Apple Aiming to Begin Electric Car Production in 2020

[Keirasplace]

...fine, but our expectations of car travel have evolved along with that infrastructure. Electric cars released today have to compete with a well-developed gas-driven infrastructure that grew up over decades.

There are also fundamental problems:
1. Teslas can have decent range because they're large cars with plenty of floor area to hold the battery, and are built with expensive lightweight materials and techniques. Matching that in an affordable, compact car is going to be tough.

2. Tesla are probably getting cheap/free land for their charging network because Telsa owners are wealthy and shopping malls, restaurants etc. like the idea of attracting a few wealthy people. If EVs become mass-market then the charging stations are going to have to start earning their rent. Tesla-style free charging is probably unsustainable.

3. Charging takes, say 5-10 times as long as filling with gas. That means people are going to go off shopping, eating etc. and probably leave their cars taking space at the charging station for even longer . The current style of recharging station - with a couple of chargers in a car park or a filling-station-style forecourt - only works when EVs are rare. If EVs take off, then you're going to arrive at the charging station to find all the bays occupied and the owners off having lunch somewhere. Charging stations will have to evolve into parking lots with half the bays wired up (and a consequent parking battle between EV-users and gas-burners) - probabkly meaning that sites will need their power feed upgraded, too.

4. "But people will charge overnight and only need recharging stations occasionally so we won't need the current capacity...." Well, maybe if they can charge at both ends of a trip. I have a drive and garage - so I could charge at home, but I can't guarantee that my destination will have parking with a power point in range... so even on a 100 miles-each-way trip in a 200 mile range car I'm going to need to stop for a recharge to be safe. Also, I don't know about the US, but in the UK filling stations along major routes (especially motorway service stations) already charge a hefty premium: you don't set of on a half-empty tank if you can possibly fill up at a local supermarket first. Yet the motorway service stations still do a roaring trade. If EVs take off, its going to be the need for supermarkets and local filling stations that goes, not the ones on major routes.



In the UK, you just had to make sure that you broke down within walking distance of an AA Box (Note for Americans: AA=Automobile Association, not the other AA!). And the motorways have emergency phones at walking-distance intervals.





...which is another option you don't have with electric vehicles.

Or maybe, you're thinking way too much in today paradigm and forgetting other parallel disruptions.

If you couple:
- self driving cars (safer and less lost time driving, enables mobility for many who can't get around easily these days).
- less enthusiasm for driving/car ownership
- on demand tailored resource (get car needed for the job)
- shared cars (co ownership or public ownership)
- electric cars (Cheaper to maintain (very good if a car is shared), increasingly smaller/lighter as battery tech improves)
- public transit (convenience of public transit and cars rolled up in one, improved density, less parking space used)
- Slow but steady improvement in batteries, including charging speed
- Less tolerance to pollution and noise
etc...

All that put together paints a kind of very different view of the future.

So, what if a car does 40 miles if you don't own it and just call it when you need it ?
When you need something bigger, that drives longer, you order that bigger car with a longer range, more power, larger space to come to your door and that's it

That way, very small urban cars with a 40 mile range would be the norm for most traffic. They could even self-assembled in road trains on large thoroughfares.

 

[bbeagle]

Sorry, but for some reason, this made my cynical side flair up. I fear Apple might tell you that something's wrong, but Apple will make it not user-serviceable. Flat tire? Only can be fixed at an Apple Store. Low oil? Only fixable at an Apple Store. Look at what Apple's done with its computers. Soldered RAM and proprietary SSDs. Only the Mac Pro & iMac have user-serviceable RAM. And that's it. Who knows what they'd do to a car.

Sorry, just had to vent.

The same thing has ALREADY happened with cars today. For some things that go wrong, a computer needs to be hooked up below the dashboard to read a special 'code'. These computer devices cost thousands of dollars, and are different for each manufacturer. Small shops can't afford to buy all the devices, so this makes it serviceable only at the dealership.

