Apple Supplier Numbers Suggest Apple Watch Sales Are Below Analyst Expectations

[maflynn]

The Apple Watch is a bag of hurt.

I don't think its that bad.

Do I think Apple erred in the apple watch, yes, there were missteps. Partly not managing expectations, partly in rolling it out (read the dopey reservation thing) and partly not defining better what the watch can and cannot do.

With that said, I think the apple watch is the best smart watch out there, and I think its selling in numbers that are profitable to apple, just not hugely profitable.

 

[Rogifan]

That's a fair statement. I'm willing to bet the Apple watch will improve over time, but for now it's just not a must have gadget.

Fair enough. My frustration is really around expectations and this idea that if its not a must have that means it's a flop. Is that bar now for every Apple product, gen 1 has to be a "must have" or it's a flop? Honestly I think that's ridiculous. iPad is the only Apple product that took off fast but now we're seeing it decline and level off a bit.

 

[samcraig]

And what is the definition of "well"? Who decides? Is it 2 million? 3 million? Some crazy number a Wall Street analyst pulls out of their rear end?

Why are you so wrapped up with the Apple Watch? You seem to be very passionate about it from all angles.

 

[Pakaku]

Why are people so hung about wanting to know how many Apple watches were sold?

Scenario 1) They sold well (darn it , competition and Apple haters are unhappy)
Scenario 2) They DIDN"T sell well (yay, competition and Apple haters are happy)

Everybody pick what scenario they like.

They sold relatively well, considering that these are a niche product which isn't supposed to sell in the trillions like a phone might.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Yeah and I'd be doing the same if there was FUD iPhones. This has nothing to do with the Watch per se. I don't even own one. I just get annoyed when supply chain chatter and guesses are equated as fact. The only facts we have are what Tim and Luca said on the earnings call.

But that is what MR is all about. If Apple sold one watch Tim would have people thinking it was the greatest invention since the wheel. Regardless of sales, I think it is a nice watch.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Why are you so wrapped up with the Apple Watch? You seem to be very passionate about it from all angles.

How have you been?

 

[HowEver]

It's a fun, comfortable addition, and I hadn't worn a watch in forever. The hate is a weird reaction from people who don't use it or know what it's like. Plus, selling millions of something that didn't exist as an Apple product before is always going to be judged a win. It's fantastic.

 

[ZipZap]

This report is not surprising. Customers know when they are being price gouged. Apple's overpriced mantra will fail with the watches.

 

[Rogifan]

Important questions..

How many countries was the iPhone and iPad available in at release? 1 for iPhone and 1 for iPad (~60 days after initial release it was available in 9 more countries)
How many countries was the Apple Watch available in at release? 9 from the get-go

So what? Right now Watch is an iPhone accessory. The idea that 3+ million sales in one quarter - when there were supply constraints and for 2+ months it wasn't even available in stores - equates to a flop is ridiculous.

And as far as Apple not managing expectations...I think Cook saying last October that Apple would be reporting Watch with accessories gives a pretty good indication of what their expectations were.

 

[ZipZap]

It's a fun, comfortable addition, and I hadn't worn a watch in forever. The hate is a weird reaction from people who don't use it or know what it's like. Plus, selling millions of something that didn't exist as an Apple product before is always going to be judged a win. It's fantastic.

The watch is a toy and most don't find added value form using it given the price. So back they go.

 

[Rogifan]

Why are you so wrapped up with the Apple Watch? You seem to be very passionate about it from all angles.

Like I said it's not about the Watch per se but the stupid FUD that gets repeated as fact. I'd be saying the same things if this was about iPhone.

Btw, I'm not a he, I'm a she.

 

[Studioman]

But if it was Samsung or a competitor the numbers would be important, as long as they were low.

They don't even quote sales of their phones, but no one seems to complain.

 

[samcraig]

So what? Right now Watch is an iPhone accessory. The idea that 3+ million sales in one quarter - when there were supply constraints and for 2+ months it wasn't even available in stores - equates to a flop is ridiculous.

And as far as Apple not managing expectations...I think Cook saying last October that Apple would be reporting Watch with accessories gives a pretty good indication of what their expectations were.

What I don't understand is your need to counter other people's commentary. I don't disagree with you and many of your posts. However, that doesn't mean other people can't interpret or believe what they want to. And I realize I'm a little hypocritical when I say that. But since there are very few "facts" here - there's bound to be a variety of interpretations.

So... that.

And the ideas of "flop," "killer" and other descriptors is really subjective anyway. My nearest bodega selling 1M oranges would be HUGE. Sunkist selling 1M oranges is not much.

Apple's biggest "enemy" is very likely itself. For many reasons.

 

[Makosuke]

Ahh! Ahh! Panic! Sell--sell now!

The Apple Watch is a catastrophic failure after only selling a few million units in three months of a version 1 product in an entirely new product category, so clearly the company is entirely doomed!

(No, seriously, please, everybody panic and sell--I assumed from the beginning that the Apple Watch in its early iterations would substantially undersell the insane, drooling predictions of the financial industry, if it ever takes off at all, so I've been waiting for everybody to panic after modest early sales so I can buy some stock when the price tanks.)

 

[DDaddyx2]

I really like my Sport as a timepiece, health band and notification system. Wear it every day and don't regret the purchase at all. Watch OS 2 should make it even better.

 

[Rogifan]

What I don't understand is your need to counter other people's commentary. I don't disagree with you and many of your posts. However, that doesn't mean other people can't interpret or believe what they want to. And I realize I'm a little hypocritical when I say that. But since there are very few "facts" here - there's bound to be a variety of interpretations.

