Analyst Raises 2010 iPad Sales Estimate to 8 Million

[Small White Car]

Because you stated Windows and the PC are dead. This is not true, they will not be replaced by a 9 inch ipod with fart apps.

Sorry, the world runs on PCs (Mac & Windows)

Who said anything about 9 inches? You do understand I'm talking about 10 to 15 years from now, right?

The iPad of 2025 will be as similar to the first iPad as the 1984 Mac is similar to a modern Mac Pro.

Who would look at an original Mac and say "Someday we'll edit feature films on Macs!" You would have made fun of that person, I guess, but they would have been right.

 

[RT2020]

Again, I do not believe that Apple's success in one new area means they will close down another.

The death of computers as we know them has been forecast numerous times. It has not happened.

The computer I am using now is not very different from a Mac II in operation. Or, for that matter, from a 286 running GEM Desktop back in the day. The basics of interaction are all the same.

Indeed, aside from the addition of a mouse and GUI and WYSIWYG, I could be using a terminal connected to a mainframe.

Keyboards and dedicated pointing devices cannot be easily replaced in productivity work any more than large screens. I can't do heavy duty statistics on an iPad and could not even if it had a real keyboard and PASW 18. Nor can I do video editing. Nor do I expect that in the next five years, video editing on iPads will be a serious possibility.

So go ahead and invest $50K in a Mac.

You are correct that keyboards and mice are needed for work any degree of sophistication and efficiency. That doesn't mean that Emperor Jobs see's it that way. Unfortunately, we have already seen a huge stagnation in the Pro line and lack of development on OSX. So, this isn't merely speculation based on the success of the 9 inch ipod.

 

[RT2020]

Who said anything about 9 inches? You do understand I'm talking about 10 to 15 years from now, right?

The iPad of 2025 will be as similar to the first iPad as the 1984 Mac is similar to a modern Mac Pro.

Who would look at an original Mac and say "Someday we'll edit feature films on Macs!" You would have made fun of that person, I guess, but they would have been right.

In 10-15 years the iPhone OS (notice it's even called a phone os) will have to become significantly more advanced in order to be able to replace the PC. Really, it would be nothing like it is today...so that's really a moot point I think.

 

[cvaldes]

But it started out close to $250 per share this morning and before that it was a little more and before that a little more...

What is going on?

AAPL you are headed in the wrong direction! Please turn around and go back the way you came!

Part of a broad market selloff. S&P 500 is down about 2.5%, Nasdaq about 3%. It has nothing to do with Apple's financials.

Perhaps you should learn more about the stock market.

 

[Small White Car]

In 10-15 years the iPhone OS (notice it's even called a phone os) will have to become significantly more advanced in order to be able to replace the PC. Really, it would be nothing like it is today...so that's really a moot point I think.

How is that moot?

Yes, the iPad will need to gain mouse support to go along with its keyboard support before this will happen.

"Then what makes it an iPad?" you ask.

It will continue to be app-based, not window based. It will continue to be content-based, not file-based (where apps store data and share them with other apps and there is not a file system, per se).

Those are the 2 biggest differences I'm talking about. I suspect we'll eventually see an iPad with a keyboard and touchpad just like a Macbook Air. And you'll run Final Cut on that iPad.

But as long as it maintains those 2 things then it'll be an iPad decendent NOT a Mac.

 

[Atkins]

How long until I can't buy PC hardware and a copy of an x86-64 operating system?
What about those that obtain no value from these forms?

I guess we are the minority...

I really don't think most people would agree that the iPad is a serious replacement for a Mac Pro or iMac... much less a MacBook... except for certain niches.

That wasn't my point when I said that Macs get a new form.

 

[Jimmy James]

In other words:

"Our previous estimate was off by 60%"

 

[RT2020]

How is that moot?

Yes, the iPad will need to gain mouse support to go along with its keyboard support before this will happen.

"Then what makes it an iPad?" you ask.