But, I agree, Apple will probably go that direction where an Apple Certified center will have to service your car. It's true, that it will be more costly, but it will ALSO be more convenient. And convenience IS worth it to some people.

Why fear it though? There will always be options to not buy the Apple Car, just like you don't have to buy Apple products today.

----------

Me: "Siri, please drive to mom's house"

Siri: "I can't find anything on 'apple sauce'"

Me: (slowly) "Please drive to mom's house"

Siri: "I found 7 listings for 'Tom's Blouse'"

Me: "where's my Uber app...."

(16 year old son). but mom! Siri took me to the liquor store - I didn't tell it to go there! It's not my fault I was there.

 

[The Captain]

If you count the whole car, that may be true, but only because electric cars tend to be higher-end models with lots of bells and whistles.

If you mean the drive train, though, an electric drive train is orders of magnitude simpler than a gasoline drive train. There are no valves, no pistons, no camshaft, no timing chain, no injectors, no distributor, no spark plugs, no oxygen sensors, no knock sensors, no catalytic converter, no oil pump, no EGR valve, no gas tank pressurization test system, no fuel pump, no fuel filter, no water pump, no radiator, no transmission, no starter motor.... The amount of emissions control parts alone are enough to boggle the mind.

With an EV, you replace all of those common points of failure with a simple electric motor (i.e. a winding, brushes, a magnet, and a shaft, give or take), plus some motor-control electronics, plus a charge controller for the batteries, plus a giant pile of batteries and wiring. As complexity goes, electric drive trains are just a lot more straightforward.

Actually from the ones I've seen the electric motors used in vehicles are rather complex. They aren't simple "winding, brushes, a magnet, and a shaft" they have a lot of ingenuity in them but they are certainly not as simple as you described. All the little electronic doohickies (technical term for the electronics in the control mount on the motor) are all "parts" too. And I think a single piece of steal camshaft is going to be more reliable than a circuit board. Also the gear box on these things are at least as complex as a traditional one. And you have to double the amount of parts for two of each (assuming all wheel drive). Then there is the kinetic energy recovery system system. I'm not even going to get into that, but they are also pretty damn complex! And like I said, software is a point of failure and thus also "parts". I've had to restore old backups twice on my Macbook Pro due to OS corruption's, yet have never changed my distributor, oil pump, ect on either of my last two cars. I did replace a water pump, but after 260,000 miles i'd say that was a rather good run of reliability.

Either way after sleeping on this I've decided this is all pointless rabble. Apple is never making a car and we all go sucked in by overzealous press rumors. Are they working on a car related project, yea probably, but not a whole car. We got fooled. How much time did I waste talking about the Apple TV?

 

[IJ Reilly]

Hence why I'm skeptical about these rumors but at the same time think it makes sense for Apple to put R&D in this space. I do think it's ripe for disruption and its not wasted learning. Jon Fortt from CNBC wondered if Apple was beefing up its knowledge in this space to eventually make a play for Tesla.

Disruption is an overworked concept. Some markets are just too large, too complex, and have too many deeply-established players to be altered significantly by one company, let alone an upstart with no experience making that product. Tesla is attempting the blank-slate approach to the automotive market but it's gotten them not very far along so far, and we're seeing them hitting some limits on what they can do vs. what they've promised. It's Apple pie-in-the-sky to believe that Apple could somehow not only do it better, but also do it far more quickly.

 

[jp555]

Electric cars have roughly the same (or more) parts as does a gas powered one, and way more software to boot (which is really just more "parts"). And gasoline engines are extremely safe. Most of the fires are rather rare and usually start with the electronics. Also the battery in an electric car (while I think is mostly safe too) carries a charge that will mess you up. Potential energy is still potential energy and dangerous.

electric cars have >100x fewer moving parts. That's the big deal.

 

[bbeagle]

Maybe - but Apple still isn't going to build a car. So the question is - what are they building?

