Apple Reports 4Q 2018 Results: $14.1B Profit on $62.9B Revenue, 46.9M iPhones

[FFR]

you're conflating business models.

Yes, Google mines data, and then sells relevant ad space.

they do not, under any circumstances (As it's illegal in virtually every jurisdiction, except apparently USA) sell any of the data to 3rd parties.

don't conflate the two to spread your own narrative.

NOW, you can have your own opinion on whether you like to support that model or not. That's up to you and as a consumer you have every right (And excercising those rights is great).

But repeating outright lies is just silly.

now... Facebook.... that's a different matter... they're getting RAKED over the coals this last year for selling direct access to data. there's a company i'm very nervous about.

Conflating business models. WTH?

I stated plainly googles business model and lions share of their revenue is through data mining.

How they sell the data they mine and to who, that’s another story entirely.
You want to talk about google or Facebook start a new thread.

 

[ignatius345]

How about that. Even with all the negelect on the Mac side, it's still nearly twice the revenue of the iPad. Really makes you question the way the Mac gets token updates these days and the iPad sees incredible leaps in functionality.

 

[ipponrg]

In order for this theory of yours to work in the real world, the large investments banks must launch this negative campaign at the same time; otherwise, it's not going to be effective, and most who try to trade on this "fake news" campaign will lose money. Since, according to you, they make money on these "pumps" and "dumps" as a matter of fact, apparently, there's an organized conspiracy that allows them to manipulate the stock in such a devious way. You should totally report this to the SEC for investigation and possible criminal prosecution.

In the real world, there are things called "bending the truth".

The narratives that people say are usually only half truths twisted to fit narratives. I cannot confirm nor deny that analysts make money off these half truths, but all people should be cognizant of this including Apple lovers and haters.

 

[stylinexpat]

Seems to happen post every release. wouldn't read much into right now.

------

Financials look good for now. I'm expecting that the XR will be a supercycle for them financialy.

The question will be sales volumes and number of units shipped. Last few quarters we've seen that slow down dramatically. Most of the revenue/profit increases were based on higher asking prices, and not higher movement of volume.

Is that the case here? Or did we see a big set of movement of the Xs and Xs+. One thing Apple migth have to be careful with is as volume declines (usually what happens if you start raising prices especially in a maturing market like mobile phones) is the potential of driving away customers. There's an equilibrium that needs to be found. But this is generally the part where Tim Cook shines as CEO, the financial decisions.

XR I believe will do extremely well due to the price point. it's the first Apple "Notched" phone available at the standard iPhone price points. Those who bought the 7 or 8 and have a ceiling of $750 for what they're willing to spend will likely buy it as it's the first visual redesign in 4 years.

This is 2 days in a row now with huge losses. Too much money for 2 more GB of RAM and no more numbers of what items are being sold is a bad sign

 

[ftaok]

In order for this theory of yours to work in the real world, the large investments banks must launch this negative campaign at the same time; otherwise, it's not going to be effective, and most who try to trade on this "fake news" campaign will lose money. Since, according to you, they make money on these "pumps" and "dumps" as a matter of fact, apparently, there's an organized conspiracy that allows them to manipulate the stock in such a devious way. You should totally report this to the SEC for investigation and possible criminal prosecution.

What I've described is not illegal in any way that can garner a prosecution. It' only highly immoral.

Analysts are careful to present "analysis" and not facts. The complicit financial media outlets are careful to never present anything as fact. This allows the manipulation to happen with little recourse.

How many times do you see reports after the Christmas quarter saying that iPhone sales are weak because supply chain analysts have caught wind of a decrease in orders? These analysts will then say that they're updating their models and it shows that demand for the iPhone is weak. So there are two pieces of information here. 1-iPhone orders went down. This can be proven to be true. 2-iPhone demand is weak. This is an opinion of the analyst.

Tim Cook has said it many times that Supply Chain analysis is a poor method to determine iPhone demand (and typically proven over and over), yet year after year, these same analysts and the same media outlets will pump out this story about weak demand.

Obviously, not every bank or analyst engages in this type of behavior. It was hyperbole on my part. There's no conspiracy at all because it's all out in the open if you just look.

 

[LordVic]

This is 2 days in a row now with huge losses. Too much money for 2 more GB of RAM and no more numbers of what items are being sold is a bad sign

View attachment 800597

While it doesn't look good and not arguing your logic either (I believe it's part of it for sure, just read my take in my other posts)

RIGHT NOW, the whole industry / market is in a decline. October has been devastating for most markets. This could be part of the trend, or a leader in that trend. I'm not about to guess just yet.

look at the Oct index numberes and overall performance. October was HARD on investors.

