Apple Plans to Start Reopening Retail Stores in First Half of April

[firewood]

The 2018 flu did not show exponential growth and fill ICUs so fast that people were left to die in the hallway (see news from Italy last week).

Try the using exponent key on your calculator (iPhone in landscape has one), you can make some really big numbers (vastly more than 80k) just with tiny changes in the numbers you put in.

1.02 x^y 365 = 1377 (less than swimming pool drownings?)
1.03 x^y 365 = 48k (less than the annual flu)
1.05 x^y 365 = 54 million (more than the entire population of California)

The last reported (hopefully inaccurate) exponent base for death rates was around 1.33

!!!

 

[Gasu E.]

Here's this last week's stats for confirmed tested positive cases in CA USA. I won't include deaths because it's too sad.

3/17: 472
3/18: 598
3/19: 675
3/20: 1006
3/21: 1224
3/22: 1468
3/23: 1733

As the number of tested positive results increase, so does the number of people who are flying under the radar, unreported, sick at home.

Source:

News Releases 2020

www.cdph.ca.gov

Because so few people are tested in the USA, confirmed cases has been a useless indicator. In fact, the infection rate may seem to be growing much faster than it is primarily because more testing is become more widely available.

Death rates is a better indicator, although it is about a 30 day lagging indicator. Total CA deaths are doubling every 4 days at this point, which is very high. In China it's well over 100 days to doubling at this point.

 

[Speedy2]

You do understand that poverty causes more issues than this virus will right? Suicides, divorces, lost businesses, lost pay, lost medical coverage, lost of property (property like the ability own a business or get to a business (transportation), death (from all sorts of medical issues people cannot pay for, etc).

...
There's a reason an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza...

I know all this and don't dispute any of it.

So yah, we need to take CV seriously but not this seriously, but we need to take the flu WAAAAAY more seriously. Again, on a scale of 1-100, we're at a 10 with the flu and a 100 with CV...need to dial one up and dial one back.

None of the numbers you quoted will be able to match even closely the deaths of a a full uncontrolled Covid-19 outbreak.

Even if the disease has the current mortality rate 0,5% of Germany, which is among the countries with the lowest, it has the potential to kill 1 million Americans within a year. This is under the assumption that herd immunity will dry out the virus when about 60% of the population have been infected and no cure has been found until then.
If it has the mortality rate of France, the UK or the Netherlands (5%), it could kill 10 million.

Right now we have absolutely nothing against the virus. No one is immune (probably despite the few who had it), there are no vaccines or drugs against it. Which might change in 4 months or 1,5 years. No one knows. What we do know is, that it won't be much earlier than that. So our only way is to slow down the spread until we have something. If we don't, the growth will be expontential. Double the amount of currently infected every three days, and you'll be at 100 millon within 30 days.

So far all this totally disgards the big elephant in the room.
If only 15% of the infected need to be hospitalized, every health care system in the world would totally blow up. No country has even close to that much capacity. The effects of such a complete health care failure are vague, and I don't really want to think about what this will mean. Italy gives us a small glimpse, and they are still in the very early stages. One thing is sure: this would destroy lifes and the economy in ways, that make the quarantine measures look like a small sidejoke. It would tear apart the very fabric of society, because people wouldn't just sit there and let their loved ones die from anything that strictly needs medical treatment.

 

[Peza19]

You are comparing a disease that has run its course with one that is just getting started, which is a false comparison.

The problem with this puppy is that it has a 2% death rate, no vaccine, and no identified immunities. So without isolation, in the USA, that's 6M dead. 120M world-wide. And with unmitigated exponential growth, based on the rates you are seeing in medium density parts of the USA, it would take 2-3 months to reach that point, once the disease gets rooted in an area. Of course, mitigation does happen even just with social distancing and aggressive handwashing. But, those numbers are actually real, if no one does anything at all. That's why people are taking it seriously.

