Apple's Stock Sets New All-Time High

[BuddyTronic]

Interestingly, here on MR there aren't many sophisticated investors; AAPL is bagged because many contributors don't understand the financial side of things. On another site I read (Seeking Alpha), AAPL is bagged because people don't understand the passion of Apple users. Having been a user since the Mac Plus, then initially a minor shareholder since the 2nd generation iPod, and slowly adding to it over the years, I now have a decent holding in AAPL. Lots of ups, lots of downs, but the overall trajectory over this time only goes one way. My kids will go to University thanks to AAPL.

Seeking alpha is really bad. I used to enjoy that place, but then I started seeing so much baloney there that I became suspicious.

Maybe it’s millennials trying to cut their teeth writing articles, but they are not thinking. Maybe it’s a misinformation conspiracy ( like the taxi drivers making $5.00 to negatively post here! ) or maybe people really are that "misguided'. (Most likely theory actually). I still glance articles from there, but I dismiss them and feel sorry for the distortion they are inflicting on their readers.

 

[tallscot]

I own zero Apple stock so I don't care. I'm a consumer. I buy their products. Specifically, I'm a multimedia designer and video editor. I own a 2013 Mac Pro. I also own an Apple TV. And my family has iPhone 7s.

On the Mac front, I'm done with Macs. After over 20 years of buying Macs, I'm done. My 16-year old son worked at Sonic over the summer and saved up money to "build a gaming PC." He really wanted a Windows PC after years of me saying we are a Mac house and I would never buy OR SUPPORT a Windows PC in my house. He saved up $1,200, working outside in the summer. We ordered the components from Amazon - Ryzen processor, nVidia GTX 2060 GPU, Samsung 2 TB SSD, 16 gigs RAM, motherboard, power supply, case. We watched YouTube videos and read the motherboard manuals on how to build it (connecting the front panel connectors of the case to the mobo was the most difficult part, but easy now that I've done it).

I installed Windows 10 from USB thumb I bought from Amazon. It was a 2-year old Windows 10 so it had to update for 2 hours to get current. But it worked fine.

My experience with Windows in the 90s was not the same as Windows 10 in 2019. No DLL errors. No REGISTRY FIXER.

Is it as good as OS X? No. But the question is this - is OS X so good it's worth $6K for the new low-end Mac Pro? Not in my opinion. No. Windows 10 is good enough with a Quick View utility (Seer) and editing the Registry to have RECENT FOLDERS in Quick Access.

So my last Mac was the MacBook Pro I bought my wife in 2015(ish). It was the model right before the USB C TOUCHBAR model. My wife wanted USB and an SD CARD SLOT so we went out and got the older Macbook Pro model before they were gone. Apple is idiotic with their hardware choices, IMHO.

I do like Apple TV. I hate the remote.

I do like the iPhone 7 we all have. But I don't like the notch in the screen of the latest iPhones. It's annoying. I also want a tactile home button. I already think there are too many gestures on the iPhone screen. But, I haven't used an iPhone X or 11 so I have no real-world experience without the home button.

Honestly, I think my hardware purchases in the future will be:
1. Custom multimedia/video editing Windows PC for me with CUDA and DaVinci Resolve
2. Playstation 5
3. OLED 4K TV and Apple TV 4K (we are still 1080P)
4. Open minded on the phone...

 

[LizKat]

It's all Tim Cooks fault and something about keyboards.

LOL it's the notch, man... AAPL stock simply soared behind retention of El Nacho: people rushed out to get three copies of latest iPhone before a notch disappears completely and there's nothing left to carp about except [fishing around for the list I saw someplace online]....

 

[BuddyTronic]

As Apple becomes more focused on services, their multiple should grow. Apple is one of the most misunderstood stocks and companies in the world, despite being followed so closely. Analysts were WAY too focused on unit sales and missed what was right in front of them.

They also ignored a prodigious buyback that is so powerful, people will again be asking how they missed it when there are only 3B shares left. Apple doesn't even have to grow profit to keep grinding higher.

I never tell people what to do with their money for one reason. They don't listen.

Everyone thinks they are smart and good investors, just like everyone thinks they are an above average driver.

The buyback really is something interesting. I think I do have to be excused for not having a 100% for sure "I understand it" opinion of the Apple share buybacks. It think it is really unprecedented for a company to do this over many years like this, and with such billions of dollars!. But yes for sure the buyback makes sense for Apple, and I'm leaning towards thinking that any time you see a company buying back their shares, it is a positive indicator for the investor to also acquire shares. Just a thought - not absolutely sure - I'm still thinking about whether that is a truth.

Shares Buyback vs Dividend Payout is an interesting thing to look at. Buyback defers capital gains and other taxes (for the shareholders) I guess. But the dividend that Apple could have paid out would serve to stabilize the stock maybe? I mean - it is probably also unprecedented for the largest company in the world to have such volatility. It really makes the (subjective) "implied volatility" seem like nonsense on the AAPL options contract charts. By the seat of my pants, I can see options premiums that are seemingly inappropriately priced - and that's a good thing! and the mathematics used to calculate the options premiums are too complicated for me to fully grasp, which makes me think nobody has questioned the methodology of Black-Scholes for a long time and that the subjective part of the Black-Scholes might be where there is a need for a 21st century redo.

 

[Allyance]

As a share holder I am very happy. Had the stock for nearly six years, not a day trader.

 

[Abazigal]

The answer is several things. Firstly, how dependent we all are on smartphones and other mobile tech nowadays. Secondly, the only alternative being Android and Google-heavy services; and traditionally duopolies don’t provide enough competition, even triopolies and quadopolies (if they are words) can collude to maximise their power and stifle competition. Thirdly, it‘s very difficult and expensive to change platforms because of the investment we’ve put into software and learning the operating systems over years now, which explains why retention rates are so high for both iOS and Android. Apple and other companies exploit this.

Apple could be doing much better for the consumer, and as I said in a recent post, what’s good for Apple isn’t necessarily what’s best for the consumer. Stock price reflects stock owner and executive interests almost entirely. As a user of Apple products I don’t particularly care what the stock price is or how profitable Apple is. Apple has done many many things that are user-hostile to promote their business, from iPhone throttling to almost entirely un-upgradable products, to opposition to right-to-repair, to telling you when you’re allowed to change the battery etc., etc., etc.

I wish MacRumors and others would stop conflating these two separate and sometimes (often) competing interests as being one and the same. They are not. This is largely an Apple user website and forum and it should serve those interests. For investor and stock/profit discussion why not put that in a separate section, sub-forum or sub-site?

Apple’s corporate and investor interest is to make as much money as possible. The user interest is to get the best products and services for the best price. There is some overlap but not much. Apple can do well on one and not for other: is it really that hard to understand? I’d like to see Apple aiming more for that overlap in the Ven diagram than the one-sided profiteering.

Obviously they’re still making good products, but they can do a lot better. Instead of a drop in iPhone market share and revenue they should be aiming to grow both. Time will tell if the 11 is doing that.

If anything, doing so seems like it would just artificially limit the scope of any discussion and lead to circle jerks where haters just take turns criticising the notch and not be able to meaningfully grow the conversation from there. The end result would be extremely shallow and superficial discussions because people are then unable to move beyond “Apple is doomed” cries.

And the reason why I feel this keeps happening is simply because the haters don’t understand Apple. Their view of the world is basically based on what they see around them most - cost leadership, divisional organizational structure, growth through M&A's, engineering-led. For them, Apple, being a design-led company, is a puzzle as it is different in every single way and brings them discomfort.

Yet instead of trying to understand what Apple does and why it does what it does, they have instead chosen to deny that it is happening. To bury their head in the sand like the proverbial ostrich.

People here who follow my arguments will know that I have been a long-time subscriber of Aboveavalon, and I continue to maintain that my annual $200 subscription has been well worth every cent in helping me understand just what makes Apple tick.

You all want to open your eyes like mine finally are, you know where to start looking. What impresses me the most is that Apple is a now $1.1T company who is still just in the beginning phases of entering (and potentially disrupting) other industries. Seems like it can go up from here over time.

What are the odds Apple hits 2 trillion market cap in this lifetime? One thing is for sure - You all continue to underrate Apple to your own detriment.