It will continue to be app-based, not window based. It will continue to be content-based, not file-based (where apps store data and share them with other apps and there is not a file system, per se).

Those are the 2 biggest differences I'm talking about. I suspect we'll eventually see an iPad with a keyboard and touchpad just like a Macbook Air. And you'll run Final Cut on that iPad.

But as long as it maintains those 2 things then it'll be an iPad decendent NOT a Mac.

I'm not so sure applicaiton-based is very efficient for multitasking. It is a modal way of doing things, which is something Apple was against until recently. Think how efficient expose is...or the ability to work in side-by-side windows. A flexible file system is also quite important as you start to work with thousands of files, and share file types between applications.

 

[Small White Car]

Think how efficient expose is...or the ability to work in side-by-side windows. A flexible file system is also quite important as you start to work with thousands of files, and share file types between applications.

Yeah, remember this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwVBzx0LMNQ

That's an iPad descendent, not a Mac decendent.

That's what I'm talking about when I say the Mac is dead. I mean that those kind of ultra-futuristic devices on most sci-fi shows manipulate data directly in the same way the iPhone does. They DON'T ask you what app you want to open a file with. You just find the data you want, and you do something to it.

This is the same as the iPhone. When you find something and look at it, you're already in an app that can do something to it and you just do it. You don't find the file and then decide how to open it.

The Mac's addition of quick-look is a step in that direction, but it's just an add-on. The iPad is the actual device that will grow to do what the Mac does. The Mac will not grow to do what the iPad does. It can't. If it does, it won't be a Mac anymore. (Thus I'm right no matter what they do.)

 

[Small White Car]

People get confused when I say the Mac is dead...I don't mean the iPad is literally going to replace it.

I just mean that the computers of 2025 will look at the 2010 iPad as their grandfather and NOT the 1984 Macintosh as their grandfather.

That's all.

None of those computers will look anything like a modern Mac OR a modern iPad.

 

[RT2020]

Yeah, remember this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwVBzx0LMNQ

That's an iPad descendent, not a Mac decendent.

That's what I'm talking about when I say the Mac is dead. I mean that those kind of ultra-futuristic devices on most sci-fi shows manipulate data directly in the same way the iPhone does. They DON'T ask you what app you want to open a file with. You just find the data you want, and you do something to it.

This is the same as the iPhone. When you find something and look at it, you're already in an app that can do something to it and you just do it. You don't find the file and then decide how to open it.

The Mac's addition of quick-look is a step in that direction, but it's just an add-on. The iPad is the actual device that will grow to do what the Mac does. The Mac will not grow to do what the iPad does. It can't. If it does, it won't be a Mac anymore. (Thus I'm right no matter what they do.)

But isn't iPhone OS a step backwards in that regards? In OSX, I don't think about my applications, I think about my content. I organize and store my content the way I choose. I then click on my content, and it will open the right application. in iPhone OS, I have to do everything through the correct application first. That's two steps?

Touch makes great Sci-fi. Touch also makes sense on a simple portable device as well. But, don't forget that your finger is not as accurate as a tool. Just like pens provide so much more accuracy then finger painting, the mouse is more accurate than touch. With a mouse, I have pixel by pixel accuracy. I can use my mouse for 12 hours and not get tired.

For most consumers, something like the ipad could replace the PC. But for the incredible amount of content creation and productive tasks out there, the PC will continue to live on.

 

[Small White Car]

But isn't iPhone OS a step backwards in that regards? In OSX, I don't think about my applications, I think about my content. I organize and store my content the way I choose. I then click on my content, and it will open the right application.

The Setup:
I don't know about you, but most of my files could be opened multiple places. Depending on what I want to do with it, a JPEG could be opened in Photoshop, iPhoto, Final Cut Pro, or Pages. Double-clicking it is usually not an option.

Conversely, on my iPhone I can go to any app and, if it can use a photo, it just shows me my list of photos. The same photos, no matter where I am. I know I can just look at the same list from anywhere.

