Apple Watch 2 Expected to Focus on Internal Upgrades Rather Than External Changes, Launch in Late 2016

[spiderman0616]

I think it's possible that Apple, as well as the rest of Silicon Valley, misjudged the smartwatch market. I personally think the Apple Watch is a fantastic device, but I have worn a watch most of my life. Getting people who grew up with smartphones to wear a watch is a unique challenge. This could be why it feels like companies like Samsung and LG have somewhat backed off of the wearable market. Even at cheaper prices than what Apple offers, it's hard to get people to want to wear watches again.

I think when you look at a product like a Fitbit, people see that as a throwaway device. I know they're not necessarily "cheap", but I know several people who have had Fitbit after Fitbit either fall apart or just stop functioning completely, and they just keep buying them again. The very simple things Fitbits do well vs. the cost has made them indispensable enough where people don't mind replacing them often.

So I just don't know how to properly digest this news. It could be that an iPad 2 style refresh of the Apple Watch would be the thing it needs to kick sales into high gear, but it could also be that people just don't want to wear things on their wrists unless they're cheap, rubber, disposable step counters.

 

[yaxomoxay]

The online equivalent to taking your ball and going home because the other kids are better on the court.
Next.

No, it's the equivalent of "You can't fix stupid". You keep bringing stuff that has nothing to do with what I am saying, or you keep saying that success is Revenue > Expenses.
You don't understand that if I make a product, work 40hrs a week, and spend $10 to make it and sell it for $11 the product is NOT successful even if Revenue is > Expenses.

 

[Datalinks]

it's a watch..make it waterproof for starters

 

[Keirasplace]

Kind of a microcosm of the iPad. I think many of the issues the iPad faces with declining sales, can also be attributed with the apple to some extent. I think the apple watch 2 will be a hard sell for current apple watch owners, so that means Apple will need to try to convince those who held off already that the AW2 is a worthy product

Really, an article on this very site, just a few days ago said 2/3 that people that had the AW1, would buy the new one sight unseen and now you say this based on this article. Why pick this one hey as your basis for an opinion? Confirmation bias?

If 2/3 buy the new one and they get new people coming in because its a much better product (generation 2), then their sales go up; simple isn't it.
[doublepost=1460393096][/doublepost]

it's a watch..make it waterproof for starters

Good grief. google a bit, it's waterproof for 90% of people's water usage.

 

[MaulRx]

No, it's the equivalent of "You can't fix stupid". You keep bringing stuff that has nothing to do with what I am saying, or you keep saying that success is Revenue > Expenses.
You don't understand that if I make a product, work 40hrs a week, and spend $10 to make it and sell it for $11 the product is NOT successful even if Revenue is > Expenses.

I understand exactly what you are saying, I don't think you do.

 

[Serban]

Apple watch 2 if it will be a redesign and a beautiful one, nobody will give a fck about other things
i really love my new rolex (i used to hate rolex because they only had many sportier looks) but this is too classy and a design that can last decades...so from this idea Apple watch needs an endless design because first thing IT IS a watch, an object you wear

 

[xDKP]

I don't know if it is because I had the original pebble and that is all it did, but that is truly all I want out of a smart watch. There is nothing efficient or easier about using an app on your wrist....ZERO. It works because I can leave my phone on complete silent (no vibrate either) and still be alerted to what I deem important. Nothing more and nothing less.

Yet there is some. Killer running apps. Apps when biking, snowboarding (start/stop tracking with iPhone securely in inner pocket) and stuff where it makes sense with short interactions where your hands might not be able to grab a phone and use it

 

[yaxomoxay]

I understand exactly what you are saying

Doesn't look like it

 

[MaulRx]

Doesn't look like it

I can't dumb it down any more for you. Looking through your past posts on other topics it seems you relish in the role of the contrarian.

