Apple Supplier Numbers Suggest Apple Watch Sales Are Below Analyst Expectations

[Megaman]

Here is some reasons you should buy it:

2.) You are interested in a wearable fitness device, than there is nothing better than the Apple Watch.

While your other points may or may not be true. Maybe in time, but as of now. This point is definitely not true.

Polar, Garmin, or even Tom Tom slay it in this department. Hell, Even the FitBit Surge may be better.

I own a Polar and the Garmin. Sold my Surge. Only tried the Tom Tom. Returned my Apple Watch (Thank God!).

IMO, the Apple watch is a needless, expensive gadget. It is great to show off by just wearing it though.

Great that you love yours. After all. Thats what ultimately matters.

 

[bladerunner2000]

Well, there is the rubbery piece of crap version for $399 as you put it, than there is the link bracelet one for $999. BTW, there isn't a single smartwatch out there that looks as good as the Apple Watch.

A thousand dollars for a slightly less ugly watch? LOL, you're kidding me right? The most important aspect of it, the FACE, is disgusting. No band on earth will save this piece of garbage from being aesthetically pleasing. As Oblivious.Robot already posted, the Android smartwatches are WORLDS ahead in design (but even then it's still not enough to convince me to buy one as theyre ALL gimmicks).

Watches are almost exclusively fashion statements. The Apple Watch for that reason is a miserable JOKE.

 

[Shoestring1981]

I'm really interested, but I'm going to wait until a few version for them to improve it. I can't think of any first gen apple products that wasn't flawed. The first gen Air sucked, as did the iPhone, iPad and iPod. Even the first gen iMacs were silly, not to mention Apple TV (which they're still trying to figure out). Oh and the new MacBook is the same thing. In every category I can think of it took Apple two or three iterations until they got it right. Why would the watch be any different?

I think the mistake was to make such a big deal out of the watch - they should have introduced it as a hobby, much like they did the Apple TV. Just like the Apple TV will be held back until content providers turn around and offer a la carte service, the Apple watch won't be ready for prime time until the battery lasts more than two days and can run on its own. Unfortunately the tech isn't here yet. They'll get there... eventually. That and the price needs to come down - and it will. The original MacBook Air was almost twice as much as it is today.

 

[hayesk]

A thousand dollars for a slightly less ugly watch? LOL, you're kidding me right? The most important aspect of it, the FACE, is disgusting. No band on earth will save this piece of garbage from being aesthetically pleasing. As Oblivious.Robot already posted, the Android smartwatches are WORLDS ahead in design (but even then it's still not enough to convince me to buy one as theyre ALL gimmicks).

Watches are almost exclusively fashion statements. The Apple Watch for that reason is a miserable JOKE.

Everyone I know who has an Apple Watch loves theirs. Everyone I know who's seen one thinks they look good. Some of the Android watches look ok. I originally liked the LG Urbane in the marketing photos, but they were deceptive and tried to hide how thick they were. When I saw a real one, I was shocked how clunky it appeared. The Moto 360 looks ok, as long as designers take the time to design for a round screen.

A miserable joke though? How do you come to that conclusion while offering nothing more than a personal opinion on the aesthetics?

 

[KiwiAdventure]

As I predicted New Zealand has just had Apple's watch first day of sales and no more than 30 people were at the first store to open.

I like Apple products and have a few, but the watch no thanks as it doesn't have GPS. I would only use it for running or other sports. I would never wear the watch full time and other Kiwis agree.

A phone doesn't matter if they all look the same but a watch it's a fashion statement wearing a watch.

 

[azentropy]

Really wanted to want one, but still holding off. Most interested in the fitness part but without GPS and without a water proof guarantee, I'm still passing. It simply needs to do more standalone at that price.

 

[ghost187]

View attachment 572265

Moto 360 comes to mind, which imo is what I had pictured Apple watch would be like but even better.

That press shot looks really good, but have you seen the moto "270" in person? The bezel on the bottom actually has a weird glare on the glass (hard to explain) that is very distracting. Also, all android smartwatches are HUGE.

 

[motulist]

It's certainly looking grim for the ill-fated Apple Watch.

It looks as though it will struggle to reach 10 million sales in its first year. I'm afraid to say that if it drops below 10 million, it will be a failure. The market appears to be seeing the same thing: Apple's share price is down 6% in the past three months, which reflects the appalling launch and reception of this strangled trinket.

The long-term implications are gloomy. If this is the best Apple can do post-Steve Jobs, then the glory days of Apple are over, and we must endure the end of the Golden Age of tech.

In a way, there's a certain rightness to the story. Man can achieve great things, but it's not a straight line. Here we are, living in a lull of innovation. At least it affords us time to muse upon brighter days, when we were wowed.

Perhaps Apple could bring out its own cider, the easier to drown its sorrows.

Even if I didn't mostly agree with this comment, I still would've upvoted it just for the poeticism.

 

[ghost187]

While your other points may or may not be true. Maybe in time, but as of now. This point is definitely not true.

Polar, Garmin, or even Tom Tom slay it in this department. Hell, Even the FitBit Surge may be better.

