Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[iluvmacs99]

Look, if someone thinks they have natural immunity and want to take a chance, so be it. Or if you think you have natural immunity, but want to get the vaccine anyway, great! But, I don’t see any reason why I need to have to wear a mask to protect this group should they decide not to get vaccinated, which was my point. This still sounds like group 1 in my list….adults that are eligible but may elect not to get vaccinated. I am not particularly sympathetic.

Of course it's hard to be sympathetic to people who are labelled as not being a team player. But let's make this clear. You are not wearing a mask only to protect this group of people; you are only wearing a mask so you are cutting down on your "own" transmission of the virus if you are happened to be infected by the Delta variant. Here are some known facts about the Delta variant. The Delta variant's incubation period is 3-5 days with the average period of 4 days. The original strain's incubation period is 5-8 days with the average period of 6 days. The Delta variant is also roughly 1260x more infectious than the original strain. That research data came from China. So it's not like it's new.

btw - it is untrue that there is no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated in transmitting the infection. The CDC clearly state on Tuesday that vaccinated people are less likely to get infected …… 3 times less likely. You can not transmit if you are not infected. People keep missing this important point. The CDCis new science was that, given someone is infected, vaccinated and unvaccinated seem to be carrying about the same amount of viral load. That does not mean they are just as likely to infect another person, since vaccinated are less likely to get infected in the first place.

There are 2 ways to get immunity from COVID.
1, Through natural infection and get to live and tell
2, Through vaccination and get to live and tell as well

So either way, you will get vaccinated naturally or through a needle. So for every unvaccinated patient who goes into a hospital and recovered, that patient will have the antibodies and the necessary memory cells needed to mount a defense against another COVID infection.

Any vaccine had never given 100% immunity to any infection. That's not what it does. It only teaches the immune system to elicit an immune response in how to mount that defense against the virus and lessen its impact on the severity of the illness. In order to elicit that immune response, you need to get infected either by the actual live virus or from a safe harmless agent that mimics a live virus. What reduces infection is good old fashioned mask wearing and social distancing and not being in crowded places with high infection rates. Having the vaccine is not a panacea to replace mask wearing, social distancing and avoiding large crowds who might be infectious with the Delta variant.

 

[Mainsail]

Of course it's hard to be sympathetic to people who are labelled as not being a team player. But let's make this clear. You are NOT wearing a mask only to protect this group of people; you are only wearing a mask so you are cutting down on your "OWN" transmission of the virus if you are happened to be infected by the Delta variant. Here are some known facts about the Delta variant. The Delta variant's incubation period is 3-5 days with the average period of 4 days. The original strain's incubation period is 5-8 days with the average period of 6 days. The Delta variant is also roughly 1260x more infectious than the original strain. That research data came from China. So it's not like it's new.


There are 2 ways to get immunity from COVID.
1, Through natural infection and get to live and tell
2, Through vaccination and get to live and tell as well

So either way, you will get vaccinated naturally or through a needle. So for every unvaccinated patient who goes into a hospital and recovered, that patient will have the antibodies and the necessary memory cells needed to mount a defense against another COVID infection.

But both natural immunity and vaccination does not prevent another infection nor does it kill the virus. That's what you are being told that narrative and it isn't quite accurate. It's a nice narrative to sell on if you plan on selling a bunch of vaccines and sell this narrative of the golden shield protection, a panacea to a pandemic problem.

That's why the vaccine business is a money looser to begin, because a vaccine had never given 100% immunity to any disease. That's not what it does. It only teaches the immune system to elicit an immune response in how to mount that defense against the virus and lessen its impact on the severity of the illness. That is up to your immune system and whether it can do its job for you after you had been vaccinated.