An estimated 115 million people died in World War 1 and 2 combined.
So if that 2% is maintained then that’s one single, not overtly deadly virus, killing more then the world wars combined.
This is Mother Nature and nothing is more powerful, She certainly has no care or respect for anyone’s economy.

Another statistic is an estimated 3000 people die in the worlds roads daily, now think how many are injured daily, how will they be treated of the hospitals are full of Covid 19 patients?

If Donald Trump opens America to business as usual as he wants to across the board, your health service will collapse nationally, and your economy will follow suite..

 

[Gasu E.]

Like the fact that I have first hand knowledge of this virus by having it myself and that for healthy people it is not as big of a deal as the media and yourself are playing it to be?

if that is me being irrelevant then your opinion of me being irrelevant is irrelevant in of itself.

What makes it a big deal, especially in the USA, is the shortage of everything relevant for managing this-- tests, masks, ventilators, potential hospital beds, even hand sanitizer. No, I'm not talking about TP. That adds a huge amount of uncertainty. We don't know how many people have this, we don't know how likely it is we'll get it, and we don't if the hospital will even have the resources to give us proper treatment if and when we get it. I'm truly glad for you that it all worked out fine in your case. But forgive me if I can't take your specific, ahead of the curve experience as indicative of my experience, say, 2 months from now.
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What exactly did I say that was sociopathic/racist? Go ahead and find the quote.

Sure, I will, if you first tell me when I accused you of being a racist.
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Bring it on!
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Blows my mind that people think we should shut down the world for a very small percentage of people at risk that can take care of themselves by staying away from the rest of us. If I give your grandma thismess, guess what, she was out in public too.

So how long would you suggest "grandma" isolate herself from all other human beings? Two years, until a "cure" is found? For the rest of her life, if it's never found? And "isolate" means no visits by sonny to his granny-- since in your scenario, sonny is likely infected. It also means no visits to the doctor, for all them aches n pains; no visits to the dentist, for dentures when her teeth fall out; and certainly no bingo--forever!

You must hate your granny! What did she ever do to you? Give you a nasty cookie?

 

[Devyn89]

Y’all this is a memo to Apples retail employees not an announcement. Originally Apple was going to open this Friday but this is a memo to employees to update on the status on the shutdowns and let them know they do not need to return to work Friday

 

[firewood]

Like the fact that I have first hand knowledge of this virus by having it myself and that for healthy people it is not as big of a deal as the media and yourself are playing it to be?

It looks like 80% of the population will be able to say this... even after up to 1% to 5% of their older family and friends are dead from CV19 suffocation. (possibly over 5% if the ICUs become too full for heart attack and car accident patients, etc.).

 

[Act3]

Why is it not that simple? People who are elderly and those that are high risk know that they are so.

those elderly also need to visit the doctor much more frequently than the younger crowd. The younger ones are the ones providing that medical care. That is one reason

 

[Analog Kid]

Is the implicit assumption of some people here that overwhelming the health care systems of most developed countries and losing a few percentage points of population won't negatively impact the economy?

 

[dogg]

You’ll see increases in the thousands soon in the US and Canada, one person can lead to over 400 infected in 30 days based on normal everyday life as it was before the lockdowns.
In the U.K. for instance 1 to 2 weeks ago the infected were in the hundreds, today it’s at 8077, and only people in hospitals are being tested.
so it is indeed correct to say several hundred a day. The virus spreads with ease due to no one having immunity against it.

Plus the UK is on the same trajectory as Italy. FACT. But we’re a nation of elderly the same as Italy so the figures shouldn’t count either. LMFAO at these people in denial.

