I could be wrong but i asked my friend who works in att and he said check your order number if its greater than 1500 than you wont be getting the phone on launch day.
This could be wrong but so far the customers who have got the tracking number are the one who's first four tracking number is less than 1500
I have 4 orders, all of them are 1400, all of them placed at 3:10 am EST, all of them are backordered!