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apple blew it

lsvtecjohn3 said:
Yeah they blew it, 1 million pre orders... Rolls eyes


Last year they had 600 k pre orders and sold 1.7 million in the first three days. If they keep the same paces like they did last yeah (which they will) they will sell 2.1 million in the first three days.

I wodnt be surprised if they sale 2.5 in the first three days.
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Demand for 4S is already less than the 4.

The IP4 launched in 5 countries simultaneously, US, UK, Japan, France, and Germany. Here in the US, it launched exclusively on AT&T. They got 600,000 pre-orders in the first 24 hrs.
http://www.gadgetvenue.com/apple-iphone-4-release-date-june-24-5-countries-06070029/
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20007906-260.html?tag=mncol;txt

The IP4S will be launching in 7 countries simultaneously, US, UK, Japan, France, Germany, Australia, and Canada. Here in the US, it will be launching on the 3 biggest carries as well, Verizon, Sprint, and good old AT&T. In Japan, KDDI Corp is a new carrier that will be launching the IP4S as well:

That is double the available markets that the IP4 launch. And yet pre-orders are 1M, less than double of the IP4.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20007906-260.html?tag=mncol;txt
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/11/uk-apple-iphone-idUSLNE79A02B20111011

If the IP4 sold 1.7 in the first 3 days, the 4S should sell 3.4M in the first 3 days as well with double the launch markets. I would be surprised if they hit that number considering pre-orders are down/given number of markets.
 
Double the launch markets does not equal double the potential customers.

1) More than likely carriers and countries coming on now are smaller
2) Many customers that wanted the iPhone have already jumped carriers, so the new carriers have fewer potential iPhone customers

Edit: These numbers seem to be for the iPhone 4S only. What about the now "free-on-contract" 3GS?

Apple has blown nothing.
 
Do you guys really think APPLE cares about what YOU really want? They care about $$$$. This is BIG BUSINESS, not drop every sick feature we can because that's what the 0.0000000001% of iphone fanboys want. They have SHAREHOLDERS and QUARTERLY EARNINGS. They are here to make money, not please the nerds by maxxing out every feature. Android phones are based on maxxing out everything from cameras, memory and screen sizes. The Iphone has an aesthetic feel to it that has been setting the bar for over 4 years. Why fix a machine that isn't broken?

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/apple_iphone_sales_pass_one_million_f0ATftjje2pJtbgAzzIjtO

People spent well over 300 million dollars on iphones the first of the 4S. They will release a 5 next year and they'll sell a million of those the first day too.


original iphone --> 3g --> 3gs --> 4 --> 4s --> 5 --> 5s... etc...


If apple said in 6/2010 when the 4 dropped that there would be NO new iphone for 2 years, would all of you complaining not bough the 4? Would you have said "im keeping this for one year then to spite apple I'm going to sell it" ??

Are you "punishing" apple by posting on a forum that your going to go with a competitor?

Alot of you people need to get a GRIP.
 
Geckotek said:
Double the launch markets does not equal double the potential customers.

1) More than likely carriers and countries coming on now are smaller
2) Many customers that wanted the iPhone have already jumped carriers, so the new carriers have fewer potential iPhone customers

Edit: These numbers seem to be for the iPhone 4S only. What about the now "free-on-contract" 3GS?

Apple has blown nothing.
Click to expand...
If double the launch markets doesn't equal double the number of potential customers, then they are definitely doing something wrong. In the US alone, they have triple the launch markets. Iphone pre-orders, sales, market share should be growing as new markets are opened.
 
Rhonen said:
If double the launch markets doesn't equal double the number of potential customers, then they are definitely doing something wrong. In the US alone, they have triple the launch markets. Iphone pre-orders, sales, market share should be growing as new markets are opened.
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:confused:

Your position assumes that "markets" are interchangeable and that each "market" or carrier is of equal size. None of which is actually true, of course.

I think it's certainly possible that less owners of the iPhone 4 are planning to upgrade than did from 3G-4, but that's to be expected and not really a big deal, IMO.
 
trouble747 said:
:confused:

Your position assumes that "markets" are interchangeable and that each "market" or carrier is of equal size. None of which is actually true, of course.

I think it's certainly possible that less owners of the iPhone 4 are planning to upgrade than did from 3G-4, but that's to be expected and not really a big deal, IMO.
Click to expand...

It's not just people upgrading. It's new markets, where the iphone was previously not available, being able to order the iphone for the first time. Sprint alone is a big one in the US. Verizon has just as big a customer base as AT&T.

So you are correct, the markets are not interchangeable since new markets added should be worth more pre-orders than the older markets.

And if less people are willing to upgrade, that reinforces the original OP that the 4S blew it/was a disappointment because people didn't feel it was worth the upgrade.
 
Rhonen said:
If double the launch markets doesn't equal double the number of potential customers, then they are definitely doing something wrong. In the US alone, they have triple the launch markets. Iphone pre-orders, sales, market share should be growing as new markets are opened.
Click to expand...