I own a Polar and the Garmin. Sold my Surge. Only tried the Tom Tom. Returned my Apple Watch (Thank God!).

IMO, the Apple watch is a needless, expensive gadget. It is great to show off by just wearing it though.

Great that you love yours. After all. Thats what ultimately matters.

I'm asking because I honestly don't know, what does the devices you listed do that is so much better than the Apple Watch? Especially with Watch OS 2, I am guessing the Apple Watch will do infinitely more. From what I know, the only hardware that the devices you listed have is a GPS, which Apple Watch borrows from your iPhone.

 

[dec.]

View attachment 572265

Moto 360 comes to mind, which imo is what I had pictured Apple watch would be like but even better.

I've seen it at Costco the other day and it really does look pretty cheap. The kind-of-360 that is... the Apple Watch doesn't look that great either but I can see why your post gets the upvotes from the usual crowd.

 

[ghost187]

A thousand dollars for a slightly less ugly watch? LOL, you're kidding me right? The most important aspect of it, the FACE, is disgusting. No band on earth will save this piece of garbage from being aesthetically pleasing. As Oblivious.Robot already posted, the Android smartwatches are WORLDS ahead in design (but even then it's still not enough to convince me to buy one as theyre ALL gimmicks).

Watches are almost exclusively fashion statements. The Apple Watch for that reason is a miserable JOKE.

I went to Best Buy and played with them in person for about half an hour. They don't look or function as advertised in person. Also, almost everyone that has seen my Apple Watch was wowed by it both in terms of design and functionality. Though there a those who doubt it, and even hate it without ever using it. But, that's nothing new for me, as I experienced the same thing when I had my iPhone back in 2007.

 

[MarkNY]

People spend $700 or whatever for their iPhones -- very few are going to spend another $400 for a remote control for that phone. At some point in the future, the iPhone will come with an Apple Watch (if not free, at a fraction of the current price), just as TVs come with remote controls. The Apple Watch as a remote control / health sensor is going to help Apple maintain the iPhone as THE phone to have, but is not going to be an independently successful product. An overwhelming majority of Apple's profits are generated by the iPhone, so if the Apple Watch helps prolong that cash cow, it's a staggering success.

 

[LizKat]

It's too bloody expensive! There are certainly other issues with it too but the one I liked (stainless with links) was $1400. That's more than the top model iPhone 6+.

Yeh. And it's about a grand less than what I paid for my Macintosh 512k, which at the time cost me 800 bucks more than the volkswagen I was driving then. My grandfather thought I was crazy.

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder." Say it until you get it.

 

[Denmac1]

It looks disgusting though. Not joking either. I've never seen such an UGLY watch sell for that much money. I would seriously pay Apple NOT to wear it. No way in hell would i put that rubbery piece of crap on me just to look like some loser wearing a watch that looks like it came out of a McDonald's Happy Meal.

I'd rather and proudly buy and wear a mechanical watch for the SAME PRICE, if not LESS!

Apparently, since you are new here, you have already formed your own negative opinion on many Apple products. Since you seem to be at odds with their products, I personally don't see any reason for you to be here.

So many of these thread with analyst 'expectations' are lame to say the least. Here is just one supplier that may have had lofty expectation, based on other Apple product sales, that they too, thought sales would rake in the fortune for them. When their 'analyst' predictions didn't pan out, they cry sour grapes. At least they had a new sales category that provided income that they didn't have before.

With that said, I bought an Watch and I am good with the decision I made based on the information I was provided. As far as I am concerned, it has met the expectations that Apple stated it would do.

Apple stated upfront that they would not post number of sales. They put in the 'Other' category, which simply means that they would not succumb to scrutiny on sales, as they would with TV and iPods.

I will state, that as a long time Apple customer, that I have not been pleased with some of the decisions that Cook & Co. have made. But it's a new Apple and despite those that say 'Steve wouldn't have done this', this is now old and tired. Unfortunately, Steve is gone and we can only hope that some of the DNA he left behind will not be diluted.

For those that are unhappy, you have the choice to vote with your wallet or go in a different direction that will find you your 'happy' place.

For some of you, it's not here.

 

[Makosuke]

Let's be honest with ourselves and admit the Apple Watch is a flop (so far).

Remind me the next time I see a tech company other than Apple sell over a billion dollars worth of a brand-new product in three months in an infant market that I should label that product a "flop" which needs to be redeemed in version 2.

Also, remind me to do so when the numbers on sales--possible, predicted, and actual--are almost completely hypothetical numbers from "analysts" who are notoriously and regularly wrong about these things.

And I say this as someone who neither owns an Apple Watch nor has any interest in getting one in the foreseeable future. I just know the difference between "jaw-dropping success" and "flop", particularly with extremely new products, and even moreso when both expectations and actual numbers were set by wall street analysts.

 

[robbyx]

Really wanted to want one, but still holding off. Most interested in the fitness part but without GPS and without a water proof guarantee, I'm still passing. It simply needs to do more standalone at that price.

I'm curious, what about Apple's fitness offering interests you over other products? I find the fitness aspects of the Watch to be the least compelling, especially compared to other, dedicated fitness products.

