Apple Again Closing Some Stores in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina Due to Coronavirus Spikes

[TVOR]

If you look at scientists hundreds of years ago, you'd say they didn't know very much about their world. And back then, they thought their predecessors were ignorant.

There is no reason to believe that in a hundred years, people will look back at today's scientists and think that we were very ignorant.

If anything I would say that the rate of knowledge acquisition is increasing...therefore the knowledge gap between now and 100 years from now will be significantly greater than the knowledge gap between 100 years ago and now. So while they probably won't look back and think we are ignorant, they probably will look back and laugh and many of our crazy ideas and question how we couldn't understand things that are "a given" in 100 years time.

 

[cmaier]

Hilarious. I never thought I would hear Americans utter such words. Full blown lockdown until every person is identified and put into a database.. yeah I’ll pass. Try putting that into law.

Nobody said anything about a database (another straw man argument). And we had a lockdown for several months here in Northern California. It was fine. One more month, nationwide, would have done it. But instead we had a bunch of lunatics who demand the freedom to run around coughing on people.

 

[compwiz1202]

I have yet to hear a convincing alternative to ending lockdown from anybody who says "too early"...but I'm always open to ideas. So what do you suggest? Literally keep people locked down and businesses closed until a vaccine arrives...which may never happen? How do you think the global economy would be able to support that?

Part of the issue is some people correlate opening to no more social distancing or masks. If people would still follow the protocols instead of swarming beaches with no masks on top of each other, we wouldn't have the spikes.

 

[konqerror]

Currently doing my Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering. Thanks for trying.

Engineering is very different from the hard sciences. Engineering you prove with n=1. Hard science, particularly life sciences have large stochastic processes at work.

It is very common to see papers in life sciences coming to completely opposite conclusions, so stronger conclusions come from meta-analysis papers. That does not exist in mechanical engineering.

When you wrote your last paper, did a statistician do work? Almost all medical papers require the work of a biostatistician or they will be rejected without review.

 

[hagjohn]

Did Apple provide a statement explaining these closures? Gurman's tweet just says that they closed the stores, not why.

Do you not watch the news? These are all the states that are spiking with COVID-19. I'm betting the list will expand a bit more in the coming weeks.

 

[itsmilo]

I have yet to hear a convincing alternative to ending lockdown from anybody who says "too early"...but I'm always open to ideas. So what do you suggest? Literally keep people locked down and businesses closed until a vaccine arrives...which may never happen? How do you think the global economy would be able to support that?

here in Germany:

it is mandatory to wear a mask at stores and bars / restaurants. I actually saw a angry woman who refused to wear a mask and called everyone stupid for wearing one at a grocery store be kicked out yesterday

Limit the access to stores for a specific amount of people at a time

Limit the available seatings at restaurants / bars and make sure there is a 2 Meter distance between tables. Have the waiters wear masks

Limit the amount of people that can meet and have people be conscious enough to actually follow it

seems to have worked well to flatten the curve here so far

 

[cmaier]

If anything I would say that the rate of knowledge acquisition is increasing...therefore the knowledge gap between now and 100 years from now will be significantly greater than the knowledge gap between 100 years ago and now. So while they probably won't look back and think we are ignorant, they probably will look back and laugh and many of our crazy ideas and question how we couldn't understand things that are "a given" in 100 years time.

But not this.

Your argument is a logical fallacy - since we clearly don’t know everything, therefore you cannot trust anything the scientists say.

The fact that there are things we don’t know is a terrible reason not to act rationally based on the things we do know.

 

[Craptastic]

I’m just here for the comments. Had no idea so many people here worked for the CDC, WHO, or held a degree in infectious diseases. You guys rock!

 

[DotCom2]

That's not the point, people aren't wearing masks outside of the apple store which is making it more likely for the virus to enter the apple store.
[/QUOTE]
If people would just wear a mask instead of screaming and yelling about their constitutional rights we could get over this sooner and everyone would be happy. JUST DO IT! jeez

 

[compwiz1202]

New Zealand is a far less populated country. You can't compare one to the other. There will be a degree of overlap but that is such a flawed statement to say "It worked there so it would have worked here"...there are far too many variables.

