Apple Vision Pro Could Take Four Generations to Reach 'Ideal Form'

[mozumder]

From my first week with it, the display needs about 2x-3x the pixel density to replace my monitor, as well as a wider field of vision. So, we're looking on the order of 160 million pixels instead of 23million pixels.

That means 7x computer power, which is gonna take roughly another 4 years, probably at the 1.5 micron process node.

The other thing is it needs to be lighter. So maybe another 2 years to reduce the assembly weight after hitting that ideal power.

Also the camera needs to be much better. At least 1/1" size sensors, so likely the same set of cameras as a iPhone 17 pro? And that's expensive.

Ultimately this is still going to be a $3.5k product for the foreseeable future.

 

[windowsblowsass]

Online isn’t representative of offline.

Yeah that’s where the sales numbers come in

Just like the Mac Apple Silicon.

wait for the M3 or M4 Chip.

They should have used sn M3 chip instead of an M2 for $3500 bucks.

What about the product so far has made you think a marginally faster processor would make it significantly better?

 

[citysnaps]

I could care less about headsets. Once this Apple Vision thing looks like glasses, then call me. I’ll wait.

View attachment 2348400

Glasses are not that far off. AVP will get the ball rolling and the public acquainted with AR/VR apps and the wide variety of uses.

 

[one more]

This thing will get two generations like the iPhone mini did.

I doubt it, as iPhone mini was running the same iOS as any other iPhone sold. Vision is in a totally different category, just in its baby phase. It has a potential, just needs to develop.

 

[CarAnalogy]

The iPad could have been a masterpiece if it ran Mac OS. It has 20 versions out there and still it's just a large iPhone. I use mine for flying and that's about it. Also run a pretty big YouTube review channel and not one time, ever, would I have even considered doing real music production or film editing on the iPad over my MacBook Pro. People say "well if you put macOS on iPad it'll run into Mac sales....so WHAT? IT GOES IN THE SAME POCKET, who cares, let it.
The iPad is, has been and always will be held back from any full potential as long as it runs a glorified iPhone OS. I don't even see a difference between just having a iPad Air vs a pro. Ah, yes, the camera ...which is still **** on both...

Yes but Vision OS proves that Apple doesn't care about that anymore. Neither macOS nor anything like it will ever run on new hardware from an existing company ever again.

What is far, FAR more important to Apple than usability, is control of the platform. iPadOS is locked down in a way the Mac can't be, and that is what Apple wants. To the point of limiting the usability of VisionOS just to keep it locked down.

The day of general purpose, programmable, open operating systems is dead. They have come as far as they are going. There's Linux and BSD and that family, and that's it.

It makes me really sad to say that but until there is a company with incredibly deep pockets that cares more about software freedom than money, it's over. Google was that, for a while. Then Larry and Sergei made more money than god and moved to Singapore and stopped caring about the affairs of mortal men. Apple too, for a while, in a way. And we know what happened there.

 

[User 6502]

"The perfect is the enemy of the good." Voltaire

Also the flop is the enemy of the good. This product is a car crash.

 

[windowsblowsass]

I am talking about the effing Instant Pot; not pressure cookers generically. (And must you call everything you disagree with "insane?" I guess it is some generational verbal diarrhea like, you know, everything is "awesome"; LMAO triggers very easliy for you - that's gotta hurt).

What generation do you think I’m in? Why would someone using different adjectives than you make you think they are triggered?

Adding a timer and preset programs to a pressure cooker is some of the most obviously practical improvements to a pressure cooker I can think of

 

[cardfan]

Kind of weird logic. He says the iPad didn’t really fit what they wanted it to be. Yet the avp is going to replace a flawed product? And of course the avp uses the same iPad OS that holds back the iPad supposedly.

If only the iPad offered macOS. They say the same about the avp. Or just a way to run macOS virtually alongside iPadOS without needing a Mac with you.

 

[DoogH]

“Ideal form” is glasses with no visible pixels, all day battery life.

That won’t be the case in 4 years.

Will it be a much better goggle? Sure.

 

[MagicTorch]

How many years does everyone think that ‘4 generations‘ will realistically equate to when it comes to AVP? I purchased the first and fourth generations of the following products:

iPad 1st gen (May 2010)
iPad 4 (November 2012)
Only 2.5 years to get to 4th gen. I got my moneys worth & usage out of the original iPad. iPad 4 was a definite improvement, but it was not until I purchased the iPad Pro 2018 model that I felt that the iPad had fully matured

Apple Watch Series 0 (April 2015)
Apple Watch Series 4 (September 2018)
Only 3.5 years to get to 4th gen
Looking back, Series 0 did almost feel like a prototype. But Series 4 was a massive improvement. Still using my Series 4 today (each year since 2018, I have considered upgrading, but just think ‘I can go another year)

I would love to see AVP get to ‘4th gen’ in a similar timescale to the iPad / Watch, but I’ve seen a few articles in which it has been mentioned that the next AVP will not launch until 2027. If it is going to take 12 years to get to 4th gen on AVP, part of me thinks I should throw caution to the wind & dive straight in when AVP launches in the UK (life is too short to be waiting & missing out)…but given the price tag on AVP, I would be willing to wait 3 to 4 years before buying, if I had confidence that AVP4 would materialise so quickly

 

[casjohnr]

I kept my original iPhone 2G until...believe it or not...the iPhone 5!

I did have my eyes set on upgrading when the 4 came out but got sucked into the whole 'Antennagate' hype at the time (which in hindsight was a completely stupid thing to get hung up on especially since I always use a case anyway!)

It obviously had limitations for a first generation product but what you have to remember is at the time it COMPLETELY blew pretty much every other 'smartphone' on the market at the time out of the water, Nokia were probably feeling pretty smug with their N95 only for Apple to come along out of nowhere shortly after!

 

[till]

The key thing here is that Apple is in it for the long haul, they have both the cash reserves and the dedication to see it through and produce an amazing mass-market product 5-10 years from now.

Everyone says that AR glasses are the long-term goal, but that's almost certainly a *really* long-term goal where the fundamental tech just doesn't exist at all, something completely new needs to be developed to make that a good experience. But I'm excited for what will be coming for the headset in the coming generations. Better screens, better fit, of course better software. The roadmap is clear.

 

[Timo_Existencia]

I'm curious...for those of you who say "The VisionPro has no use case" but who also say "Call me when this is in the form of glasses and costs $500"...what is the use case you think you'll use it for then? I'm struggling to understand what you'd want from a pair of glasses that you wear all day?

 

[AlexESP]

Yes but Vision OS proves that Apple doesn't care about that anymore. Neither macOS nor anything like it will ever run on new hardware from an existing company ever again.

What is far, FAR more important to Apple than usability, is control of the platform. iPadOS is locked down in a way the Mac can't be, and that is what Apple wants. To the point of limiting the usability of VisionOS just to keep it locked down.

The day of general purpose, programmable, open operating systems is dead. They have come as far as they are going. There's Linux and BSD and that family, and that's it.

It makes me really sad to say that but until there is a company with incredibly deep pockets that cares more about software freedom than money, it's over. Google was that, for a while. Then Larry and Sergei made more money than god and moved to Singapore and stopped caring about the affairs of mortal men. Apple too, for a while, in a way. And we know what happened there.

I can’t think about a better example than Vision Pro where a locked down OS is fundamental in order to provide great usability. People in general hate “general purpose, programmable, open operating systems”. Of course, some people might like them, but they’re a minority. So if you care about users, it’s a good idea to run a locked down OS. And subsequently, if you care about money, too (people will buy them more).

 

[klasma]

Yeah that’s where the sales numbers come in

Sales numbers will be interesting when production capacity catches up with demand. The first iPad sold 15 million units within a year (and the iPad 2 about double of that in the following year). The Apple Watch sales were in the same ballpark in their first year. The number of AVPs produced in the first year won’t be anything close to that, so it will be difficult to compare. What will be interesting to see is how soon the delivery times will go down again.

 

[Kevin2055]

Realizing the Apple Vision Pro headset's "ideal form" could take four successive generations of the device, some people in Apple's Vision Products Group believe. That's according to well-connected Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman.

Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman says the feeling amongst some of the team working on Apple's headset is that there is much work to do before the device can be considered refined enough for customers to use on a day-to-day basis.

While it's not clear what Apple's development team consider to be the device's "ideal form," it's easy enough to take cues from some early adopters, whose issues with the first-generation device have extended to both the hardware and the software.

Many Vision Pro users feel the headset itself is too heavy and unwieldy for extended use, making generational miniaturization a crucial touchstone for improvement. Other criticisms have included poor battery life, not enough dedicated apps, and a preponderance of bugs in visionOS.

If Apple's team can resolve those issues over four generations – similar to the progression of the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch – Gurman's take is that the Vision Pro could eventually replace the iPad.

Apple has had "mixed results" in attempting to position the iPad as more of a Mac replacement, Gurman says. Despite Apple's efforts to make it a multitasking device with features like Stage Manager, the iPad has struggled to become a true productivity workhorse like the Mac, and now sits in a limbo amongst Apple's other offerings. "The device lost its original purpose and has become a more confusing piece of Apple's product portfolio," writes Gurman.

As for Vision Pro, which starts at $3,500, "it's going to take some hardware upgrades, a slew of software updates, and far better support from app developers and content makers to actually make the headset the iPad replacement that it's capable of being," adds Gurman. "Until then, the Vision Pro is essentially a prototype — just one where you have to pay Apple for the privilege of testing it out."

Article Link: Apple Vision Pro Could Take Four Generations to Reach 'Ideal Form'

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[GrayFlannel]

Not every product is going to be right for you specifically. I have no use for a MacPro that doesn’t mean no one does.

That’s why I was speaking only for myself.

 

[Yoms]

With this year's much expected iPad lineup refresh, it's Apple's opportunity to show us that the iPad is not just a big iPhone.
They'd better deliver something meaningful to the software. Whether it's the ability to optionally run or boot macOS or by improving a lot iPadOS, it's up to them. But it has to be this year in order to go along this M3 iPad Pro refresh.

 

[k1121j]

I’m glad the iPad didn’t succeed in replacing the Mac. It would have only resulted in restrictions on what I can do. Apps, files etc. to this day I can’t even successfully browse the web effectively. Stupid mobile versions of sites that lack functionality and the request desktop site doesn’t always work.

 

[VisceralRealist]

I don't know, everyone keeps saying that once these are lightweight glasses, that will be the ultimate product and it will truly be time to toss our laptops, phones, and tablets in the trash, but I'm just like...will it though? There's this pervasive telic narrative in tech right now that it's all heading toward glasses, and the only problem with the Vision Pro is that it's too bulky and expensive. I'm just not sure that is the superior form of interaction with tech. I guess we have to wait several generations to find out...

 

[makitango]

People say "well if you put macOS on iPad it'll run into Mac sales....so WHAT? IT GOES IN THE SAME POCKET, who cares, let it.

The reason is that if you put kind of convenient or necessary elements in both platforms respectively so that they cannot replace one another, you can charge your customer twice.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

This tweet makes no sense to me. How many people are regularly taking long flights but can’t afford business class? And if they can’t afford business class Ben’s suggestion is spending $4K for VR googles to watch movies in economy?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756505217913467324

Your core assumption seems to start with only the “richer” can afford Vpro. And yet, there is a middling-specs MBpro for sale right now for exactly the same price as Vpro...

Vpro is only an iPhone PRO MAX more than an ASD with stand option that will be anchored to ONE place for life of device. Apple fans fall all over themselves to buy BOTH of those devices.

I can easily afford Vpro but don’t generally want to pay for Business Class, since “Steerage” will get me to the same destination just as quickly. I regularly take long flights. Vpro allows a person in cramped quarters like Coach to “wash away up to the rest of the plane.” Presumably with the right app... or right view, it could seem to Vpro owner that he/she has the entire plane to themselves.

The big problem with getting work done in Coach is having enough space to fully open the laptop in the usual way (well beyond 90 degrees open). Vpro allows a person to NOT need a “full open”- just enough to have access to keyboard and trackpad. Along those lines, I’m quite intrigued by this now-confirmation that a lid-less MB can work fine with Vpro…

Put the computer half on the tray table and put ANY size Mac monitor wherever one wants it. Maybe wrap a few Vpro/iPad apps around it to assist in the work to be done?

IMO: that combo seems towards ideal for my own purposes: steeply discounted (due to broken screen) M3/M4 MBpro or Air + Vpro BOTH in an under-seat bag as a new kind of laptop: AKA deep discounted, latest MB with a super-sized screen. Use on those long flights, then use a traditional desktop and big monitor when back at home/office (when a regular laptop stays in the bag anyway). Or if the lid-less Mac needs to cover both bases (travel and desktop), plug a traditional desktop monitor cable into a Thunderbolt port at home/office and now it's a Commodore 64 or Amiga 500-like main computer by Apple.

 

[Jim Lahey]

With this year's much expected iPad lineup refresh, it's Apple's opportunity to show us that the iPad is not just a big iPhone.
They'd better deliver something meaningful to the software. Whether it's the ability to optionally run or boot macOS or by improving a lot iPadOS, it's up to them. But it has to be this year in order to go along this M3 iPad Pro refresh.

I highly, highly doubt that macOS will ever see the light of day on iPad. I actually sincerely doubt that 2024 Apple even has the programming chops to successfully implement a touch interface into macOS without breaking it irrecoverably. I suspect the most we can expect from the upcoming iPad Pro is "It's the best disploooy we've ever built into iPad and we think you're gonna love it." Moving forward I think Apple will be locking as much software down as possible, not adding more freedom.

 

[Veeper]

Like 3D TV, I’m sure.

 

[Jim Lahey]

Like 3D TV, I’m sure.

Worth remembering that 3DTV failed in part because people didn't want to wear a pair of featherweight glasses. Expecting this diving bell cyborg helmet to succeed on a large commercial scale is like expecting 3DTV to succeed when you need to wear the TV on your face.