Apple Plans to Start Reopening Retail Stores in First Half of April

[Ryth]

This, this right here. You see people saying, "It's just math, bro. Watch me do the math."

This projection doesn't work.

First of all, all your numbers are based entirely on data from Wuhan. Second, the number of unconfirmed cases of people 15-44 is everything and is almost completely UNKNOWN. Further, the sample size is simply too small to project that to ANYTHING close to a large number like 65M. That's garbage math and worse logic.

This isn't advocating flippancy. It's saying get off the projections and deal with reality. Your scenario is never going to play out. Even Dr. Fauci has said mortality will decrease with more testing...and it only makes logical sense.
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This is sad, but it's one guy. Do you have his complete medical history? The numbers we have don't support healthy 33 year olds being a huge risk factor for death. You have 1 example and are missing his medical history. Do we really need to pump this like the media would to trigger people like you in panic?

Exactly.

There are enough mathematicians and statisticians out there screaming that the data is incomplete and that these doctors are just too narrowly focused (the issue with most experts is they can't see the forest for the trees) and ignoring massive flaws in their models...the biggest being...wait for it...incomplete data.

A good read...

Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves

All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go to them fir…

wmbriggs.com

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.​

 

[shadowcatz23]

One, everybody is at risk.

Two, a big part of the problem is people getting the virus, not knowing they have it, passing it on to others, and then one of those people goes to their home, where someone who IS at extreme risk (immune-compromised, very elderly, whatever) also lives, and that at-risk person gets the virus and gets sick and dies.

Do you want to help other people die? It doesn't matter if you're "super healthy" or whatever, you can still help spread the virus to others, and eventually it gets to someone who is at extreme risk.

This thing doesn't work if people who feel they are okay, or feel that they're not at risk, keep going out. We need everyone - EVERYONE - to cooperate. If you're not working at a declared-essential job (like doctors and nurses), or out getting food, go home and stay home.

STOP this damn "(only) people at risk should take precautions" (but it's okay for me to keep doing things) nonsense. It's not just wrong. It's not just unhelpful. It's a way to get people killed.

so after everyone stays home for whatever amount of time and the asymptomatic people c0me and start infecting people again the what? Honest question...this virus is not just going to disappear it is here to stay.
so the question then is how long do you think we stay in isolation? A year? Two years? How long exactly.
durning this isolation people lose jobs, health care, etc. hospitals stop getting paid and the health care system still collapses. Now even a simple treatable cut could kill you. What is the death toll then?
None of this is saying that the current situation isn’t serious it is. However we need to think thrumthis process more and use the data we are collecting from isolated infections like on the cruise ships to make better predictions. Right now there is a lot of group,think on both sides of this issue

 

[Analog Kid]

Yeah, but you can't just pull up an anecdotal case and use it as a gotcha. It's not that simple.

It is that simple, and it’s not a gotcha. It only takes one counter example to disprove a universal statement. You seem very focused in this thread on not assuming things that can’t be very specifically proven, but in this case you seem intent on defending a point that can be easily disproven.

It is not only dangerous to old people. I can prove that statement: Li died at 33. It doesn’t take a 5 page proof. I think you probably understand that and the point you’re trying to make is actually different.

Over generalizing is problematic...

 

[omenatarhuri]

This is horribly irresponsible to be announcing this even before the cases of Covid have peaked, which isn't likely to happen by mid-april.

That probably makes sense for some areas. Remember though that Apple has stores all around the world and the epidemic is in different places at different times.

 

[cmaier]

Why I sit irresponsible here?

again, the virus is not a death sentence for all humans on the planet.

Those that are at risk should take precautions to shield themselves from it, real simple.

Everyone is at risk for it. A 12 year old died. Someone under 18 died today in L.A. A baby is on a respirator. Nobody is immune from horrible consequences.

 

[JohnWalker]

And then 2,400,000...we’re all gonna die!

then 24 million then 240 million
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This is completely made up and factually wrong.

how could it be factually wrong if nobody knows?