 

[dilbert99]

It’s a suggestion for posters who repeatedly profess complete disdain for everything Apple. I have to wonder if one dislikes Apple why bother posting or buying their products? Wait we’ve down this road...Apple gets its requirements from online forums.

No it’s an argument that you use when you have no argument.

There are reasons why people buy things from companies even though they don’t like them as much as they used to.

Apple doesn’t get its requirements from forums, I never said it did.. I simply state that all companies listen to customers via multiple channels. Apple has listened and has given us replaceable memory in the Mac mini. So people complaining g does work.

Why do you thing that the only way to get companies to change is via the wallet. Surely you don’t think that is the only a way?

 

[stylinexpat]

While it doesn't look good and not arguing your logic either (I believe it's part of it for sure, just read my take in my other posts)

RIGHT NOW, the whole industry / market is in a decline. October has been devastating for most markets. This could be part of the trend, or a leader in that trend. I'm not about to guess just yet.

look at the Oct index numberes and overall performance. October was HARD on investors.

Yeah, That is true, October was hard but for a reason I believe. October wiped out all gains for this year on DOW in one month. Quite a few things though play into all this with Trump’s trade war with China being one of them. Apple raised prices big time recently and I am not sure if Tim baked in these new price increases for the upcoming tariffs increase by Trump on all imports From China. If these new prices are baked in for new Tariffs increase then it maybe digestible short term but if not then Apple has more to lose. Apple will not be alone though as whole economy will suffer from trade war with China due tariffs increase. Some and many can afford to pay more but many many people also can not afford to pay more and will not pay more which will hurt sales numbers big time in my opinion. One must remember that while some Americans can afford to pay more many others around the world can not and will not pay more. It makes a big difference in countries where people earn and make less money. You will see over time. Apple knows this which is why they decided to stop announcing sales numbers on their products.

 

[falainber]

Conflating business models. WTH?

I stated plainly googles business model and lions share of their revenue is through data mining.

How they sell the data they mine and to who, that’s another story entirely.
You want to talk about google or Facebook start a new thread.

How they sell the data they mine - once again, they don't sell the data. Is it really that difficult to understand? Their revenue does not come through data mining. It comes from advertising. Data mining helps to make advertising to be better targeted.

 

[ignatius345]

This is 2 days in a row now with huge losses. Too much money for 2 more GB of RAM and no more numbers of what items are being sold is a bad sign

View attachment 800597

Yeah, I kind of doubt Apple's prices for RAM upgrades are fuelling a selloff. Look at the markets in general this week and the tech sector in particular, and you'll see that Apple's stock dropping a bit isn't exactly an anomoly. And to put this in context maybe zoom out on your stock chart. That tiny little notch you see on the far right are these "huge losses" you speak of. Not negligable, but also the current drop rolls us back to the AAPL's price in August of this year.




You see more than your share of aggrieved (rightly or not) techies here in these forums, but let's not mistake what we see in this self-selected bubble as indicative of what actually moves the needle on Apple's profits in any meaningful way.

 

[LordVic]

Yeah, I kind of doubt Apple's prices for RAM upgrades are fuelling a selloff. Sure, you see more than your share of aggrieved (rightly or not) techies here in these forums, but let's not mistake what we see in this self-selected bubble as indicative of what actually moves the needle on Apple's profits in any meaningful way.

The problem isn't the upgrade prices. Those have ALWAYS been fairly high. And honestly aren't completely out of tune with other OEM's.

But right now, Apple's basic asking prices have gone up accross the board in the last couple years. Apple was already always a premium priced product. Now it's Premium+ Priced. Biggest problem with this model (potential) is that if they're not offering something compelling enough to differentiate itself, it might run into some stumbling blocks while people who aren't married to Apple decide to go elsewhere. What is the question is how many people are willing.


For example, the new Mac Mini is a gorgous little machine. the internals are nothing to complain about. But the new price point (another $100 increase from 2014) makes it a hard comparison to whats available from others.

What Apple is charging for their base model, i3 variant of the Mini will get you an i7 reasonably equiped intel NUC. If you're not married to OSx and the mini form factor, you can build a small desktop computer of equal performance for $400 less.