 

[Squeak825]

Steve Jobs cared about the Apple customer. Tim Cook cares about the Apple shareholder. Steve was a minor shareholder, Tim is a major one, what a surprise. I prefer the Apple with a simmering stock price that made great products not the Apple with a boiling stock price that makes questionable products.

Man, that is some major revisionist history. Jobs was granted so much stock at one point that he owned half a percent of the entire company, that would have been worth about $5B. By comparison Cooks share in Apple is worth a fraction of that.

 

[I7guy]

since when has Apple an iPhone production?
You statement shows your lack of knowledge

A alternative interpretation regarding the sentence structure of the op quoted...“Apple had to ramp up it’s production”, shows that Apple makes the call about the number of units produced, not that Apple itself owns the factories. Please stop the hyperbole (and the insults)

 

[Baymowe335]

The buyback really is something interesting. I think I do have to be excused for not having a 100% for sure "I understand it" opinion of the Apple share buybacks. It think it is really unprecedented for a company to do this over many years like this, and with such billions of dollars!. But yes for sure the buyback makes sense for Apple, and I'm leaning towards thinking that any time you see a company buying back their shares, it is a positive indicator for the investor to also acquire shares. Just a thought - not absolutely sure - I'm still thinking about whether that is a truth.

Shares Buyback vs Dividend Payout is an interesting thing to look at. Buyback defers capital gains and other taxes (for the shareholders) I guess. But the dividend that Apple could have paid out would serve to stabilize the stock maybe? I mean - it is probably also unprecedented for the largest company in the world to have such volatility. It really makes the (subjective) "implied volatility" seem like nonsense on the AAPL options contract charts. By the seat of my pants, I can see options premiums that are seemingly inappropriately priced - and that's a good thing! and the mathematics used to calculate the options premiums are too complicated for me to fully grasp, which makes me think nobody has questioned the methodology of Black-Scholes for a long time and that the subjective part of the Black-Scholes might be where there is a need for a 21st century redo.

I prefer buybacks to dividends and it’s not even close. Warren Buffett agrees which is why Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend. What other confirmation do we need?

Dividends aren’t tax efficient. Buybacks permanently reduce the share count causing eps to move higher without earnings growth, quarter after quarter, year after year.

I love that my ownership in the company grows without buying more shares.

Small buybacks are one thing, but Apple’s is just so massive.

As share count decreases, the same amount in buyback becomes a bigger percentage. Apple has already repurchased almost 1.5B shares of the ~6B originally outstanding, or over 25%. If they buyback another 1.5B shares, it will be more like 33% Of the company. Huge impact.

 

[tallscot]

I prefer buybacks to dividends and it’s not even close. Warren Buffett agrees which is why Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend. What other confirmation do we need?

Dividends aren’t tax efficient. Buybacks permanently reduce the share count causing eps to move higher without earnings growth, quarter after quarter, year after year.

I love that my ownership in the company grows without buying more shares.

Small buybacks are one thing, but Apple’s is just so massive.

As share count decreases, the same amount in buyback becomes a bigger percentage. Apple has already repurchased almost 1.5B shares of the ~6B originally outstanding, or over 25%. If they buyback another 1.5B shares, it will be more like 33% Of the company. Huge impact.

Right. A dude who writes over 5,000 posts on MacRumors is a Wolf of Wall Street.

 

[Baymowe335]

Right. A dude who writes over 5,000 posts on MacRumors is a Wolf of Wall Street.

Nothing about what I said is any high level information or the mark of a genius trader. Never claimed to be. I have been 100% right on Apple, however, partly because I know the company and post here as part of my homework on the stock.

Read more of my posts...you might learn something. I actually use some facts.

 

[simonmet]

Could you please explain, then, if and why you continue to use Apple products

Read the first paragraph. I gave (at least) three reasons. Android is not better, that doesn’t mean I have to applaud every single thing about Apple and what they do. There are enough other people who do that.

I buy second hand now because Apple’s retail prices aren’t worth it to me. I‘m aware I’m helping to prop up the used market and even the new market by doing so. It’s worth it to me to stay in the platform for now, but I’ll certainly never buy a desktop Mac again.

