Apple Gearing Up for iPhone 5 Production Ahead of Summer Launch? [Updated]

[gnasher729]

You people just don't get this, do you?

Apple _ Does _ Not _ Make _ New _ Products _ Bigger

I think Apple will continue in an old Steve Jobs tradition: Apple will _never_ do many things. Until they do them.

Now with the screen size, what should be obvious is that some people prefer a smaller phone, and some prefer a larger phone, and the first group think that smaller is better, and the second group think that larger is better. A much large screen on the iPhone 5 would make some people happy, and it would make some people unhappy. Apple probably has some idea which group is bigger. Competitors will want to build phones with a size that is _different_ from the iPhone size, whatever the iPhone size is, because that way one of the two groups will prefer their phone.

Since Apple has been selling 37 million iPhones in the last quarter, they could probably produce an iPhone 5 (old size) and an iPhone 5 XL (identical in any way, except with the biggest m*********ing screen of any phone around).

Actually, Apple is largely concerned about sustaining and surpassing earnings over the year. To do that, product announcements have to be spread out over the four quarters.

Excuse me, but that is total nonsense. If there is one company that has demonstrated for the last ten years that they don't give a damn about earnings and pleasing the stock market, it is Apple. (That's the paradox that many CEOs don't get, that the more you try to please the stock market and not the customers, the less success you have in the long run).

 

[SactoGuy18]

HAHAHAHA.... You're kidding, Right? I think you need to go design for Android or Ballmer. Apple isn't gonna write a bloated iOS and anyone with brains won't write a bloated app. The iDevices hardware is optimized with the software to prevent battery drain. Apple takes that into high consideration, something other manufacturers just throw more RAM and MHz and cores at.

I'd almost agree, but most people out there agree Apple hasn't incorporated 3GPP LTE and NFC due to the fact current production chipsets that support these features still consume WAY too much battery power.

But now that both Broadcom and Qualcomm will release now LTE-enabled chipsets with a very small fraction of the power consumption compared to current chipsets, that makes it possible for Apple to finally put in 3GPP LTE and still meet Apple's tight standards for battery life. With many cell carriers now starting to implement LTE around the world (including the cellphone savvy Japanese and South Korea markets), I expect the new iPhone to include LTE and NFC (given that NFC mobile payments are very common in Japan and South Korea and now the major carriers here in the USA will soon roll out the Isis mobile payment system).

 

[SkippyThorson]

Very hard. I once accidentaly put my iPhone on the table, couldn't pick it up for a week.

This is - by far - the greatest comment of 2012. Disregard that we're only in January. It won't be beat.

 

[Krauser]

4+ inch screen? I don't see it. I see 4" maximum from the next iPhone and that is if they change it at all. The Droid Incredible 2 I had for a little while (great phone before I ultimately returned it because I needed the 64GB capacity the 4S offered) had a 4" screen and, to be honest, it was pretty much perfect. 4.3" is a little too large to be comfortable in one hand (my Droid X was nice for watching things and multimedia but a little on the hefty side for one handed operation. It only made up for it because it was 16x9 so it wasn't much wider than the current iPhone screen even though it was much taller) and 3.5" is a little on the small side even though I rather like the pocket-ability of my 4S. It is a phone after all. 3.7" and 4" are prime for a smartphone in my opinion and if Apple did that, I could see it happening.

What concerns me is fragmentation. A 4+" iPhone would be a different resolution (because I highly doubt Apple would lose the retina display to keep the same resolution to obtain a higher screen size). As I see it, they have 2 options:
1. Larger screen with same resolution to keep developers happy and maintain continuity.
2. Larger screen with higher resolution to maintain retina certification by Apple but requiring developers to change their resolution for their apps.
2. Slightly larger screen (3.7") with the same resolution to keep the device retina but still gain a slightly larger screen.

I can't see them going the route of option 1. It makes sense developmentally, but from a marketing standpoint, it's a step backward. I could see them taking option 2 (they did it to the iPhone 4 when they moved from the 3GS' resolution) but that was a 4X increase and, with a pixel being the way it is, it was easily worked around in the sense that they pixel doubled all available apps with little degradation until developers simply caught up. Option 3 seems to be the most likely. I believe that a 3.7" screen can maintain the same retina resolution but become slightly larger. If I remember correctly, the PPI of the iPhone 4/4S' screen is "comfortably above" the level needed to be considered retina, so a slight increase in screen size should allow to remain within the retina certifications but still keep the same resolution... or I could be completely wrong...

 

[weqtor]

naming convention...

iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S..... iPhone 5?

You are forgetting about the original iPhone.

 

[TallManNY]

I think the only reason Apple will go with the larger screen is if it needs the bigger battery space for an LTE chip set. Apple likes to make things small as it is one of their manufacturing advantages. Also this is a portable device that must go in a pocket and generally speaking it must go in a front pocket that has either a wallet or keys in there with it.