As these prices continue to rise, consumeres, who tend to be far more fickle, might opt to go elsewhere if that price becomes a pill just too much to swallow for the tech. There is a tipping point. question is what is it. how far is apple willing to "push" it.

Apple tended historically to do extremely well with their pricing when they had things that nobody else had. the MacBook air for example did lead the charge in Ultrabooks. for a couple years there, if you wanted an ultrabook, it was the MacBook Air and none else, so you paid the premium. But what happens if the only difference between the competition is the price?

There's a reason why as of lasat quarter, Apple's computer sales volume were down to their 2010 levels and declining. And it wasn't just outdated tech.

 

[ignatius345]

The problem isn't the upgrade prices. Those have ALWAYS been fairly high. And honestly aren't completely out of tune with other OEM's.

But right now, Apple's basic asking prices have gone up accross the board in the last couple years. Apple was already always a premium priced product. Now it's Premium+ Priced. Biggest problem with this model (potential) is that if they're not offering something compelling enough to differentiate itself, it might run into some stumbling blocks while people who aren't married to Apple decide to go elsewhere. What is the question is how many people are willing.


For example, the new Mac Mini is a gorgous little machine. the internals are nothing to complain about. But the new price point (another $100 increase from 2014) makes it a hard comparison to whats available from others.

What Apple is charging for their base model, i3 variant of the Mini will get you an i7 reasonably equiped intel NUC. If you're not married to OSx and the mini form factor, you can build a small desktop computer of equal performance for $400 less.

As these prices continue to rise, consumeres, who tend to be far more fickle, might opt to go elsewhere if that price becomes a pill just too much to swallow for the tech. There is a tipping point. question is what is it. how far is apple willing to "push" it.

Apple tended historically to do extremely well with their pricing when they had things that nobody else had. the MacBook air for example did lead the charge in Ultrabooks. for a couple years there, if you wanted an ultrabook, it was the MacBook Air and none else, so you paid the premium. But what happens if the only difference between the competition is the price?

There's a reason why as of lasat quarter, Apple's computer sales volume were down to their 2010 levels and declining. And it wasn't just outdated tech.

It's an interesting hypothesis, for sure. Let's remember that Macs are 12% of revenue, though. Not to go too off-topic, I kind of get the impression from the keynote on Monday that they couldn't give a rat's *** about the Mac at this point -- all we got were token hardware updates and all the ground-breaking, eye-popping hardware innovation was on the iPad side of things.

If you're right about overpriced Macs driving sales and profits down, though, I guess we'll find out in the coming months.

 

[Baymowe335]

Everyone else said apple will skyrocket, he was the only one giving a chilling warning, so he proved to be right!
The ASP could be due to the X success he is mentioning.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...end-stock-tanking-30-percent-in-2019-14700435

He wasn’t right at all...the long term story for Apple is intact and the stock is still up 25% this year. Yeah, great call.

Apple already has skyrocketed, so pulling back some is natural. They just reported record numbers, growing revenue 20% and earnings 40%. We will see what happens in 2019.

Sometimes, what the stock does is completely unrelated to the numbers. He predicted something about 2019 numbers, which we haven’t seen yet.

 

[sirozha]

In the real world, there are things called "bending the truth".

The narratives that people say are usually only half truths twisted to fit narratives. I cannot confirm nor deny that analysts make money off these half truths, but all people should be cognizant of this including Apple lovers and haters.

In other words, it’s a complete conjecture on your part.

 

[MrX8503]

Moving goal posts? Is $650 million not filthy rich to you? And, by the way, that's only how much AAPL stock and stock options he owns. That does not include anything else he owns, which neither of us know how much he invested in other things.

I will go out on a limb and say that when you have hundreds of millions of dollars, you are considered filthy rich by most people; apparently not by you. So, I didn't move those goal posts. You bumped into them on your own and moved them.

Nope. You slammed him for being out of touch with regular people and then changed your argument to him not being a visionary when you were proven wrong on the former.

 

[ftaok]

The problem isn't the upgrade prices. Those have ALWAYS been fairly high. And honestly aren't completely out of tune with other OEM's.

But right now, Apple's basic asking prices have gone up accross the board in the last couple years. Apple was already always a premium priced product. Now it's Premium+ Priced. Biggest problem with this model (potential) is that if they're not offering something compelling enough to differentiate itself, it might run into some stumbling blocks while people who aren't married to Apple decide to go elsewhere. What is the question is how many people are willing.


For example, the new Mac Mini is a gorgous little machine. the internals are nothing to complain about. But the new price point (another $100 increase from 2014) makes it a hard comparison to whats available from others.

What Apple is charging for their base model, i3 variant of the Mini will get you an i7 reasonably equiped intel NUC. If you're not married to OSx and the mini form factor, you can build a small desktop computer of equal performance for $400 less.

As these prices continue to rise, consumeres, who tend to be far more fickle, might opt to go elsewhere if that price becomes a pill just too much to swallow for the tech. There is a tipping point. question is what is it. how far is apple willing to "push" it.

Apple tended historically to do extremely well with their pricing when they had things that nobody else had. the MacBook air for example did lead the charge in Ultrabooks. for a couple years there, if you wanted an ultrabook, it was the MacBook Air and none else, so you paid the premium. But what happens if the only difference between the competition is the price?

There's a reason why as of lasat quarter, Apple's computer sales volume were down to their 2010 levels and declining. And it wasn't just outdated tech.

There's two ways to look at this from a consumer's perspective. I would say that a majority of users do not upgrade their phones every year. People are holding onto their phones longer and longer. iPhones now are getting 6 to 7 iOS updates these days. Consumers can justify spending $1000 on a phone that they're gonna use for 4 years. That's only $250 per year. In the old days, you might hold onto your $650 phone for two years, for a $325/year cost.

Also, since the phones are lasting longer, at least with iPhones, the resale value is higher, so even if you update every year, it's not costing as much overall. A lot of it (at least in the USA) has to do with the elimination of subsidy plans which hid the overall cost of the phone.

Right now, phones are a mature market. Flat sales does make for a doomy story, but as long as Apple has a larger user base (and maintains it), they're other recurring revenue streams stand to make significant revenue ... typically at higher margins.

As for the other Apple products like Macs and iPads, they've flattened a long time ago. Apple can still generate revenue from those products.

Key going forward is to find the next significant revenue growth business. Everyone and their brother assumes that it's the Services business. Probably, but I'm thinking Apple has something cooking that no one forsees and will be the driver for the next decade.

 

[sirozha]

What I've described is not illegal in any way that can garner a prosecution. It' only highly immoral.

Analysts are careful to present "analysis" and not facts. The complicit financial media outlets are careful to never present anything as fact. This allows the manipulation to happen with little recourse.

How many times do you see reports after the Christmas quarter saying that iPhone sales are weak because supply chain analysts have caught wind of a decrease in orders? These analysts will then say that they're updating their models and it shows that demand for the iPhone is weak. So there are two pieces of information here. 1-iPhone orders went down. This can be proven to be true. 2-iPhone demand is weak. This is an opinion of the analyst.

Tim Cook has said it many times that Supply Chain analysis is a poor method to determine iPhone demand (and typically proven over and over), yet year after year, these same analysts and the same media outlets will pump out this story about weak demand.

Obviously, not every bank or analyst engages in this type of behavior. It was hyperbole on my part. There's no conspiracy at all because it's all out in the open if you just look.

Tornados and hurricanes are also very disruptive to the economy. Yet, they are natural forces that we cannot do anything about. I treat the analysts the same way. They do what they do, and because they get paid for what they do, there must be a reason for their existence and place for them in the stock market economy. For any one firm or bank to be able to bring about a “dump” of any stock, they would have to intentionally spread false information to try and spook the markets. When this happens, SEC launches an investigation and prosecuted the offenders. In all other cases, to engineer a “dump,” a concerted effort is required by dozens of analysts, which is extremely unlikely to have occurred or to be occurring in the future IMHO.

There could be a legitimate reason for AAPL to have lost 6% today. Maybe I’m not the only one who disagrees with Tim Cook’s vision for the future of Apple.

 

[LordVic]

There's two ways to look at this from a consumer's perspective. I would say that a majority of users do not upgrade their phones every year. People are holding onto their phones longer and longer. iPhones now are getting 6 to 7 iOS updates these days. Consumers can justify spending $1000 on a phone that they're gonna use for 4 years. That's only $250 per year. In the old days, you might hold onto your $650 phone for two years, for a $325/year cost.

Also, since the phones are lasting longer, at least with iPhones, the resale value is higher, so even if you update every year, it's not costing as much overall. A lot of it (at least in the USA) has to do with the elimination of subsidy plans which hid the overall cost of the phone.

Right now, phones are a mature market. Flat sales does make for a doomy story, but as long as Apple has a larger user base (and maintains it), they're other recurring revenue streams stand to make significant revenue ... typically at higher margins.

