at a lower price, thats easy to learn and i'd say even master. It taps into markets that are potentially untappable - i.e. older generation thats not computer savy and those who want the essentials of computing without the extra stuff (price tag), i'd say it may even create a new subculture of simplified computing...maybe a branch off of minimalist youth culture???
The point is: Stop trying to conform it into the macbook pro tablet we mac fanatics have been drooling over, thats not what it is...perhaps in the future Apple will address the demand but for now I really think its just trying a different approach to opening up new markets/redefine things.
I'd say it has potential to start shifting things to change but we'll have to see how it performs, and what niche it eventually carves out for itself.
I think there might be some people who will replace, or opt for, an iPad instead of a MacBook or MacBook Pro. But I can't see that being much of a concern for Apple. If you consider what a Macbook (even at the low end), has over an iPad (at the high end), they still are not totally interchangeable. A Macbook has much larger hard drive capacity, a CD drive, USB ports, output for Cinema Displays, and can handle intense productivity apps (Office, Photo-editing, video editing, etc). For someone to opt out of a Macbook (or even less likely, a Macbook Pro), they are probably going to go for the top of the line iPad, in which case, Apple is not losing that much money, so that small shift of market share is not really a big concern.
Even a 2nd or 3rd generation iPad is not likely to match the productivity of a Macbook. It might do a lot of great and cool things, in a remarkable way, and may even do some things in more efficient and productive way. And what it becomes in 5 years time is anyones guess (and a guess that is almost certain to be wrong). But by its very nature it will likely (unless there is some remarkable revision along the way) never be able to do all that a laptop will do and likely not hurt their laptop market too much....for now.
Apple is going big with the iPad. They haven't grown as much as they have in the past decade by being timid so 'holding back' would be counter to most everything they have done too this point.
Even a 2nd or 3rd generation iPad is not likely to match the productivity of a Macbook. It might do a lot of great and cool things, in a remarkable way, and may even do some things in more efficient and productive way. And what it becomes in 5 years time is anyones guess (and a guess that is almost certain to be wrong). But by its very nature it will likely (unless there is some remarkable revision along the way) never be able to do all that a laptop will do and likely not hurt their laptop market too much....for now.
Apple is going big with the iPad. They haven't grown as much as they have in the past decade by being timid so 'holding back' would be counter to most everything they have done too this point.
I haven't read the whole thread, so I don't know if anyone has pointed this out yet, but...
You forgot the thousands of UPS trucks that were delivering pre-orders, and you are relying on a rumor about the number of iPads that each Best Buy was provided.
It is unlikely that the iPad will replace a computer; it will simply be an additional device.
66% of Apple owning households have three or more computers. 85% of them have at least one Windows PC. Apple households are considerably more affluent.
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_091005.html
You are mixing statistics. "Apple owning households" meaning Macs. But MANY people have ipods and no macs. Many have iphones and no macs. And many will have iPads and no macs, and, over time, many whose only computer would be a netbook or a MB will instead use an iPad.