 

[DelayedGratificationGene]

Complete insanity to even consider reopening in the USA which is still on an exponential increase.

We need to stop living in this media driven fear madness.

 

[cmaier]

We need to stop living in this media driven fear madness.

In NY, deaths due to CV19 are doubling every day. In the U.S., the number of cases is on a trajectory that far exceeds where China was at this point.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

Chicago Doctor’s Blunt Speech About COVID-19 Hits Home Across the Country

Chicago Doctor's Blunt Speech About COVID-19 Hits Home Across the Country

Dr. Emily Landon is the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Chicago Medicine, who moments after Pritzker issued the ordinance to take effect Saturday evening, took to the stand with a 7-minute-long speech that went viral after striking a chord for many individuals.

www.nbcchicago.com

 

[Stridr69]

Interesting documentary on the 1918 swine flu. Definitely food for the mind.

....and earlier today in Hawaii.....

 

[Neepman]

Everyone is at risk for it. A 12 year old died. Someone under 18 died today in L.A. A baby is on a respirator. Nobody is immune from horrible consequences.

And when you look under the hood you will see they all had underlying conditions. For the vast majority that even have symptoms, this virus is a crap week and thats it. To stop the spread , I completely support and understand imposed isolation and banned gatherings but life cannot stand still for all of us indefinitely.

 

[cmaier]

And when you look under the hood you will see they all had underlying conditions.

Nope, they didn’t. Nice try though.

 

[Mayostudent]

I cannot believe the comments in this thread. I hope the stupid ones are coming from just Gen Y and Z. Man.

 

[Cycom]

I cannot believe the comments in this thread. I hope the stupid ones are coming from just Gen Y and Z. Man.

Yup, lots of panicky people from every age range.

 

[JimmyBanks6]

then 24 million then 240 million
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how could it be factually wrong if nobody knows?

Is that the best fallacy you have? 🙄

Russell's teapot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[citysnaps]

Yeah, Japan is interesting. But I believe the Japanese have a social taboo against spreading diseases. If you are in Tokyo during the workweek, you would see everyone with the sniffles wearing a mask. So, I'm extrapolating that to the assumption that every Japanese person would follow recommended covid health recommendations to the letter. It's their nature.

I think your analysis is spot on. As a photographer I like following the work of photojournalists. Here's an exceptionally strong body of work by Associated Press photographer Jae C. Hong of life in Tokyo during the pandemic. The photographs were made close to three weeks ago.

 

[Mw0103]

Yup, lots of panicky people from every age range.

I think you are mistaking prudence for panic. When we look at this in hindsight, I’d rather have overreacted than under-reacted (since perfect reaction is all but impossible).

 

[Juan007]

This is the right call, the virus spread has peaked in places like the Bay Area where social distancing has been going on for 3-4 weeks. In a week or two the numbers will look much better and stores can re-open on a case-by-case basis. So stores in the Bay Area might open, stores in NY might be closed for a few more weeks.

Apple will lead the American economy out of this recession, American tech companies are the strongest economic engine in the world. Apple employees are eager to get back to work, customers are eager to buy, everyone is eager to get America running again. A few more weeks and we'll be back at it. Let's go!

 

[Baymowe335]

No not at a greater rate. A higher total number, not a greater rate. Covid-19 kills at a higher rate. And it’s more contagious than the flu (by far). And there’s no herd immunity. And there’s no vaccine to blunt the symptoms in individual cases. And there’s no effective antiviral to give to seriously ill patients.

All of which means that the downside risk of covid-19 is orders of magnitude greater than the downside risk of the seasonal flu.

My “rate” referred to total deaths. A rate can be any measure or quantity...not necessarily only a percentage.

Further, the mortality is still up in the air for Covid19. Flu vaccine and treatments aren’t very good if it kills 80,000 people in the richest nation in the world...it’s also evidently rather contagious. Is 1 BILLION cases contagious enough?

 

[truthertech]

This is horribly irresponsible to be announcing this even before the cases of Covid have peaked, which isn't likely to happen by mid-april.