As for the other Apple products like Macs and iPads, they've flattened a long time ago. Apple can still generate revenue from those products.

Key going forward is to find the next significant revenue growth business. Everyone and their brother assumes that it's the Services business. Probably, but I'm thinking Apple has something cooking that no one forsees and will be the driver for the next decade.

I think thats why we're seeing such a push into services. Movies, etc. These are more reliable longer term stable income. when you're reliant on the bulk of your money being consumer hardware in a mature market, you either pivot your company to be less growth and more stability (not something we've seen yet) or expand into other growth sectors.

media and services to deliver that have been fairly consistent for growth.

problem with relying on the iPhone, a 20% dip in sales (i know, didn't happen) would be catastrophic for their revenues.

 

[ftaok]

Tornados and hurricanes are also very disruptive to the economy. Yet, they are natural forces that we cannot do anything about. I treat the analysts the same way. They do what they do, and because they get paid for what they do, there must be a reason for their existence and place for them in the stock market economy. For any one firm or bank to be able to bring about a “dump” of any stock, they would have to intentionally spread false information to try and spook the markets. When this happens, SEC launches an investigation and prosecuted the offenders. In all other cases, to engineer a “dump,” a concerted effort is required by dozens of analysts, which is extremely unlikely to have occurred or to be occurring in the future IMHO.

There could be a legitimate reason for AAPL to have lost 6% today. Maybe I’m not the only one who disagrees with Tim Cook’s vision for the future of Apple.

You can choose to believe whatever you want. That's fine.

Or you can see what prominent fund managers have done and admitted to in the past without any repercussions. Take Jim Cramer, for example. He's described simple stock manipulations that he used to do when he was a hedge fund manager to drive the price of a stock in a direction that he wanted to.

Here's a youtube link.

As for why Apple has dropped 6% today, of course there could be legit reasons. Obviously the market is spooked by flat iPhone sales. Combine that with Apple stating that they will no longer provide unit sales data for iPhone, that has everyone assuming that Apple is trying to hide falling iPhone sales going forward.

What I refer to is the continual flooding of negative Apple stories year after year, without anyone in the business attempting to refute, even in the face of being proven wrong over and over. That's the manipulation that happens.

At some point, when the stock has been beaten up enough, you'll see stories coming from the analysts as to why the next supercycle of iPhone is about to happen. Could be the very same analysts putting out the negative stories today. Of course they'll have notified their clients to buy AAPL before they publish their bullish reports.

In regards to the future, yes, eventually iPhone sales will plateau. Every market reaches saturation eventually. The smartphone market will not be the exception. The key will be whether Apple can withstand flat sales with higher ASP's or not. Right now, most analysts are bearish about that. I'm bullish on it. Apple sold the same number of iPhones last quarter as they did a year ago. Yet they grew revenue 28%. Eventually, they'll be unable to grow the ASP on flat/declining sales, so they better have another source of revenue handy when that happens.
[doublepost=1541177222][/doublepost]

I think thats why we're seeing such a push into services. Movies, etc. These are more reliable longer term stable income. when you're reliant on the bulk of your money being consumer hardware in a mature market, you either pivot your company to be less growth and more stability (not something we've seen yet) or expand into other growth sectors.

media and services to deliver that have been fairly consistent for growth.

problem with relying on the iPhone, a 20% dip in sales (i know, didn't happen) would be catastrophic for their revenues.

Totally agree. Apple has a track record of being able to pivot and creating an all new revenue stream. Services could be that stream, or maybe they have something up their sleeves.

EDIT - Here's an example of analysts and the media lying, but not lying.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/heres-what-every-major-analyst-had-to-say-about-apples-earnings.html

DAMMIT - cnbc.com changed the link for that story above. Nevermind, I found the link in my browser history.

The headline here says Apple's guidance (referring to Q1-2019) is weak. For the record, Apple is guiding between $89 and $93 billion. In that article, JPMorgan's quote is that the avgEstimate is $92.6B and JPM's estimate is $93.1B. Apple routinely beats their high end guidance (I think something like 3 of the last four quarters and 7 of the last 8), which would put them at $93+B. Which would exceed the average and probably meet JPM's estimate. Yet the headline is "weaker guidance".