Of course, there is no such thing as 100% immunity, regardless of how you developed antibodies (vaccine or prior-infection) there is some chance that you could get reinfected and seriously ill. When the vaccines were first introduced, they spoke of efficacy of 85%. I don't ever remember people talking about vaccines giving 100% immunity. It's all about percentage, probabilities and severity of illness. I will repeat from CNN reporting:

”The CDC internal document estimated that vaccines reduce the risk of severe disease or death 10-fold or greater, and they reduce the risk of infection three-fold”

The problem with acquiring the antibodies through unvaccinated infection (which I assume is what you mean by natural immunity) is that you have a higher chance of getting severely sick or dying than if you are vaccinated. So far, the vaccines have held up very well in preventing sever illness, hospitalization, and death (which is the point really).

Think about it in terms of the standard Risk equation: Risk = probability x consequence. For the vaccinated person, the probability of infection is lower and the consequence of infection is significantly lower. Ergo, much lower risk to the vaccinated individual. Also, less risk and harm to society. Why? Less risk of infection means less risk of transmission because you can not transmit if you are not infected. Also, less risk of serious illness means fewer people in hospitals and less strain on the health care system.

 

[bradl]

Think about it in terms of the standard Risk equation: Risk = probability x consequence. For the vaccinated person, the probability of infection is lower and the consequence of infection is significantly lower.

Cape Cod/Provincetown shows otherwise. That is the point you keep forgetting when you bring up this talking point.

Ergo, much lower risk to the vaccinated individual.

Again, Cape Cod/Provincetown proves contrary to this. People were vaccinated there and still contracted COVID.

Also, less risk and harm to society. Why? Less risk of infection means less risk of transmission because you can not transmit if you are not infected. Also, less risk of serious illness means fewer people in hospitals and less strain on the health care system.

See the above.

BL.

 

[pshufd]

But if a mask helps, why fight it. I don't understand... People equate it to a bridle, or a straight jacket. It's neither.

I would rather not wear one and the same is true for the vast majority of people. Fortunately I don't have to wear one all day.

But a lot of people do because they work in retail, hospitals or other jobs where they interact with people all day long. I can wear one at the gym for an hour or at the store. But I'm not there all day. I can also time shift to minimize contact with other people.

 

[iluvmacs99]

I will repeat from CNN reporting:

”The CDC internal document estimated that vaccines reduce the risk of severe disease or death 10-fold or greater, and they reduce the risk of infection three-fold”

The problem with acquiring the antibodies through unvaccinated infection (which I assume is what you mean by natural immunity) is that you have a higher chance of getting severely sick or dying than if you are vaccinated. So far, the vaccines have held up very well in preventing sever illness, hospitalization, and death (which is the point really).

Sadly though; this is a narrative some people like to play with to promote window vaccine shopping. Developing immunity is not all about the number of antibodies in your system. There are other factors.

The US Cleveland study had done a study between vaccinated and unvaccinated but naturally infected health care workers and it showed that there is only a very slight difference between the antibodies produced by the vaccinated and unvaccinated but has natural immunity to COVID. This was done with the original strain. So this Cleveland study showed that there is no difference in the immune response either with vaccinated and those with natural immunity. It did however show a higher level of antibodies when the natural immunity person got the 1st vaccine dose. A natural immunity person who got the 1st dose of the vaccine is equivalent to that of a vaccinated person with 2 doses against the original strain.

However in a different updated study with the Delta variant, both the vaccinated person who got 1 dose faced the same hospitalization rate as the person with natural immunity to the original strain of COVID. Which meant that you do need a vaccine to help boost that natural immunity to help prevent severe illness and hospitalization with the Delta variant. So the CDC internal document does point to some factual data that's already out there, but I think it's more relevant with the Delta variant rather than the UK variant or the original variant.

Which was the reason why I got 2 doses of the vaccine despite having natural immunity. Never hurts to being more safe against any severe illness!

 

[Mainsail]

Cape Cod/Provincetown shows otherwise. That is the point you keep forgetting when you bring up this talking point.



Again, Cape Cod/Provincetown proves contrary to this. People were vaccinated there and still contracted COVID.



See the above.

BL.

Per 10Boston local news, out of a cluster of almost 900 people; "Seven people have been hospitalized in connection with this cluster -- five from Massachusetts and two from out of state -- and no deaths have been reported." So, it seems like this is a case were the vaccines worked to prevent serious illness or death.

We will need to learn more about this cluster as it relates to the number of infections. I would be very cautions about drawing general conclusions from a single event. There are numerous ways these cluster outliers can be misleading. And it is an outlier, since nationally the vast majority of new infections and people in the hospital/deaths are unvaccinated.

 

[Mainsail]

I suggest everyone please read this:

White House frustrated with 'hyperbolic' and 'irresponsible' Delta variant coverage

A version of this article first appeared in the "Reliable Sources" newsletter. You can sign up for free right here.

www.cnn.com

Now, I understand why the WH is frustrated with how media coverage has stomped all over the message about vaccine efficacy and misled millions, but I must say they carry some of the blame. The CDC did a miserable job of communication, and that is on the Administration.

 

[pshufd]

Sadly though; this is a narrative some people like to play with to promote window vaccine shopping. Developing immunity is not all about the number of antibodies in your system. There are other factors.

The US Cleveland study had done a study between vaccinated and unvaccinated but naturally infected health care workers and it showed that there is only a very slight difference between the antibodies produced by the vaccinated and unvaccinated but has natural immunity to COVID. This was done with the original strain. So this Cleveland study showed that there is no difference in the immune response either with vaccinated and those with natural immunity. It did however show a higher level of antibodies when the natural immunity person got the 1st vaccine dose. A natural immunity person who got the 1st dose of the vaccine is equivalent to that of a vaccinated person with 2 doses against the original strain.

However in a different updated study with the Delta variant, both the vaccinated person who got 1 dose faced the same hospitalization rate as the person with natural immunity to the original strain of COVID. Which meant that you do need a vaccine to help boost that natural immunity to help prevent severe illness and hospitalization with the Delta variant. So the CDC internal document does point to some factual data that's already out there, but I think it's more relevant with the Delta variant rather than the UK variant or the original variant.

Which was the reason why I got 2 doses of the vaccine despite having natural immunity. Never hurts to being more safe against any severe illness!

Just give me the vaccine under development that covers the variants. That should outperform the original vaccines.

 

[nicho]

Lying? Oops, did I say it out loud?

I thought you had enough about you to realise that it’s essentially impossible to lie about the virus. Don’t be a wally.

Look at the delta variant around the world and then look in the mirror and tell yourself you honestly believe that it’s possible to cover up on the scale it would inevitably reach.

The fact is, China has done an incredible job with COVID that Chinaphobes don’t want to accept.

 

[nicho]

Even other countries in this world who have strict lockdowns aren't claiming such absolutism of defeating the virus. That is pure propagand by the CCP to their residents. the CCP must always appear in absolute control and in charge, and can never be wrong / fail.

If you believe other countries had strict lockdowns you’ve clearly never set foot in China or have no idea how the country is built and developed.

These weren’t strict lockdowns with exceptions for people who fancy a stroll in a park 50 miles away or want to pop down to the shops to buy a garden bench but don’t fancy masking up because they don’t like the feel of it.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I thought you had enough about you to realise that it’s essentially impossible to lie about the virus. Don’t be a wally.

Look at the delta variant around the world and then look in the mirror and tell yourself you honestly believe that it’s possible to cover up on the scale it would inevitably reach.

The fact is, China has done an incredible job with COVID that Chinaphobes don’t want to accept.

Yes, it’s totally possible to lie. There are no international observers, and each country is allowed to count deaths and cases its on way as there is no mandate, and no real standard. So yeah, they can lie as much as they want.

 

[yaxomoxay]

If you believe other countries had strict lockdowns you’ve clearly never set foot in China or have no idea how the country is built and developed.

These weren’t strict lockdowns with exceptions for people who fancy a stroll in a park 50 miles away or want to pop down to the shops to buy a garden bench but don’t fancy masking up because they don’t like the feel of it.

Yep. Very credible in a country of 1B+. However it seems they have a delta outbreak so we’ll see.

 

[nicho]

Yep. Very credible in a country of 1B+. However it seems they have a delta outbreak so we’ll see.

View attachment 1813111

For someone who is so keen to avoid political talk in this thread to keep it out of PRSI, your denial of observation to preserve beliefs about China is almost ironically religious.

With that aside, the physical makeup of Chinese cities (yes, practically all of them) is what ensured lockdowns were more successful than other places. It’s hard to understand without coming here - which incidentally, you have no hope of being able to anytime soon, one way they’re reducing the inflow of the virus, since they’ve never ascribed to the belief that vaccinated = can’t transmit to others. That’s partly because of the nature of the Chinese vaccines, which is a discussion for another post, but in practical terms the world has to dial back to that belief, thanks Delta - but I’ll try to help you picture it. China is unlike any western country; cities are unlike western cities in their organisation or development.

China got lucky in that almost everything they needed to successfully lock down was in place already. Cities are divided into districts. Districts are divided organisationally into sub districts. Sub districts are divided into communities, and 99% of these communities are either walled off from the next one (cities) or physically distanced/separated by fields etc (in smaller towns/countryside areas). The best way to picture it is imagining a block in New York, with a massive wall around it and only one entrance (with guards who ensure only those people who live in that block can access it, that temperatures are checked, and that anyone who has been away for a day or two is reported to the local officials). Every community was reduced to a single access point. People were banned from any community they didn’t live in. Deliveries, which used to come to peoples doors, were now to be left on hastily assembled shelving areas on the street outside the compound. And I do say hastily assembled - I threw out an IKEA kids table during the early days of lockdown and found it outside the compound with packages left on it a few weeks later).

To point out here - in a similar fashion to how manufacturing ended up in China, labour is cheap. Not as cheap as in the past, but since guarding and deliveries are as low skilled as it gets, haven’t had as much of an increase as, say, Foxconn has experienced. The manpower certainly helped ensure the success of the lockdown, since people couldn’t break it easily. But deliveries were still possible in many areas and they didn’t need to allow a ton of exceptions (one of my friends actually got locked down way worse than we did; her community banned people from leaving. It was only allowed once every other day, between 2 and 5pm or something ridiculous like that. They actually had tickets to leave their compounds and buy groceries…)

At this point, ask yourself if even 1/10th of this was possible in other countries with “strict lockdowns”. The answer is that they weren’t strict lockdowns at all, they just felt that way to Twitter snowflakes and the anti-government types. I guess teaching 1 billion people to love the government and the country hand in hand (rather than just the country) helps a little too.

Anyway, the technology, infrastructure and systems were all there in a way that don’t necessarily exist in other countries. China got incredibly lucky that COVID hit when it did. If it broke out when I first set foot in China, I don’t think they’d have coped one tenth as well as they actually did.

I await the inevitable “but they’d probably still say they did, just like this time” line…

 

[yaxomoxay]

For someone who is so keen to avoid political talk in this thread to keep it out of PRSI,

I think I miserably failed on this. I guess it’s a natural consequence of PRSI’s closure.

your denial of observation to preserve beliefs about China is almost ironically religious.

With that aside, the physical makeup of Chinese cities (yes, practically all of them) is what ensured lockdowns were more successful than other places. It’s hard to understand without coming here - which incidentally, you have no hope of being able to anytime soon, one way they’re reducing the inflow of the virus, since they’ve never ascribed to the belief that vaccinated = can’t transmit to others. That’s partly because of the nature of the Chinese vaccines, which is a discussion for another post, but in practical terms the world has to dial back to that belief, thanks Delta - but I’ll try to help you picture it. China is unlike any western country; cities are unlike western cities in their organisation or development.

China got lucky in that almost everything they needed to successfully lock down was in place already. Cities are divided into districts. Districts are divided organisationally into sub districts. Sub districts are divided into communities, and 99% of these communities are either walled off from the next one (cities) or physically distanced/separated by fields etc (in smaller towns/countryside areas). The best way to picture it is imagining a block in New York, with a massive wall around it and only one entrance (with guards who ensure only those people who live in that block can access it, that temperatures are checked, and that anyone who has been away for a day or two is reported to the local officials). Every community was reduced to a single access point. People were banned from any community they didn’t live in. Deliveries, which used to come to peoples doors, were now to be left on hastily assembled shelving areas on the street outside the compound. And I do say hastily assembled - I threw out an IKEA kids table during the early days of lockdown and found it outside the compound with packages left on it a few weeks later).

To point out here - in a similar fashion to how manufacturing ended up in China, labour is cheap. Not as cheap as in the past, but since guarding and deliveries are as low skilled as it gets, haven’t had as much of an increase as, say, Foxconn has experienced. The manpower certainly helped ensure the success of the lockdown, since people couldn’t break it easily. But deliveries were still possible in many areas and they didn’t need to allow a ton of exceptions (one of my friends actually got locked down way worse than we did; her community banned people from leaving. It was only allowed once every other day, between 2 and 5pm or something ridiculous like that. They actually had tickets to leave their compounds and buy groceries…)

At this point, ask yourself if even 1/10th of this was possible in other countries with “strict lockdowns”. The answer is that they weren’t strict lockdowns at all, they just felt that way to Twitter snowflakes and the anti-government types. I guess teaching 1 billion people to love the government and the country hand in hand (rather than just the country) helps a little too.

Anyway, the technology, infrastructure and systems were all there in a way that don’t necessarily exist in other countries. China got incredibly lucky that COVID hit when it did. If it broke out when I first set foot in China, I don’t think they’d have coped one tenth as well as they actually did.

I await the inevitable “but they’d probably still say they did, just like this time” line…

Nah, I won’t give you the last line. I’ll give you this: time will tell.

 

[LordVic]

If you believe other countries had strict lockdowns you’ve clearly never set foot in China or have no idea how the country is built and developed.

These weren’t strict lockdowns with exceptions for people who fancy a stroll in a park 50 miles away or want to pop down to the shops to buy a garden bench but don’t fancy masking up because they don’t like the feel of it.

I truly believe China is absolutely doing their best to lock **** down. And have resources (due to political reasons) to be able to do so effecitively


I also still think they're lying.

Both are not mutually exclusive.

 

[poorcody]

I truly believe China is absolutely doing their best to lock **** down. And have resources (due to political reasons) to be able to do so effecitively

I also still think they're lying.

Both are not mutually exclusive.

If anyone is interested, PBS's Frontline did an in-depth story on China's response to COVID in the early days.

China's COVID Secrets | FRONTLINE

Watch FRONTLINE's documentary tracing the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and how China responded.

www.pbs.org

 

[pshufd]

After reading around this morning I'm more convinced than ever to mask up inside. I do not plan to mask up outside though given low population density in my area. Unless there's evidence to the contrary to do so.

It looks like we don't have enough data in the US, especially regarding asymptomatic infections among the vaccinated so we can't really get clear efficacy numbers on preventing infection. We can, though, use the better numbers from other countries.

I saw a video where a doctor said that the booster is a big topic of conversation among the doctors at her hospital. I just sent a note to my oncologist asking him about it.

 

[0924487]

The move to China, and other countries is all about increasing investor wealth, and that's pretty much it. We import nails from China. NAILS! You know how to make nails? A trained monkey could make nails. You stand and feed wire into a machine. Why make nails in China and not America? The guy watching the machine in China makes in a month, what the American worker gets paid in a day. It's all greed.

Elon Musk said the US must keep on innovating at a very rapid pace, or we will go bust. It's a knowledge-centric economy we live in. No one will hire an American to make a nail, but surely companies like Solidworks and Lockheed Martin are doing pretty well and are hiring in the US. If Americans cannot find or create jobs that the Chinese cannot do, then it's game over, at least before there is wage parity between China and the US.