This is like the one article saying how six states didn't need any restrictions, but the total pop of all six together was 1.5M more than just NYC!

 

[dannyyankou]

Engineering is very different from the hard sciences. Engineering you prove with n=1. Hard science, particularly life sciences have large stochastic processes at work.

It is very common to see papers in life sciences coming to completely opposite conclusions, so stronger conclusions come from meta-analysis papers. That does not exist in mechanical engineering.

When you wrote your last paper, did a statistician do work? Almost all medical papers require the work of a biostatistician or they will be rejected without review.

Yeah I mean my advisor from graduate business school had a Phd, I don't consult her for medical advice lol

 

[gugy]

I wear masks on establishments. Outside, walking, etc. No way.
Obviously respecting distance to strangers.
IMO, if you do these things you and others will be OK. I just don't subscribe the whole fear mongering from the media and government officials.

 

[konqerror]

Masks are still effective but many protesters aren't wearing them>
What's your solution? Let everyone go back to normal until the healthcare system is overwhelmed again?

You control the opening rate so that the healthcare system is optimally utilized: not sitting idle, but not overloaded. You want it to run as close to 100% capacity as possible.

In many states, the lockdown caused hospitals to be utilized less than usual, the opposite of predictions of overwhelming deaths.

 

[Mr. Dee]

Look at the bright side, at least there will be less stupid people walking around.

 

[chucker23n1]

Many years ago..."scientists" insisted the world was flat!

If by "many years ago" you mean about 500 BC, sure. By the time Socrates and Pythagoras lived, a spherical model became more common.

But you're basically making the opposite point of the one you think you're making: what makes science work well is that they keep verifying (and occasionally correcting) their own conclusions, rather than considering themselves infallible.

 

[fourthtunz]

Oh so I am anti-science am I? And you know this how? Simply because I said that the scientists MAY not be right in everything they say? Consider the situation in the UK...

Dr Ferguson made predictions based on his scientific model for multiple epidemics/pandemics in the past and on every occasion his predictions (based on "science") were an order of magnitude wrong! I am not saying that science doesn't exist. I am not saying that science it always wrong. I am saying that science CAN be wrong.

And the articles that I quoted literally said different numbers to the 70% which you quoted as both a fact and as an invariable parameter. And yes, I do understand the concept of transmissibility, I am far more intelligent than you give me credit for. Of course a more virulent illness will require higher numbers to reach herd immunity. But the last of those articles stated that 70% was required for an illness with a transmissibility of 3. COVID simply DOES NOT have that number, at least not in the UK. It is less than 1. Therefore, by your own admission in point 2 that you made, if it is only 1 then then percentage needed will be much less than 70%.

Plus, you may be 100% correct that, on a macro level, NYC didn't benefit from herd immunity, but what about on the micro level? If people are staying in, under lockdown, in apartment buildings or other high population density areas, then herd immunity can operate within those pseudo-closed systems. If a high enough percentage of people within those environments that are positive (or recovered) then herd immunity can protect the un-infected within those "closed" communities, thereby limiting the spread within those micro-groups. Each of those micro-groups then benefits from lower infection rates. If you then go up a level and look at those micro-groups as "individuals" then the lower rates mean that there is less chance of a spread between those groups. It isn't as simple as looking at the overall number and saying "no herd immunity".

Anyway, to summarise, I did not insinuate anything, I merely posited it as a possibility. That is what enquiring minds do. They consider more than the dogmatic, parroted press releases. Sometimes they end up coming back to agreeing. Sometimes they don't. But you seem to be suggesting that because I looked at other sources, that I am somehow less informed than you?

I am absolutely open to all opinions on this, but I won't simply accept what one scientist says as being the facts when there have already been different views on this...from other scientists! There is no consensus.

Well the graphs show cases are going up and deaths are holding steady. what do you recommend?

 

[chucker23n1]

Look at the bright side, at least there will be less stupid people walking around.

Alas, the problem with not wearing a mask is that you're primarily hurting others, not yourself.

 

[hagjohn]

Your logic is flawed. If masks stop the spread, wearing them inside would be sufficient protection.

The droplets that you expel into the air is not the only way to pass COVID-19.

