Apple to Close All Retail Stores Outside of China Until March 27th

[Ryth]

Here the thing closing schools universities and other things isn’t mitigating anything unless you lock yourself up and do what China did.

Instead of being at school kids/adults are at the mall shopping, hanging out at coffee shops, older ones partying etc.

Again this has been here for a while and a bunch already had it and recovered without even knowing. We’re going to stop testing soon because it’s pointless for everyone other then the risk groups.

All the mortality % are lower then reported due to all the unreported/recovered cases.

 

[sakagura]

Angela's social town square model fails in scenario like this. All those people who come into the store just to waste time and get free internet become potential spreaders and infectors. A completely new design is needed with more distance, less space for time wasters, more space for shelves. This virus isn't going away in two months. It will be in circulation for a year or two.

 

[cmaier]

Proactive ?
Tim just followed local regulation out of necessity, closed a shop after infection, then was criticised on his WWDC plans not containing the C-phrase - and only now acts as there is no other choice. With his particular dress-up donation (considered “generous“ in the streets)

Reading this hurt my head.
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All the mortality % are lower then reported due to all the unreported/recovered cases.

Fauci disagrees with you, at least if you are suggesting that the lethality rate is low. He says, even taking into account unreported cases, he expects the lethality rate to be at least 1%, or at least 10x higher than the seasonal flu.
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Clear message? lol Glorified influenza. The same people who might die of respiratory problems due to influenza are the same ones who might die from Corona.

The flu doesn‘t kill 18% of 80-year olds, 12% of 70-year olds, 5% of 60-year olds, and 1% of 50–year olds.

 

[scrapesleon]

Monday stocks going down

 

[nicho]

What you're doing is cherry-picking the reasons why the mortality rate might be higher than reported, while ignoring the reasons why it might be lower.

Of course the number of deaths will go up - but so will the number of infections - both reported and actual. (its actually 21 deaths 'out of' 1140 in the UK now...) - and its very well established that the deaths are more or less confined to people with existing conditions. If you've seen up-to-date figures on what proportion of the reported infected are in the "at risk" groups, do tell - last I looked many were reported to be "self isolating at home" and are likely not in the group at significant risk of death, who will be receiving hospital treatment. .

Couple of important quotes re. the UK situation:

"However, the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has said there are probably between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected in the UK at this time."​

"He also said that many people will no longer be tested if they are showing mild symptoms. Only those with the most serious symptoms will be given a test in hospital."​

Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers

Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

There's no wishful thinking here: the "known cases" are known to be far less than the actual number of infected and the testing program is known to be skewed towards the more serious cases. Both of those will amp up the naively-calculated mortality rate.

Any "mortality rate" based on "reported cases vs. deaths" is hopelessly unreliable - as is the infection rate if the only people being tested are disproportionately the ones who have developed serious symptoms because they are particularly susceptible.

As I said - note of this is a justification for complacency, but over-reaction has a body count, too. E.g. more people will die if the health service deteriorates because half of the doctors and nurses are staying home to look after the kids because the schools and childcare facilities have been closed... because the politicians are under pressure to do something.

You've missed the point a little there. Both will go up - but deaths will not slow down when infections do. The death rate will only increase as time goes on, not drop. Of course it is also ridiculous to proclaim a ⅓ death rate as I did, but the evidence suggests death rates will stabilise and then increase as deaths catch up with clinical diagnoses, rather than dropping dramatically. Indeed, 10 more deaths were confirmed after I posted taking the total to 21. They were accompanied by 342 new cases, not 1000 - see how it works? There's a time delay to it.

There's a less than 0.1% chance that this ends up with a 0.1% death rate.

 

[44267547]

Monday stocks going down

Ok? (Apples stock regardless of the store closings) The ’stocks’ have been on the steep decline well before this coming Monday. It’s nothing anyone here (Or for any shareholder for that matter) that wouldn’t expect any thing less given the continued circumstances given the financial instability of recent announcements.

 

[Internet Enzyme]

Dude. Seriously. Who cares about your iPad upgrade plans? The world is facing a one in a century calamity that may result in the number of dead by the end of 2020 that doubles the number of killed in WWII.