I look out for and act in my own best interests, as does Apple. I would be stupid not to. Perhaps you can explain why I shouldn’t.

 

[Carnegie]

Steve Jobs cared about the Apple customer. Tim Cook cares about the Apple shareholder. Steve was a minor shareholder, Tim is a major one, what a surprise. I prefer the Apple with a simmering stock price that made great products not the Apple with a boiling stock price that makes questionable products.

Mr. Jobs owned a lot more of Apple when he died than Mr. Cook does now. As of the last reporting prior to his death, Mr. Jobs owned more than a half a percent of AAPL - nearly 40 million split-adjusted shares.

Even if we count Mr. Cook's unvested RSUs, he owns less than a tenth of a percent of AAPL - less than 3 million shares. If Mr. Cook had kept all of the shares he's received over the last 15 years, he still wouldn't own nearly as much of Apple as Mr. Jobs did when he died.

Anyone have any guesses as to HOW HIGH Apple stock value has to go warrant another stock split?

I'd guess pretty high. But who knows? Visa, another DJIA component, split at around $250. Apple is near the high end of DJIA share prices, but Boeing is in the $370s. Would Apple split if its share price rose substantially relative to other DJIA components, in order to help rebalance the DJIA and keep AAPL from having an outsized effect on it?

I prefer buybacks to dividends and it’s not even close. Warren Buffett agrees which is why Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend. What other confirmation do we need?

Dividends aren’t tax efficient. Buybacks permanently reduce the share count causing eps to move higher without earnings growth, quarter after quarter, year after year.

I love that my ownership in the company grows without buying more shares.

Small buybacks are one thing, but Apple’s is just so massive.

As share count decreases, the same amount in buyback becomes a bigger percentage. Apple has already repurchased almost 1.5B shares of the ~6B originally outstanding, or over 25%. If they buyback another 1.5B shares, it will be more like 33% Of the company. Huge impact.

Apple has repurchased more than 2.3 billion shares since 2012.

 

[matrix07]

Thank you Apple for making me money. My transition from an avid user to a pure investor is almost complete.

I guess when it’s complete you won’t be here, yes?

 

[MacBH928]

People who make fun of people who say that Apple is doomed...
they are not doomed financially, they are doomed as the tech company we know it to be.

Facebook is worth $500B+ , no one likes facebook except their shareholders.

 

[Gutwrench]

Just wait on the sideline. Youll be able to buy the stock much lower in few months (I believe)

You have to be aggressive. Waiting is what I did And you find yourself second-guessing when’s the right time to buy. The idea it’s not to ‘worry and sell’ , sometimes you have to sit back and ride out the fluctuation. I think it’s more than being just a ‘numbers game’, it’s all strategy.

Trying to buy or sell at a high or low is how to get burnt. Dollar cost average and minimize guesswork.

 

[I7guy]

People who make fun of people who say that Apple is doomed...
they are not doomed financially, they are doomed as the tech company we know it to be.

Facebook is worth $500B+ , no one likes facebook except their shareholders.

The 100b people who use Facebook for free like it or have a use for it.

 

[Baymowe335]

Mr. Jobs owned a lot more of Apple when he died than Mr. Cook does now. As of the last reporting prior to his death, Mr. Jobs owned more than a half a percent of AAPL - nearly 40 million split-adjusted shares.

Even if we count Mr. Cook's unvested RSUs, he owns less than a tenth of a percent of AAPL - less than 3 million shares. If Mr. Cook had kept all of the shares he's received over the last 15 years, he still wouldn't own nearly as much of Apple as Mr. Jobs did when he died.



I'd guess pretty high. But who knows? Visa, another DJIA component, split at around $250. Apple is near the high end of DJIA share prices, but Boeing is in the $370s. Would Apple split if its share price rose substantially relative to other DJIA components, in order to help rebalance the DJIA and keep AAPL from having an outsized effect on it?



Apple has repurchased more than 2.3 billion shares since 2012.

I think it’s more like 2B but my number wasn’t right either... I was going from memory.

