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Analyst Raises 2010 iPad Sales Estimate to 8 Million
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By the time you add a card reader, fan-fold line printer, 9 track mag tape drives, CPU front panel with switches and blinken lights, etc. to your elegant Mac, it'll start looking more and more like an IBM 360 mainframe again.
Oh, but that didn't happen...
People interact with things they call "computers" and "phones" in a completely different way nowadays than they did 40 years ago.
People do use computers differently to how they used to, but you know what? They haven't lost an ounce of functionality. They've gained it. Unlike the iPad which is a huge step back in terms of functionality and capability. I've a feeling that's where it will stay too until they "spoil" it by adding connectivity ports, replaceable parts, tactile feedback etc.
IMHO, the iPhone, iPad and Mac are so fundamentally different, they must coexist for many years to come.
The biggest (not only) reason why these products are so different, thus why their usage is also so different, is the size and use of the screen.
We want our desktop computers to be bigger... Bigger... BIGGER!
We went from 9" to 30" and we speculate even bigger screens.
But we want our iPads to be nice and easy to carry. Not even mentioning the iPhone which needs to fit in your pocket.
So, will the future iPad then get some kind of 40" TFT Display docking station via Lightpeak..?
Will that be the future?
Dunno.... will the future apps be able to run in 10" low-rez mode and extreme-rez 40" mode? I.e. iMovie version X will only run if connected to that huge HD+ screen and that the iPads own screen will solely work as an input device?
But will the Need for Speed (future iLife / productivity apps will surely need more speed, more cores, more memory) ever get caught up with the need for battery life?
Once technology finds a way to connect a slim portable device to a huge screen using a gr8 interface, and once this slim portable device is so fast that it has caught up with the workstations of the near future, and that with some kind of magic ensured long usage without the need to charge.... then yeah.
Then you might see the all-in-one Pod/Pad/PC device.
It will take some time though.
The biggest (not only) reason why these products are so different, thus why their usage is also so different, is the size and use of the screen.
We want our desktop computers to be bigger... Bigger... BIGGER!
We went from 9" to 30" and we speculate even bigger screens.
But we want our iPads to be nice and easy to carry. Not even mentioning the iPhone which needs to fit in your pocket.
So, will the future iPad then get some kind of 40" TFT Display docking station via Lightpeak..?
Will that be the future?
Dunno.... will the future apps be able to run in 10" low-rez mode and extreme-rez 40" mode? I.e. iMovie version X will only run if connected to that huge HD+ screen and that the iPads own screen will solely work as an input device?
But will the Need for Speed (future iLife / productivity apps will surely need more speed, more cores, more memory) ever get caught up with the need for battery life?
Once technology finds a way to connect a slim portable device to a huge screen using a gr8 interface, and once this slim portable device is so fast that it has caught up with the workstations of the near future, and that with some kind of magic ensured long usage without the need to charge.... then yeah.
Then you might see the all-in-one Pod/Pad/PC device.
It will take some time though.
i5 and i7 MBPs, revised MB, 10.6.3 already delivered, 10.6.4 accelerating in beta - and we're not even halfway through 2010 yet.
Pessimistic much?
This is the kind of sentiment that makes people call me names. Apple Inc is turning into something that most of us despised back then. The funny thing is that some avid fans were so fine with MS... then they turned. I think some of them can be easily turned.
Geneva last week, coming back to London from Zurich: nobody wearing a suit had one, just a few pretentious art student-type young women and men. They always find something to be busy in public places...
Ahead into the transition of a collapsing computer market?!
Congrats!I sold mine at the end of last year. There was and still is so much speculation and hype that it's difficult to clearly see. Just as well, in January we could have faced an expensive surprise. I just couldn't stand the stress - and I am happy that I sold them. Even today I just don't get the logic behind the current share price. Anything close to $300 looks absolutely bonkers to me. Having said that, Morgan Stanley's analysis had a pathetic 'worst-case-scenario'. I just couldn't believe that it had their name on the report.
Well, about the video editors... I suggest you read a few forums from the last few days. People genuinely got upset about Apple even hinting a dumbing down of Final Cut. No other group will be so happy to change to MS or Adobe - at least that was my impression.