 

[MeatballTheBulldog]

I guess this company no longer wants to be an Apple supplier?

It seems that very few people had actually listened to the actual ASE conference call, which can be found here (relevant points on ~22:10 with slide 19, and ~29:30 on during Q&A). And probably fewer would understand the nuance in the call. Also, most seem to just use this headline as a way to express their opinion on Apple Watch. To be fair:
(1) At no point in that call was the name Apple explicitly mentioned, despite many analysts trying to pry information from the ASE management/presentation team.

(2) When the management talked about loading factor running below "break even", what it meant was ASE as a company put down $X amount of investment (implicitly for Apple's business), and produced $Y amount S1 for 15Q2. In the Q&A part, the COO mentioned that the (implied) Apple Watch revenue was constrained by output volume (by saying "going through tremendous learning process", ~31:20), and the "initial volume projection" (which is determined prior to Apple Watch launch) vs. investment needed was already putting pressure on its margin, meaning it reflected little on the Apple Watch demand, as opposed to most commenters think. (It's not clear if Mark Li of Bernstein was making that reference).

(3) From slide 19-20, and from the call, it can be extracted that ASE sold AAPL maybe just below $110M worth of S1 for Apple Watch, which some suggested to cost around $10-$15 (but, let's say $20), and rumor that Samsung is another supplier, it can surpass 2M S1 packages/month for Apple.

Bottom line is, the true info is that ASE made an investment on a new technology for Apple Watch, and the gross margin is smaller, that has little to do with the Apple Watch sales figure (which could be good/bad).

 

[2GoldFish]

What else were you expecting it to be? It does more than send notifications you know. A SWATCH can't do that, and their watches are $60. And a $20k Rolex can't do that either, but you're complaining "it's an overpriced notification band."

You sound angry. Have a break - have a Kit Kat

 

[robbyx]

Remind me the next time I see a tech company other than Apple sell over a billion dollars worth of a brand-new product in three months in an infant market that I should label that product a "flop" which needs to be redeemed in version 2.

And I say this as someone who neither owns an Apple Watch nor has any interest in getting one in the foreseeable future. I just know the difference between "jaw-dropping success" and "flop", particularly with extremely new products.

I wouldn't call it an infant market. Fledgling perhaps, but we've now seen several companies try to convince consumers that the "smart watch" is the next big thing...and the reality is, (most) consumers aren't interested. Apple has a built-in audience and they made a nice little accessory for their built-in audience, sold a few million units, padded the bottom line nicely, but they most definitely did not legitimize the product category. I mean, there are hundreds of millions of iPhones out there that can work with the Apple Watch. A few million units sold is a pretty small percentage of the potential market. And now sales are no doubt declining rapidly and will probably languish until the holidays when they get a little gift bump, but this is no iPhone, no iPod, no iPad.

I don't mind Apple experimenting with different products and I think the Watch is actually quite nice for what it is, but I don't think there will ever be a large audience for it and I hope this little fashion fling doesn't take focus away from other products. I think the rumored Apple TV update with App Store and gaming will out-sell the Watch quickly. And I think Apple could be doing a lot more in the HomeKit market, producing plugs and switches and thermostats, etc. instead of relying on (crappy) third party hardware, which will ultimately doom HomeKit. A well-executed home automation platform would be a goldmine. If Apple sold HomeKit plugs and dimmers, for example, I would have put them throughout my house at $50/each. I wasn't going to spend that on a janky "standard" like Insteon, but I would have trusted an end-to-end Apple platform.

 

[Mtmspa]

I love me Apple Watch. Well worth the $400 I paid. Anyone that says it just does notifications is just being foolish.

 

[Mtmspa]

A thousand dollars for a slightly less ugly watch? LOL, you're kidding me right? The most important aspect of it, the FACE, is disgusting. No band on earth will save this piece of garbage from being aesthetically pleasing. As Oblivious.Robot already posted, the Android smartwatches are WORLDS ahead in design (but even then it's still not enough to convince me to buy one as theyre ALL gimmicks).

Watches are almost exclusively fashion statements. The Apple Watch for that reason is a miserable JOKE.

cool story bro.

 

[bladerunner2000]

Apparently, since you are new here, you have already formed your own negative opinion on many Apple products. Since you seem to be at odds with their products, I personally don't see any reason for you to be here.

You're in no position to dictate who should or shouldn't be on the forum. And since you have no authority over such things, it satisfies me greatly.

 

[Denmac1]

You sound angry. Have a break - have a Kit Kat

No..have a Snickers....

 

[Jimmy Bubbles]

View attachment 572265

Moto 360 comes to mind, which imo is what I had pictured Apple watch would be like but even better.

What's with that ugly black area in the lower portion of the face of the moto?

 

[Denmac1]

You're in no position to dictate who should or shouldn't be on the forum. And since you have no authority over such things, it satisfies me greatly.

Excuse me. I certainly wasn't 'dictating', only stating a personal opinion as to why you are even here. You have, IMHO, an anger management issue. I know I have no authority, but neither do you.
Comprehension for some people seems to be an issue.