AAPL shareholders are facing AAPL going below $150 by the end of summer. Those who bet their retirement on AAPL will see their accounts more than halved.

Then come you with you iPad upgrade plans being derailed.
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I’m not sure about the wet markets, but a lot of people’s wet dreams of becoming rich on gambling with stocks will stop for a while.

aren’t i literally saying that apple is likely to delay these announcements for GOOD REASON? is it really that wrong to survey some of the effects on product announcements that this pandemic will have on apple, in an Apple forum? You know that people can concomitantly believe that something is bad whilst they point out some of the more trivial realities of the situation, right? Christ

 

[Baymowe335]

Or, no!

Did you learn math in school? Crunch your own numbers.

Those who compare Covid-19 to the flu are simply ignoramuses. It’s not about how many people have died from this virus. It’s about how many people will die from it if it’s not contained.

German Chancellor announces a few days ago that up to 70% of Germans will become infected. Germany is a much more disciplined and more affluent per capita country than the US. They also have universal healthcare. So, you can bet your ass on at least 70% of Americans getting this virus if it’s not contained.

in developing countries like India and most of Africa, the percentage of infected will be much higher.

So, take 3% of 6 billion people, and you get 180,000,000. In reality, the death rate will be much higher because half of the world doesn’t have adequate medical care.

By the way, China is not out of the woods with Coronavirus. Even if they have contained the epidemic, they would have to shut themselves off from the rest of the world. Otherwise, the virus will be re-imported to China, and it will start spreading like crazy again, and China would have to lock down half of the country and shut down their economy to contain it like they had to do in February. So, until we get the vaccine, we will be in this situation.

By the time the vaccine is available, the world will have 250,000,000 dead from this virus if we don’t start implementing draconian measures to contain this virus similar to what the Chinese have done.

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%," Fauci and his colleagues explained.

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]," the experts wrote.

Nice extrapolation of death rates, but that's not how this works. THE expert in the field published the above, Dr. Fauci.

You just took 3% (ridiculous mortality rate assumption if denominator does indeed rise to anything huge) and assumed nearly every person on the planet would be infected, equally ridiculous.

It's no surprise there is this much panic with the numbers people are doing in their heads.

80,000 Americans died from the flu (CDC) in 2018 and basically no one cared or talked about it.

 

[Ryth]

Fauci disagrees with you, at least if you are suggesting that the lethality rate is low. He says, even taking into account unreported cases, he expects the lethality rate to be at least 1%, or at least 10x higher than the seasonal flu.
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It will be below 1% and even if it’s 5x more then the flu it in no way required this type of response...the big issue is this started in probably one of the worst countries with terrible air quality, smokers, health care etc which blew the % out of whack and now we have Italy with the highest % of elderly in the EU by a wide margin so you have to start separating out things like this to get a wider perspective. We’re not China, we’re not Iran, we’re not Italy. Look at our % of deaths and even that gives you perspective.

 

[sakagura]

When one of you gets infected and goes on to infect everyone at home or several people at work then you'll forget about polling numbers and 'national' death rates based on partial data. You'll forget about your internet arguments. You'll forget about who is better at maths. You'll realize these things mean absolutely nothing at smaller scales when they affect individuals, whole families and whole businesses.

 

[Baymowe335]

It will be below 1% and even if it’s 5x more then the flu it in no way required this type of response...the big issue is this started in probably one of the worst countries with terrible air quality, smokers, health care etc which blew the % out of whack and now we have Italy with the highest % of elderly in the EU by a wide margin so you have to start separating out things like this to get a wider perspective. We’re not China, we’re not Iran, we’re not Italy. Look at our % of deaths and even that gives you perspective.

The person quoting Fauci is wrong. This is what he said:

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%," Fauci and his colleagues explained.

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]," the experts wrote.

 

[bodonnell202]

This is another over-reaction.

Apple instead should have pulled models off the floor and had 1 device per category for customers to view/try and wipe it down afterwards.

Also this is about more litigation than mitigation.

Folks this is a ‘panicdemic‘ and like many others have said on here is the same type of stuff that goes on every year and those same age groups, compromised etc have just as much risk from other things.