10-15 years? That's too far ahead. Predict something for the near future that we can actually check. I made a pledge recently that if Apple will sell 8 or 10 million iPads this year (I can't remember, but I will check it), I will delete my MR account and will never come back. You can do the same the opposite way, I suppose...
Please, name one lost soul!
I agree with your logic, it's right to treat statistics accurately. But you also have to compare things like-to-like.
Have you got statistics about suicides among 20-25 years old American factory workers? I think Foxconn beats those statistics...
It's not normal for young workers to be suicidal at this rate.
And all of us using OSX and Mac Hardware will be forced to make a decision. Buy a PC or buy into the Walled Garden.
I'm so sick of this "Walled Garden"Bull**** I could literally puke.Don't like Apple anymore?Here's an idea for you folks.Buy Windows.Enjoy the lack of walls,for whatever that gets you,and just ****.
About 10-12 per 100,000.
Um, no. Suicide is the third leading cause of death for young people aged 15-24 year olds.
(1st = accidents, 2nd = homicide)
Suicide is the second leading waus of death for 25-34 year olds.
I couldn't care less how many it sells, I still think it's a crippled shiny toy with no true merit beyond being Apple's vending machine.
This is my belief too, though I think there is still a market for that kind of device amongst people who can't learn how to use a real computer.
Personally I think it would be a terrible thing if the iPad became the next step in computers and the "PC" became the thing of fevered basement nerds. Computers are a great learning tool, I wouldn't want my kids to be molly coddled on a FisherPrice computer all their growing lives... I'd want them to follow my experience in getting a computer at age 6.
But yea. I just don't understand why people would want this to be the standard for the public's computer - other than being an Apple fanatic.
All those people saying it'll never sell! Ohh.
I'm **still** looking forward to getting mine on International Release.
me too
You've got to be kidding.
Forget punched card readers (which I've used). Just by upgrading my Apple Mac computers, I've had to throw out heaps of SCSI drives, ADB input devices, NuBus cards, AppleTalk printers, 3.5" floppies, Miracle piano keyboard, and etc. And tons of Mac 68k software.
Tons of lost functionality. Does this huge amount of lost functionality matter?
Nope. Because I use my MacBook/iPod/iPhone/iPad very differently, connected to a very different environment, than my Mac of 25 years ago.
Hej,
My name is Michael Dell. I say - discontinue Apple - and give what is left of the company to the share holders.
Regards,
Michael
My name is Michael Dell. I say - discontinue Apple - and give what is left of the company to the share holders.
Regards,
Michael
Some people thought I was crazy to suggest future "Macs" will be run on the iPhone/iPad version of OSX with all the 30% fees, etc. that in has and the current "Macs" will disappear. But look at those sales figures. Why would Steve want to invest in "Macs" if he thinks the money is in future "Pad" computers where he collects not only money on the hardware, but nets 30% of all the application profits to boot. If the iPad is sell 2-to-1, it's only a matter of time, IMO before new 'iMacs" are more like an "iPad Plus". Forget about Firefox. Forget about anything that competes with Apple software. Why bother? The Federal Government won't enforce any kind of antitrust law against Apple under any circumstance, so just do anything you want, Apple. Charge 50%. If you got the market share, developers will have no choice but to pony up, at least until an Android like product eventually crushes your entire market and you repeat history all over again with a 10% share while someone else like Google takes 90% based purely on the Apple Greed Factor (AGF), which history has shown eventually destroys all success Apple ever has.
Yawn . . . so what? Who in the world actually believes that market share matters to Apple?
Sure, a healthy 50% of anything would be nice... but <sigh> it looks like i need to post this again:"Regardless of how Apple corporate wants to portray its products,
the Mac isn't a machine for the masses any more than red wine is
the preferred beverage at baseball games.
:
So who cares about ubiquity anyway?" --D. Story
Apple sells stuff they believe in. They're not trying to "out-market" anyone. Though they will brag (of course), if/when things work out that way. But it's pretty clear that that's not the goal toward which their efforts are purposed.
There are way more cockroaches than collies too... but, i'd rather have a couple of collies for pets.
