As Apple Vision Pro Turns One, Here's What's Next

[Mr_Ed]

They didn’t need to make it an exclusive pitch BECAUSE IT STARTED AT $3500.

The fact that anyone thinks Apple thought a brand new product category, that they were rumored to only be able to make 500,000 of, that started at more than the average American’s monthly take home pay, was going to immediately be a smash hit belies belief.

What makes more sense:

• Apple intentionally released a ridiculously expensive product knowing it was unlikely to sell well, so people would start building making content and developing apps for it, while announcing it as the future of computing, giving everyday examples of how it could be used to make it relatable to normal people (since most of them haven’t seen one before - or if they have just as a fancy 3D game console), with the goal of having a large ecosystem of content when they can get the price (and weight) down to a reasonable place that will appeal to the mass market
• Tim Cook and his lieutenants are smart enough to lead Apple to be a $4 trillion company, but can’t figure out what 75% of commenters and the tech press said when it was announced. They truly believed a product that started at $3500 before tax was going to be sold out for months and every Apple user in America would be clambering for one.

Are we really going with number 2? Really?

So you think a company known for releasing products that cost more than the competition (sometimes WAY more) assumed this particular product would not sell in significant numbers solely based on price? Nah. This was all about hubris on two fronts:

1. Price, where they thought it would sell because “Apple!”. That’s why the announcement reads the way it does. If you remove specific references to the technology/hardware it reads like they might as well be selling us a new iPad.
2. Content Development, where they thought lots of developers would jump in and produce for a new device without any indication of market potential, again, because “Apple!” Hell, they probably didn’t even see any red flags on this front when reports of initial production capacity only being a few hundred thousand started to surface.

 

[surferfb]

So you think a company known for releasing products that cost more than the competition (sometimes WAY more) assumed this particular product would not sell in significant numbers solely based on price? Nah. This was all about hubris on two fronts:

1. Price, where they thought it would sell because “Apple!”. That’s why the announcement reads the way it does. If you remove specific references to the technology/hardware it reads like they might as well be selling us a new iPad.
2. Content Development, where they thought lots of developers would jump in and produce for a new device without any indication of market potential, again, because “Apple!” Hell, they probably didn’t even see any red flags on this front when reports of initial production capacity only being a few hundred thousand started to surface.

Yeah, if you really think Apple is that stupid we’re just going to have to agree to disagree.

 

[TheGenerous]

One year, still waiting for iJustine cables for my Vision Pro

 

[Pakaku]

Still a more worthy endeavour than AI, even if it's a little too far ahead of its time

 

[anthogag]

I do like the concept, but after 5 minutes of the in-store demo I realized: this is not a device providing anywhere near $4k of 'value' to the average consumer...yet. The core issue preventing mass adoption is that it is essentially without a real evolutionary antecedent, and has to work very hard to justify its own existence.

Every other successful Apple device, for instance, has a common consumer object counterpart that makes the digital version easily understood:

People already use personal desktops/laptops ----> Mac
People already use cell phones ---> iPhone
People already read books/newspapers/notepads -----> iPad
People already wear watches ----> Apple Watch
People already wear headphones -----> AirPods
People use home stereo speakers -----> HomePod
????? ------> Vision Pro

That's Apple's problem here: what am I doing now that could be vastly improved by this $4k device? For most people, there isn't a clear answer to that question. Yet.

3D world -----> Vision Pro

 

[KennyJr]

It's my guess that they sell quite well to medical and industrial communities for training as well as for direct application.

Jealous words from a long ago industrial equipment technical training manager.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Good article. Thank you Julie.

IMO much of the dissing of the AVP is poorly thought out. Personally I find the AVP device itself to be very good; superb even for a v1 prototype of a new category. Folks whining about too heavy, etc. probably never previously used head mounted devices, the kinds of devices many folks routinely wore all day for cold outdoors or for work or for war: goggles, respirators, helmets, hard hats, etc. To the whiners I say get over it; adjust the AVP to fit and learn the product.

The current limitation of the AVP is not the hardware or even the price. The limiting factor is the software, which is currently [IMO] beta at best. The good news is that software improvement will come and that hardware has already proven itself to be good enough. But IMO Apple may be screwing up by not throwing enough resources at software, and hence losing momentum for the AVP product.

 

[poematik13]

The price made it instantly DOA. Still havent even seen one IRL outside of the apple store display table.

 

[turbineseaplane]

The limiting factor is the software, which is currently [IMO] beta at best.

Yes ... software and/or content (lack of it) are huge issues

Price is part of that though, as they are in a chicken and egg cycle trying to get going here

The really high price initially means not enough customers which means not enough developer interest which means not enough Apps and content which helps ensure not enough customers ... repeat

Launching all new platforms is really really hard work, even for Apple

 

[Allen_Wentz]

If they are not iDiots, then why did it flop? 😭😭

My vote is that the folks calling it a flop are the idiots.

 

[KennyJr]

I want one .. Waiting for them to go on sale?

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Yes ... software and/or content (lack of it) are huge issues

Price is part of that though, as they are in a chicken and egg cycle trying to get going here

The really high price initially means not enough customers which means not enough developer interest which means not enough Apps and content which helps ensure not enough customers ... repeat

Launching all new platforms is really really hard work, even for Apple

My beef about software is not lack of third party apps [which is a challenge for the reasons you describe] but rather still-broken Apple software. Apple apps like Numbers, Notes, Pages, Photos, Mail, Safari, etc. need to be bombproof and instead they are broken. The visionOS is stronger than the apps are, but it too can use work interacting with one's local Mac and Mac OS.

