Apple Encouraging Employees in Silicon Valley to Work From Home Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

[smirking]

Hold it, let's run some really rough numbers.

You're taking a measurement of a fairly stable disease number and comparing it to one that is still growing expontentially. This is like saying if I somehow manage to keep up with Usain Bolt for the first two meters of a 100m race, I'm going to run as fast as Usain Bolt.

Watch this video if you're truly interested in the math and why local governments are taking steps to limit large gatherings and reminding people to wash their hands.

If you don't care, I'll summarize. Left unchecked at the current day growth rate of 15% a day that is being seen, it will result in 60 million infected in 61 days and nobody will be comparing this to the seasonal flu.

If slowed by measures that retard the spread, to bring the growth rate down to just 5%, we'd only be looking at 411,000 infections two months. Unfortunately, success at controlling the outbreak would come with the side effect that people will continue to claim that it's not as dangerous as the seasonal flu.

 

[Exponent]

If slowed by measures that retard the spread, to bring the growth rate down to just 5%, we'd only be looking at 411,000 infections two months. Unfortunately, success at controlling the outbreak would come with the side effect that people will continue to claim that it's not as dangerous as the seasonal flu.

Context: I was replying to someone who found the 133 deaths in Italy the other day non-comparable to what happens with the flu.

I'm all for taking measures to retard the spread - indeed, I'm not flying to take part in a critical family duty back in the midwest because I'd be dealing with family members who are in the most at-risk group for CV severe impact.

But we also can't panic ourselves into shutting down things more than warranted. Figure out what seems warranted, multiply by 1.5, err on the side of caution, and then MOVE ON WITH LIFE.

 

[1345873]

Hold it, let's run some really rough numbers. I'll state some assumptions, feel free to question them:

(US 2018 Flu Deaths) / (US Population) = 80,000 / 320,000,000 = 0.025 %
(Italian population) * (US annual flu death rate) = (60,000,000) * 0.025% = 15,000
Big assumption: Flu season ~= 4 months ~= 120 days
Therefore, daily Italian flu deaths during flu season = 15,000 / 120 = 125

125 "back of the envelope" flu deaths and 133 "real news" COVID-19 deaths are pretty comparable. (If indeed my assumptions are near-correct, and I'm not having MSNBC calculate my math…)

Except, if like now only a small portion of the Italian people are affected? Your calculation is running over with assumptions.
There’s only one fact: we do not know! So everything you say has no value, Stop creating/spreading fake news/calculations. Instead help try and fight the virus anyway you can.

 

[smirking]

But we also can't panic ourselves into shutting down things more than warranted. Figure out what seems warranted, multiply by 1.5, err on the side of caution, and then MOVE ON WITH LIFE.

I haven't seen anything other than mass gatherings shut down so far. Figuring it out and erring on the side of caution is exactly what is being attempted here. Hopefully we'll figure out exactly how it's being transmitted in the next few weeks so we can come up with low risk recommendations that don't cut back too much.

If people are walking around going "nah nah nah, it's just the flu," we are so screwed. They're just going to go right on spreading and it'll take even longer to get back to normal.

 

[dampfnudel]

The WHO recently commented on that. They had a panel of 25 international experts weigh in on that and they think the cases where someone got reinfected wasn't actually what it appeared. It was instead that they were still infected and were inappropriately discharged because the test wasn't properly administered.

They do believe that you have immunity after you've recovered, but they don't know permanent the immunity is.

That’s good to know. Of course, viruses are known to mutate, but let’s hope for the best.

 

[cocky jeremy]

Yeah, go with that.

Meanwhile, doctors are discovering this causes irreversible and permanent lung damage to some.

Peanut butter can kill some people. That doesn't make it a major issue.

 

[jerryk]

They can't postpone WWDC. Developers need to work on the beta as soon as possible, so if iOS 14 is scheduled for September, beta needs to be distributed in June. They could delay it for a couple of weeks, but it wouldn't make a huge difference as far as the virus is concerned.
They'll do it online only

Agree with the online version. Easier on the presenters and logistics. No need to deal with catering, badges, gift bags, etc. They may even open it up to developers that could not get a ticket, or afford to travel to SF. Could turn out to be a win-win.

There is a Google ML Developer conference scheduled for this Wednesday. But I did not get one of the few tickets. But now that it is virtual, we have larger group of people watching the conference and discussing things in real time via Google Hangouts. Should be a fun and interesting time, with people from around the globe "in attendance". Great that we have the technology to make this work and organize this virtual conference in a few of days
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That’s good to know. Of course, viruses are known to mutate, but let’s hope for the best.

Fortunately it appears COVID-19 has a low viable mutation rate.

 

[ksnell]

Stop spreading this garbage. You are linking to a UK sensationalist click-bait rag that loves to create fake news and hysteria for the purpose of selling ads.

Fake news is a problem. By linking to it, you are part of the problem.

Did you even read the article? These are findings from medical research, so wouldn't that make you part of the problem denying science? Why not let the medical professionals do their work and we can observe?

Below is the initial interview they reference.

Autopsies offer key clues for early stage COVID-19 patients - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn