Apple Reports 4Q 2018 Results: $14.1B Profit on $62.9B Revenue, 46.9M iPhones

[ftaok]

Wall Street knows what they're doing. Everything the analysts say isn't for the benefit of the small investor. You're not their customer. Their customers are the big money folks. They get the real analysis and the stuff that's published on websites is designed to benefit their real customers at the expense of the small investor.

The funny thing about the analysts' reports coming out last night and today. They're all "doom and gloom" and are forecasting weak growth going forward.

Here's the thing ... no one remembers what the analysts were saying a few months ago. Except I took some notes back on August 1st because I had some money to invest and wanted to track Wall Street's sentiment on a few tech stocks.

On Aug 1st, the average analysts' estimate for FY2018 Revenue was $261B, which represented a 14% growth y/y. The average estimate was $273B (5% growth y/y). That happened to be the 1st day that AAPL closed at over $200.

Yesterday, before the earnings report, the estimates had grown to $262B and $281B. Apple actually reported $265B for a 16% growth y/y and guided for $93B on the high end for Q1-2019.

So they are over the expectations from Aug-1 and are in line with the expectations from yesterday. Yet, the analysts are out there saying that Apple's guidance is weaker than expected (it's not) and that iPhones sales are going down (perhaps).

So why are the analysts doing this? Because they have already locked in profits for their real customers on the run-up from $200 to $230, that's the "pump". Now, they're driving the price down to $200 (and below?) before they buy back in (classic "dump").

If you can see this game that Wall Street plays, they you can make a ton of money buy doing the opposite of what the analysts publicly say. If I had more time to follow this stuff, I'd be rich.

Anyways, it's fun to read the statements coming from these analysts, because they're just like internet trolls. They say stuff to get people all worked up and they know that AAPL is the easiest stock to get people riled up about.

Anyways, that's my take. I probably should have sold some of my AAPL last week, but I have some money on the sidelines. Maybe pick up some if it drops into the 190's.

 

[macfacts]

So with Apple making more money in services, that makes customers the product.

 

[ftaok]

Seems to happen post every release. wouldn't read much into right now.

------

Financials look good for now. I'm expecting that the XR will be a supercycle for them financialy.

The question will be sales volumes and number of units shipped. Last few quarters we've seen that slow down dramatically. Most of the revenue/profit increases were based on higher asking prices, and not higher movement of volume.

Is that the case here? Or did we see a big set of movement of the Xs and Xs+. One thing Apple migth have to be careful with is as volume declines (usually what happens if you start raising prices especially in a maturing market like mobile phones) is the potential of driving away customers. There's an equilibrium that needs to be found. But this is generally the part where Tim Cook shines as CEO, the financial decisions.

XR I believe will do extremely well due to the price point. it's the first Apple "Notched" phone available at the standard iPhone price points. Those who bought the 7 or 8 and have a ceiling of $750 for what they're willing to spend will likely buy it as it's the first visual redesign in 4 years.

y/y iPhone unit sales were flat. The ASP grew from $618 to $793. That's where the revenue growth for the iPhone unit came from.

Going forward, Apple will no longer report unit sales, and therefore, the ASP will remain a mystery. I think they'll only release Revenue for the various product sectors.

Even though we won't have official confirmation anymore, expect the ASP for the current Christmas quarter to be well in excess of $850.
[doublepost=1541165752][/doublepost]

So with Apple making more money in services, that makes customers the product.

Apple services are different than GOOG/FB type services.

Apple Music, Applecare, iCloud, iTunes, etc. are the kinds of Services that Apple provides.

 

[sirozha]

Wall Street knows what they're doing. Everything the analysts say isn't for the benefit of the small investor. You're not their customer. Their customers are the big money folks. They get the real analysis and the stuff that's published on websites is designed to benefit their real customers at the expense of the small investor.

The funny thing about the analysts' reports coming out last night and today. They're all "doom and gloom" and are forecasting weak growth going forward.

Here's the thing ... no one remembers what the analysts were saying a few months ago. Except I took some notes back on August 1st because I had some money to invest and wanted to track Wall Street's sentiment on a few tech stocks.

