but the truth is that Blu Ray nor HD-DVD will ever catch on like the DVD format did.
Um, yeah, the "winning" format will surpass it. Study the history of media a little and it's obvious. DVD is just another phase, as is BluRay/HD-DVD. Just like 78's overtook wax rolls, which were overtaken by LP's, then 8-track/cassette, CD, etc., etc. People are going to be replacing existing content at a frightening pace, once this thing is settled in a bit, as they always have.
Considering the coming technical and regulatory landslide, HD content, media, displays, broadcast, are all ramping forward at a dizzying pace. This game is only just warming up.
If you've been around long enough to remember the Beta/VHS wars, you know this is just another transitional period. In less than ten years, BluRay/HD-DVD will be a fond memory, bank on it. New formats, new players, new landfills.