I'm guessing Apple will only invent the 'dashboard' which receives information about all the other parts of the car (tire pressure, gas tank, oil, engine rpm, etc.) and display and control this.

 

[guzhogi]

2. Tesla are probably getting cheap/free land for their charging network because Telsa owners are wealthy and shopping malls, restaurants etc. like the idea of attracting a few wealthy people. If EVs become mass-market then the charging stations are going to have to start earning their rent. Tesla-style free charging is probably unsustainable.

3. Charging takes, say 5-10 times as long as filling with gas. That means people are going to go off shopping, eating etc. and probably leave their cars taking space at the charging station for even longer . The current style of recharging station - with a couple of chargers in a car park or a filling-station-style forecourt - only works when EVs are rare. If EVs take off, then you're going to arrive at the charging station to find all the bays occupied and the owners off having lunch somewhere. Charging stations will have to evolve into parking lots with half the bays wired up (and a consequent parking battle between EV-users and gas-burners) - probabkly meaning that sites will need their power feed upgraded, too.

4. "But people will charge overnight and only need recharging stations occasionally so we won't need the current capacity...." Well, maybe if they can charge at both ends of a trip. I have a drive and garage - so I could charge at home, but I can't guarantee that my destination will have parking with a power point in range... so even on a 100 miles-each-way trip in a 200 mile range car I'm going to need to stop for a recharge to be safe. Also, I don't know about the US, but in the UK filling stations along major routes (especially motorway service stations) already charge a hefty premium: you don't set of on a half-empty tank if you can possibly fill up at a local supermarket first. Yet the motorway service stations still do a roaring trade. If EVs take off, its going to be the need for supermarkets and local filling stations that goes, not the ones on major routes.

While it would be extremely expensive and difficult to implement, maybe we could combine parking lots with charging stations? Maybe have parking meters double as charging stations? Like I said, super expensive and hard to implement.

One other thing is maybe wireless charging, as well. There would have to be a way for it to charge your car reasonably quickly, while not electrocuting pedestrians. However, I'm no expert in electricity / battery charging so I wouldn't know.

Maybe add something like this to roads to help create electricity.

 

[The Captain]

The same thing has ALREADY happened with cars today. For some things that go wrong, a computer needs to be hooked up below the dashboard to read a special 'code'. These computer devices cost thousands of dollars, and are different for each manufacturer. Small shops can't afford to buy all the devices, so this makes it serviceable only at the dealership.

Actually not really. http://www.amazon.com/b?node=15707381 couple of hundred at the most. I've plugged my $80 one into a bunch of different models and manufactures and they have all read fine.

 

[Smartass]

I'm excited. If they approach it like they do their other products, todays car manufacturers are probably getting nervous.

maybe the "cheaper" car makers like GM, Honda, Toyota and so on.. still, depends on where does Apple want to put its car. Judging by their obsession with "premium" they should be competing with Mercedes, BMW and Audi, but i'm guessing they already know that they dont stand a chance in that segment and they'll try with "middle class" cars

 

[The Captain]

electric cars have >100x fewer moving parts. That's the big deal.

I'll take a moving camshaft's reliability over a resting circuit board any day.

 

[fredf]

How about Apple get out an iWatch that has a battery life of more than one day and make it waterproof.

Then perhaps work on Homekit (via Apple TV).

Then maybe worry about an electric car.

 

[Boosf]

Just great....Samsung will have their car out sometime later this year I'm sure.

 

[Rocketman]

Apple lost a suit for anti-poaching agreements. So now they specialize in poaching. That's what the courts actually want.

123 sues Apple for poaching. But a detail many have missed is 123 went BK and the new buyer is a Chinese company. Some Americans simply do not want to work for a Chinese company at all. So an offer from Apple is double attractive.

http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2012/12/10/a123-sells-bulk-of-company-to-wanxiang-feds-must-approve/

1 year no disclose agreement. Big deal.

