Yeah of course I did, I'm not going to waste additional time on anti-science mis-information spreaders such as yourself, when as you just showed, you can google yourself.
If you had taken the time to read any of those articles (you didn't), you'd realize that:
- They prove what I said correct and what you said wrong.
- The higher the ease of transmission, the greater the required percentage of population needing to be immune, of which COVID is easily spread and therefore will require higher percentages of the population to be immune.
To summarize, your insinuation that NYC is benefitting from herd immunity is ridiculous.
Oh so I am anti-science am I? And you know this how? Simply because I said that the scientists MAY not be right in everything they say? Consider the situation in the UK...
Dr Ferguson made predictions based on his scientific model for multiple epidemics/pandemics in the past and on every occasion his predictions (based on "science") were an order of magnitude wrong! I am not saying that science doesn't exist. I am not saying that science it always wrong. I am saying that science CAN be wrong.
And the articles that I quoted literally said different numbers to the 70% which you quoted as both a fact and as an invariable parameter. And yes, I do understand the concept of transmissibility, I am far more intelligent than you give me credit for. Of course a more virulent illness will require higher numbers to reach herd immunity. But the last of those articles stated that 70% was required for an illness with a transmissibility of 3. COVID simply DOES NOT have that number, at least not in the UK. It is less than 1. Therefore, by your own admission in point 2 that you made, if it is only 1 then then percentage needed will be much less than 70%.
Plus, you may be 100% correct that, on a macro level, NYC didn't benefit from herd immunity, but what about on the micro level? If people are staying in, under lockdown, in apartment buildings or other high population density areas, then herd immunity can operate within those pseudo-closed systems. If a high enough percentage of people within those environments that are positive (or recovered) then herd immunity can protect the un-infected within those "closed" communities, thereby limiting the spread within those micro-groups. Each of those micro-groups then benefits from lower infection rates. If you then go up a level and look at those micro-groups as "individuals" then the lower rates mean that there is less chance of a spread between those groups. It isn't as simple as looking at the overall number and saying "no herd immunity".
Anyway, to summarise, I did not insinuate anything, I merely posited it as a possibility. That is what enquiring minds do. They consider more than the dogmatic, parroted press releases. Sometimes they end up coming back to agreeing. Sometimes they don't. But you seem to be suggesting that because I looked at other sources, that I am somehow less informed than you?
I am absolutely open to all opinions on this, but I won't simply accept what one scientist says as being the facts when there have already been different views on this...from other scientists! There is no consensus.