 

[cmaier]

I wear masks on establishments. Outside, walking, etc. No way.
Obviously respecting distance to strangers.
IMO, if you do these things you and others will be OK. I just don't subscribe the whole fear mongering from the media and government officials.

You call it “fearmongering” but others call it “telling the truth.”

You don’t have to believe in the deadliness and virulence of the virus - the virus believes in you.

 

[TVOR]

Consensus can change over time - that doesn’t mean it’s not consensus. There is generally agreement today among the world’s scientists and doctors about what is necessary to stop the disease in light of what is known today. That’s consensus. And even with changing ideas about masks, etc., there has ALWAYS been agreement among people who actually know the field that this is a very dangerous disease, and people should socially distance and stay home. That has never changed.

Oh my god..."Consensus can change over time"...that is LITERALLY what I was arguing about "Scientific fact" can change over time...and you called me anti-science!!

So the WHO does a U-Turn on its previous advice...and that's OK because generally everybody agrees with it. So if generally everybody agrees with the WHO NOW...then did they generally disagree when the WHO said the opposite to what it is saying now? Or did generally everybody agree with the WHO before and generally everybody has done a U-Turn now?

As for it being a very dangerous disease...not even in the Top 50 of most fatal...and only one step above measles in fact! If you believe Wikipedia that is...

 

[JimmyBanks6]

Engineering is very different from the hard sciences. Engineering you prove with n=1. Hard science, particularly life sciences have large stochastic processes at work.

It is very common to see papers in life sciences coming to completely opposite conclusions, so stronger conclusions come from meta-analysis papers. That does not exist in mechanical engineering.

When you wrote your last paper, did a statistician do work? Almost all medical papers require the work of a biostatistician or they will be rejected without review.

Are you really defending the scientists used to think the earth is flat guy because you're aware there are inherent differences in life sciences and engineering?

k.

As for your question, the majority of my work is in emissions, and every report and paper requires statistical analysis as emissions data is being compared between populations. Your comment on statistical analysis and contradictory claims doesn't change the fact that there are no experts claiming NYC is experiencing herd immunity.

 

[compwiz1202]

Do what New York did, test the **** out of everyone, enforce face coverings, and slowly reopen in a phased approach

That's the key work. You have Costco where last weekend there was a lady crying about her right, and there answer was ok then you can leave and escorted her out. Not like ***** Giant who caves and relaxes rules and doesn't enforce because they have no balls. Easily going to Costco over Giant.

 

[BC2009]

The way you factor out increased testing to determine the true rise in cases is to chart the number of hospitalizations which can be tracked to the period before testing was widely available.

If you have 5% increase in hospitalizations then you can assume that you have a proportional increase in infections. The increased testing is going to inflate the overall number of known infections for certain.

 

[fourthtunz]

Death rates in the UK are at about 13%, but that is based only on diagnoses cases (which seem to be out by a factor of somewhere between 4 and 10) and then there is the fact that the deaths here are far from accurate. Anybody dying who HAS COVID is having the cause of death listed as BEING COVID...which clearly it isn't in 100% of cases. So there are a lot of unknowns about it's mortality rate. But yes, it can be lethal, so can smoking, or drinking, or driving, or flying, or a thousand other things.

We cannot stop people from dying, no matter how tragic deaths are, people will die, we will all die, sooner or later. We do what we can to help those that we can. If you can 100% guarantee that wearing a mask will mean a 70% reduction in cases, then that's one thing...but you can't...because the "science" isn't definitive. It will make a difference, of course, but I doubt it is anything close to 70%.

But yes, in essence, I don't wear a mask. Or gloves. I clean my hands and don't go licking people's faces. But beyond that it is an illness, quite how nasty it is is still TBD, and the world needs to continue. People will die, it will be tragic, but life goes on.

And you have no problem being a spreader? The point of the mask is that you are showing that you respect others
around you. Really? Hubris.

 

[TVOR]

1) if you are locked down, infected bit asymptomatic, at worst you infect people in your house. Since they are also locked down, it goes no further.

2) you can test everyone, if you were, say, a competent government motivated by, say, science.

You can test everybody yes...but you could test me today...no virus...and then I could get it tomorrow...so unless you are testing everybody every few days there is no realistic way that you can ensure that nobody gets infected. People still need to go outside even they are on lockdown.