I’d wager just a screen tech change for the 11” but otherwise remain the same. I just don’t see a big change on the horizon so soon with the delays they’ve had previously. Like pre-M1 it went from A12x to A12z rather than a full replacement model.
Apple sells ~45M iPads every year. It's hard to imagine that even a third of them are Pro models.
Meanwhile Apple sold 6.5M laptops in Q3 2021, suggesting annual sales of ~25M?
I bring all this up because iPad Pro volumes seemed to only justify one A#X chip every two years. But add in the Mac units and we're talking tripling, quadrupling the volumes.
So while in the past I have expected that perhaps Apple would only update the M# series every two years, the numbers suggest that they might see it as worthwhile updating every year, at least for the next year or two?
Which in turn means, IMHO, that rumors of an M2 (based on the A15 Avalanche+Blizzard) cores strike me as not totally absurd. One can wonder why such devices did not ship earlier, say in November, but many options are possible.
Perhaps the Covid Omicron wave upset plans?
Perhaps they want to switch from a two year cadence for A#Z cores to an 18 month cadence for M# cores?
Perhaps the M2 was specifically delayed because after the M1 shipped and could be tested in bulk, Apple wanted six months to figure out what worked well, what not quite as well, so that they could tweak the M2 to be a much better "Mac-level" SoC? (In other words the plan is M#s every year, but this M2 took a very specific six month delay so that those insights could be retrofitted to the A15 design?)