Apple Quarterly Shares Outstanding (Millions of Shares)
Q3 2019	4,601
Q2 2019	4,701
Q1 2018	4,773
Q4 2018	5,000
Q3 2018	4,927
Q2 2018	5,068
Q1 2017	5,158
Q4 2017	5,252
Q3 2017	5,233
Q2 2017	5,262
Q1 2016	5,328
Q4 2016	5,500
Q3 2016	5,473
Q2 2016	5,541
Q1 2015	5,594
Q4 2015	5,793
Q3 2015	5,773
Q2 2015	5,835
Q1 2014	5,882
Q4 2014	6,123
Q3 2014	6,052
Q2 2014	6,157
Q1 2013	6,310
Q4 2013	6,522
Q3 2013	6,470
Q2 2013	6,622
Q1 2012	6,631
Q4 2012	6,617
Q3 2012	6,629

 

[Khedron]

The shareholder aspect is a curious mental analomy that seems unique to Apple followers.

If you went on a BMW forum and said "wow Bugatti just made a great new transmission system" you wouldn't hear "yeah well BMW has more market share of executive cars so Bugatti is trash GTFO not interested go buy another car if you don't think BMW and their CEO are perfect".

 

[I7guy]

The shareholder aspect is a curious mental analomy that seems unique to Apple followers.

If you went on a BMW forum and said "wow Bugatti just made a great new transmission system" you wouldn't hear "yeah well BMW has more market share of executive cars so Bugatti is trash GTFO not interested go buy another car if you don't think BMW and their CEO are perfect".

It’s the perfect, objective counter to show Apple isn’t in the “doomed “ state that some promulgated. There is literally no more objective viewpoint of a for profit company’s health than the overall financial outlook. ( Although even then there is disagreements.)

If much of the hyperbole wasn’t thrown around, there would be less talk of financials is my guess.

 

[ipponrg]

The shareholder aspect is a curious mental analomy that seems unique to Apple followers.

If you went on a BMW forum and said "wow Bugatti just made a great new transmission system" you wouldn't hear "yeah well BMW has more market share of executive cars so Bugatti is trash GTFO not interested go buy another car if you don't think BMW and their CEO are perfect".

It makes people feel better about their decisions.

 

[Carnegie]

I think it’s more like 2B but my number wasn’t right either... I was going from memory.

Apple Quarterly Shares Outstanding (Millions of Shares)
Q3 2019	4,601
Q2 2019	4,701
Q1 2018	4,773
Q4 2018	5,000
Q3 2018	4,927
Q2 2018	5,068
Q1 2017	5,158
Q4 2017	5,252
Q3 2017	5,233
Q2 2017	5,262
Q1 2016	5,328
Q4 2016	5,500
Q3 2016	5,473
Q2 2016	5,541
Q1 2015	5,594
Q4 2015	5,793
Q3 2015	5,773
Q2 2015	5,835
Q1 2014	5,882
Q4 2014	6,123
Q3 2014	6,052
Q2 2014	6,157
Q1 2013	6,310
Q4 2013	6,522
Q3 2013	6,470
Q2 2013	6,622
Q1 2012	6,631
Q4 2012	6,617
Q3 2012	6,629

It's 2.3 billion - around .8 billion through ASRs and 1.5 billion through open market purchases. One of the Apple spreadsheets I keep tracks share repurchases, and money spent on share repurchases, by quarter.

Shares repurchased doesn't equal the change in outstanding shares because Apple is constantly issuing new issues.

 

[realtuner]

The shareholder aspect is a curious mental analomy that seems unique to Apple followers.

If you went on a BMW forum and said "wow Bugatti just made a great new transmission system" you wouldn't hear "yeah well BMW has more market share of executive cars so Bugatti is trash GTFO not interested go buy another car if you don't think BMW and their CEO are perfect".

You just described the typical Android user upon hearing that Apple has the world’s fastest processors and they counter with “Yeah, but Android has higher market share”.

 

[I7guy]

It makes people feel better about their decisions.

No, it points out how utterly wrong people can be. Is another interpretation.

 

[realtuner]

I guess when it’s complete you won’t be here, yes?

Why? We have plenty of users who don’t own Apple devices yet still regularly post telling us so, and pointing out all the flaws in Apple.