You are ridiculous. Nikola Tesla died 1943 and never said anything about self-driving cars. Elon Musk makes science fiction like statements twice a day without ever backing them up. He could as well say, the technology may not be ready today, but before the end of next year, we'll be able to beam me up Scotty. At least that wouldn't require a self-aware AI.
He sure does make a lot of science fiction sounding statements. Things like there will be compelling electric cars. Things like a private company will make rockets that connect to the ISS. Or that we'll be able to pay for things online without visiting a bank or writing a check. Or that we'll be able to collect energy from the sun. Or that rockets will someday be reusable.
Oh wait. He did all of that.
We have a tendency to believe Musk because he has a tendency to be correct. He's sometimes off a bit when estimating how much time or money something will take - by up to a factor of 33%.
The Model S will start at $50K with incentives. Well, no, it starts at $64K with incentives - off by 30%.
The Model S will ship in 4 years. It took just under 5 years. Off by 25%.
The Model X will start at $75K without incentives. Actually, it was $83K. Off by 11%.
The Model X will ship in 3 years. It took 4 years. Off by 33%.
Land a rocket in 2016? Nailed it.
His next predictions are:
- Falcon Heavy delivering people to the ISS in 2017.
- Model 3 will be $35K and deliveries start in 2017.
- 100% self driving car by the end of 2018.
- First 100 people on Mars in the mid 2020's.
Maybe the Falcon Heavy will take until 2018.
Maybe the Model 3 will take until 2018 and cost $45K.
Maybe self driving will take until 2020.
Maybe we won't land on Mars until 2030.
Even if that's the case, it seems odd to question him. He makes outlandish predictions and makes them come true.
[doublepost=1460996250][/doublepost]
Having a vision is exactly the root problem here. The car that envisions a road where there is in fact an open drawbridge, either crashes into the bridge or drives into the water and drowns its occupants. The secret to safe driving is sensing and accepting reality as it is, not making up an alternative reality and calling it a vision. There is a famous quote of former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt:
"He who has visions should go see a doctor!" America already tried reusable rockets, that's what the Space Shuttle program was all about. In reality the shuttles needed long intensive repairs after every flight and were way more expensive and dangerous than one-time use rockets. Trying the same thing again with SpaceX is not a way forward, but the definition of insanity. We've tried electric cars, let them rest.
It's not the same thing though. You tweak the variables.
The Space Shuttle discarded its boosters. The Falcon 9 and Heavy recovers them.
Electric cars died because of the number of companies involved which had mixed interests (namely, to have gasoline based cars be successful). Tesla controls nearly everything about their cars - nobody involved has mixed interests.
Also, your sensors don't work if they don't sense what's around them. That hasn't been the case with Tesla or Google.