Ask yourself this though...why aren’t these cleaning protocols that most places are doing the norm. The same risks were here before CV19 for these groups.

And folks these experts are guessing also...this thing has been around longer than this and many flus/pneumonia’s in late Dec/Jan were possibly this that they will probably go back and recheck those tests to see if it was CV19 to get more accurate data.

People were coming in and out of Wuhan everyday before the ban and don’t believe for a second China was being honest.

in the end we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

I was in the camp that thought this was all overhyped until just a few days ago. The reality is what is going on in the world (cancellation of events, asking people to work from home etc.) are isolation tactics that will save lives. Roughly 80% of people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus will only develop minor to moderate symptoms and will recover on their own within about 2 weeks without any medical intervention. The remaining 20% will develop much more severe symptoms requiring hospitalization. A portion of that 20% will die, however what portion of that 20% dies will be dependent on the quality of medical care they receive. The point of the current social isolation tactics is to slow the spread of the virus so our health care systems are not completely overwhelmed with patients that they don’t have the facilities and staff to properly care for.

 

[Baymowe335]

Reading this hurt my head.
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Fauci disagrees with you, at least if you are suggesting that the lethality rate is low. He says, even taking into account unreported cases, he expects the lethality rate to be at least 1%, or at least 10x higher than the seasonal flu.
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The flu doesn‘t kill 18% of 80-year olds, 12% of 70-year olds, 5% of 60-year olds, and 1% of 50–year olds.

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%," Fauci and his colleagues explained.

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]," the experts wrote.

Source on the flu NOT killing at those rates?

The CDC confirmed in just 2018 (1 flu season), 80,000 Americans (not worldwide) died from the flu. Show me your demographics for the flu that year. No one has those numbers, so you're only assuming.

Also, your data is AGAIN, based on a small number of cases, so it CAN NOT be extrapolated if this does start infecting large numbers. Dr. Fauci has said this.

 

[nicho]

The person quoting Fauci is wrong. This is what he said:

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%," Fauci and his colleagues explained.

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]," the experts wrote.

Funny that he also said this more recently:

“It clearly is much more lethal, if you want to call it that, than the typical seasonal flu,” he said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci: Coronavirus cases in US are becoming ‘community spread' and could be more prevalent

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Sunday that “community spread” cases of the virus, which cannot be directly traced to anyone, are becoming more prevalent in the United States.

www.foxnews.com

edit: and more specifically,

Fauci agreed that the death rate could end up being as low as 1%. But even if that’s the case, he said, it would still be 10 times worse than the average death rate for the seasonal flu.

What is the fatality rate for the new coronavirus, and why does it keep changing?

The fatality rate for the new coronavirus keeps changing. For weeks it remained at around 2%, then it seemed to drop to 1% before climbing above 3%. What gives?

www.latimes.com

 

[Baymowe335]

Funny that he also said this more recently:

“It clearly is much more lethal, if you want to call it that, than the typical seasonal flu,” he said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci: Coronavirus cases in US are becoming ‘community spread' and could be more prevalent

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Sunday that “community spread” cases of the virus, which cannot be directly traced to anyone, are becoming more prevalent in the United States.

www.foxnews.com

That doesn't discount his earlier conclusion. Currently, death rates are higher. So, sure...right now on a percentage basis, it may be more lethal. It's CERTAINLY not more lethal on a total deaths measure and ultimately, death rates will decrease if it indeed becomes widespread.

Both can be true and I'm sure Fauci would tell you that. If we can keep the death rate where it is and the infections down, great. If we can't, death rates will decrease.

Again, 80,000 Americans died from the flu in ONE YEAR and NO ONE CARED. 40 people in America have died from Covid19.

You guys are getting caught up in the frenzy.

I'm not saying don't worry. I'm not saying take no precautions. I am saying that we have to avoid extrapolating too much and remain somewhat grounded in reality. Think about 80,000 Americans dying in a year from the flu. Then ask yourself, is this really so much worse? Maybe it could get worse, but is it worse yet? I Think the answer has to be no. We are doing what we can to stop it.