 

[Cycom]

What makes it a big deal, especially in the USA, is the shortage of everything relevant for managing this-- tests, masks, ventilators, potential hospital beds, even hand sanitizer. No, I'm not talking about TP. That adds a huge amount of uncertainty. We don't know how many people have this, we don't know how likely it is we'll get it, and we don't if the hospital will even have the resources to give us proper treatment if and when we get it. I'm truly glad for you that it all worked out fine in your case. But forgive me if I can't take your specific, ahead of the curve experience as indicative of my experience, say, 2 months from now.
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Sure, I will, if you first tell me when I accused you of being a racist.
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So how long would you suggest "grandma" isolate herself from all other human beings? Two years, until a "cure" is found? For the rest of her life, if it's never found? And "isolate" means no visits by sonny to his granny-- since in your scenario, sonny is likely infected. It also means no visits to the doctor, for all them aches n pains; no visits to the dentist, for dentures when her teeth fall out; and certainly no bingo--forever!

You must hate your granny! What did she ever do to you? Give you a nasty cookie?

Find a post of mine that is sociopathic. I’ll wait.

 

[Neepman]

I really don't understand the thinking here in the US. You either shutdown, or you don't. If you shut down in a "hot" spot, but then reopen (or not close) in "cool" spots, all you are doing is inviting people in the "hot" spot to come over to the "cool" spot to shop. I'll let you figure out what happens after that in the "cool" spot. The virus is at least as mobile as we are.

Look at the

Oh I know that link very well. It always pops up when people want to explain away the danger of the new Corona virus.
But if you look closer, it doesn't explain away anything.

Lets's reiterate.
Covid-19 in Italy killed 7,000 in about a month, with more than 500 additional deaths PER DAY right now. This is already under the effect of extremely strict quarantine measures in the country. Despite this, there are still >5000 new infections per day.
So if we keep the current status quo the virus will have killed more people in 5 months than the flu in 4 years. WITH extreme quarantine measures in place now. I think the maths speaks for itself.
Without strict measures, the number of deaths was growing exponentially. I'm sure you are able to calculate what that means.


Btw, that "old population is responsible for Corona deaths" idea has no basis.
Italy is among the oldest populations in Europe with a median of 45,5, that's correct. Other European countries have median ages like 47,1 (Germany), 42,6 (Netherlands), Spain (42,7) Among those, especially young Spain has been hit very hard by Covid-19 with currently almost 3000 deaths (+ 500 per day). On the other hand old Germany has only had 160 deaths so far (+ 30 per day). So the notion that the median age correlates with bad or worse Corona outbreaks is extremely weak.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
[3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Italy had a massive influx of returning Chinese workers from Wuhan, Cultural norms such as Grandparents living with families, dense populations and very "touchy" socializations. Every country, city or cultural group is going to have different outcomes. There is no one size fits all here.

 

[sirozha]

1.) Was expecting the Date to be Mon, April 20th.

2.) Cook MUST have received some Assurance from Trump, otherwise they don't make this official !

Why April 20th? Hitler's Birthday?

 

[Baymowe335]

38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu this year.

Get out of here with facts.
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The 2018 flu did not show exponential growth, and fill ICUs so fast that people were left to die in the hallway (see news from Italy last week).

Try the using exponent key on your calculator (iPhone in landscape has one), you can make some really big numbers (vastly more than 80k) just with tiny changes in the numbers you put in.

1.02 x^y 365 = 1377 (less than swimming pool drownings?)
1.03 x^y 365 = 48k (less than the annual flu)
1.05 x^y 365 = 54 million (more than the entire pop of California)

Yeah, OK. You're one of many doing calculator scenarios that are not based in reality. Hmm, there are ~7B people on earth. If we keep up the rate of infection, everyone will get it and the mortality rate is currently 2%, so 140M people will die. Yay!

There can be a disconnect between math and reality. Pounding keys on a calculator doesn't play out in the real world and it's not doing so.

Italy has one of the oldest populations on Earth and their socialized medicine approach is showing its weaknesses. Even still, it hasn't killed as many people as the flu did in America in a single year. Not even close.

The flu didn't show exponential growth? The facts are in and 80,000 died in America from the 2018 flu. How many were sick from it? 60,000,000? 80,000,000? They sure as hell got sick from someone else with the flu, who got it from someone else.