On Aug 1st, the average analysts' estimate for FY2018 Revenue was $261B, which represented a 14% growth y/y. The average estimate was $273B (5% growth y/y). That happened to be the 1st day that AAPL closed at over $200.

Yesterday, before the earnings report, the estimates had grown to $262B and $281B. Apple actually reported $265B for a 16% growth y/y and guided for $93B on the high end for Q1-2019.

So they are over the expectations from Aug-1 and are in line with the expectations from yesterday. Yet, the analysts are out there saying that Apple's guidance is weaker than expected (it's not) and that iPhones sales are going down (perhaps).

So why are the analysts doing this? Because they have already locked in profits for their real customers on the run-up from $200 to $230, that's the "pump". Now, they're driving the price down to $200 (and below?) before they buy back in (classic "dump").

If you can see this game that Wall Street plays, they you can make a ton of money buy doing the opposite of what the analysts publicly say. If I had more time to follow this stuff, I'd be rich.

Anyways, it's fun to read the statements coming from these analysts, because they're just like internet trolls. They say stuff to get people all worked up and they know that AAPL is the easiest stock to get people riled up about.

Anyways, that's my take. I probably should have sold some of my AAPL last week, but I have some money on the sidelines. Maybe pick up some if it drops into the 190's.

So, who is orchestrating this “dump”? Is there a secret society that controls Wall Street? Because in order to engineer a “dump,” the absolute majority of the analysts must be in cahoots with each other and part of a conspiracy.
[doublepost=1541166172][/doublepost]

y/y iPhone unit sales were flat. The ASP grew from $618 to $793. That's where the revenue growth for the iPhone unit came from.

Going forward, Apple will no longer report unit sales, and therefore, the ASP will remain a mystery. I think they'll only release Revenue for the various product sectors.

Even though we won't have official confirmation anymore, expect the ASP for the current Christmas quarter to be well in excess of $850.
[doublepost=1541165752][/doublepost]
Apple services are different than GOOG/FB type services.

Apple Music, Applecare, iCloud, iTunes, etc. are the kinds of Services that Apple provides.

Apple should not have reported the volumes this time around. The fourth quarter would have looked much better.

 

[tromboneaholic]

So with Apple making more money in services, that makes customers the product.

No. It makes the service the product, such as Apple Music.

Apple is not selling customer data.

 

[ftaok]

So, who is orchestrating this “dump”? Is there a secret society that controls Wall Street? Because in order to engineer a “dump,” the absolute majority of the analysts must be in cahoots with each other and part of a conspiracy.

"They" are. It's not a secret society. I'm talking about the big banks and trading firms. The Merrill Lynch's and Goldman Sach's of the world.

They use the financial media (CNBC, Bloomberg, FinancialTimes) to put out reports and stories from suspect analysts and insiders. By using the media this way, it gives the report legitimacy.

Then legions of folks (or bots) on message boards and forums will pass this information around.

This drives sentiment in a particular direction, that allows the big guys to buy or sell at advantageous levels.

If you go back and look at the reports from 1 or 2 years ago, you'll see how so many of them were completely wrong. Ask yourself how an analyst who gets every report wrong gets to keep their job. Then you'll have the answer.

 

[macfacts]

No. It makes the service the product, such as Apple Music.

Apple is not selling customer data.

Google doesnt sell customer data either.

 

[MrX8503]

How can you compare Tim to Mark or Larry? The latter two are the inventors; they are the ones who came up with the idea and implemented it. They are the entrepreneurs and the visionaries. They are the Steve Jobs. Tim Cook didn’t come up with any idea or vision. He didn’t create the company. He didn’t bring it to success. He is the one who taught Steve Jobs how to outsource production to China and how not to own warehouses in the US. He was paid by Apple handsomely for that, and that’s the only thing he knows how to do well.

Moving the goal posts I see. You slammed Tim Cook for being out of touch with regular people because he’s filthy rich.

Reports says otherwise.

