So we should just ignore all the data worldwide and in the US that we have about transmission rates, morbidity and fatality and panic? Based on?
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So we should just ignore all the data worldwide and in the US that we have about transmission rates, morbidity and fatality and panic? Based on?
Do you have a credible source to support your assertion the virus has peaked in the Bay Area?
That’s great you’re doing so well. But how bad it will be in the US depends in large part on how many contract the virus.
If 100 million get the virus, anywhere from 500,000 to a couple million could die (0.5% to 2.0%) depending on complicating factors.
When the the virus is everywhere, I think it makes more sense to quarantine the vulnerable.
Most virus can but it depends on temperature and what type of surface.
May someone else did, but I didn’t say it only impacted old people. I also said people with compromised immunity due to underlying conditions which you can’t prove Li didn’t have because you lack his medical history. I also mentioned smoking. Checkmate, bro.
Your axe to grind is with someone else.
Wow, settle down cowboy. A few facts to help you calm down. Grab some tea as you read. Take things seriously, but no need to be hysterical.
Expect the number of cases, etc., to grow sharply for a few days.We are still processing the back log of tests, but should be caught up by Wednesday. But even in that data, please take note that out of about 60K cases, only about 2.4% have serious/critical symptoms, the rest are MILD or NO symptoms.
Relax in knowing that not a single person under 15 has died ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD (contrast to the seasonal flu which has killed 150 kids just in America this season).
Relax further in knowing that the fatality rate is plummeting and we are down to about 1.3%, which means there is an overall 99% chance of NOT dying from it. Experts believe the rate will settle closer to that of the seasonal flu because we have only tested people who have presented with symptoms. Since almost 98% of the people who get it have no or mild symptoms and never get tested, the denominator will grow exponentially (the only thing that appears to be exponential in all of thus, thank the Good Lord)
Calm yourself that even in messed up places like Italy, where they have recently admitted they are over counting deaths, the average age of those dying is 85 and most all have had a serious underlying health condition.
Finally, stop listening to the fake news that there is some overload of ANY hospital, much less most. No one hasn't been treated for an emergency because of COVID19. No one! As of today, 40 of the 50 states have less than ten deaths, and most entire states only have A FEW corona patients in the hospital! In New York, there is a fear that the shear numbers will overload their systems, but that is why they are ramping up and adding many more hospital beds, stocking ventilators, etc., in case that situation develops.
Source? How do you know? We could have already peaked or this could just be just the start. We just don’t know.
It has little to do with the stock market.
99% of the businesses are considered small businesses.
While they are closed, they can't pay employees or their own bills (rent, etc).
Once the closings hit a tipping point, the business failures will cascade until we are quickly into a depression (not recession).
Keeping businesses closed is not a long term option.
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Fair to say the downside risk is greater, but the data thus far is very encouraging that things like the death rate will end up similar to seasonal flu, transmission rate is also lower than expected. Most importantly, there is huge upside that COVID19 may have over the seasonal flu and that is the early evidence that Hydroxychloroquine and Z-Pack antibiotic will knock it out, which we have nothing similar for seasonal flu. If this is true, and we will know if about a week (New York begins massive deployment of this combo tomorrow thanks to Feds shipping hundreds of thousands of doses), then COVID19 will end in a whimper. Say your prayers!
You’re missing the the whole point of social distancing and stay at home strategies: to spread the number of patients that end up in ICU over 4 to 6 or 12 months instead of a month or two.I didn’t just make those numbers or % up. There are several scientist actually saying the same. Every day it seems like the media is finally switching to that tune. This was from nearly a month ago.
Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year
A Harvard epidemiologist calls a global COVID-19 pandemic ‘likely’ while CDC doctors say they are bracing for it to spread beyond the current 15 cases in the USthehill.com
NY prepping for 80% of their state. That’s going to be the entire US
US cases top 32,000 as New York governor estimates 40% to 80% of state will get coronavirus | CNN
At least 400 people have died due to the novel coronavirus in the United States, another grim milestone as the number of US cases topped 32,000 on Sunday.www.cnn.com
If those needing ventilators outstrip the supply, that’s when you have to decide who lives and who dies, like Italy. If you spread those same number of critically ill patients over many months and keep within the capacity of our healthcare system to care for them, we won’t have as many unnecessary and avoidable deaths.
Under both scenarios, the same number of people may ultimately be infected, but the number who will die could be drastically different.