Note that the 92.6/93.1 estimates were raised in the two months leading up to yesterday. If the analysts had kept their original numbers (from Aug 1st), Apple guidance would be looked upon as "upbeat" or "herculian". Yet the major institutions all raised their estimates and they still couldn't get above Apple's guidance.

Tell me that's not manipulation.

 

[ipponrg]

In other words, it’s a complete conjecture on your part.

In other words, you should wake up. The world is not as clear as black and white.

 

[sirozha]

You can choose to believe whatever you want. That's fine.

Or you can see what prominent fund managers have done and admitted to in the past without any repercussions. Take Jim Cramer, for example. He's described simple stock manipulations that he used to do when he was a hedge fund manager to drive the price of a stock in a direction that he wanted to.

Here's a youtube link.

As for why Apple has dropped 6% today, of course there could be legit reasons. Obviously the market is spooked by flat iPhone sales. Combine that with Apple stating that they will no longer provide unit sales data for iPhone, that has everyone assuming that Apple is trying to hide falling iPhone sales going forward.

What I refer to is the continual flooding of negative Apple stories year after year, without anyone in the business attempting to refute, even in the face of being proven wrong over and over. That's the manipulation that happens.

At some point, when the stock has been beaten up enough, you'll see stories coming from the analysts as to why the next supercycle of iPhone is about to happen. Could be the very same analysts putting out the negative stories today. Of course they'll have notified their clients to buy AAPL before they publish their bullish reports.

In regards to the future, yes, eventually iPhone sales will plateau. Every market reaches saturation eventually. The smartphone market will not be the exception. The key will be whether Apple can withstand flat sales with higher ASP's or not. Right now, most analysts are bearish about that. I'm bullish on it. Apple sold the same number of iPhones last quarter as they did a year ago. Yet they grew revenue 28%. Eventually, they'll be unable to grow the ASP on flat/declining sales, so they better have another source of revenue handy when that happens.
[doublepost=1541177222][/doublepost]
Totally agree. Apple has a track record of being able to pivot and creating an all new revenue stream. Services could be that stream, or maybe they have something up their sleeves.

I basically agree with everything you said here. Jim Cramer is a known provocateur, but he is an actor, not a criminal. He knows better than doing or saying something that will land him in prison for many years. Jim Cramer may be able to manipulate AAPL because of his high-profile status on TV, but knowing his reputation, it's hard to imagine anyone would fall for his shenanigans at this point.

I've been investing in AAPL for long enough to have observed exactly the behavior of the analysts that you have described. I used to be upset at them for doing what they do every quarter. I also never (until recently) understood why they are so infatuated with AMZN or even TSLA. However, I'm starting to realize that net income (profit) is not the only metric that they go by to value a corporation. In fact, it's not even the main metric. They look into the long-term goals and strategies when they decide how the stock should be valued. AAPL has had over $200 billion USD in the bank now for years and years. They have raised the dividend (which I'm happy about), and have been buying back AAPL shares, which I'm neutral on. However, they have done NOTHING with that money to invest in the future of the company outside of building a new campus for a few billion dollars and building a few data centers. Tim Cook has no clue about what to do with this money. Steve Jobs was paranoid about money and wanted to keep a healthy stash in the bank for the rainy day, but over $200 billion in a bank is much more than a rainy-day stash. Steve Jobs passed away before he told Tim Cook what Tim should be doing with this incredible amount of money, and so, Apple has no clue what to do. At the same time, Jeff Bezos is investing almost every penny that Amazon makes into the business. He bought Whole Foods. It was a great move on his part. He invested in the cloud computing with AWS, and the Amazon cloud computing platform is a real cloud unlike iCloud, which is an amateurish joke. Apple can't even figure out shared storage in iCloud for family members. I have to use Dropbox to be able to share my business documents with my wife because if I keep them in iCloud, my wife has no access to those folders. That is basic stuff that Apple can't figure out. Apple can't figure out iCloud Photo libraries shared with family members either. The progress of the development of iCloud services has been moving at a snail's pace for years now.

Apple has the money to do it right, but their services lag in every respect behind their competitors. Siri is another disastrous example of how incompetent the Apple's management is with respect to improving their cloud services. Another one is Apple Maps. Where is the long-promised Apple's TV streaming service? AT&T is now doing it, Google is doing it, Playstation is doing it, Sling is doing it, etc. Where is Apple; are they asleep at the wheel? I believe so. I can continue this list for a long time. Why isn't Apple fixing these issues? If the iPhone sales are now plateauing, and the services are the new main revenue stream for Apple going forward, why are the services so darn inadequate?