What part of "the markets are smaller" did you not understand? Number of markets does not necessarily translate into = population.

Edit: Show me exactly how in the US they have triple the launch markets.

Let's get our wording straight first, a market in terms of wireless would be more of a geographical area. So there is no increase in market in the US. Most US customers have always had access to the iPhone so the market has not changed. What has changed is the customer now has more selection in carriers to chose from. Yes, this did increase the potential customer base a bit due to lack of coverage in some areas or loyal customers that wouldn't leave their carrier, but it's certainly not triple. Even if you count the number of users on Sprint and Verizon, it's still not triple AT&T's user base.

Rhonen said:
And if less people are willing to upgrade, that reinforces the original OP that the 4S blew it/was a disappointment because people didn't feel it was worth the upgrade.
Click to expand...

"willing" or "unable" - Most iPhone 4 customers are unable to upgrade at this time.

Nothing is blown. You have put up no numbers that prove otherwise.
 
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Rhonen said:
If double the launch markets doesn't equal double the number of potential customers, then they are definitely doing something wrong. In the US alone, they have triple the launch markets. Iphone pre-orders, sales, market share should be growing as new markets are opened.
Click to expand...

That's just silly and a fail at understanding simple economics. You're imposing these ridiculous assumptions - size of individual carrier market, disposable income distribution, gender distribution, age demographics, tastes and preferences across distinct geographies are ALL the same.
 
skinnylegs said:
@switching to Android.....

When you get bored of playing with the widgets on your home screen, which should last about an hour; let me know how that works out for you.

I get the distinct feeling that the vast majority of people that make comments such as OP did have never really used an Android phone for any length of time.

About six months ago I bought the latest and greatest Android phone just to see what it was all about. I *think* it was the Infuse but I really can't remember. I do know that it had a huge screen. So, I did what most iPhone users would have done and loaded a bunch of widgets on my home screen. Funny thing is that I got bored with them rather quickly and by the second day I removed all but the weather widget because they got in the way of what I really use my phone for. So much for widgets. The first thing I noticed was lack of visual voicemail. Are you kidding me? How can a "state-of-the-art" smartphone not have this? I called a buddy of mine who told me to go to the Android Marketplace and download <insert pay> for a VV app. Easy enough. Only, there are a bazillion of them and you really don't know which one is the best. Furthermore, it's not like you simply install it and it works. I finally figured out how to set it up only to find out it didn't work all of the time.
Wonderful. So now I have a VV app. that works some of the time. The browser and email client? Clunky and IMO pretty darn ugly. ...but I have widgets on my home screen! LOL I could go on and on but I have never been so underwhelmed in my life. After three days my Android phone ended up on Craigslist. Funny thing is that I had always liked my iPhone but I had never appreciated just how nice it really is until I used an Android phone.

I will be the first to say that your mileage may vary but this was my experience. See you in the lines at Fashion Valley in San Diego on Friday!
Click to expand...

I have jailbroken iPhone 3GS (about to be 4S), my girlfriend has an Android (Droid X). The one thing that constantly strikes me about the Android phone is how we're constantly tweaking and downloading things (voicemail apps, text messaging apps, browser apps, etc.) to get the phone to where it's easily usable for her and stable enough not to bomb out on her at work.

When Android works well, it's a fantastic phone OS. The trouble, for me at least, is that it doesn't work well right out of the box (which is a problem b/c my GF isn't nearly as tech savvy as I am) and it requires a lot of trial and error (and a fair amount of online forum browsing) to get working the way you want.

Me? I prefer the iOS w/ a jailbreak. Everything works perfectly, and I tweak the one or two things that bother me. My GF is switching to iPhone when her contract comes up in December.

Can't talk crap about Android, it just doesn't work well for her or for me. If it's your thing, more power to you.
 
Will Apple blow it two years from now when the next "S" model comes out without any external changes, or again two years after that?
 
Geckotek said:
What part of "the markets are smaller" did you not understand? Number of markets does not necessarily translate into = population.

Edit: Show me exactly how in the US they have triple the launch markets.

Let's get our wording straight first, a market in terms of wireless would be more of a geographical area. So there is no increase in market in the US. Most US customers have always had access to the iPhone so the market has not changed. What has changed is the customer now has more selection in carriers to chose from. Yes, this did increase the potential customer base a bit due to lack of coverage in some areas or loyal customers that wouldn't leave their carrier, but it's certainly not triple. Even if you count the number of users on Sprint and Verizon, it's still not triple AT&T's user base.



"willing" or "unable" - Most iPhone 4 customers are unable to upgrade at this time.