The ONLY thing that matters to Apple is profits. The only thing that matters to Steve is absolute control and secrecy. I was talking about my concerns for us the consumer that actually likes OSX and would prefer not to have a phone/mobile version of the OS replace the computer operating system because Steve thinks small and thin is better than powerful.
By your yawn, I guess you don't care what Apple does so my comments don't apply to you. But I disagree that Macs cannot or will not ever be for the masses. That somehow implies they are less usable or capable than a Windows based machine and other than some gaming/gpu issues and a lack of hardware choices in the desktop segment, it feels like a far superior OS experience to me, not to mention the lack of viral/spyware issues (at least while it lasts). If that is not appealing to the masses, I tend to think it is at least partially Apple's fault and mostly due to the choice/pricing concerns that seemed to be aimed at a time in history when Macs were NOT appealing to the masses and Apple needed to wrench every last cent out of their core user base. Today, that is simply not necessary. Apple could easily afford to increase choices, decrease prices and make up for it with a larger user base, which would help pad them against a time (which is probably inevitable sooner or later) where their sales and appeal is not as good as a competitor. I know the standard fan-boy argument is that Apple knows best because fo their record profits, but Apple almost went extinct before too. There are good times and lean times and it would be better for both company and consumer alike if they kept that in mind and made a few minor tweaks to their lineup (e.g. just offering a real computer on the low-end instead of that anemic little Mac Mini would be a good start as would updating their Apple TV hardware to something befitting the times and not letting their "Pro" flagship become a laughing stock at its price range by leaving its price the same as the hardware languishes to very un-pro levels in many areas).
To point to profits made in other areas they seem more concerned about (phones and pads for example) doesn't negate the fallacy of ignoring their failings in these other areas when they have more than enough cash to deal with ALL these areas. Why call 2010 an iPhone/iPad year and let OSX languish the rest of this year when they can easily afford to hire enough people to take care of both markets without letter the other fall behind? They're making profits so it doesn't matter? Only a drone would think like that and while Steve is egotistical, it's hard to believe he could be that short-sighted. Sometimes, I wonder if it's more a matter of him thinking he needs to have his hands personally on every project and he is the one that doesn't have time to keep up with all those segments. If so, he needs to start trusting lower level management to do their jobs. Some of the best updates I saw from Apple was during the time Steve was off from work (e.g. a Mini update that wasn't a total cripple).
It is not normal for anybody to be suicidal. But the 12.3 per 100,000 total for the US population, which is about 2-3 times higher than the Foxconn rate. So I don't know what the rate is among US factory workers, but even if it is 2-3 times lower than the average of the whole population, that would make the situation at Foxconn absolutely average.
Now since Apple is only one of many many Foxconn customers (I think they build XBox and Wii as well, and many other things, and when has anyone complained about suicides at the Wii factory, even though it is the same factory? ), it is just the Apple connection that makes the news. But we don't know much about employment in China. Perhaps US companies don't like hiring people with suicidal tendencies, and Chinese companies do. That would obviously make the suicide rate among Chinese employees higher. But it would make the suicide rate among the Chinese unemployed lower. And perhaps a person with suicidal tendencies is less likely to commit suicide if they are employed. So Foxconn could have checked which potential employees might pose a suicide risk, and not hired the one thousand with the highest risk. Then maybe 8 of these one thousand wouldn't have committed suicide while working at Foxconn, but 20 would have committed suicide while sitting at home looking for a job. Foxconn would look better but would be responsible for 12 deaths.
So here's my opinion: 1. The number of suicides at Foxconn is nothing unusual. 2. If Foxconn didn't build stuff for Apple then we'd never heard of any of this. 3. If Foxconn didn't build stuff for Apple, then the number of suicides would be exactly the same. 4. The suicide rate at this company could have any number of complicated causes that are not related to any wrongdoing of the company.
If you have any actual facts that contradict one of these four points, tell us.
He is right though. Yes lots of people use computers at work in their every day life for a lot of things. However that doesn't mean the actually functionality that is inherent in modern day desktop operating systems are not kludgy and unfriendly at best, and will not easily be replaced by things that are more intutive and logical.