Rocketman

 

[SirCheese]

According to Wikipedia, Saturn was able to go from blank slate to a factory, workforce, and car in 7 years. So maybe 5 years is possible, but definitely a stretch.
What other Apple products will suffer in this timeframe due to diverted resources?

The Saturn Corporation was an automobile manufacturer and brand, established on January 7, 1985 as a subsidiary of General Motors in response to the success of Japanese automobile imports in the United States.[2]

They had GM, they didn't just start from scratch.

 

[Gasu E.]

I'm hoping it will be translucent and come in Bondi Blue.

 

[tdmac]

I don't seeApple entering the car market at all. What I do see is Apple working on specific aspects. Specifically, batteries. If you recall, Apple had previously met with Tesla in regard to batteries and Teslas plans to build a factory in the US.

Not only can Apple's hires help to bring advanced engineering capabilities to batteries it also can bring the software side to get the most out of usage. Just look at the iPhone's and how the software/hardware integration works holistically.

If Apple can engineer a superior battery package along with software, remember cars are pretty much software driven, it can then supply to all car mfg. In addition, these batteries will prove useful elsewhere like solar. Right now you get power from panels and surplus goes back to utility. Storage is key to power on un-sunny days without having to go to a utility.

Apple is pushing green. They are trying to supply as much power as they can for their facilities. If they can create affordable ways of doing this it will make these green energy sectors take off that much further. Don't forget Elon Musk is also an owner of a solar company as well.

i also wouldn't be surprised to find that Tesla/Apple were really poaching employees but that they were really working together

 

[ThisIsNotMe]

While the accessions of PrimeSense and C3 Technology directly impacted Apple's 3D mapping applications, their core technologies are prime for advanced self driving car.

Then again, while Apple may be working on a self-driving car, the most logical explanation is to gather data to correct street level distortion in Maps flyover mode.

 

[Wickedgardengtp]

.....will it run Adobe Flash?

 

[viorelgn]

By 2020? That's too long, I want an updated car every 6-9 months! Will it be with or without contract ?

 

[bbeagle]

Actually not really. http://www.amazon.com/b?node=15707381 couple of hundred at the most. I've plugged my $80 one into a bunch of different models and manufactures and they have all read fine.

My mechanic said that those don't work for their needs. The ones they need are thousands of dollars.

http://www.jbtoolsales.com/autel-ms...fgnJqi-8lBxKdfmW44m1UbOn5b-kfMCoOVxoCphjw_wcB

 

[viorelgn]

The development cycle for existing automakers is 5 years. And Apple who has never built a car and has been hiring battery specialists is going to design and build one in 5 years… sure.

By far the most ridiculous prediction ever.

Pretty soon we’ll start hearing that Foxconn has won the contract to start building the transmissions that Apple has designed…

Is Apple developing some battery technology? Sure. Is Apple looking at self driving technology? Sure. But to just go off and build a car in 5 years. Nope.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Three more points I want to make clear:

1) Car manufacturing is extremely cash intensive. That's why you rarely see successfully new car companies outside high priced niche brands. Of course Apple has the cash, but opportunity costs are high.

Some rough figures:
$1B per new car platform (GM quote)
$1B per small sized car plant (150,000 cars per year)
$1.5B per battery plant the same size (LG spends $303M for 20-30,000 bolts/year)
Plus service/dealer network, charging infrastructure etc etc.

Tesla got a huge freebie when Toyota/GM gave the NUMMI factory and heavy equipment away for free, more or less.
(500,000 cars per year capacity)

2) Long term, shipping cars overseas makes no sense (or the other way round). Transport, handling and import costs are very high. Shipping a Model S to China costs $3,600 for shipping and $19,000 for custom duties and import taxes. If Apple want to sell an "iCar" in the US, they will build US battery and manufacturing plants.

3) Making one good car is the easy part. The hard part is making lots of them consistently and efficiently.