Nothing is blown. You have put up no numbers that prove otherwise.
Click to expand...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_wireless_communications_service_providers
AT&T 97M Subscribers
Verizon 102.2M Subscribers
Sprint 51M Subscribers

I did put up numbers, more than double the market, less than double the pre-orders. Where are your numbers that most iphone 4 customers are unable or willing to upgrade?
 
notbadn.jpg
 
Geckotek said:
Let's get our wording straight first, a market in terms of wireless would be more of a geographical area. So there is no increase in market in the US. Most US customers have always had access to the iPhone so the market has not changed. What has changed is the customer now has more selection in carriers to chose from. Yes, this did increase the potential customer base a bit due to lack of coverage in some areas or loyal customers that wouldn't leave their carrier, but it's certainly not triple. Even if you count the number of users on Sprint and Verizon, it's still not triple AT&T's user base.
Click to expand...

Exactly.
 
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Pundits just are panning this latest iPhone.

After building feature wish lists for months, furiously posting rumors in forums, and even mocking up Photoshopped prototypes of the new iPhone, Mac fans were today rewarded with… a slightly better iPhone. If the leap from first-gen iPhone to second could be considered a baby step, consider this one a fetal heart murmur, because Apple clearly had no idea how to shine up the product it launched a year ago.
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http://www.digitaltrends.com/apple/apple-iphone-3g-s-disappoints-at-2009-wwdc/

Sound familiar? Article was written about the 2+ year old 3Gs which still outsells almost everything except the iP4 as of a month ago.
 
Geckotek said:
Math fail

97 x 3 = 291M
102 + 51 = 153M

153M ≠ 291M

Yes, you put up numbers that failed to support your statement.
Click to expand...

97M , probably less, for the IP4 launch

97M + 102M + 51M = 250M for the IP4S launch

250M = 2.58X 97M, so saying it's triple the market isn't that off. That's why I clarified and said it was more than double. Your math, however, is way off.

I'm still waiting on your numbers that most IP4 owners aren't willing, or unable to upgrade.
 
Hahaha, how are my numbers off?

You skipped out on math class didn't you? Admit it. It's ok.

I don't need to prove how many ppl can't upgrade. It's a fact that many can't and I'm not trying to prove the iPhone 4S is a failure, you are.

Edit: And this is just the US market. You have still failed to prove that the global market has doubled in the number of subscribers able to purchase an iPhone 4S.

To be fair, that's probably an unrealistic expectation. I'm sure it would take a ton of research. Why don't you just give up and admit that the market has not doubled. Just clarify your statement and state that the number of carriers has increased significantly. This still fails to justify your argument that the 4S is a failure, but at least you will be making a statement that isn't so blatantly wrong.

And like others have pointed out, you have completely ignored so many market factors that affect such things. This is obviously not your area of expertise so you should just drop it.
 
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Rhonen said:
97M , probably less, for the IP4 launch

97M + 102M + 51M = 250M for the IP4S launch

250M = 2.58X 97M, so saying it's triple the market isn't that off. That's why I clarified and said it was more than double. Your math, however, is way off
Click to expand...

How do you keep ignoring all the faults in your logic? Sprint and Verizon customers were perfectly capable of buying an iPhone 4. They just had to switch carriers. And then there is all the people not on the big 3 carriers that could have bought an iPhone in the US. The size of the market has not doubled. Apple has just lowered the barrier to entry.

I'm still waiting on your numbers that most IP4 owners aren't willing, or unable to upgrade.
Click to expand...

Are you unaware that most iPhones sold in the US carry a 2 year contract?
 
I love how all the posters in this thread who were disappointed and talking about how Apple is done because they didn't release a new design, if you read their most recent posts, they say things like, "My iPhone 4S has shipped!"
 
Geckotek said:
Hahaha, how are my numbers off?

You skipped out on math class didn't you? Admit it. It's ok.

I don't need to prove how many ppl can't upgrade. It's a fact that many can't and I'm not trying to prove the iPhone 4S is a failure, you are.

Edit: And this is just the US market. You have still failed to prove that the global market has doubled in the number of subscribers able to purchase an iPhone 4S.

To be fair, that's probably an unrealistic expectation. I'm sure it would take a ton of research. Why don't you just give up and admit that the market has not doubled. Just clarify your statement and state that the number of carriers has increased significantly. This still fails to justify your argument that the 4S is a failure, but at least you will be making a statement that isn't so blatantly wrong.

And like others have pointed out, you have completely ignored so many market factors that affect such things. This is obviously not your area of expertise so you should just drop it.
Click to expand...
It's ok, I see you failed reading comprehension as well as math. The CURRENT US market available for the iphone is 250M. The market during the IP4 launch wass 97M. The current iphone market of 250M is more than double, 2.58 X's, actually, than the market was at the IP4 launch.

It's rather hypocritical of you to ask for numbers to back up my claim, then say you don't need to provide any to back up yours. It's even worse when you question my math when you obviously do not understand what "more than double the market" means.
 
NoHo said:
I love how all the posters in this thread who were disappointed and talking about how Apple is done because they didn't release a new design, if you read their most recent posts, they say things like, "My iPhone 4S has shipped!"
Click to expand...

LOL, but seriously...just an incremental upgrade Apple! Come on $@%!#

oh look, yippee, my iPhone 4S has shipped :p

now will you excuse, I have to go refresh UPS every couple of minutes...
 
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