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That analyst is clueless. He has no idea how powerful, how entrapping and addicting the Apple Ecosystem is. Once Apple customers get sucked into the Apple Ecosystem, it's very difficult to bail out. And often it starts with a Free Trial. Remember all the clueless analysts that said Apple Music would fail? That it would never ever compete or catch up to Spotify etc? LOL

Apple Music also started with free trials. Give this advertising expense some time to produce an effect, then criticize.
 
While I do think what he's saying is a bit of a stretch, what he's proposing has nothing to do with not being clued in to the power of the ecosystem, as you're suggesting.

He's essentially saying that Apple's margin on products sold has effectively decreased. As now, paying $1,000 for an iPhone doesn't just get you an iPhone, like in previous years. It also gets you a $60 'credit' towards the Apple TV+ service. So basically, the iPhone gets a $60 price cut.

Given that iPhone is a major portion of Apple's revenue, that $60 price cut is significant and will materially decrease Apple's accounting profitability going forward.
There's a 0% chance the simple way you described will be how the accounting actually works.

Services (like cloud, Maps, iOS, etc) are already bundled within the price of an iPhone and have their own accounting rules. I can tell you working in finance that these things are literally too complicated for anyone except the team working on them (and even then it's hard) to fully understand.

I'm not attacking you either. I'm simply saying Apple has 100% thought this through and will not let this impact their hardware margins in any material way.

In fact, their own guidance suggests strong revenues and stable margins.
 
we don't know that he did or not. You're right, but apparently the assumption he's making is that the quantum of new subscriptions will be small compared to the $60 discount charge on every single iPhone and Apple TV sold.

You’re right that I don’t know if he did or not, but given Apple’s statement that they don’t believe it will be impactful I assume that they’ve done the accounting and run it by E&Y without issue. If not they’d be fools to put out the statement that they did.
 
This is a hilarious take from a clueless analyst.

I would like a detailed analysis on how exactly a service with $0 revenue today will impact earnings because they are giving it away (just a $60 retail value) for 1 year.

If have to give away a lot of free subscriptions, THEY ARE SELLING A LOT OF iPHONES too!
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They make $0 from Apple TV+ today and much of the money spent on it has already been spent. Apple has PLENTY of money to offer a free service for 12 months WITH the purchase of another Apple product.
accounting rules. You offer someone an incentive, you essentially give them a 'gift card' for the retail value of the service you're now offering for free.
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There's a 0% chance the simple way you described will be how the accounting actually works.

Services (like cloud, Maps, iOS, etc) are already bundled within the price of an iPhone and have their own accounting rules. I can tell you working in finance that these things are literally too complicated for anyone except the team working on them (and even then it's hard) to fully understand.

I'm not attacking you either. I'm simply saying Apple has 100% thought this through and will not let this impact their hardware margins in any material way.

In fact, their own guidance suggests strong revenues and stable margins.
No I agree with you. I think this is a stretch. I'm responding to OP's comment re: ecosystem.
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You’re right that I don’t know if he did or not, but given Apple’s statement that they don’t believe it will be impactful I assume that they’ve done the accounting and run it by E&Y without issue. If not they’d be fools to put out the statement that they did.

I agree with you. I think what he's saying is a stretch. I was responding to OP's comment re: ecosystem.
 
accounting rules. You offer someone an incentive, you essentially give them a 'gift card' for the retail value of the service you're now offering for free.
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No I agree with you. I think this is a stretch. I'm responding to OP's comment re: ecosystem.
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I agree with you. I think what he's saying is a stretch. I was responding to OP's comment re: ecosystem.
Yes, yes of course there is a value attached to it somewhere...but the methods you can use to "spread" it out, bundle it, and move other variables are literally endless.

If you ever think you understand accounting, go read one of GE's annual reports. The number of ways to report a number is shockingly huge. I don't even think GE understands what they did.
 
So are you only eligable for the free year if you buy a device after Apple TV + launches? Because I've bought a few apple devices this year including a MBA a month or two ago.
 