 

[Ryth]

I was in the camp that thought this was all overhyped until just a few days ago. The reality is what is going on in the world (cancellation of events, asking people to work from home etc.) are isolation tactics that will save lives. Roughly 80% of people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus will only develop minor to moderate symptoms and will recover on their own within about 2 weeks without any medical intervention. The remaining 20% will develop much more severe symptoms requiring hospitalization. A portion of that 20% will die, however what portion of that 20% dies will be dependent on the quality of medical care they receive. The point of the current social isolation tactics is to slow the spread of the virus so our health care systems are not completely overwhelmed with patients that they don’t have the facilities and staff to properly care for.

Many ‘experts’ have stated these isolation tactics actually don’t work the only ones that work are complete quarantines that make everybody stay in their houses and homes there is no difference with kids being out of school or university than they are now at home out and about running around at the mall shopping and other things like everybody else is doing that is off work.

This is an illusion of safety that is just not the reality. And as you panic more people with this more people start to go into the healthcare system over symptoms they should never go there for.

if you look at US deaths everyone one has an underlying condition and majorly 70%+ occurred at one place.

 

[developer13245]

This make sense, but not for the reason stated. Inventory has dwindled due to their communist factories being closed down. No sense in turning customers away sans shiny new iPhone 11. While MacRumors people will click buy and wait for an iThing to drop out of the sky, most others want to feel the faux “I Am Worthy / Worthwhile” emotion only available in person at an iStore. “Free personal setup” is not free, delivering this emotional rush is built into the cost of every iUnit. Nothing proves this more than the iPhone 11 inventory delivery times. Ordering ANY other iPhone model online yields delivery in about a day, which is normal. But ALL iPhone 11 models will take at least a week to show up. Almost no one goes to an iStore to buy cheap/previous models because if you don’t own the latest iPhone you’re stupid, a looser, or just plain poor. iStores feed an addiction far more powerful than Chinese fentanyl to an opioid junkie.

The CCP commissars have forced workers back to factories at gunpoint. Junkies need iStuff and Chinese fentanyl. If you think fights over toilet paper have been bad, wait until iStores reopen.

 

[cmaier]

It will be below 1% and even if it’s 5x more then the flu it in no way required this type of response...the big issue is this started in probably one of the worst countries with terrible air quality, smokers, health care etc which blew the % out of whack and now we have Italy with the highest % of elderly in the EU by a wide margin so you have to start separating out things like this to get a wider perspective. We’re not China, we’re not Iran, we’re not Italy. Look at our % of deaths and even that gives you perspective.

So I’m supposed to believe you instead of Anthony Fauci? This sort of thing is why we are in so much danger.

Anthony Fauci - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Who said:

Fauci said the administration was told on a recent call with WHO that it had elevated the mortality rate because there weren’t as many asymptomatic cases as it thought.

“What we’re hearing right now on a recent call from the WHO, this morning, is that there aren’t as many asymptomatic cases as we think — which made them elevate, I think, what their mortality is,” Fauci said.

In the U.S., the administration is still working to ascertain the full number of Americans infected by the disease. The administration has been hamstrung by a slow rollout of testing, making it difficult to track.

“I’m torn,” Fauci said. “If we get enough data to have a big [numerator] it’s gonna be bad news for us.”

“You know as well as anybody that the mortality for seasonal flu is .1%,” he added. “So even if it goes down to 1%, it’s still 10 times more fatal.”

 

[sirozha]

Greater potential reward, like the rapid growth of AAPL over the past decade, comes with greater risk. Not gonna shed tears over anyone who thought it was a good idea to “bet their retirement” on any single company.

Hell, I’m 24 and I know that’s stupid.

It’s not stupid. It’s extremely risky, but risks have their benefits. Apple made millions for me, but I knew when to get out because the stock price was getting ridiculously high. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. This was bound to happen. Coronavirus was just a pretext. Apple is facing much more serious issues than the Coronavirus. The lack of innovation, the $200 billion blown on the stock buybacks instead of being invested into the future of the company, the mostly unremarkable service offerings, the failed project Titan, the improved competition from premium android brands, etc. All of this will play a role in taking AAPL way down. The upside for Apple will come when the board ousts the bean counter and hires a visionary like Musk or Bezos.

