Sure, writable Blu-Ray discs cost a lot now, but your logic is well... illogical. This is an example of the transitive property: If a 500GB drive costs $100 dollars now, and if a larger drive costs $100 in the coming future, then a 500 GB drive in the coming future costs less than $100 dollars (end of transitive property). By this logic, hard drive prices drop in cost as time goes on, would it be illogical to think that writable blu-ray discs won't either? I mean it is a piece of plastic which costs a fraction of a cent to press. CD-R's, when first released, were around $20 a disc (maybe more), now we can purchase a spindle of 100 DVD's for $0.10 a disc... so blu-ray discs will most likely be in the several cent range in the coming years.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Apple in Talks with Sony about Blu-ray Drives
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Sure, writable Blu-Ray discs cost a lot now, but your logic is well... illogical. This is an example of the transitive property: If a 500GB drive costs $100 dollars now, and if a larger drive costs $100 in the coming future, then a 500 GB drive in the coming future costs less than $100 dollars (end of transitive property). By this logic, hard drive prices drop in cost as time goes on, would it be illogical to think that writable blu-ray discs won't either? I mean it is a piece of plastic which costs a fraction of a cent to press. CD-R's, when first released, were around $20 a disc (maybe more), now we can purchase a spindle of 100 DVD's for $0.10 a disc... so blu-ray discs will most likely be in the several cent range in the coming years.
To be honest, who doesn't replace his hard drives every 4 to 5 years? Would you still be able to store all your data on the hard drive you had 5 years ago?
We all buy new, bigger drives at some point, fill it up with the data from the previous drive, and donate/sell the old, smaller drive. I, for one, wouldn't want to waste space on my desk for a 40 or 80GB drive. I currently have a 1TB external drive for my CDs and DVDs, a 500GB Time Capsule for my system backups and yet another 250GB drive for company files.
As for Blu-Ray, it has already begun to suffer the same fate as CD's for backups: you already need at least a couple of discs for a complete backup, which is a non-starter. It doesn't matter if a rewritable Blu-Ray disc only costs 5$ if I need a dozen or so for a complete system/data backup.
We've all become lazy with handling media. The iPod,
TV and Time Capsule are all proof of this. Either it's all automatic or most people won't bother with it.As for Flash catching up to magnetic or optical media, it's still too expensive or even unavailable. Hard drives still provide the cheapest, biggest storage solution for the time being.
If the MacBook Air's SSD drive is any indication (1300$US for 64GB) it's that while solid-state storage is the future, it's still too expensive and doesn't have enough storage capacity. Given "Moore's Law" however, it could start to change in about 5 to 10 years.
If Seagate, Western Digital and cie. stand still for 5 to 10 years, that is.
Come on dude, now you're trying to argue for arguing sake. My logic can't be illogical if you use it to prove why you think my logic is illogical.... and it's not illogical so your statement is all jacked up.
I am not saying that BR won't come down in price... all I was saying is that the cost to back up 100GB on BR is $100 while you can get a 500GB drive for that price and backup more.
Nothing else!
Read Yvan256's post above.
I agree, but it also depends on humidity, direct sunlight, etc.
Personally, I wouldn't let a disk more than 25yrs but at that, will there even BE optical drives 25yrs from now to read your data from?
They've already BEEN out in laptops. Albeit these are media center laptops, but they have them, just not slot loading.
I was merely pointing out that your conclusions didn't make too much sense, in my opinion. Burnable Blu-ray discs are not economical for the typical user (yet), but the price drop in optical media falls at a far greater rate than that of magnetic media... and history is my proof of that...
And now for something completely different.
Yeah I'd dig a BD burner, but maybe waiting a year or two for the price of an external to drop is the way to go... I do want that new iMac people have been talking about, wether or not it has a Blu-Ray option.
Yeah I'd dig a BD burner, but maybe waiting a year or two for the price of an external to drop is the way to go... I do want that new iMac people have been talking about, wether or not it has a Blu-Ray option.
They've already BEEN out in laptops. Albeit these are media center laptops, but they have them, just not slot loading.
I didn't know that, but I was mainly basing that statement on the upcoming Macs...
You're right... and sorry, I was still a bit fired up from the last post.
Please accept my deepest apologies.That is correct, but like you did say... the price of both will come down (as demand decreases) so users will still be left with both options, and HDDs will be the more economical choice for archiving, even if the medium only lasts a safe 6-10 years.