Such a strange professional relationship Goldman and Apple have.

Goldman: We back the Apple Card. Get it.
ALSO Goldman: Cuts the Apple stock target price. Don't get it.

As awkward as Apple and Samsung? One side they're suing each other for $6Billion dollars and on the other, Apple is using their displays in their iPhones?
 
This is how you manipulate a stock price.

By the way, the 26% is rather peculiar and Goldman should be heavily sanctioned when that doesn't occur. The Op-Ed division should be fined billions for it. That ``specific %'' cost Apple billions in valuation today.
 
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So are you only eligable for the free year if you buy a device after Apple TV + launches? Because I've bought a few apple devices this year including a MBA a month or two ago.

The footnote on Apple's TV+ marketing webpage says the following.

"... $4.99/month after free trial. One subscription per Family Sharing group. Offer good for 3 months after eligible device activation, starting November 1, 2019. Plan automatically renews until cancelled. Restrictions and other terms apply. ..."
https://www.apple.com/apple-tv-plus/

So have a 3 month window to activate after you buy. People who buy now should be covered by that windows. If Apple does the proper thing then they wouldn't start the 3 month window for folks now until Nov 2019. ( over a month where didn't have the option to use it if buy something today. )

But what the Analyst missed the boat completely on tis that after the 3 months the offer is gone. Apple won't be able to 'take' $60 for something they never provided.
 
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What I'm curious about is, do the subscriptions stack if you make multiple purchases? Does it start on day of purchase or day of registration?
Because there has already been 2 phones purchased. Very probably an iPad in before the end of the year. I'm very good on Macs at the moment though.
Apple has taken a GIANT chunk of my income this year.

It isn't entire clear. ( at least from what I've seen so far ).

"... $4.99/month after free trial. One subscription per Family Sharing group. Offer good for 3 months after eligible device activation, starting November 1, 2019. Plan automatically renews until cancelled. Restrictions and other terms apply. ..."
https://www.apple.com/apple-tv-plus/

Day the you claim the subscription. They won't automatically turn it in. if you don't claim it in 3 moths it disappears. ( this latter is a major goof by the analyst. That is going to make a difference. )


So one subscription per family group. That is a somewhat suggestive as can't claim multiple of these. ( or at least that person X can't get it if person Y on family group already has. )
 
You haven’t even seen the content yet but you crap on it. How cute.

Don’t take what he said literally.

The content could be excellent, but if Apple’s library is small, a certain percentage of people won’t value the service as being worth the full subscription price for a full year.

Watch for a year for free, switch over to Netflix/Hulu/Prime for a while, then when your series you like has episodes, binge them on AppleTV+ for $5 that year.

This is how it works for all the streaming services. A certain percentage of customers are nomads, so you estimate/calculate the ‘real’ amount the population values your service.
 
Anyone know how the free subscription will work? I’d be interested in gifting it my parents (the shows are more their style) but it’s probably tied to my Apple ID right?

Family Sharing might be the simple solution - add your parents to your family plan if you have one.

Maybe there are other ways - but I don't know. For apps, you can "gift" them, so maybe this can be gifted as well.
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What I'm curious about is, do the subscriptions stack if you make multiple purchases? Does it start on day of purchase or day of registration?
Because there has already been 2 phones purchased. Very probably an iPad in before the end of the year. I'm very good on Macs at the moment though.
Apple has taken a GIANT chunk of my income this year.

18 Core iMac Pro
8 Core iMac
8 Core MacBook Pro
6 Core MacBook Pro
6 Core Mac Mini
S5 SS Apple Watch
several watch bands, several phone cases
2 - iPhone 11 Pro Max
6 sets of AirPods w/ wireless cases

can I get like a decade of AppleTV+ Tim ?


Yeah I had the same sort of question - 2 iPhones and 1 Apple Watch means 3 years of Apple TV+ ?

I mean - it IS a $60 bonus value - but I would bet that they have some fine print that says "One Per Family, Per Year, Regardless of how many devices you bought"
 
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