Also, people talk about Apple needing to make the phone worthy of an upgrade over 4S. I really think you are setting the bar too high if you think a phone must be upgraded every year. Engaging in that sort of an upgrade cycle really seems like a luxury.

 

[PackFan]

You are forgetting about the original iPhone.

Yup -

And I highly doubt Apple will debut iOS6 on something they would call the iPhone 5 - which is really the 6th iPhone...

 

[pmeisman]

This always frustrates me...

The iPhone 4s is the iPhone 5... Here's the Linage:

iPhone
iPhone 3G
iPhone 3Gs
iPhone 4
iPhone 4s

And up next...
iPhone (6th iteration)


iPhone has literally only been named for the iteration that it was once, with the iPhone 4. At best the next iPhone would be called with the iPhone 6 or the iPhone 4G.

 

[chrmjenkins]

The iPhone 4s is the iPhone 5... Here's the Linage:

iPhone
iPhone 3G
iPhone 3Gs
iPhone 4
iPhone 4s

And up next...
iPhone (6th iteration)


iPhone has literally only been named for the iteration that it was once, with the iPhone 4. At best the next iPhone would be called with the iPhone 6 or the iPhone 4G.

I think the complicating factors with the "4G" name is that the 4 would imply a certain hardware look, and Apple has never stuck with the same hardware exterior for more than 2 phones. Also, they have distanced themselves from 4G branding, touching the HSPA+ speeds of the AT&T version but stopping short of calling it '4G'.

 

[Rocketman]

I wouldn't be super surprised to see a similar form factor phone (whatever the external dimensions) be called iPhone 4G if it has "real 4G". However the LTE consortium and their collegues recently declared only evolved LTE is "true 4G". So we are a very long way from actual 4G.

HSPA+ and LTE basic are plenty fast for most uses but the network congestion issue is so predominant, I expect to see LTE as a congestion reduction scheme since it can support more users with higher bandwidth connections.

The government has its foot firmly placed in the path of the walk of the carriers and there is no hope of that changing any time soon. So what they have right now is what we should count on for the next 3 years or so. They can build out backhaul and parallel transceivers at existing sites, but the growth of sites or frequencies is government crippled.

Rocketman

 

[xgman]

The poll, for what it's worth) on 9to5 shows overwhelming support for the 4" size.

 

[PackFan]

Also - calling the next iPhone the iPhone 5 is about equivalent with calling the next XBox the XBox 2!

1. XBox
2. XBox 360
3. XBox 2!! ??

 

[chrmjenkins]

The poll, for what it's worth) on 9to5 shows overwhelming support for the 4" size.

14,000 enthusiast users versus 37M iphone sales last quarter worth. Obviously some of those users might want a bigger screen, but the internet represents a vocal enthusiast minority.

 

[SandynJosh]

I'd almost agree, but most people out there agree Apple hasn't incorporated 3GPP LTE and NFC due to the fact current production chipsets that support these features still consume WAY too much battery power.

But now that both Broadcom and Qualcomm will release now LTE-enabled chipsets with a very small fraction of the power consumption compared to current chipsets, that makes it possible for Apple to finally put in 3GPP LTE and still meet Apple's tight standards for battery life. With many cell carriers now starting to implement LTE around the world (including the cellphone savvy Japanese and South Korea markets), I expect the new iPhone to include LTE and NFC (given that NFC mobile payments are very common in Japan and South Korea and now the major carriers here in the USA will soon roll out the Isis mobile payment system).

You make some good points. Apple's recent quarterly report had Japan broken out from the rest of Asia (even China was folded in with SE Asia), this might be a clue to Apple being focused on the Japanese market while talking about China's market.

 

[deconstruct60]

Do you really think announcing a few weeks earlier is going to do anything substantial?

Who said anything about announcing early? In fact, I was stating the opposite. Keep the September (Fall) classical iPod announce date and instead of starting to make iPhones in July/August, start in June/July.

When they announce availability for sale is decoupled when they start to produce them in substantive volume. What this rumor is trying to claim was that the start of production has a fixed window lead time to the announcement. If start earlier then have to announce earlier. That is a core problem contributing to why availability get worse with each launch. If Apple is committed to a fixed window then they are committed to not fixing the problem.

I'm not talking about the line ups and scarcity on day one. It is the longer term scarcity that continues for weeks afterwards. Apple can trivially get rid of the extended backlog by just making more. That's how they work their way out of it later. So a trivial solution is to start a several weeks earlier so that exit out of the backlog sooner.