But the only relevance that flu data could possibly have is if we're talking percentages. Total infections/deaths doesn't mean anything with a pandemic that's just getting going. Nobody anywhere is arguing that covid-19 HAS killed more people than the flu, we're arguing that it can and will unless it's stopped.
I'm not sure what point you think you're making here. The flu vaccine is not perfect but it's pretty good most years. Lost of people choose not to get it, and that obviously has to be factored into the data. But enough people do get it that it creates enough herd immunity to significantly slow the progress of the disease AND provides a degree of protection (reduced symptoms) to people who get the flu in spite of the vaccine.
If we had a covid-19 vaccine as good as our flu vaccine, countries wouldn't be shut down.
And yes, flu is quite contagious. And yet still not as contagious as covid-19. Which tells me that covid-19 is some seriously bad stuff.
Hope so. Would certainly be great. No good scientific reason to believe it yet.
edit: i should add: there are a lot of antivirals in various stages of testing right now. We all hope like hell one or more prove effective. But it’s still very early days on that. This isn’t going away in a week or a month because of an antiviral treatment.
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We are all vulnerable. Healthy 30 year olds have died. An otherwise-healthy baby is on a respirator. 35% of those hospitalized for it in America are under 50. Who are these “vulnerable“ people you refer to?
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Yes it is, but for some reason you stepped in and started arguing with me. Follow the thread back and you'll see the comment I responded to.
And not having his medical history doesn't prove this only seriously affects the old, immune compromised and smokers-- that is actually quite difficult to prove and most likely wrong-- but we can save that argument for a different time, bro. 😉
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No, percentages only matter for the flu because of the large dataset and projecting with Covid19 percentages is completely silly and will not play out. I’ll take the under on any extrapolation made With early mortality rates of Covid19.
To be far, my flu stat is for a single year, so it’s not cumulative or something. It’s irresponsible to project early data to large numbers just as it is to completely ignore this as nothing, which I’m not doing.
Our flu vaccine and/or execution in using it sucks based on the data. 1B cases and 200,000 to 600,000 deaths worldwide per year? I mean, you can’t just ignore this and say, “we have a vaccine.”
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We don’t have enough facts about his case to make the “this guy died young” example solid enough. All we know is his age.
You have to manage this like insurance. Just because you’re a well-behaved 16 year old boy with straight As and perfect morals doesn’t mean we aren’t slapping you with high risk rate car insurance.
No, it won't be more risky then than now. Yes, the number of cases continues to increase today - this is expected, and a normal part of the infection rate curve. It's just simple statistics. The active cases curve plays out roughly the same in every country...about 30 days from the rapid growth in cases to the peak. China peaked in mid February, U.S. will likely peak in April. Apple is probably right on target with predicting early-mid April for rapid decline in the number of U.S. cases.
Let's not forget that covid-19 leaves permanent damage to the lungs ... even for the youthful after this is all said and done there is no data to disprove they're likely to avoid having weaker immune systems to the next Flu or other virus' in the future.
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A very good interactive map is here from John Hopkins University of Medicine (Coronavirus Resource Centre)
COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
coronavirus.jhu.edu
We need to be careful when just looking at the daily increase vs confirmed ... the increase has dropped in China and the confirmed cases seems to have tapered off, yet this is China as a whole country ... what about looking at the province of Wuhann (I may have misspelled that, sorry if so).
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This is the exact attitude why this disease is spreading so so fast
These are ONLY the KNOW cases it's estimated that the actual number is much higher.
New York has 5000 more known cases just from yesterday.
People who are completely healthy can pass this lease on to other and make them sick.
If nothing is done millions of people will die - this is not an an exaggeration it is a simple fact
one person can spend it to a thousand people.
My grandfather lived through the 1918-19 Spanish Flu - millions died and today we have interContinental traffic.
Earth has been invaded by invisible aliens and we have no weapons to defend against them.
Yes we to take this seriously.
An over reaction to situation is better than no reaction at all.
these curves are only the beginning...
New York state has 10 times the COVID-19 cases California has. Why?
New York’s COVID-19 numbers have blown up over the past few days, while California and...
www.sfchronicle.com
Because healthy people can spread the virus - you do NOT need to sick to infect others.
except for the fact the 40% of the Covid-19 deaths are people UNDER the age of 50.
Percentages don't matter to ANYONE. when you have loved one that is sick or dies from it.
Can you site proof of that claim as there is proof that the percentage of ANY age group dying is nowhere near 40% as seen in the link below.
Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying?
The current best guess of a 1% death rate does not apply to everyone.
www.bbc.com