With the higher selling prices for the new Macs, there's one place where Apple can make a killing with the Mac, which is the enterprise. However, Apple is so incompetent in enterprise sales that they are leaving an incredible amount of money on the table. They don't have a good way for enterprises to repair computers, for instance. You have to take the computer to the local Apple store like any consumer would, even if you are a sizable business. That's unacceptable for large and even medium-size enterprises. This incompetence on the part of Apple is shocking to me as a shareholder. In the past, the argument was that Apple's main revenue stream is the iPhone, so they didn't really care about anything else. Well, guess what? It's time to start caring about these other things: services, enterprise sales, etc., and its' time to start using the $200+ billion stash for reinvesting in the business and coming out with something new rather than trying to keep the AAPL stock afloat with buybacks. Boost the AAPL price by doing what Amazon is doing, i.e. reinvesting into the future of the company.

The Apple Watch was a good try, but it will not make a significant contribution to the Apple's bottom line. They need either to come up with another blockbuster product like what they did with the iPhone in 2007 when they realized they couldn't grow business on Macs and iPods alone, or they need to bring order and perfection into their cloud services, their Mac penetration into enterprises, etc.

I wonder when Tim Cook is planning to retire because it doesn't seem to me that he has a long-term plan. His plan may work for a couple more quarters, or maybe even for a couple more years - now that Apple will no longer show the volume of devices sold each quarter, but eventually, they will run out of people who can afford their ever-increasing prices, so they'd better have another plan.

 

[apacho]

He wasn’t right at all...the long term story for Apple is intact and the stock is still up 25% this year. Yeah, great call.

Apple already has skyrocketed, so pulling back some is natural. They just reported record numbers, growing revenue 20% and earnings 40%. We will see what happens in 2019.

Sometimes, what the stock does is completely unrelated to the numbers. He predicted something about 2019 numbers, which we haven’t seen yet.

We just see the beginning of his prediction.
Like it or not but Apple cant grow to infinity, actually they are already declining that's the reason for hiding the numbers in the future.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-02/blain-what-apple-hiding

 

[ftaok]

I basically agree with everything you said here. Jim Cramer is a known provocateur, but he is an actor, not a criminal. He knows better than doing or saying something that will land him in prison for many years. Jim Cramer may be able to manipulate AAPL because of his high-profile status on TV, but knowing his reputation, it's hard to imagine anyone would fall for his shenanigans at this point.

I've been investing in AAPL for long enough to have observed exactly the behavior of the analysts that you have described. I used to be upset at them for doing what they do every quarter. I also never (until recently) understood why they are so infatuated with AMZN or even TSLA. However, I'm starting to realize that net income (profit) is not the only metric that they go by to value a corporation. In fact, it's not even the main metric. They look into the long-term goals and strategies when they decide how the stock should be valued. AAPL has had over $200 billion USD in the bank now for years and years. They have raised the dividend (which I'm happy about), and have been buying back AAPL shares, which I'm neutral on. However, they have done NOTHING with that money to invest in the future of the company outside of building a new campus for a few billion dollars and building a few data centers. Tim Cook has no clue about what to do with this money. Steve Jobs was paranoid about money and wanted to keep a healthy stash in the bank for the rainy day, but over $200 billion in a bank is much more than a rainy-day stash. Steve Jobs passed away before he told Tim Cook what Tim should be doing with this incredible amount of money, and so, Apple has no clue what to do. At the same time, Jeff Bezos is investing almost every penny that Amazon makes into the business. He bought Whole Foods. It was a great move on his part. He invested in the cloud computing with AWS, and the Amazon cloud computing platform is a real cloud unlike iCloud, which is an amateurish joke. Apple can't even figure out shared storage in iCloud for family members. I have to use Dropbox to be able to share my business documents with my wife because if I keep them in iCloud, my wife has no access to those folders. That is basic stuff that Apple can't figure out. Apple can't figure out iCloud Photo libraries shared with family members either. The progress of the development of iCloud services has been moving at a snail's pace for years now.

Apple has the money to do it right, but their services lag in every respect behind their competitors. Siri is another disastrous example of how incompetent the Apple's management is with respect to improving their cloud services. Another one is Apple Maps. Where is the long-promised Apple's TV streaming service? AT&T is now doing it, Google is doing it, Playstation is doing it, Sling is doing it, etc. Where is Apple; are they asleep at the wheel? I believe so. I can continue this list for a long time. Why isn't Apple fixing these issues? If the iPhone sales are now plateauing, and the services are the new main revenue stream for Apple going forward, why are the services so darn inadequate?