 

[alfonsog]

I bought one and I didn’t use it much after the first few months but now with the extended display improvements I use it daily as my giant display for my notation programs while having the Vision Pro apps around me for mail, messages, etc. The general feel of the vision os needs refinement kind of like watch os 1 evolved. I’m hoping for major improvements in next version. But I keep seeing more bugs in newer apple os updates perhaps they need to less frequent updates for all os’s.

 

[bmark]

AVP was designed like Siri! An epic failure.

 

[doelcm82]

Old yeller?

That's it! The implication is that AVP will end like the movie, with the arrival of AVP 2 ("Young Yeller")!

 

[Regbial]

So Apple literally did the VirtualBoy 2.0... congrats..

 

[Newbee2025]

Redefines the word “antique”. Dusty and to the corner is an understatement!

 

[johnsawyercjs]

The really high price initially means not enough customers which means not enough developer interest which means not enough Apps and content which helps ensure not enough customers ... repeat

Maybe Apple should have taken at least one page from Meta's playbook, and priced the AVP as a loss leader to promote adoption, at or near their production costs, as Meta did with their Quest headsets. Or is that what Apple actually did?

 

[svish]

Waiting to see the AR glasses one day. In the near future, would like to see a cheaper Vision headset. In the immediate future, would like to see Vision Pro made available in all regions. Still waiting for it to be available in my country.

 

[Rainshadow]

I do like the concept, but after 5 minutes of the in-store demo I realized: this is not a device providing anywhere near $4k of 'value' to the average consumer...yet. The core issue preventing mass adoption is that it is essentially without a real evolutionary antecedent, and has to work very hard to justify its own existence.

Every other successful Apple device, for instance, has a common consumer object counterpart that makes the digital version easily understood:

People already use personal desktops/laptops ----> Mac
People already use cell phones ---> iPhone
People already read books/newspapers/notepads -----> iPad
People already wear watches ----> Apple Watch
People already wear headphones -----> AirPods
People use home stereo speakers -----> HomePod
????? ------> Vision Pro

That's Apple's problem here: what am I doing now that could be vastly improved by this $4k device? For most people, there isn't a clear answer to that question. Yet.

This is just bias showing through though. I don’t have one. But if it was a hit - or doing well enough - the “antecedent” could be claimed to be the television. Or monitors. Or any of our current devices. Your comparison is just a reflection of what one’s interpretation of what the device is. If you don’t see a usecase, there isn’t an antecedent. If there is a use case, we look at what was previous to the use case you envision it being.

… And I would argue iPhones didn’t really have an antecedent. There was a blackberry and a phone but a cell phone wasn’t anything like a smart phone. A smart phone is to the old cell phone like a car is to a horse.

 

[majkom]

That's awesome - but many people don't want to sit in a theater all by themselves. For couples, families, etc - 'big screen media' is enjoyed as a shared experience, which the AVP is kind of the antithesis of.

Again - until the form factor adjusts to something more familiar to the devices and habits consumers already use (e.g. normal eyewear), it's going to remain a niche product. A great product, no doubt. But a niche product.

Yeah, u dont like idea sitting with your wife and children, all their own headset on watching same show? 😂😂😂 hows that? 😂 that product is for singles or psychopats, or few professionals

 

[Marx55]

The solution is easy. Apple Vision Pro could be awesome to watch 3D movies, and most people will want to use it for that. JUST FOR THAT AND ONLY FOR THAT. Not for fancy virtual interfaces, to control the Mac interface or other awkward interface applications, except for disabled people perhaps.

But the lack of support for standard prescription glasses is a DEAL BREAKER. And no, contact lenses or magnetic inserts are not acceptable workarounds for most people. Just imagine having to spend a lot of money on new magnetic inserts each year, as would be required by many people. And the obnoxious huge environmental impact of all that.

But there is a solution., if Apple wants, of course. Just support prescription lenses with Apple Vision Pro. Or sell two models: one not supporting prescription lenses (current one), and other only to watch 3D movies (or any movie on large area), allowing prescription glasses (which would also be a much much, much cheaper model, selling like hotcakes). Problem solved for all.

Probably Apple will not do that, unless forced to do it. If sales of the current Apple Vision Pro are scarce and people ask for the other model, Apple could make it. That would be awesome.

 

[ginkobiloba]

Even at a quarter of the current price, I just don't see a compelling product, except for a few very limited use cases. Maybe someday, when it doesn't involve a large, uncomfortable headset.

Meta Quest 2 and 3 are selling like hotcakes, which proves that there is a substantial market for VR headset .
It’s just that there is no real market for 3500 $ headsets.

 

[CaspianKing]

Apple under Tim's leadership failed to create new products. Seems Apple keeps cashing in the iPhone until when...? looks like over the years same design, minor upgades has not been good for Apple. Apple needs newer products and newer ideas... Sad that Steve Jobs left Apple to go to Apple Heaven.

 

[arkitect]

The price made it instantly DOA. Still havent even seen one IRL outside of the apple store display table.

I have actually seen one being used here locally… and once only.

In a crowded very popular coffee shop, students working on their (mostly) Macs, moms chatting about their babies, other folk talking to their friends… a few writing in their journals or notebooks… the usual coffeeshop crowd.
Jazzy music playing, idle chatter. Warm inside from the cold winter out.

But there was this one chap, in the corner, with a big face hugger clasped to his head.
Waving his hands and pinching his fingers…

He looked so isolated as he sat there, cut off, sipping his coffee through a straw.