Additionally, if Apple makes the scarcity windows smaller they will drive out more of the scalpers. Now it has the opposite effect. Because it gets worse each time they attract more scalpers who just want to flip the product into the hands of customers at a profit. Those people are not Apple's real customers and they do a disservice to those real customers by encouraging more scalpers to enter the process.

 

[deconstruct60]

Excuse me, but that is total nonsense. If there is one company that has demonstrated for the last ten years that they don't give a damn about earnings and pleasing the stock market, it is Apple. (That's the paradox that many CEOs don't get, that the more you try to please the stock market and not the customers, the less success you have in the long run).

No, that is complete nonsense. If Apple didn't believe in increasing stock price why to they hand out so many options/grants to the executives ?

Why did they reprice options for employees when the stock was in the crapper?
".... He followed it up by admitting that the stock price was terrible (it was under $10, I think pretty sure it was under $2 split-adjusted), and that what they were going to do was reissue everyone's options on the low price, but with a new 3 year vest. "
http://articles.businessinsider.com...employees-fred-anderson-sculley#ixzz1kbCCScmK

Why did every speech that Jobs give over last several years start off with a "millons and billions" section. We grew this much. We are biggest mobile device company. We have many more millions sold. ....... All of that was a sales pitch that says "Buy Apple Stock". They weren't being extremely overt but that is primarily why it was there.


Apple is not interested in short term tweaks to the stock price. They are absolutely interested in long term increases in the stock price though. They aren't going to put a short term bubble gain in front of better product. But they certainly aren't going to tolerate a product that doesn't show desired profit margins.


Apple has nuked printer, XRAID , XServe , etc. etc. products. mainly because they don't show growth and Apple can leverage a value add to the product. There were not killed because they were "bad" products. That "value add" brings margins. Margins are earnings.


The believe is more so "make great products and people will buy them" and then we can charge a healthy price for them and grow our share of devices sold. Other companies run into problems where execs through long term results under the bus to cash out on a shorter term gain.


If Apple's stock price wasn't growing rapidly there is no way they could sit on the 10's of billions in cash. To get the stockholders to ignore the withheld profits Apple absolutely had to distract them with success by other means: including stock price.

 

[xgman]

14,000 enthusiast users versus 37M iphone sales last quarter worth. Obviously some of those users might want a bigger screen, but the internet represents a vocal enthusiast minority.

Statistical sampling though. In any case there is a reason that everyone is making larger phones. People want them. Wait and see . . .

 

[chrmjenkins]

Statistical sampling though. In any case there is a reason that everyone is making larger phones. People want them. Wait and see . . .

According to iphone sales numbers, people like 3.5" just fine too.

 

[Rennir]

Statistical sampling though. In any case there is a reason that everyone is making larger phones. People want them. Wait and see . . .

It wasn't a statistical sample...it was a survey that is influenced by response bias, among other things. People who felt very strongly about the issue would answer the poll while others who didn't feel as strongly wouldn't waste that time. Naturally the people who want a 4 inch screen would be more vocal about their demands than people who want it to remain the same.

If you want to statistically prove that a majority of a certain region/country's Apple customers want a 4 inch screen, you need a simple random sample.

 

[ChrisTX]

Also - calling the next iPhone the iPhone 5 is about equivalent with calling the next XBox the XBox 2!

1. XBox
2. XBox 360
3. XBox 2!! ??

For the record, it's already rumored to be called the XBox 720.

 

[PackFan]

For the record, it's already rumored to be called the XBox 720.

I kind of doubt it... People are using the '720' name just because it is twice 360. I doubt it will really be called that...

 

[Hungerfellow]

I think the complicating factors with the "4G" name is that the 4 would imply a certain hardware look, and Apple has never stuck with the same hardware exterior for more than 2 phones. Also, they have distanced themselves from 4G branding, touching the HSPA+ speeds of the AT&T version but stopping short of calling it '4G'.

Maybe they should follow one of Microsoft's previous naming conventions and call it the iPhone 2012. At least in Apple's case they release one annually, so it would make sense! Or maybe because it'd be coming out late in the year they could use car companies' model-year conventions and call it the iPhone 2013, which would really mess people up!

 

[greenmeanie]

I wonder if other companies will sue them for copying them with a bigger screen?

 

[malman89]

I kind of doubt it... People are using the '720' name just because it is twice 360. I doubt it will really be called that...

Still be immensely better than the Xbox2, seeing as it would be the 3rd Xbox console.

I see the iPhone going up to a 4" screen size at maximum. They're never going to cater to the demographic that wants large screens in order to sacrifice phone size.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Still be immensely better than the Xbox2, seeing as it would be the 3rd Xbox console.

I see the iPhone going up to a 4" screen size at maximum. They're never going to cater to the demographic that wants large screens in order to sacrifice phone size.

Problem is the demographic who wants the small screen size is shrinking all the time.