This is LIKE using FILE -> IMPORT on a Mac excpet that I am then presented with thousands of choices.

(None of this is a problem for you or me, right? But let's move on to the general public.)

My Point:
I get the sense that people here don't ever work with non-computer experts. I deal with them all the time. The kind of people for whom "File -> Open" becomes a freaking 10 minute ordeal every time they do it.

I don't experience that. You don't experience that. But a LOT of people do! I see it all the time.

That must be horrible for them. They'll jump to iPads over Macs as soon as they can, I am certain.

I'll keep using Macs for many, many years. I'm sure you will too. But we're in the minority...the people for whome FILE -> OPEN isn't a pain in the ass.

It's hard for us to remember that sometimes.

 

[wovel]

But it started out close to $250 per share this morning and before that it was a little more and before that a little more... ...

The day to day fluctuations of stock price don't mean much.

As an analyst myself, I'm not sure how they arrive at this conclusion. The basis of a valuation, in the real world, shouldn't be on hype or technical analysis of market movement. The inputs into the actual business place the intrinsic value of this company well below $250 per share.

That's not to say they're not going to continue to be successful. But I would be really hesitant to pay over ten times the actual value of this company's net assets and future cash streams. For what it's worth, I sold my shares at $180.

There is a pretty good joke in there, but I am going to leave it alone

the 9 inch ipod.

a 9 inch ipod touch?

9 inch ipod with fart apps.

Maybe if you repeat it enough, it will be true!

 

[nastebu]

A sad world of little aspiration.

I don't understand. Owning a PC is equivalent to having an aspiration?

 

[ValSalva]

Of course these iPad numbers look big. There is pent up demand. This product category didn't exist two months ago. Millions of people already own Macs.

Once the iPad has been out a while the backlog of demand will diminish and sales will drop.

 

[whooleytoo]

The numbers don't quite add up. If Apple sold 1 million in the first four weeks, and 200,000 a week since then, they already have over 1.4 million sold in the USA. Total US sales for the quarter (six weeks to go) should be more like 2.6 million in the USA, not 1.8 million. 1.8 million _only_ in the US would require a very, very sharp drop in US sales in the next six weeks. Apple should reach 1.8 million US sales in the first week of June.

Could it be that when they say sales are averaging 200K per week now, they mean at this point, the average sales per week since launch is 200K? (which obviously is high because the sales immediately after launch were high)

That would be very different from saying they're actually selling 200K per week now.

 

[Mattie Num Nums]

Of course these iPad numbers look big. There is pent up demand. This product category didn't exist two months ago. Millions of people already own Macs.

Once the iPad has been out a while the backlog of demand will diminish and sales will drop.

And all of us using OSX and Mac Hardware will be forced to make a decision. Buy a PC or buy into the Walled Garden.

 

[gnasher729]

Could it be that when they say sales are averaging 200K per week now, they mean at this point, the average sales per week since launch is 200K? (which obviously is high because the sales immediately after launch were high)

That would be very different from saying they're actually selling 200K per week now.

From TFA: "We believe Apple is now selling >200k iPads/wk". "Now selling", not "has sold an average of 200k iPads/wk".

 

[shen]

I believe it's appropriate to say that Mac and OS X are dead.

Disregard the lack of all caps.

Yep. After all Apple has no reason to work on the OS platform that got them this success or to build the high profit laptops/desktops that all those iPad owners are going to look at next time they need a more powerful machine. And why build a main computer to act as an iTunes server and make all your other machines iPads/iPhones? no that is a smart move, and we all know Apple isn't smart...

 

[whooleytoo]

People get confused when I say the Mac is dead...I don't mean the iPad is literally going to replace it.

I just mean that the computers of 2025 will look at the 2010 iPad as their grandfather and NOT the 1984 Macintosh as their grandfather.

That's all.

None of those computers will look anything like a modern Mac OR a modern iPad.

True, but the computer of 2025 will probably inherit as much from the Mac as from the iPad.