 

[jujufreeze]

I'm sorry but Apple is getting dull. I find myself not especially interested about any of their new product announcements anymore. The Tesla 3 announcement made me excited in a way Job's Apple used to. We'll one day! get the iWatch 5 with 10% increased CPU power, 60% thinner and a novel circular design. The Apple Tv 3 that is what the original should have been. the iphone 10 with a scratch resistant amoled display, 6 cameras, 90% thinner. The new macbook thinner than a sheet of paper with a dated gpu. The ipad pro + with a 4k display, 99% thinner

 

[apolloa]

If KGI securities are saying this then it will most likely be true, they usually get it right and it sounds more Apple to just release a refresh every two years. If Apple were only interested in mass market penetration then they would need to half the cost of the watches.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I can't dumb it down any more for you. Looking through your past posts on other topics it seems you relish in the role of the contrarian.

Not sure if there is a unit of measurement for contrarians, if so I hope to be the winner; should I always agree with everyone else, or can I politely voice my opinion?

 

[MaulRx]

Not sure if there is a unit of measurement for contrarians, is so I hope to be the winner; should I always agree with everyone else, or can I politely voice my opinion?

Opinions are one thing. Facts are another. If it's your opinion that making money on an investment in any form is a bad thing then the fact is you have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[yaxomoxay]

If it's your opinion that making money on an investment in any form is a bad thing then the fact is you have no idea what you are talking about.

No, it's economics 101, a class you've mentioned a few posts ago. And I have never said that it's in "any form". I have said the opposite; you have to take all the variables into account before saying that a product is a success. Revenue > Expenses is not the only metrics. I also said that I don't believe that the Watch itself is an issue for Apple, but it might be for shareholders.

 

[MacBergin]

Unless you want to use it as a glorified fitbit, I'm still struggling to see the real use of an Apple Watch

Clearly you don't have one.

 

[dogslobber]

Kind of a microcosm of the iPad. I think many of the issues the iPad faces with declining sales, can also be attributed with the apple to some extent. I think the apple watch 2 will be a hard sell for current apple watch owners, so that means Apple will need to try to convince those who held off already that the AW2 is a worthy product

I've previously offered 3 reasons I think the watch is a no go for revision 1. I think the non-buyers have their own reasons and that's information Apple traditionally knows how to harvest. Unfortunately, I think Apple has lost its way with a lot of recent products. They're skating to where the puck already is instead of to where it's going.

Steve is irreplaceable.

 

[mattopotamus]

Yet there is some. Killer running apps. Apps when biking, snowboarding (start/stop tracking with iPhone securely in inner pocket) and stuff where it makes sense with short interactions where your hands might not be able to grab a phone and use it

And those seem to be the few apps that work pretty good on the watch. I just do not understand viewing FB or Instagram news feeds on the watch, looking at photos, using amazon.

A lot of people were returning the watch early on b.c they thought it would be a phone replacement. I guess they were expecting an iPhone on their wrist.

 

[MacBergin]

Niche market not the next big thing Tim.

If we always just did the next big thing then we would lose out on a lot of great things. Please Apple keep building the niche products AND the next big things.

 

[MaulRx]

No, it's economics 101, a class you've mentioned a few posts ago. And I have never said that it's in "any form". I have said the opposite; you have to take all the variables into account before saying that a product is a success. Revenue > Expenses is not the only metrics. I also said that I don't believe that the Watch itself is an issue for Apple, but it might be for shareholders.

How can a product that makes money be an issue for shareholders? You can't begin to understand how this works if you aren't willing to stipulate that the rules that may apply for a smaller or less successful tech company don't necessarily apply to Apple. They are in a unique position, a position they got to by being the best.

If you have a product that brings in more money then it costs to make and has future sales projections then that is a success. It may not be the product you want it to be in its current form, and I know that bashing what is popular for a reason makes the quiet kid stand out, but facts are facts.

 

[yaxomoxay]

How can a product that makes money be an issue for shareholders?

