I'm at a loss for how GV makes any difference in this scenario. If you move to another carrier, you can port your number to that carrier and not lose the number, so how exactly does GV help?
You're aware that GV is NOT a carrier service right? All it does it route calls to the carrier(s) you are using...
But to stay with the same carrier with the same number and upgrade earlier you will pay this advertised price, which just went up. My point is that in order for you to retain the number and not go on contract, GV is one of the best options. Let me fully spell out my two options, as they are right now:
1) Pay early upgrade pricing to upgrade my 16GB iPhone 3Gs to the 32 GB iPhone 4. This would cost $549 under the new pricing arrangement.
2) Transfer my number to GV. This part costs $20 once, and AT&T will give me a new number. I suppose that this may also include an activation fee, as well, so I'll give my cost with and without it. This will definitely incur an early termination fee, however, so I will add this in regardless. Then, the price to upgrade to a new phone, while still being able to use the same number would be: $299 + $20 + $175 - $5/month * 18 months = $404 without an activation fee or + $36 = $440 with the largest activation fee.
As you can see, option two is cheaper in both cases. The only difference is that you end up with a different number to call your phone directly, but I'd prefer to route my number through GV anyway, and I could give out my direct line for those that really need it (my wife) and route everything else through GV.
Here's AT&T's support section for activation fees, which actually appear to favor my theory that I would NOT be charged an activation fee. But even if I did, it would be more cheaper than early upgrade pricing if, like me, you started your contract prior to June 2010 when they changed their ETF. Their ETF section is
here.
Just for the fun of it, I'll run through the calculation for those that purchased the iPhone 4 last June to see if it makes sense for them to upgrade, assuming the prices stay the same and the iPhone comes out in September (Fall 2011, which seems to be pretty likely): $299 + $20 + $325 - $10/month * 16 months = $484.
So, either way, it doesn't seem to make much sense to pay the early upgrade prices unless you want to avoid GV.