 

[duaneu]

Everyone seems to be picking 2 weeks to close things. The local schools in my area, Disney World, Universal, Busch Gardens, and now all the Apple stores.... Is there a magic fix coming within the next 2 weeks?

The schools here in Washington are closed for at least the next 6 weeks.

 

[Ryth]

So I’m supposed to believe you instead of Anthony Fauci? This sort of thing is why we are in so much danger.

Well believe me or not...I have a direct family member who worked directly with Dr Fauci who was leading the measles and mumps outbreak in the 90s that hit the nation at a major University and their health Center ...they said their estimates are always on the high end and Fauci has to be more pessimistic because unfortunately if he’s optimistic and he’s wrong then there will be hell to pay. They always side on the worst case and rejoice when it’s almost never that.[/url]
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The schools here in Washington are closed for at least the next 6 weeks.

That’s also a northern state that’s winters last into April where most of us will be in warmer weather in 2 weeks which slows respiratory viruses drastically.

 

[cmaier]

http://Well believe me or not...I h...case and rejoice when it’s almost never that.

I’ll just go ahead and believe the guy instead of the guy who has an aunt who’s best friend with a plumber who worked with Fauci literally 30 years ago.

 

[nicho]

That doesn't discount his earlier conclusion. Currently, death rates are higher. So, sure...right now on a percentage basis, it may be more lethal. It's CERTAINLY not more lethal on a total deaths cases and ultimately, death rates will decrease if it indeed becomes widespread.

Both can be true and I'm sure Fauci would tell you that. If we can keep the death rate where it is and the infections down, great. If we can't, death rates will decrease.

See the link I edited in as you were replying. He has changed his tune a little:

Fauci agreed that the death rate could end up being as low as 1%. But even if that’s the case, he said, it would still be 10 times worse than the average death rate for the seasonal flu.

Your conclusion that death rates will decrease if it becomes widespread isn't borne out by any facts.

Some issues:

1) The more widespread it becomes, the more difficult it becomes for health services to cope. Wuhan, China and Lombardy, Italy are proof of this with far higher death rates than elsewhere. There's a critical mass of cases beyond which triaging happens by necessity and people who wouldn't die elsewhere, do, to give others with more chance of survival access to limited resources.

2) As the infection rate slows, death rates "catch up" and increase. You don't tend to develop COVID-19 and die on the spot. This has been the general pattern in China - both inside and outside of Wuhan. Slow and steady increases once there are enough cases to "stabilise" it and smooth out anomalies.

3) Flu season is spread over a 20ish week period. Of course there are going to be plenty more deaths across a whole season than there have been thus far, you're comparing very different time scales.

4) @Ryth contends that people are dying in Italy because they're old. Interestingly, flu & pneumonia figures there suggest a mortality rate each year of 9.14 per 100,000 (across the whole year) - which is around in line with the low-mid estimates of flu deaths from the CDC in the US when adjusted for population. It isn't exceptionally high despite any demographic differences, so it's weird to think that COVID-19 would be any different. Thats across the entire year. Italy has experienced the equivalent of 1.7 deaths per 100,000 from Coronavirus in seven days and it's progressively getting worse, not better. It's a big deal.

 

[jonblatho]

It’s not stupid. It’s extremely risky, but risks have their benefits. Apple made millions for me, but I knew when to get out because the stock price was getting ridiculously high. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. This was bound to happen. Coronavirus was just a pretext. Apple is facing much more serious issues than the Coronavirus. The lack of innovation, the $200 billion blown on the stock buybacks instead of being invested into the future of the company, the mostly unremarkable service offerings, the failed project Titan, the improved competition from premium android brands, etc. All of this will play a role in taking AAPL way down. The upside for Apple will come when the board ousts the bean counter and hires a visionary like Musk or Bezos.

Great visionaries often make poor CEOs and vice-versa. There are certainly exceptions, but it’s a pretty solid rule of thumb.

 

[smorrissey]

That’s huge

It's huuuuuge...