Oh Lord, here we go again. A shareholder (especially the sharks) will look into what is MISSING, the negative part of the equation. You can make money but miss a huge opportunity, and fail at that in the long run.
I already explained the possible missing opportunity on R&D for the iPhone. Let me add another layer which hopefully you will understand.
Most of us have a fixed income, and most of us will spend a fixed amount (ceiling) on technology. Agreed?
Ok. iPhone 6S starts at $749. Apple Watch starts at $299. Total = $1048. Suppose that my tech budget is $1,500.
The Apple Watch is 40% of an iPhone. With that fixed income if I buy the 6S + AW, I might decide to skip one or two generations of iPhone which has a higher margin, a higher price, and better market penetration than the AW, because to buy iPhone+AW+the next iteration of iPhone would dramatically increase the cost to the customer. The AW might cause a loss of sale on the second iPhone because it would put me overbudget (2 iPhones: $1498; 1 iPhone+ 1AW = $1048; 2iPhone+1 AW $1797). Potentially the AW might cause a delay in earning the extra $450 from the customer. As a shareholder this is a concern, and that's probably why the AW balance sheet numbers are hidden within other services.

If you have a product that brings in more money then it costs to make and has future salsa projections then that is a success.

And this is what you don't get.

 

[JeffyTheQuik]

If you want to see where all the Watches are, go to Disneyland.

I saw at least 150 per day while there, and that was a casual observation.

(and yes, I know there were probably 30-50,000 people there, and that's a small percentage, but it's a percentage of the people that I noticed, not the entire population. It's what is called, in statistics, "cool story, bro")

 

[Mainsail]

I agree with others that the main benefit of a smartwatch is notifications and reminders with quick replies to messages. This is particularly nice when you are on wifi and don't want to tote your big phone around the house or maybe around the gym.

Some of the health apps are nice. It is nice to glance at your watch and pickup the stock market prices, weather or sports scores. But, for the most part, the UI is not conducive to complex navigation and menus, so Apps are going to be very limited.

For hundreds of years, watches only did one thing....tell time. Now, with a smartwatch, they can tell time, receive notifications, reply quickly to messages, get health feedback/info, and provide glances at frequently used information (like weather, stocks, etc).

For my next watch, I am not really looking for more functionality....just better speed and performance (including longer battery life) over time. As a result, I probably won't upgrade right away. My Sports Edition cost $300 at BB during the holidays (it was a gift)....if I keep it for 3 years....that's $100 per year or $~8 per month for the convenience. This is about the same cost as a scone and large latte at the neighborhood coffee shop. I am ok with that.

 

[Vanilla35]

And Cho knows this how exactly? Didn't we get a rumor just the other day saying the watch would be 40% thinner? Now this rumor says no changes outside of internals? I swear people make crap up and throw it against the wall to see what sticks. And they know that rumor sites like this will print anything they write.

What do you mean? This rumor says there will be a minor design change, which is exactly what the other rumor said. 40% thinner, but the same overall design. The refresh (different design) will come with the next iteration (2017). Thinner doesn't really mean there is a major design change.

 

[Mr. Donahue]

I don't believe the Apple Watch will ever have a FaceTime camera. The watch isn't meant to be held in an unnatural position for the length of a FaceTime conversation. It works for phone calls because you don't have to hold it up to your face and can walk around with your arm down during a phone call. A FaceTime camera on the watch would look right up your nose and the screen is too tiny for it to be worth it. Not happening.

And a tiny tablet we call smart phones are? When I FaceTime people still see up my nose! I don't hold it perfectly in front of my face wherever I may be.

 

[MaulRx]

If you want to see where all the Watches are, go to Disneyland.

I saw at least 150 per day while there, and that was a casual observation.

(and yes, I know there were probably 30-50,000 people there, and that's a small percentage, but it's a percentage of the people that I noticed, not the entire population. It's what is called, in statistics, "cool story, bro")

It's funny you mention that because we did notice a lot of them on our last trip.