Any "iPad 2.0" (or "iPad 5.0") used for productivity would probably need a keyboard. And then people would want keyboard shortcuts, and the ability to use mouse actions instead of on-screen gestures for precise actions. And the ability for complex file management for handling large projects. Etc.. etc..

By the time you add all of those to the simple, elegant iPad OS, it'll start looking more and more like Mac OSX again.

 

[alhedges]

The Setup:


(None of this is a problem for you or me, right? But let's move on to the general public.)

My Point:
I get the sense that people here don't ever work with non-computer experts. I deal with them all the time. The kind of people for whom "File -> Open" becomes a freaking 10 minute ordeal every time they do it.

I don't experience that. You don't experience that. But a LOT of people do! I see it all the time.

That must be horrible for them. They'll jump to iPads over Macs as soon as they can, I am certain.

I'll keep using Macs for many, many years. I'm sure you will too. But we're in the minority...the people for whome FILE -> OPEN isn't a pain in the ass.

It's hard for us to remember that sometimes.

Do you have a job? (Serious question.) Have you ever been to an office? The *vast* majority of people who do not work exclusively with their hands use computers every day. Even people who work entirely with their hands often have computers at home that they use for e-mailing and web-browsing. People who can't program their DVD player can write a letter in Word.

You're acting like computers are some new, incredibly complicated device that only a few people know how to use - but this is really not the case in the real world; people use computers all the time, especially at work, and have for the past 20 years or so. (And if you look at the comments section of any online newspaper, it's apparent that it doesn't require a lot of intelligence to operate a computer).

Tablets won't change the fact that the majority of people are going to need conventional computers to do actual work. And these computer are going to need a real keyboard, an actual mouse, and (probably) some sort of network. Multitasking is also critical as is a large monitor.

Tablets aren't going after that primary market. Tablets are going after the "auxiliary computer" market; i.e., the market for the second or third computer. This is the same market that netbooks compete in. This is a growing market and thus a good market to be in. The key to this market is the fact that an auxiliary computer doesn't need to be nearly as powerful as the primary computer...but it does need to be optimized for its role, which means, among other things, a long battery life.

Of course there are people who use netbooks as their only computer (you can add a 19" monitor and USB keyboard and still come in just at or under $500). And some people can probably get by just using an iPad, perhaps judiciously accessorized.

But in 15 years, PCs (MS and Mac) will still be around and will generally resemble today's PCs. But I'm certain that there will be a huge auxiliary computer market...and I have no idea what that will look like.

 

[whooleytoo]

From TFA: "We believe Apple is now selling >200k iPads/wk". "Now selling", not "has sold an average of 200k iPads/wk".

You can't count average weekly sales over one week! It has to be over a number of weeks, and given the short period of time the iPad has been available, it wouldn't surprise me if that's precisely what they've done:

By 'now selling 200K/week' they actually mean 'now, the average weekly sales are...'

 

[Hankus]

Google announced the Google TV today. So Steve, how long will you rest on your iPad laurels? Enough to get played by Google on this one too? Didn't learn anything from Gates in the early 90s?

 

[gwynne]

Google announced the Google TV today. So Steve, how long will you rest on your iPad laurels? Enough to get played by Google on this one too? Didn't learn anything from Gates in the early 90s?

I was just talking to my friend about this. I was all excited until I saw this:

Google's not sharing hardware specs, but we're told Google TV devices will have WiFi, HDMI, the Intel CE4100 processor, and... some will have an IR blaster to tune your cable or satellite box, which is just sad. (Like, 1997 sad.)

No one's going to knock this out of the park until the cablecos stop living in the 1970s.

 

[ValSalva]

And all of us using OSX and Mac Hardware will be forced to make a decision. Buy a PC or buy into the Walled Garden.

It sure feels that way. In 2010 Mac and OS X have received no love from Apple. I think WWDC will give us a glimpse into just how far Mac/OS X are out of Apple's focus. I'd love to be proven wrong.