With the higher selling prices for the new Macs, there's one place where Apple can make a killing with the Mac, which is the enterprise. However, Apple is so incompetent in enterprise sales that they are leaving an incredible amount of money on the table. They don't have a good way for enterprises to repair computers, for instance. You have to take the computer to the local Apple store like any consumer would, even if you are a sizable business. That's unacceptable for large and even medium-size enterprises. This incompetence on the part of Apple is shocking to me as a shareholder. In the past, the argument was that Apple's main revenue stream is the iPhone, so they didn't really care about anything else. Well, guess what? It's time to start caring about these other things: services, enterprise sales, etc., and its' time to start using the $200+ billion stash for reinvesting in the business and coming out with something new rather than trying to keep the AAPL stock afloat with buybacks. Boost the AAPL price by doing what Amazon is doing, i.e. reinvesting into the future of the company.

The Apple Watch was a good try, but it will not make a significant contribution to the Apple's bottom line. They need either to come up with another blockbuster product like what they did with the iPhone in 2007 when they realized they couldn't grow business on Macs and iPods alone, or they need to bring order and perfection into their cloud services, their Mac penetration into enterprises, etc.

I wonder when Tim Cook is planning to retire because it doesn't seem to me that he has a long-term plan. His plan may work for a couple more quarters, or maybe even for a couple more years - now that Apple will no longer show the volume of devices sold each quarter, but eventually, they will run out of people who can afford their ever-increasing prices, so they'd better have another plan.

I can't refute anything you've said above here. I agree with much of it. Could Apple be doing more with their cash? Certainly. But it's not in their culture. Apple doesn't and has never really cared to publicly tout their moonshots like Google used to. They quietly work on things and when they're ready, they spring it on the world as the next magically thing.

At this point, they can't change. If they announce all of their stuff that they have cooking in the lab, and only 2 out of the 20 things they're working on hit, they'll never live it down. It really is a double edged sword for AAPL at this point.

Going into some of the specifics that you mentioned above ...

Streaming TV. You say that Google, AT&T, Sony, Sling, etc. are all doing it, so why can't Apple? I'll tell you why. The content owners (aka the Networks) don't want Apple in this arena. They saw what Apple did to the music industry and are fighting like hell to keep them out. Right now, what can Apple offer that YoutubeTV or PlaystationVue not offer? It would be the same thing at the same price. So who cares if Apple is in it or not? There's likely very little margin in it for Apple to want to duke it out for scraps. For Apple to get into this arena, they'll need to be able to provide something that the others can't. Network TV isn't it.

They want to compete against Netflix and AmazonPrimeTV. But that takes time and I will admit that I think they jumped in way too late. Plus their culture is at odds with what America wants for original programming. They should see what it takes to buy HBO and let go of the Puritan attitudes and that could set them apart from Netflix/Amazon.

As for the other services, yeah, iCloud is overpriced and kinda useless. AppleMaps has been just fine for me. Siri hasn't gotten any better in years, they need to overhaul that whole thing.

 

[KPandian1]

In the real world, there are things called "bending the truth".

The narratives that people say are usually only half truths twisted to fit narratives.

In other words, it’s a complete conjecture on your part.

The market is always manipulated in subtle (won't get caught blatantly breaking rules) ways.

The price drop is good for Apple in its ongoing buyback program, but the company made a ton of money beyond expectations, not WS speculations.

This is good for day-traders, which is what the entire stock market dealers are.

Conjecture is an opinion that is proved or disproved days or weeks eventually.

 

[ftaok]

We just see the beginning of his prediction.
Like it or not but Apple cant grow to infinity, actually they are already declining that's the reason for hiding the numbers in the future.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-02/blain-what-apple-hiding

Where are they declining?

That guy had a $165 price target when he put out that interview. He said that the success of the X would curtail the demand for the 2018 model(s). Doesn't look like that has happened nor will happen in the future.

As for the reasoning for Apple hiding the unit sales, there could be lots of reasons. One of which could be that sales are falling. Or it could be that Apple is taking this opportunity to remove the ability for analysts to use unit sales as a weapon against Apple's stock price. Unit sales is becoming a more and more irrelevant number for Apple. They'll still give revenue numbers and that's really the point. Unit sales were really only for people who cared about market share, which Apple has never cared about.