So... that.

And the ideas of "flop," "killer" and other descriptors is really subjective anyway. My nearest bodega selling 1M oranges would be HUGE. Sunkist selling 1M oranges is not much.

Apple's biggest "enemy" is very likely itself. For many reasons.

OK my last post in this thread. My point is and has always been there is no way to define what is a success and what is a flop. That why I get so annoyed with the knee jerk "it's a flop" reactions. Like you said there are very few facts. The only fact we have is Cook saying it beat their expectations. It's a category in its infancy with very few, if any, companies reporting sales. My guess is Apple is being entirely rational about Watch estimates and it's the Wall Street clowns out of control. The same clowns that threw out iPhone "whisper" numbers of 53M right before earnings release and caused the stock to drop 5% the next day.

 

[Agent OrangeZ]

Well, every time iPhone breaks a sales record, they blow the trumpets, announce sales numbers...etc. Same with iPad... Appstore milestones. But this entirely new device category has had no mention of sales at all. Of course sales are not meeting expectations.

 

[xero9]

So what? Right now Watch is an iPhone accessory. The idea that 3+ million sales in one quarter - when there were supply constraints and for 2+ months it wasn't even available in stores - equates to a flop is ridiculous.

And as far as Apple not managing expectations...I think Cook saying last October that Apple would be reporting Watch with accessories gives a pretty good indication of what their expectations were.

Let me start by saying I never once said it was a flop. I'm simply making an observation that could indicate one reason why it sold more than the original iPhone and iPad within the first quarter.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.. At every iPhone launch they sell more iPhones than the last time. For a while I thought it was impressive, and don't get me wrong, it is.. But after a while I started to wonder how that was possible given how many they sold the year before. Every year they include more and more launch countries. Naturually there are going to be more sold due to the opportunity.

Make no mistake, the only iPhone I didn't buy was the 3GS and 4S. I'm not knocking it. But they do kind of give an impression like they're gaining serious marketshare.

 

[dazz87]

IF Apple having issue moving these watches then the device is doom

 

[Keirasplace]

What the hell expectation? The 30M a year one, the 20M one, the 15M one....
The shell game those con artist play is wondrous in its slimy transparency.
Apple will not meet their imaginary expectations ever!

The fact Apple didn't tell number is leaving "analysts" open to expound on their fabulous (sic) power of divination.
Despite being always wrong by 10-30% (that's on existing products, on new products they're off the chart wrong, a kid with a dart would be more precise) way after the facts (even when they adjust their "expectations" all the way to the release of the financial reports!)
If our reality doesn't match the facts, who cares, we create our own surreal reality say the "analysts".
It sucks for you if you couldn't be as delusional as us they say...

Funny how Cook said clearly sales were AOK (the one with the real number) on an earning call, and the CFO said it was more than Ipad launch (someone who has the legal obligation to tell the truth) yet we hear constantly the toughts of so called "analysts" rattling around like some old running on fumes exhaust pipe grating the pavement. Making themselves known through shear annoyance.

At the same time, they're almost surely shorting Apple stocks all day long while they laugh at the poor fools who sell the stocks on their "advice".

Considering they're the same ones who were off by 15M during the Iphone 6 launch, the whole thing makes me laugh.

 

[BSben]

Isn't this article just saying that analysts think that they have been doing a terrible job at analysing?
Anyway, the Apple Watch has become a big part of my life. I have become more active, I don't have my phone in my hands all the time anymore, and since Apple Pay launched in the UK, I don't even need my wallet on a normal working day. This will not be my last Apple Watch.

 

[Crigger540]

Still sold more than Samsung.

So a useless item sold more than another brands useless item?

 

[Boatboy24]

I would like to buy an Apple Watch if it wasn't entirely dependent on the iPhone.

Its not. So go for it.

 

[EarSoundstist]

I got mine at end of April and had to do without it for a few days due to a string of pixels going out in the middle of the display. (Apple sent a brand new replacement) - I missed it constantly. I never realized till then how much I had become dependent on it. Whenever I needed to send or reply to a text - I do that almost exclusively using Siri on the watch now. Whenever I got an incoming phone call or needed to make an outgoing quick one and my hands were full. Whenever I got an incoming ding of an email and my phone was in my pocket especially when I was expecting something - It's so great to just flip your wrist up in response to a tap that only you feel and instantly see whether it is something you need to reply to or not and then if not just put your wrist back down - the whole process takes literally just a couple of seconds vs. digging your phone out. I missed the fitness tracking of my morning walks and knowing when I reach certain goals. I missed controlling the music on my iPhone while in the car or at home with iPhone hooked up to the stereo. I missed using it as a remote that never gets lost to control the apple TV. Seeing the temperature outside where ever I am with just a glance at the complication on the watch face. Raising my wrist and saying "Hey Siri" to set timers, play a particular song or get directions to somewhere. Paying for stuff by just holding my wrist up to the reader. Controlling my alarm system through the Alarm.com app. Sure, it's a little rough around the edges sometimes (It is version 1 software after all and the 3rd party apps aren't even native yet) but overall I think it is already my favorite Apple device that I've ever owned and I've owned successive ones from the Mac Plus to latest iMac, iPad, iPhone and Macbook Pro going on 27 years now! If my experience is any guide - sooner or later everyone will be wearing one of these things!

 

[Analog Kid]

That's a fair statement. I'm willing to bet the Apple watch will improve over time, but for now it's just not a must have gadget.

By which you mean it's not a gadget you must have...

It's amazing how many people look at their own preferences and just extrapolate.