 

[ipponrg]

Wall Street knows what they're doing. Everything the analysts say isn't for the benefit of the small investor. You're not their customer. Their customers are the big money folks. They get the real analysis and the stuff that's published on websites is designed to benefit their real customers at the expense of the small investor.

The funny thing about the analysts' reports coming out last night and today. They're all "doom and gloom" and are forecasting weak growth going forward.

Here's the thing ... no one remembers what the analysts were saying a few months ago. Except I took some notes back on August 1st because I had some money to invest and wanted to track Wall Street's sentiment on a few tech stocks.

On Aug 1st, the average analysts' estimate for FY2018 Revenue was $261B, which represented a 14% growth y/y. The average estimate was $273B (5% growth y/y). That happened to be the 1st day that AAPL closed at over $200.

Yesterday, before the earnings report, the estimates had grown to $262B and $281B. Apple actually reported $265B for a 16% growth y/y and guided for $93B on the high end for Q1-2019.

So they are over the expectations from Aug-1 and are in line with the expectations from yesterday. Yet, the analysts are out there saying that Apple's guidance is weaker than expected (it's not) and that iPhones sales are going down (perhaps).

So why are the analysts doing this? Because they have already locked in profits for their real customers on the run-up from $200 to $230, that's the "pump". Now, they're driving the price down to $200 (and below?) before they buy back in (classic "dump").

If you can see this game that Wall Street plays, they you can make a ton of money buy doing the opposite of what the analysts publicly say. If I had more time to follow this stuff, I'd be rich.

Anyways, it's fun to read the statements coming from these analysts, because they're just like internet trolls. They say stuff to get people all worked up and they know that AAPL is the easiest stock to get people riled up about.

Anyways, that's my take. I probably should have sold some of my AAPL last week, but I have some money on the sidelines. Maybe pick up some if it drops into the 190's.

This is the reason one of my friends quit his job and plays the stock options game daily specifically with Apple. He makes a lot of money (and sometimes loses), but the probability has worked in his favor.

For Apple, it’s the perfect stock To set limits and triggers. Buy low and sell high. Get some change on the side.

 

[FFR]

Seems to happen post every release. wouldn't read much into right now.

------

Financials look good for now. I'm expecting that the XR will be a supercycle for them financialy.

The question will be sales volumes and number of units shipped. Last few quarters we've seen that slow down dramatically. Most of the revenue/profit increases were based on higher asking prices, and not higher movement of volume.

Is that the case here? Or did we see a big set of movement of the Xs and Xs+. One thing Apple migth have to be careful with is as volume declines (usually what happens if you start raising prices especially in a maturing market like mobile phones) is the potential of driving away customers. There's an equilibrium that needs to be found. But this is generally the part where Tim Cook shines as CEO, the financial decisions.

XR I believe will do extremely well due to the price point. it's the first Apple "Notched" phone available at the standard iPhone price points. Those who bought the 7 or 8 and have a ceiling of $750 for what they're willing to spend will likely buy it as it's the first visual redesign in 4 years.

Seems to have recovered this morning.

I think your right about the xr being super cycle.

It’s too early to tell. While ASP is approaching $800 and revenue is up 29% yoy we know the iPhone X’s and Xs max had a definite impact on apples bottom line, but with only two weeks of sales recorded for the financial period and xr sales beginning this quarter it’s too early to tell. They still haven’t seen any volume declines and I believe it’s to early to call peak iPhone.

The market is adjusting to apples new price points and the lack of a high end large screen iPhone might explain rate of volume growth in the past quarters but that is mitigated by the guidance of 90 billion dollars for the next quarter, which frankly is insane if you think about it. $90 billion.

New iPads pros are completely sold out for launch day next week and are being offered at a much higher price point as well. Apple Watch is still very popular and inventory is still not able to keep up with demand going into the Christmas period.

Part of the Mac line has been refreshed as well as the MacBook range, each with higher asp, so all in all apple is looking very good until the Mac Pro and iMacs are refreshed next year. New AirPods will follow as well and HomePod is being released in more markets as supply is catching up with demand, it’s great they took it slow.