The reality is the modern desktop has developed and grown over the years in a process of massive evolution made of thousands and millions of tiny steps. 30-40 years ago there were lots of reasons why things were done a certain way, over time things were built and developed on top of that and evolved along the way.
The whole idea of a file system as the backbone of a computer is becoming antiquated and outdated. It is wholly unnecessary for the way the majority of people use computers and computer devices today, and unnecessary complex and burdensome to getting work done. That is why things will change.
We didn't go from having a few million to a few hundred million people using computers because computers became hyper easy and intutive to use. We went from a few million to a few hundred million because what could be done with them reached a tipping point where the rest of those people who didn't previously care about using a computer had an incentive enough to try and learn how to use them.
Most people want to accomplish specific tasks and goals with computers. They have no interest in managing the computer or in taking care of how it works.
Comparing apple to banana is not statistics
You missed my point. When applying statistics, one has to be certain that all main contributing factors are taken into account. Whatever suicidal rate applies to the TOTAL US population, I can safely speculate that full-time factory workers in their early twenties (the closest US group to our argument) are responsible for a lower suicidal rate than, say, middle-aged single men with an alcohol addiction. Society is made up of all different groups and it is accepted that suicides are not just caused by various personal reasons, but people from different socio-economic background deal with difficulties differently; some groups are being more exposed to social deviances, addictions, mental health issues and are more likely to commit suicide.
If you produce statistics about young factory workers in full-time employment and their suicidal rate in the US, we can move on. Until then, there is no point to compare apple to banana.
1. The numbers are not wrong, but they are only an estimate. So they are not 'real' either. At least, they haven't materialised yet.
2. Optimistic estimates don't change the fact that the iPad can be considered as a large iPod Touch. If Apple doesn't want that stigma, they'd better not to put the same amount of RAM into it as in the late-2009 iPod Touch, the same OS and a marginally faster processor from the same kind.
3. Your logic is wrong. Just because it's a large iPod Touch, there is no reason to assume that some people would not buy it. The problem here is that you feel uncomfortable about the iPad being an overgrown iPod Touch. Don't be! If you like it, you can follow the millions, allegedly buying one; and enjoy your iPod MaxiPad!
You missed my point. When applying statistics, one has to be certain that all main contributing factors are taken into account. Whatever suicidal rate applies to the TOTAL US population, I can safely speculate that full-time factory workers in their early twenties (the closest US group to our argument) are responsible for a lower suicidal rate than, say, middle-aged single men with an alcohol addiction. Society is made up of all different groups and it is accepted that suicides are not just caused by various personal reasons, but people from different socio-economic background deal with difficulties differently; some groups are being more exposed to social deviances, addictions, mental health issues and are more likely to commit suicide.
If you produce statistics about young factory workers in full-time employment and their suicidal rate in the US, we can move on. Until then, there is no point to compare apple to banana.
1. The numbers are not wrong, but they are only an estimate. So they are not 'real' either. At least, they haven't materialised yet.
2. Optimistic estimates don't change the fact that the iPad can be considered as a large iPod Touch. If Apple doesn't want that stigma, they'd better not to put the same amount of RAM into it as in the late-2009 iPod Touch, the same OS and a marginally faster processor from the same kind.
3. Your logic is wrong. Just because it's a large iPod Touch, there is no reason to assume that some people would not buy it. The problem here is that you feel uncomfortable about the iPad being an overgrown iPod Touch. Don't be! If you like it, you can follow the millions, allegedly buying one; and enjoy your iPod MaxiPad!
Whether suicide is "normal" or abnormal, I think we can agree that committing suicide because you've let your employer down is highly abnormal even for suicidal people. I think you have to take Eastern culture into account here. I don't know to which extent Chinese tradition/history/culture has similarities with its Japanese ditto, but we know that in Japan they have a thing with 'honor suicide' that dates all the way back to the Samurai. Such suicides aren't committed due to "normal" reasons (clinical depression, relationship break-ups etc), they're committed by sane and rational people who have been marinated in cultures that differ from the Western one. I remember a few years back when the Japanese economy was in trouble and there were massive layoffs; in the news reports they showed pictures of crowds of business workers who were just sitting in the streets with their briefcases and cellphones because they didn't dare go home and admit that they were unemployed... honor issues galore.