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Apple to Close All Retail Stores Outside of China Until March 27th
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We still don’t know mortality. Everyone is either guessing or extrapolating.
High level, I think even you’d agree there are likely thousands of unreported cases and far fewer unreported deaths, so the mortality rate is by definition high at the moment.
South Korea has a very low death rate, as one example. Maybe they just have better reporting, so the non lethal cases are in their denominator unlike many nations.
I really think it’s dangerous to start extrapolating. Let’s do what we can to stop spread and look at facts. There is someone in this thread saying 6 billion people will be infected and 3% of those will die.
China is over theirs for the most part...most Apple stores have reopened and the country is starting to come back online
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like a lot of math modelers are saying guessing anything this point is actually pointless...the %/# are so all over the place and you have to then again look at everything through different lenses for every country every state every area every death to really get a true answer.
Think that's a fairly narrow-minded view, one a critic of the company could take. How is anybody ever going to be able to prove "where" they got covid-19 at the exact moment they became infected to prove a case in a court of law?
Isn't it more probable that Apple closed the stores in order to do their part, as much as possible in the prevention of the spread of the disease?
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I came to realize that Tim only acted upon local legislation in China/Spain/Italy/Australia, a contamination in a US AppleStore, WWDC-related criticism, amongst worldwide uproar
≈ merely reactive leadership
(which also hurts my head...)
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Tests are free now, on paper. If you can get one. The administration promised a million tests in a week. They got 75k delivered.
Agreed that we'll have a better picture in 6 weeks. People/companies seem to finally be taking social distancing/etc seriously now.
That’s ridiculous. Apple has been way ahead of other companies in reacting to this.
1) what WWDC-related criticism? Apple NEVER announces WWDC before mid-march. This year, on their usual timetable, they announced it would be on-line only.
2) in Spain and China they closed stores before any government actor made them do so.
3) now world-wide they have closed stores, and nobody is making them do that. Microsoft, Samsung, etc. still have open stores.
4) there is no “uproar” demanding that Apple do anything.
You are just making things up.
Here in Silicon Valley, gatherings of more than 100 people are banned.
At an average store, if you count employees, you just need 50 or so customers to make it illegal to conduct business.
Considering business in stores has tanked in the past week, it is a good business decision to close the stores.
The few people that need a new iPad or computer to be able to work from home will be ordering online.
The problem is if you break your phone or it stops working, you’ll have a harder time to get it fixed. But you can always order a new one and hope that Tim Cook will announce an extension of the return policy like they do around the holidays.
Re: S Korea, they’re still at the beginning. They’ve got a lot of active cases. Only 786 cases have reached resolution, with 72 of them having died. Of course that doesn’t mean there’s a 9% fatality rate, because most of the active cases will recover. But their current death rate has already edged up to 0.9%.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,775,239 Cases and 2,849,547 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
And while it’s true that early on, Dr. Fauchi did mention a lower fatality rate, he has changed his thinking. He now talks about a death rate that may be as low as 1%. It doesn’t seem to be as high overall as the WHO estimate of 3.4% (increased from an earlier 2% estimate). China is at about 4.7%. Something in the range of 1% to 2% would be a decent guess it seems to me. (Don’t forget that by all accounts, it’s also more contagious than the flu.)
The outcome of this pandemic in the US will ultimately depend on how many people contract the virus. If 100 million get it, I think it’s likely that the number of deaths will be in the 1-2 million [corrected] range. Without treatment, a vaccine or any immunity, it’s very important to stop the spread of the virus as much as possible.
There’s nothing to be gained by soft pedaling this situation. Without any real testing having been conducted yet, it’s safer to overreact than it is to rely on the fact that it’s not that bad (yet).
What happens to the market happens to the market. Two or five years from now it likely won’t have mattered whether Dow 21,000 was the bottom or if it hits 15,000 in a few weeks or months. See it as a buying opportunity and continue to dollar cost average in.
This is a natural disaster and the markets will recover. But with both supply and demand shocks to producers and consumers, it would seem likely that we’re in for a global recession. Hopefully short lived.
Without consumers spending, the government needs to step in and increase demand. Best done by an increase in transfer payments, i.e. checks to citizens. Sick pay, unemployment benefits, medical expenses, childcare etc. That money gets spent quickly.
Maybe something as simple as $2,000 per taxpayer and $1,000 per child. Anyone making under maybe 250k. Just get it out there and quick to minimize the damage and keep this to maybe a one year blip.
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No, the actual death rate won't increase over time - its a rate and presumably roughly constant - at least for a particular population (it may well vary between countries with different age distributions and healthcare quality).
You're missing the point that we simply don't know the real total number of infections. The experts are guessing that it might be 5 to 10 times the number of reported/tested cases, because most people with mild symptoms simply haven't been tested. Any "death rate" figure you get based on the number of reported infections will likely be an over estimate, as the reports are skewed towards more serious cases. Going forward, in the UK at least, they've said that they're only going to test people who are ill and in hospital, so there won't be any validity to the deaths/cases figure.
As you say, there will be a time lag between deaths and infections - so if you did know the current number of infections the death rate you got might be an under-estimate. But deaths/reported infections could still be a huge over estimate.
The point is there is a factor of 10 between the worst and best estimates of the number of infections - any death rate calculated from that data is therefore hogwash. The only definite thing we know is that the number of reported/tested infections is less than the real number.
Ok, let's say that's true. We don't know enough about Covid-19 to know if it is true (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html), which is reason enough to treat it more seriously, but let's say you're right.
The WHO estimates that 290,000 - 650,000 people die of influenza annually.
Influenza (seasonal)
WHO fact sheet on influenza: includes key facts, definition, symptoms, transmission, seasonal epidemics, effects, prevention, WHO response.
So you're saying covid-19 is like a disease that kills a half million people a year... except that it's more contagious... and there's no vaccine... and therefore no herd immunity.
I don't think you're making the point that you think you're making.
Scary that some people honestly believe this kind of conspiracy theory.
Look, we are past containment. That's over and done with. Now what we're talking about is reducing the rate of spread so that hospitals aren't completely overwhelmed. In Italy, doctors are now choosing who to give respirators to, and who to (effectively) let die. That's what we're trying to avoid.
All of which is to say that you're wrong. Limiting interpersonal interactions and large group gatherings is not as effective as a total quarantine, but it is a lot better than doing nothing. It helps slow the rate of spread.
Further, your argument that kids are just "running around at the mall shopping" doesn't have any factual basis that I can see. Restaurant attendance is way down. Retail shopping is way down. People whose schools/jobs/etc are closed aren't just re-congregating in other places. If they did then that would be just as bad. But that isn't what's happening.
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I dont care how long it took by peoples’ measurements, and I am a big critic of Tim... Tim Apple is to be applauded big time for this.
it always bothered me it was putting retail employees directly in harm’s way, I’m not sure I can think of a more germ centric retailer than Apple (barring maybe Build-A-Bear or something with kids, but Apple attracts all walks of life AND the foot traffic is utterly insane!) even implementing wipe down procedures, there’s only so Much that could be done. and they are seriously taking it on the chin to prioritize safety Here.
Bravo, Apple! Wish to see more of this good faith in the future. This is the right step.
it always bothered me it was putting retail employees directly in harm’s way, I’m not sure I can think of a more germ centric retailer than Apple (barring maybe Build-A-Bear or something with kids, but Apple attracts all walks of life AND the foot traffic is utterly insane!) even implementing wipe down procedures, there’s only so Much that could be done. and they are seriously taking it on the chin to prioritize safety Here.
Bravo, Apple! Wish to see more of this good faith in the future. This is the right step.
Except overreaction has consequences too.
E.g. Hospitals can't treat sick people properly if half the staff are at home looking after their kids because the schools are closed.
Even short-term recessions have a body count if people can't get food, healthcare or afford heat their homes properly.
So it's fine as long as politicians and their advisers really are acting on real scientific advice - the danger is they start acting because they're trying to be seen to do something, have brow-beaten the scientists into making decisions not supported by the data (like: working out fatality rates without having a clue as to the total number of infections), or, worse, acting for political advantage (its the foreigners again....!).
I know all the numbers. I know markets recover. I know this is likely very temporary.Re: S Korea, they’re still at the beginning. They’ve got a lot of active cases. Only 786 cases have reached resolution, with 72 of them having died. Of course that doesn’t mean there’s a 9% fatality rate, because most of the active cases will recover. But their current death rate has already edged up to 0.9%.
View attachment 899153
Coronavirus Update (Live): 130,775,239 Cases and 2,849,547 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
And while it’s true that early on, Dr. Fauchi did mention a lower fatality rate, he has changed his thinking. He now talks about a death rate that may be as low as 1%. It doesn’t seem to be as high overall as the WHO estimate of 3.4% (increased from an earlier 2% estimate). China is at about 4.7%. Something in the range of 1% to 2% would be a decent guess it seems to me. (Don’t forget that by all accounts, it’s also more contagious than the flu.)
