What's the net revenue impact of free membership that marginally doesn't cost Apple anything? It can only be a net positive, since it will have some positive impact on hardware sales, which increases revenue. This is in addition to the billions in revenue brought in from paid subscriptions to new service. There's no actual negative impact to revenue as he suggests. If it helps, think of it this way, at the end of the year, will Apple have more or less revenue by giving away some free subscriptions? The answer is, of course, "more." He made his error by forgetting that Apple owned the IP in its entirety that it was giving away, so there was no cost borne by Apple by do so.
You still don't understand what the analyst was saying. He is NOT saying there will be an impact in the overall revenue (but it could), but will have a material impact in the Hardware revenue due to Apple reallocating some of the hardware sale to the "free" aTV+. I will make it simple for you.
Let's talk the example of buying a Xs last year versus a 11Pro this year. Both sold/sell for $1000. Last year, when you bought a Xs, Apple recognized $1000 in hardware revenue (while not exactly true, Apple was already allocating some hardware sales to Services, but let's ignore that as it doesn't change the theory.) This year, when you buy a 11Pro, Apple ONLY recognizes $940 in hardware revenue and now recognizes an additional $60 in Services. So, Apple's hardware sales goes down and services go up an equal amount. So, yes you are right, their total revenue is the same, but Apple is still highly leveraged to their Hardware sales. So, a drop in revenue will be noticed.
There are also a couple of other assumptions in your post that are likely not true:
What's the net revenue impact of free membership that marginally doesn't cost Apple anything?
That is false statement. First of all, there is always going to be incremental cost in delivery costs (hardware, bandwidth, processing, etc.) While not huge, it is also not ZERO. In addition, without knowing the terms of the deals Apple has made with Studios/Actors/Directors, you can't assume that there isn't some revenue sharing based on views. Very likely, much like streaming music, there is some payments based views.
It can only be a net positive, since it will have some positive impact on hardware sales, which increases revenue.
How many people are going to buy an iPhone JUST to save $60 per year? Very little. Apple might see a small impact on their AppleTV sales, but I doubt the number of iPhone sold is affected by any significant margin due to a free AppleTV+ subscription. To most it will be just be a nice add-in.
If it helps, think of it this way, at the end of the year, will Apple have more or less revenue by giving away some free subscriptions? The answer is, of course, "more."
Interesting financial analysis. Give something away for free = more revenue? Not sure you thought that through. Apple is giving up a LOT of potential revenue by giving this away for free. The most likely subscribers will be Apple's most loyal users. There will be a large overlap with people who buy Apple product this year and get the free subscription. While I am sure Apple will never disclose the numbers, I would be curious at the end of next fiscal year, how many people were paying customers and how many were "free" customer. I would bet the number of "free" customers will be greater than paid customer. And, I mean the number of customers that pay continuously, not just pay one month, binge the one show they are interested in, and then cancel.
With all the being said, I will make two points:
1) I disagree with the analyst that this will have a material impact on Apple's stock price. Apple's stock is pretty solid right now. It can weather a "bad" quarterly report or two. Apple is committed to making Services a bigger part of their portfolio. (Now, I don't think all their ideas will pan out.)
2) This free trial is a good way for Apple to weather the growing pains of their new service. Face it, compared to Disney+, AppleTV+ is lacking. Apple will have to find a way to build up a stable of programs that will encourage people to keep subscribing versus just subscribing, binging, and cancelling.