You were likely misled by at&t's text, as did many people. "As a valued customer, we can offer you an upgrade..." doesn't tell you what kind of upgrade you're eligible for and you're likely eligible for the early iPhone upgrade ($199 + $250).
No, it can't be that, because I didn't rely on a text. I went to the website and clicked to upgrade my phone, and was presented with phone options including an iPhone 4S for $199.
Edit to add: It also showed my ability to buy an S3 for $199. So at least some of us launch-day subsidized 4S owners are getting the full subsidy. Based on what I'm seeing here, now.
Last edited: