Yes, people will buy them for awhile, but once they discover these problems, they will grab an iPhone. Most of this is due to the fact that Android phones will vary greatly and Android is open source. What does open source mean, well, that an bunch of incompetent handset manufacturers can mess around with it. It saves them a lot of development, so it's a good deal for them, but not for the poor customers.[--snip--]
1. Apps are not tested, they are just placed in Android Market.[--snip--]
2. Apps can be returned.[--snip--]
3. Android phones will hardly ever be able to be updated to a new OS release.[--snip--]
4. Apps are easily pirated.[--snip--]
So, in the end the user will get buggy apps. Developers will have their hard work stolen. Users will be stuck with whatever OS release comes with their phone.
Interesting points, but I don't like your reasoning. If you run the numbers, Apple's 40 testers need to go through an unnatural amount of apps. I don't think they're a QA department. Google has automated the process, like they do so many things.
At the end of the day, ANY company that offers refunds on digital products (that actually work) is flirting with financial ruin (or a money-losing business). Physical stores DO NOT give refunds on opened software for a reason.
Here, I'll create my own list of "why Android will fail to overtake the iPhone as best SmartPhone OS/platform" items:
1. It deals with SD cards, requiring software to do a "double-install" for media rich apps (to get at all the space on the SD card, as the internal ROM for apps is very small). It's like comparing PS3 installs to the Xbox install. On the PS3, you wait for the download, THEN you have to perform a lengthy install process. On XBox, download/install is one process that is continuous.
2. Uninstalling apps is a bad joke, and impossible for consumers to really enjoy (very Windows-esque).
3. As a media player, Droid/Android sucks. Can you start/stop your media player music inside of any app? No. There is hardly any "experience" refinement past its excellent multitasking/notifications handling and with 2.0, great contact integration.
4. Support. There are no Apple Genius' to help you with your Android phone. Consumer devices are ALL about customer service. This is why Apple has created an easy way to backup your entire phone, so that if there's a problem, they simply hand you a new one, and you restore your phone at home.
5. Media management (music, podcasts, videos, tv shows, movies). On the Android... its positively geek-tastic... or geek-a-licious. Whichever you prefer. That translates to "not consumer-friendly". I really hand Apple a LOT of credit for trying to move a "standard" forward that it supports through its ecosystem. Close-captioning, chapters, and now iTunes LP and Extras? They're almost single-handedly solving problems that have gone unsolved in the digital media industry for too long (and navigating through a gazillion patent lawsuits while they're at it).
The Android OS "upgrade" thing is sort-of true, but mostly not. I think most Android users have been upgrading, although that seemed questionable earlier on with T-Mobile's G1. The "space requirements" become a HUGE issue though. Moreover, there is NO FINANCIAL INCENTIVE for carriers to assist or support older phones "upgrading" to each new Android version. Why should they? With Apple... hey, why not, its more value to its platform. Google would gain value... not the carriers. But its not UP to just Google.
Personally, Apple's "side-loading" model has it right. Handling updates, backups, media sync, activation, and management through the desktop media player is EXCELLENT. Android will NEVER (well, never say never I guess)... but Android would be hard pressed to duplicate these features.
Personally, I think Google should acquire the SongBird team, and push "SongBird" as its media player of choice, and use it to handle Android backups, update, and management issues.
I run a Mac these days. If the management of my phone can't even kick me back to my Palm Desktop 4.0 days, then I'm going to cry foul. I don't want to go backwards.
~ CB