BR discs are still perfect for games, movies and more likely software distribution. Instead of putting Final Cut Studio on 4 DVDs, they can be on 1, and Apple may even have the large and heavy manuals for order, or PDF download, making the box a lot smaller and lighter to carry out of the store.
This assumes a relatively constant cost of production. In the case of technological changes such as this one, the increased uptake of BR will lead to research to reduce the cost of production, thus shifting the supply curve outwards, and possibly decreasing prices:
They've already BEEN out in laptops. Albeit these are media center laptops, but they have them, just not slot loading.
Just for the record.... there are slot loading BR disc drives.....
http://store.fastmac.com/product_info.php?products_id=338
But look at that PRICE!
$1000
Can my current MBP play HD-DVD disks?
I thought one of the benefits of HD-DVD is that is used existing DVD technology and the only difference was that it used a different CODEC - H.264 and/or Windows Media (VC-1). Is that correct?
I know my PC buddies have been able to play HD-DVD material.
Can I on a MacBook Pro?
Can I buy some of the now discounted HD-DVD movies and play them back using my MBP?
Thanks!!
I thought one of the benefits of HD-DVD is that is used existing DVD technology and the only difference was that it used a different CODEC - H.264 and/or Windows Media (VC-1). Is that correct?
I know my PC buddies have been able to play HD-DVD material.
Can I on a MacBook Pro?
Can I buy some of the now discounted HD-DVD movies and play them back using my MBP?
Thanks!!
This assumes a relatively constant cost of production. In the case of technological changes such as this one, the increased uptake of BR will lead to research to reduce the cost of production, thus shifting the supply curve outwards, and possibly decreasing prices:
Yeah... I mentioned it before... tech is different because it's always advancing... it takes that initial surge of buyers to get the capital for R&D then the prices come down, but only because of the benefits of improved R&D and manufacturing,
NOT
because of increased demand.... I am willing to say that by the time BR drives come down in price substantially there won't be much of a demand for them.
You're right... and sorry, I was still a bit fired up from the last post.
Accepted... it's always fun to make arguments on message boards...
Well yes, but are they offered in current MB/MBP configurations?
They are offered in other brand laptops but not yet Apple. Hopefully with good negotiation, we may be able to perhaps have a BTO MB/MBP with a BD-R/RW drive for maybe another $100-$300.
Well yes, but are they offered in current MB/MBP configurations?
I hope they do offer it, but I don't think it will be around $300. Maybe $799 or $899. And this drive is a writer and reader... not just the reader which does go for around $300.
Yes, but only when it's a good civil debate. With either FACTS, or well known opinions backing up the argument..... or should I say debate.
I don't know. I like it heavy. I feel like I am getting something substantial.
Amen, but the day I brought it home I had to carry it around the mall with the Significant Other, and for some reason it didn't dawn on me to drop it off at the car...
Yes because we all still have drives that are 10-20 years old. People replace their drives (even computers) more recently because it is fairly inexpensive to do so. Blu-ray disks will never replace hard drives (magnetic or flash) for mass storage. Can't network your Blu-ray backup. And you can store your external drive off site as well. So that was a poor point.
1080i or 1080p is irrelevant. We are talking about APPLE including Blu-ray in their products. Last time I checked, Apple doesn't make home entertainment equipment other than Apple TV which is never going to be combined with a Blu-ray player. Viewing even 720p on a iMac, MB, MBP or Mac Pro with Cinema Displays is a waste until Apple develops newer high definition displays. The size of the displays is too small to make the best of Blu-ray. And then you bring up sound. Can you please tell me which Apple product has superior sound? Only Apple TV. Maybe the Mac Pro will get HDMI output support but that will be it.
Anyone that needs a Blu-ray burner should buy an external one. Wanting one to watch movies on your Mac is a waste of money.
I hope they do offer it, but I don't think it will be around $300. Maybe $799 or $899. And this drive is a writer and reader... not just the reader which does go for around $300.
I could live with a BD-ROM/DVD-RW DL if it was a $200 upgrade. I'm terribly optimistic that because Apple is on the Board of Directors for the Blu-ray Consortium, that they may be able to better negotiate cheaper prices for creation of BD-R/RW drives.
