Yes. In 2 weeks we will all be under mandatory lockup with national guard policing the streets. I’m not joking.
With 80,000 flu deaths in 2018, that implies 80 million were infected, with a death rate of 0.1%. With a mortality rate of 1-2%, those 80,000 deaths would have been 800,000 to 1.6 million.
Winters don’t last into April in Washington State. It doesn’t even snow in Seattle most of winters. It’s not a northern state. It’s Pacific Northwest, which is moderate in both winter and summer with a lot of rain. Has nothing to do with a northern state, which has continental climate with severe winters and hot summers.
That is quite alarmist, and nothing but a guess. But if you’re right and the government intends to put us under lockdown, they better damn well have effective testing by then.
It's not that the flu is "not a big deal," but flu outbreaks only go so far because of herd immunity. That is not the case here. The potential number of infections for Covid-19 is basically everyone. That's not the case with the flu. So even if they had the same mortality rate, the potential downside risk of Covid-19 is vastly greater.
Just logic would tell me the death rate in 2018 for the flu was higher than 0.1% and/or the infections were lower than 80M.
That is one of the first fair points I’ve seen, but clearly the heard immunity doesn’t work *that* well. It’s at minimum overrated.
So far, consumers have been spending like there is no tomorrow. People spent thousands on groceries and all sorts of products to last them for a long time.Re: S Korea, they’re still at the beginning. They’ve got a lot of active cases. Only 786 cases have reached resolution, with 72 of them having died. Of course that doesn’t mean there’s a 9% fatality rate, because most of the active cases will recover. But their current death rate has already edged up to 0.9%.
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Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,775,239 Cases and 2,849,547 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...www.worldometers.info
And while it’s true that early on, Dr. Fauchi did mention a lower fatality rate, he has changed his thinking. He now talks about a death rate that may be as low as 1%. It doesn’t seem to be as high overall as the WHO estimate of 3.4% (increased from an earlier 2% estimate). China is at about 4.7%. Something in the range of 1% to 2% would be a decent guess it seems to me. (Don’t forget that by all accounts, it’s also more contagious than the flu.)
The outcome of this pandemic in the US will ultimately depend on how many people contract the virus. If 100 million get it, I think it’s likely that the number of deaths will be in the 1-2 million [corrected] range. Without treatment, a vaccine or any immunity, it’s very important to stop the spread of the virus as much as possible.
There’s nothing to be gained by soft pedaling this situation. Without any real testing having been conducted yet, it’s safer to overreact than it is to rely on the fact that it’s not that bad (yet).
What happens to the market happens to the market. Two or five years from now it likely won’t have mattered whether Dow 21,000 was the bottom or if it hits 15,000 in a few weeks or months. See it as a buying opportunity and continue to dollar cost average in.
This is a natural disaster and the markets will recover. But with both supply and demand shocks to producers and consumers, it would seem likely that we’re in for a global recession. Hopefully short lived.
Without consumers spending, the government needs to step in and increase demand. Best done by an increase in transfer payments, i.e. checks to citizens. Sick pay, unemployment benefits, medical expenses, childcare etc. That money gets spent quickly.
Maybe something as simple as $2,000 per taxpayer and $1,000 per child. Anyone making under maybe 250k. Just get it out there and quick to minimize the damage and keep this to maybe a one year blip.
Are you living in a dorm? Because if you are living with your family, you will be stuck with them whether one or more is sick or not.
Greater China, which includes Taiwan. How often you hear people use that kind of term to refer to these places. As CEO got to be mindful and sensitive to word they use. The whole thing is almost giving china credit for controlling the outbreak that they started and saying everywhere else is more dangerous. CDC still list China as level 3 and what is Apple to say it is safe or safer. The term is like saying US' s continent but the continent doesn't belong to US.
But it's not JUST herd immunity. It's also the fact that people who got the flu vaccine and still get the flu (my whole family this year!) tend to have much better outcomes than people who get the flu without a vaccination. The flu vaccine both keeps the infection rate a lot lower than it would be and keeps the mortality rate down among those who do get the flu after getting the vaccine. Obviously, neither of these benefits are in play with covid-19.
1000 times worst, jeez!!!! Yet in China its slowed to a trickle of new cases!!! Government enforced 2 week lock down kills the spead!!