LOL, your post is arguably irresponsible. We now have data from hundreds of thousands of tests, up to 150K more per day. By April will have over a million and tons of data with recommendations from CDC, NIH, etc., etc. While it is a serious issue we need to continue to monitor, there is much good news in the data thus far.

• First, transmission rate appears to be well below what was originally feared, about 93% of people with symptoms are testing negative!
• Also fantastic news is that the serious/critical rate is only about 2.4% of those infected, and will likely fall even further as more are tested, but this means that thus far almost 98% of those who get disease have NO or MILD symptoms.
• Most importantly, fatality rate is plummeting and will undoubtedly continue to fall as only the sickest have been tested thus far, but currently is at about 1.2%, which means you realistically have about an overall 99% chance of NOT dying from it. However, the news, thus far, is even better, as the vast majority of those who have died have a serious underlying health condition! Further in this area, worldwide, not a single person under the age of 15 has died. That's in the entire world. Contrast this with the seasonal flu-in just America thus far, there have been 150 pediatric deaths from the seasonal flu this season. "Why aren't we doing anything to stop the death of young people from the seasonal flu?" I won't bother to mention the estimated 46K deaths from the seasonal flu in America thus far this year that no one batted an eye at.

Again, it's a serious issue, and we should all follow the President's 15 day plan to reduce the impact, but there is too much hysteria compared to the facts. Even in Italy, where they are now admitting they have been over counting deaths, the average age of someone dying has been 85! And the vast majority of those who have died have had serious underlying health issues.

 

[opiapr]

Hoping they are doing some type of pick up service, otherwise they’re putting all of their employees at risk while this continues to increase in those affected. Proper measures haven’t even fully been taken yet, I agree that this is irresponsible.

I hope so too. I can’t see how they will allow the stores to get pack and everyone touching the devices. They will probably open in some form but not as usual. Hopefully.

 

[Baymowe335]

Exactly.

There are enough mathematicians and statisticians out there screaming that the data is incomplete and that these doctors are just too narrowly focused (the issue with most experts is they can't see the forest for the trees) and ignoring massive flaws in their models...the biggest being...wait for it...incomplete data.

A good read...​

​

Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves

All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go to them fir…

wmbriggs.com

​

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.​

This is the most important part of any analysis and it’s so underreported.

I do analytics for a living and all of my colleagues share the same opinions as me. Maybe I’m biased for this reason...but I’m definitely not alone.

I’m just dumbfounded the media doesn’t even bother reporting the other side...but then I remember fear gets eyeballs to watch and fingers to click.

Agreed. Doctors are in some ways biased. Their objective is to lose no one, no matter what. I don’t blame them, but I don’t necessarily think their perspective takes the larger picture into account.

I mean, math is not the strong suit of most media outlets or people in general.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1235843592251301888

 

[cmaier]

This is the right call, the virus spread has peaked in places like the Bay Area where social distancing has been going on for 3-4 weeks. In a week or two the numbers will look much better and stores can re-open on a case-by-case basis. So stores in the Bay Area might open, stores in NY might be closed for a few more weeks.

Apple will lead the American economy out of this recession, American tech companies are the strongest economic engine in the world. Apple employees are eager to get back to work, customers are eager to buy, everyone is eager to get America running again. A few more weeks and we'll be back at it. Let's go!

A week or two will certainly be too soon for the Bay Area. Nothing has peaked here yet. I know a lady who was just diagnosed, and they aren’t even doing any analysis to figure out who she’s been in contact with to have them checked, or who she might have gotten it from, etc. Until it’s enough under control that they can actually track cases, they won’t relax the restrictions here.

 

[Plutonius]

But businesses can't stay closed forever- Shop at your own risk

This is what it will come down to.

As it is, I think that many smaller businesses are not coming back (99% of businesses are smaller businesses).

 

[Cycom]

I think you are mistaking prudence for panic. When we look at this in hindsight, I’d rather have overreacted than under-reacted (since perfect reaction is all but impossible).

I’m not.
You are correct, however, that you’re overreacting.