Or in the words of Musk (Q3 earnings call):

People Don't Understand How Hard It Is To Manufacture Something.

It's worth saying that making one of something is quite easy. Making lots of something consistently that's going to last a long time is extremely hard. In fact, it is way harder to make the machine that makes the machine that it is to make the machine in the first place.

That's why going from iPod to iPhone is much easier than making a car.

That said, Apple have the cash and I think it's important for apple to diversify, be more than a phone company. Energy and automotive are hugely profitable markets.

 

[The Captain]

My mechanic said that those don't work for their needs. The ones they need are thousands of dollars.

http://www.jbtoolsales.com/autel-ms...fgnJqi-8lBxKdfmW44m1UbOn5b-kfMCoOVxoCphjw_wcB

Your mechanic doesn't "need" one of those, he just "wants" to have one of those. I do too, but I don't "need" it to read the codes on your car, the one I have will work just fine.

 

[doelcm82]

...fine, but our expectations of car travel have evolved along with that infrastructure. Electric cars released today have to compete with a well-developed gas-driven infrastructure that grew up over decades.

There are also fundamental problems:
1. Teslas can have decent range because they're large cars with plenty of floor area to hold the battery, and are built with expensive lightweight materials and techniques. Matching that in an affordable, compact car is going to be tough.

2. Tesla are probably getting cheap/free land for their charging network because Telsa owners are wealthy and shopping malls, restaurants etc. like the idea of attracting a few wealthy people. If EVs become mass-market then the charging stations are going to have to start earning their rent. Tesla-style free charging is probably unsustainable.

3. Charging takes, say 5-10 times as long as filling with gas. That means people are going to go off shopping, eating etc. and probably leave their cars taking space at the charging station for even longer . The current style of recharging station - with a couple of chargers in a car park or a filling-station-style forecourt - only works when EVs are rare. If EVs take off, then you're going to arrive at the charging station to find all the bays occupied and the owners off having lunch somewhere. Charging stations will have to evolve into parking lots with half the bays wired up (and a consequent parking battle between EV-users and gas-burners) - probabkly meaning that sites will need their power feed upgraded, too.

4. "But people will charge overnight and only need recharging stations occasionally so we won't need the current capacity...." Well, maybe if they can charge at both ends of a trip. I have a drive and garage - so I could charge at home, but I can't guarantee that my destination will have parking with a power point in range... so even on a 100 miles-each-way trip in a 200 mile range car I'm going to need to stop for a recharge to be safe. Also, I don't know about the US, but in the UK filling stations along major routes (especially motorway service stations) already charge a hefty premium: you don't set of on a half-empty tank if you can possibly fill up at a local supermarket first. Yet the motorway service stations still do a roaring trade. If EVs take off, its going to be the need for supermarkets and local filling stations that goes, not the ones on major routes.



In the UK, you just had to make sure that you broke down within walking distance of an AA Box (Note for Americans: AA=Automobile Association, not the other AA!). And the motorways have emergency phones at walking-distance intervals.

None of these "fundamental" problems are unsolvable. The first automobiles were owned by the wealthy who could afford to deal with the "fundamental" problems of driving and maintaining a temperamental machine with specific needs in a horse-drawn environment. I've seen motorway service stations in the UK. They tend to have fast-food dining and basic shopping. You could easily spend twenty minutes there even if you're not buying petrol. Charging times will get shorter, battery capacities will get higher. You could buy a car that works mostly as a battery electric vehicle, but also includes a small fuel cell, so if you're stranded the AA could bring you some hydrogen to get you to the next charging station. You can guarantee that your destination has a charging station nearby by checking the app on your car's infotainment screen or your mobile phone.

 

[ScepticMatt]

I want an updated car every 6-9 months! Will it be with or without contract ?

Hmm... I wonder if someone has thought about that?

... Oh wait, we already have that. It's called leasing.