The strain on the hospitals is extremely isolated and is not the case in most places.
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You are comparing a disease that has run its course with one that is just getting started, which is a false comparison.

The problem with this puppy is that it has a 2% death rate, no vaccine, and no identified immunities. So without isolation, in the USA, that's 6M dead. 120M world-wide. And with unmitigated exponential growth, based on the rates you are seeing in medium density parts of the USA, it would take 2-3 months to reach that point, once the disease gets rooted in an area. Of course, mitigation does happen even just with social distancing and aggressive handwashing. But, those numbers are actually real, if no one does anything at all. That's why people are taking it seriously.

Look how you just mathed up 6M people dead in the US and 120M worldwide. I'll take the under. Same old stuff I hear on CNN. Tell me something I don't know. It's not going to be a 2% death rate, bro. The gross numbers aren't very alarming.

I'm not saying to NOT take it seriously. I'm saying the response will need to be re-evaluated for reasonableness and also effectiveness, since we aren't implementing anything close to a true quarantine.

People freaking out about the current numbers have no perspective. Everything is based on speculation and projection. Maybe it will get there. It's not there yet...and it isn't close. Every day we put behind us without complete destruction is a win.

The flu has a vaccine (no one cares), crap treatments that don't really work, and 80,000 people in the richest nation in the world died in a single year. That's worse than COVID19...it really doesn't matter what projection you have for me. The flu in 2018 was objectively worse than this (so far). That might change. It's not even close yet. Accordingly, on 3/24, the flu is supremely underrated and this is overrated.

 

[luvbug]

Y’all this is a memo to Apples retail employees not an announcement. Originally Apple was going to open this Friday but this is a memo to employees to update on the status on the shutdowns and let them know they do not need to return to work Friday

Thank you for that! Although, the discussion brought on by this article is a healthy one, I think.

 

[Analog Kid]

Is there a reason we shouldn’t get a flu shot and also protect ourselves from covid-19?

 

[QCassidy352]

The strain on the hospitals is extremely isolated and is not the case in most places.

and if we’re very smart about this, it might stay that way. Maybe.

The gross numbers aren't very alarming.

so you want to wait until they are alarming before we act? Because between incubation period and slowly developing symptoms, by the time the gross numbers are “alarming” (whatever that means to you), it’s going to be too late. There will be two weeks of growth already coming that can’t be stopped

People freaking out about the current numbers have no perspective. Everything is based on speculation and projection. Maybe it will get there. It's not there yet...and it isn't close. Every day we put behind us without complete destruction is a win.

No. It WILL get there. It’s a highly contagious disease with no vaccine and no herd immunity. It will spread until it’s stopped. That can either happen with a 70% infection rate, a vaccine (no time soon), or distancing. That’s it. Those are the options.

The flu has a vaccine (no one cares),

No one cares? That’s the whole ballgame right there.

 

[Analog Kid]

Like the fact that I have first hand knowledge of this virus by having it myself and that for healthy people it is not as big of a deal as the media and yourself are playing it to be?

I won the lottery and have no idea why you’re so worried about getting to work on time...

 

[sirghost]

I won the lottery and have no idea why you’re so worried about getting to work on time...

I never said anything about me going to work. I am however concerned about me having money afterwards, and the longer that takes to stabilize the less I have in the remaining years of life to live off of.

 

[Analog Kid]

I never said anything about me going to work. I am however concerned about me having money afterwards, and the longer that takes to stabilize the less I have in the remaining years of life to live off of.

It was a metaphor...

 

[sirghost]

Is there a reason we shouldn’t get a flu shot and also protect ourselves from covid-19?

No reaso not to get the flu shot, but do know that it will most likely have no effect for you with covid-19.