So all in all apple is looking really good for the next 6 months with service revenue growing at an exponential rate, tv shows and new Apple TV should only help service revenue grow further next year.

Some additional metrics:
100 million active Mac user
over 2 billion iOS devices sold.

Major markets where revenue growth was 25% or higher: Germany, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan and Korea

46.9 million iPhones sold in Q418 with growth of 20% or more in several markets, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden Norway, Chile and Vietnam.

330 million paid subscriptions on iOS

 

[ftaok]

This is the reason one of my friends quit his job and plays the stock options game daily specifically with Apple. He makes a lot of money (and sometimes loses), but the probability has worked in his favor.

For Apple, it’s the perfect stock To set limits and triggers. Buy low and sell high. Get some change on the side.

I wish I were brave enough to do that. It's not for the weak of heart. But I complain every time one of my hypothetical trades would have made me a ton of cash.

So I sit here in my cubicle and continue to work for the man, while someone else gets rich.

Perhaps if I were younger and single and without kids, I could do something like what your buddy did. Alas, I have responsibilities now and can't risk it.

Oh well.

AAPL is a great stock to do this with. TSLA is another one, but those swings are even wilder.
[doublepost=1541167642][/doublepost]

Seems to have recovered this morning.

I think your right about the xr being super cycle.

It’s too early to tell. While ASP is approaching $800 and revenue is up 29% yoy we know the iPhone X’s and Xs max had a definite impact on apples bottom line, but with only two weeks of sales recorded for the financial period and xr sales beginning this quarter it’s too early to tell. They still haven’t seen any volume declines and I believe it’s to early to call peak iPhone.

The market is adjusting to apples new price points and the lack of a high end large screen iPhone might explain rate of volume growth in the past quarters but that is mitigated by the guidance of 90 billion dollars for the next quarter, which frankly is insane if you think about it. $90 billion.

New iPads pros are completely sold out for launch day next week and are being offered at a much higher price point as well. Apple Watch is still very popular and inventory is still not able to keep up with demand going into the Christmas period.

Part of the Mac line has been refreshed as well as the MacBook range, each with higher asp, so all in all apple is looking very good until the Mac Pro and iMacs are refreshed next year. New AirPods will follow as well and HomePod is being released in more markets as supply is catching up with demand, it’s great they took it slow.

So all in all apple is looking really good for the next 6 months with service revenue growing at an exponential rate, tv shows and new Apple TV should only help service revenue grow further next year.

Some additional metrics:
100 million active Mac user
over 2 billion iOS devices sold.

Major markets where revenue growth was 25% or higher: Germany, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan and Korea

46.9 million iPhones sold in Q418 with growth of 20% or more in several markets, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden Norway, Chile and Vietnam.

330 million paid subscriptions on iOS

That was yesterday's chart. It's down $13 right now.

The nice thing about an Xr supercycle is that the most popular version of the Xr is likely to be the 128GB model, which is $800. So that is already above the $793 ASP, so even if healthy Xr sales exceed Xs/Max sales, the ASP will likely be well above $800 (into the $850s). Unfortunately, we'll never know the actual ASP anymore.

 

[apacho]

Seems to happen post every release. wouldn't read much into right now.

------

Financials look good for now. I'm expecting that the XR will be a supercycle for them financialy.

The question will be sales volumes and number of units shipped. Last few quarters we've seen that slow down dramatically. Most of the revenue/profit increases were based on higher asking prices, and not higher movement of volume.


There will be no supercycle!
Pierre Ferragu proved to be right with his assessment, obviously most of the other analysts are apple fanboys and cant be objective.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/apple-shares-downgraded-because-the-iphone-x-is-too-popular.html

 

[LordVic]

I dunno. I don't read the analysts. I question a lot of their motivation. This is my own analysis done from the numbers.

Albeit i've been swamped lately and haven't reviewed what was released last night.

 

[ftaok]

Seriously?

You're quoting that guy? His price target is $165. Do you think AAPL will drop down to that level?