The outcome of this pandemic in the US will ultimately depend on how many people contract the virus. If 100 million get it, I think it’s likely that the number of deaths will be in the 100k-200k range. Without treatment, a vaccine or any immunity, it’s very important to stop the spread of the virus as much as possible.
There’s nothing to be gained by soft pedaling this situation. Without any real testing having been conducted yet, it’s safer to overreact than it is to rely on the fact that it’s not that bad (yet).
What happens to the market happens to the market. Two or five years from now it likely won’t have mattered whether Dow 21,000 was the bottom or if it hits 15,000 in a few weeks or months. See it as a buying opportunity and continue to dollar cost average in.
This is a natural disaster and the markets will recover. But with both supply and demand shocks to producers and consumers, it would seem likely that we’re in for a global recession. Hopefully short lived.
Without consumers spending, the government needs to step in and increase demand. Best done by an increase in transfer payments, i.e. checks to citizens. Sick pay, unemployment benefits, medical expenses, childcare etc. That money gets spent quickly.
Maybe something as simple as $2,000 per taxpayer and $1,000 per child. Anyone making under maybe 250k. Just get it out there and quick to minimize the damage and keep this to maybe a one year blip.
What I simply can't understand is how 80,000 Americans can die of influenza in single year and people keep pounding the table about flu vaccines, Tamiflu, and built up immunity which makes flu "not a big deal" in comparison to Covid19. Is it more contangious? Maybe, but the flu is evidently pretty damn contagious. The 80,000 deaths in the US is a fact and worldwide, that number is estimated to be 646,000 in a new study for a single year. Those are dead people from the flu.
In fact, the ONLY nugget of information that is even remotely supportive of Covid19 being worse is the fact it currently has a higher mortality rate, very early on. However, simple logic tells you the unreported cases are likely astronomical in comparison to the reported cases, but death rates are far more likely to be closer to the truth. This indicates the true mortality rate is quite a bit lower, which Fauci published early on and despite somewhat walking it back, still is extrapolating the unknown.
I fully realize the unknown is what's scary. I fully understand it. I support being careful, taking precautions, and even some extreme measures. I just question, when and where does it stop? We gave a new virus a fancy name and it cripples the world while other viruses are causing far more damage and no one cares.
The likely end game is this virus becomes another virus we very poorly combat with vaccines and treatments, but this kills the elderly and weakened at a disproportionate rate...just like the flu does currently (except a lot more people die from it than Covid19).
I don’t think you are seeing the bigger picture. It isn’t about ONLY deaths, it’s about keeping the hospital system from being absolutely overwhelmed. We only have 1 million hospital beds in the United States. That is simply not enough if everyone gets this all at the same time. Even if only say, 10% needed hospitalization, that would be tens of millions of people. We simply don’t have the capacity for that. That is why everything is closing. That is why the frenzy.
Plus only 1/10th of hospital beds are the sort that are needed for serious illnesses like this.
For those who disagreed, which part are you disagreeing to and what is your rationale. Did you vpn from China to disagree? I mean if you don't live there how you speak to it? I mean even if you do you can't really know it all. I'm in the US and I going to say I'm sure there are unreported cases. How you can say anywhere don't have unreported cases no one can even say or know that for sure. If you think without prove you are just naive. Not to mention I'm Chinese, but really is irrelevant. Im just talking from logic and facts, not from an enthnicity or bias. If you think china is safer than a other place china welcomes you and live it and preach it.
How could I not see that? You've gotten that hospital factoid from the millions of times it's been said on TV. I get it. That is an issue and I totally concede and agree with it.
What I don't agree with is that COVID19 is worse than influenza. You also just infected 300M people in America and said 10% would need hospitalization. I mean, I'm just not going to say, "Yeah, I agree with that." I'm having a problem with the extrapolation of infection and people calling this 20X deadlier than the flu.
What I'm preaching for is more calm, less media fear mongering, and a little perspective. The flu facts are relevant also.
And BTW, everything is NOT closing. If your solution is shutting down Disney, closing Apple stores, and cancelling sports, this is going to fail miserable and already has if it's anywhere near as bad as you're extrapolating.
I'm in a top 5 city and people are out and about, if nothing more than congregating at the gym, grocery stores, restaurants, fast food, Starbucks, and malls that are all still open. Think about that. That's nothing like what China did. We are already screwed if it's bad.
This is out...now we are going to have to deal with it. We'll see if I'm wrong and 300M Americans get it with a 2.7% death rate.
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