*ehems and raises hand*
Um, I'd LOVE to watch Bluray movies on my laptop. I'd love to do what I currently do, buy a DVD, watch it at home, or bring with me on a trip and watch on the plane/train/etc. I'd hate to buy a movie and be stuck only being able to watch it at home.
Or if I travel, I can use my DVI port to output to an HDTV and use my Mac as a Blu-ray player when I travel.
Not all users of internal blu-ray players are using it to view movies... sure that is the immediate use, but in the coming months/years more applications will require that sort of size (like games), and people will require more capacity to burn uncompressed video (to be viewed in said Blu-Ray players), and other large files
Sure it is a little frivolous, but who are you to say it is a waste of money? In some people's opinions (not mine) it is money well spent...
There's been a bit of talk on this subject in the DVD industry and very little real information. Apple dropped out of this years NAB show, so there goes one possible venue to release it. Apple had a solution for HD on disc with HD DVD playable content recorded on regular DVD-R. There are "affordable" one off Blu-Ray capabilities on PC today although you can't master with them or get the level of quality that's needed for commercial releases.
From an authoring standpoint, to do quality work for Blu-Ray and master is also very expensive. Good software and compression setups are in the six figure range compared to mid to low five figure for DVD when it first came out.
The other big problem with BluRay for a lot of the professionals right now is in replication (manufacturing 1,000 pieces instead of duplicating a few). The client needs to pay about $5,000 in MANDATORY DRM license fees* before you can even press a single disc. That's not a problem if you're making 100,000 copies or more and you spread that cost out, but it's $5 a disc if you're making 1,000 BluRay discs of an indie movie in a niche market. This is the show stopper for almost all of my clients right now. Everyone wants HD on a disc, but they can't afford the fees that come with it, so they sit and wait, and release on DVD and then eventually sell it on iTunes.
Everyone says that the Blu-Ray prices will come down, but there are some factors that just don't allow it. The components for a BluRay player are more expensive than a DVD player by about 3x. And that's not a factor of scale, but complexity. The replication lines are more complex and more expensive than DVD was at the beginning, so even with more of them coming online, the cost won't approach that of DVD...ever.
It currently costs four to six times as much to manufacture a BluRay disc than it does for a DVD and that is not including licensing. Even if the prices drop with an increase in volume that DVD had (ain't gonna happen) BluRay will still cost twice as much to manufacture.
Oh yeah, HD DVD costs? Just a tiny bit more than DVD since they were able to be manufactured on retrofitted DVD lines and DRM was optional so you could avoid all those fees.
*$3,000 of that is to register with AACS LA, which is a one time fee, but for a company that only makes a single movie per year, it may as well be per movie. All replicated BluRay discs must have AACS DRM on them or they can't be played in a BluRay player.
*ehems and raises hand*
Um, I'd LOVE to watch Bluray movies on my laptop. I'd love to do what I currently do, buy a DVD, watch it at home, or bring with me on a trip and watch on the plane/train/etc. I'd hate to buy a movie and be stuck only being able to watch it at home.
Or if I travel, I can use my DVI port to output to an HDTV and use my Mac as a Blu-ray player when I travel.
I guess you must have one of the Hi-Def laptop screens that haven't been developed yet. DVI port to output Blu-ray quality to an HDTV. Good luck.
Which is why an external is the better option than having it in a laptop or even Mac Pro. The speed would be crippling slow. An internal slot-loading Blu-ray drive for a laptop is going to be ridiculously expensive. And any digital professional that needs a Blu-ray drive isn't going to have to have it in a laptop.
*ehems and raises hand*
Um, I'd LOVE to watch Bluray movies on my laptop. I'd love to do what I currently do, buy a DVD, watch it at home, or bring with me on a trip and watch on the plane/train/etc. I'd hate to buy a movie and be stuck only being able to watch it at home.
Or if I travel, I can use my DVI port to output to an HDTV and use my Mac as a Blu-ray player when I travel.
I like that idea. In the meantime I would probably rent the movies from online and watch them on my laptop... watching them on the HDTV at a hotel may be hard... most of the hotels on the east coast are still 4:3... I am grateful that they are at least 27"
That's not the point. The point is not having to buy the same movie twice. If I already own the Blu-ray disk at home, I want to play it on my laptop when I travel.
Sure I'll take a hit on displaying it externally via DVI-HDMI cable. I'd also take a hit on my laptop but last I checked, 900 lines of resolution is greater than 480 (DVD), but maybe that's just me...