His analysis is that the X was so popular that people upgraded early and won't be buying the Xs/Max/Xr? I think the $793 ASP for the just completed quarter shows that the Max is selling well. There was only a short window for the Max to sell and the q/q ASP jumped up from $724 to $793. I don't have the math, but that tells me the Max sold very well.

 

[Baymowe335]

@apacho

He hasn't proved anything expect that he's been wrong so far. Apple sold more iPhones in FY2018 than they did in FY2017, by 2M units. They also raised ASP by over $100 in the same periods.

He's talking about FY2019 and we don't have 1 piece of data confirming his thesis and now, we won't ever get unit sales because Apple stopped reporting them.

He, like all analysts, is guessing and most have been proven wrong when the numbers are released.

The story missing here is Apple just reported their best year ever. The revenue for the reported quarter was up 20% y/y, with double digit growth in every geographic segment. EPS was up over 40%.

Apple also guided 6% revenue growth and record revenue for Q1 of FY2019, so they will be selling more than ever before.

 

[ftaok]

I dunno. I don't read the analysts. I question a lot of their motivation. This is my own analysis done from the numbers.

Albeit i've been swamped lately and haven't reviewed what was released last night.

You may not read the analysts, but their drivel gets regurgitated all over the place. You can't escape it. When it shows up on ABC Nightly New, then you know they've done their "job".

 

[FFR]

So with Apple making more money in services, that makes customers the product.

Where do you see that?

Services is around 16% of apples revenue, hardware is where apple makes most of their revenue.

Google doesnt sell customer data either.

Oh I see google. Sure they don’t.

Googles whole business plan is mining users data and that’s the lion share of their revenue.

 

[Baymowe335]

Seriously?

You're quoting that guy? His price target is $165. Do you think AAPL will drop down to that level?

His analysis is that the X was so popular that people upgraded early and won't be buying the Xs/Max/Xr? I think the $793 ASP for the just completed quarter shows that the Max is selling well. There was only a short window for the Max to sell and the q/q ASP jumped up from $724 to $793. I don't have the math, but that tells me the Max sold very well.

He's one of the worst (most wrong) analysts covering AAPL.

If ASP is already $793 with 10 days of XS sales, it's going to be closer to $900 for Xmas quarter.

 

[sirozha]

Seems to have recovered this morning.

I think your right about the xr being super cycle.

It’s too early to tell. While ASP is approaching $800 and revenue is up 29% yoy we know the iPhone X’s and Xs max had a definite impact on apples bottom line, but with only two weeks of sales recorded for the financial period and xr sales beginning this quarter it’s too early to tell. They still haven’t seen any volume declines and I believe it’s to early to call peak iPhone.

The market is adjusting to apples new price points and the lack of a high end large screen iPhone might explain rate of volume growth in the past quarters but that is mitigated by the guidance of 90 billion dollars for the next quarter, which frankly is insane if you think about it. $90 billion.

New iPads pros are completely sold out for launch day next week and are being offered at a much higher price point as well. Apple Watch is still very popular and inventory is still not able to keep up with demand going into the Christmas period.

Part of the Mac line has been refreshed as well as the MacBook range, each with higher asp, so all in all apple is looking very good until the Mac Pro and iMacs are refreshed next year. New AirPods will follow as well and HomePod is being released in more markets as supply is catching up with demand, it’s great they took it slow.

So all in all apple is looking really good for the next 6 months with service revenue growing at an exponential rate, tv shows and new Apple TV should only help service revenue grow further next year.

Some additional metrics:
100 million active Mac user
over 2 billion iOS devices sold.

Major markets where revenue growth was 25% or higher: Germany, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan and Korea

46.9 million iPhones sold in Q418 with growth of 20% or more in several markets, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden Norway, Chile and Vietnam.

330 million paid subscriptions on iOS

Your Stocks app didn't refresh. This is yesterday's close price.

 

[iMEric984]

Yay, prices are going up. double yay.
Moves that are good for the shareholder are not in customers interest.