 

[Mw0103]

Get out of here with facts.
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Yeah, OK. You're one of many doing calculator scenarios that are not based in reality. Hmm, there are ~7B people on earth. If we keep up the rate of infection, everyone will get it and the mortality rate is currently 2%, so 140M people will die. Yay!

There can be a disconnect between math and reality. Pounding keys on a calculator doesn't play out in the real world and it's not doing so.

Italy has one of the oldest populations on Earth and their socialized medicine approach is showing its weaknesses. Even still, it hasn't killed as many people as the flu did in America in a single year. Not even close.

The flu didn't show exponential growth? The facts are in and 80,000 died in America from the 2018 flu. How many were sick from it? 60,000,000? 80,000,000? They sure as hell got sick from someone else with the flu, who got it from someone else.

The strain on the hospitals is extremely isolated and is not the case in most places.
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Look how you just mathed up 6M people dead in the US and 120M worldwide. I'll take the under. Same old stuff I hear on CNN. Tell me something I don't know. It's not going to be a 2% death rate, bro. The gross numbers aren't very alarming.

I'm not saying to NOT take it seriously. I'm saying the response will need to be re-evaluated for reasonableness and also effectiveness, since we aren't implementing anything close to a true quarantine.

People freaking out about the current numbers have no perspective. Everything is based on speculation and projection. Maybe it will get there. It's not there yet...and it isn't close. Every day we put behind us without complete destruction is a win.

The flu has a vaccine (no one cares), crap treatments that don't really work, and 80,000 people in the richest nation in the world died in a single year. That's worse than COVID19...it really doesn't matter what projection you have for me. The flu in 2018 was objectively worse than this (so far). That might change. It's not even close yet. Accordingly, on 3/24, the flu is supremely underrated and this is overrated.

This whole post seems to say, “don’t react until the gross numbers exceed the flu” and “don’t trust science, epidemiology, doctors, or the other countries dealing with this.” Same tripe being broadcast on Fox News.

The strain on hospitals has occurred in places that failed to act quickly enough. The projections you distrust are not absolutes—they are extrapolations of data currently available. Without a crystal ball or a time machine, that’s the best we can do. Maybe you’ll be right someday, and it won’t be that bad. Maybe that’ll be because of measures taken to flatten the curve. Maybe not. In either case, I hope you’re right.

But right now, you seem to be advocating for relaxed mitigation measures. To what end? If we lock down the country, the economy suffers. If we don’t, the data we have suggests many people will become seriously ill, and many of those will die. Removing consumers and workers permanently will also severely damage the economy. So both choices have negative economic effects. So it seems it’s a decision that comes down to saving lives or not. Let’s stay home.

 

[Agit21]

The number of people that are sick (or carriers) that fly under the official stat radar can only be imagined.

Because corona is nothing serious. Only to old people.

 

[falainber]

38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu this year.

That's for one season, so, say, 50,000 hospitalizations per month. Flu is a much less severe disease, the average hospital stay is just 5 days (source). That means that on average only 10,000 people in US need hospitalization on any given day. That's what our health system is built to manage. With flu, just like with corona-virus the curve is the key.

A week ago in Italy 13,000 people were hospitalized with coronavirus symptoms (source). The number must be higher today. Prorate this number for US population and you get about 70,000 concurrent hospitalizations in US (if we handle it as badly as they did). So, that's 7x the flu rate of hospitalizations. Now, consider the ratio of people who need a ventilator (Covid-19 causes pneumonia at much higher rate than flu) and you get the picture. If we run out of hospital beds/ICUs/ventilators the death rate skyrockets and we have unpredictable number of dead (let's all hope we can avoid it)

 

[I7guy]

Because corona is nothing serious. Only to old people.

While this seems to be mostly true (and to the very young), I personally know of two people who have had it and self-quarantined at home. After two weeks they were mostly back to normal, although both admit it wasn't a stroll in the park. A doctor friend of mine was quoting statistics echoing the above.

Me, I don't want to be that exception case.