I find it strange when Apple fans gloat about higher prices.
[doublepost=1541146058][/doublepost]
Apple are making great products but all companies die. Apple has been there before.
What goes up, must come down.

Wow! I did not know this!

 

[FFR]

I wish I were brave enough to do that. It's not for the weak of heart. But I complain every time one of my hypothetical trades would have made me a ton of cash.

So I sit here in my cubicle and continue to work for the man, while someone else gets rich.

Perhaps if I were younger and single and without kids, I could do something like what your buddy did. Alas, I have responsibilities now and can't risk it.

Oh well.

AAPL is a great stock to do this with. TSLA is another one, but those swings are even wilder.
[doublepost=1541167642][/doublepost]
That was yesterday's chart. It's down $13 right now.

The nice thing about an Xr supercycle is that the most popular version of the Xr is likely to be the 128GB model, which is $800. So that is already above the $793 ASP, so even if healthy Xr sales exceed Xs/Max sales, the ASP will likely be well above $800 (into the $850s). Unfortunately, we'll never know the actual ASP anymore.

I refreshed the app, see it now thanks.

Your right but the Xs max has been more popular than the y predicted, your $800 asp is way to conservative.

Maybe there is another trial and someone will leak unit sales for the next fiscal year. I’m looking at you Qualcomm .

 

[LordVic]

Where do you see that?

Services is around 16% of apples revenue, hardware is where apple makes most of their revenue.




Oh I see google. Sure they don’t.

Googles whole business plan is mining users data and that’s the lion share of their revenue.

you're conflating business models.

Yes, Google mines data, and then sells relevant ad space.

they do not, under any circumstances (As it's illegal in virtually every jurisdiction, except apparently USA) sell any of the data to 3rd parties.

don't conflate the two to spread your own narrative.

NOW, you can have your own opinion on whether you like to support that model or not. That's up to you and as a consumer you have every right (And excercising those rights is great).

But repeating outright lies is just silly.

now... Facebook.... that's a different matter... they're getting RAKED over the coals this last year for selling direct access to data. there's a company i'm very nervous about.

 

[sirozha]

Moving the goal posts I see. You slammed Tim Cook for being out of touch with regular people because he’s filthy rich.

Reports says otherwise.

Moving goal posts? Is $650 million not filthy rich to you? And, by the way, that's only how much AAPL stock and stock options he owns. That does not include anything else he owns, which neither of us know how much he invested in other things.

I will go out on a limb and say that when you have hundreds of millions of dollars, you are considered filthy rich by most people; apparently not by you. So, I didn't move those goal posts. You bumped into them on your own and moved them.

 

[apacho]

He's one of the worst (most wrong) analysts covering AAPL.

If ASP is already $793 with 10 days of XS sales, it's going to be closer to $900 for Xmas quarter.

Everyone else said apple will skyrocket, he was the only one giving a chilling warning, so he proved to be right!
The ASP could be due to the X success he is mentioning.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...end-stock-tanking-30-percent-in-2019-14700435

 

[sirozha]

"They" are. It's not a secret society. I'm talking about the big banks and trading firms. The Merrill Lynch's and Goldman Sach's of the world.

They use the financial media (CNBC, Bloomberg, FinancialTimes) to put out reports and stories from suspect analysts and insiders. By using the media this way, it gives the report legitimacy.

Then legions of folks (or bots) on message boards and forums will pass this information around.

This drives sentiment in a particular direction, that allows the big guys to buy or sell at advantageous levels.

If you go back and look at the reports from 1 or 2 years ago, you'll see how so many of them were completely wrong. Ask yourself how an analyst who gets every report wrong gets to keep their job. Then you'll have the answer.

In order for this theory of yours to work in the real world, the large investments banks must launch this negative campaign at the same time; otherwise, it's not going to be effective, and most who try to trade on this "fake news" campaign will lose money. Since, according to you, they make money on these "pumps" and "dumps" as a matter of fact, apparently, there's an organized conspiracy that allows them to manipulate the stock in such a devious way. You should totally report this to the SEC for investigation and possible criminal prosecution.