 

[pshufd]

Discussion of leaked CDC slides

Good overall summary of where we are. This was presented to Congress a few days ago. Nothing that we don't already know - but it's nicely summarized.

 

[baypharm]

I would personally prefer that people drive more responsibly, and keep their vehicles in good working order. We can definitely decrease accidents by enforcing existing laws. Such as the laws against distracted driving. Or the death penalty for drunk driving. I generally drive below the speed limit if I feel that the road doesn't support higher speeds.

I'd also add removal of driving privileges for a year for distracted driving. The last two accidents I was in involved getting hit by one person with her phone surgically attached to her hand and another young hit and run driver.

I am in a gym daily where there are 100-150 kids in close quarters. One case of COVID there would explode. I suspect the place is going to issue new guidance in a few weeks. Parents depend on this place to take care of their kids so that they can go to work. So closing this place down would be a problem for them.

I disagree with safer driving crashing the economy. If you lose your license, you need another way to get to work. So you could just hire someone to drive you. Speeding could be looked at as an efficiency and a lot of efficiency usually results in decreased jobs or decreased quality of jobs. Broken Windows economic theory.

I agree with you. The problem lies with the idiots who say screw it and drive illegally. So many of them drive with no valid license and or insurance. They just don’t care. They should be locked up for at least two decades.

 

[baypharm]

No, this is just math (probability theory) actually. The virus cannot spread if we achieve herd immunity. We need vaccine efficacy rate multiplied by vaccine rate to be greater than 80%. Then even the vulnerable people are safe, because the transmission barrier is strong enough, that’s the definition of herd immunity. It doesn’t mean most people are safe, it means the virus cannot survive. We may have sporadic cases, but they are going to be limited and transient.

When medical resources are abundant, even if you have COVID, you will be safe anyway.

Herd immunity is not possible with this particular virus. Even if it were, how many fatalities are acceptable to you?

SARS-CoV-2 is constantly mutating to protect itself from being eradicated. The Delta mutant is much worse than the original strain. The Lambda variant is even more virulent.

The current vaccines do work very well. Vaccination is the best defense available to prevent large scale death.

 

[baypharm]

Yes, vaccines are still very effective. But what we're seeing is a decrease in their effectiveness. Where will we be by the holiday season? Whereas almost all hospital patients are unvaccinated today, by the end of the year, if trends continue, a fair percentage will be vaccinated. The point being, vaccinated people need to look forward and adjust their behavior today. And booster shots will be needed, as Israel has decided.


Dr. Scott Gottlieb said the administration has data showing that if they recommend a booster shot, more people will be discouraged from getting the vaccine (see at the 0:20 mark of video link). So we may be delaying getting booster shots for exactly your thinking. It's debatable, but I totally disagree with it. I think people should be treated like adults and given all the facts.

Wear a mask

 

[bradl]

Per 10Boston local news, out of a cluster of almost 900 people; "Seven people have been hospitalized in connection with this cluster -- five from Massachusetts and two from out of state -- and no deaths have been reported." So, it seems like this is a case were the vaccines worked to prevent serious illness or death.

We will need to learn more about this cluster as it relates to the number of infections. I would be very cautions about drawing general conclusions from a single event. There are numerous ways these cluster outliers can be misleading. And it is an outlier, since nationally the vast majority of new infections and people in the hospital/deaths are unvaccinated.

And in this, you proved my point: The vaccines were shown to prevent serious illness or death, which is what I stated earlier. In this case, the vaccines did NOT prevent further transmission of COVID to other people: vaccinated, unvaccinated, or otherwise. Again, it showed that those who were vaccinated and infected with COVID from this event had the same amount of virus in their test samples as those who were unvaccinated and infected with COVID from this event.

BL.

 

[poorcody]

For all of the analyses on the recent news of the Delta variant, I think these two graphics from the CDC PowerPoint presentation sum it up pretty well:

 

[pshufd]

And in this, you proved my point: The vaccines were shown to prevent serious illness or death, which is what I stated earlier. In this case, the vaccines did NOT prevent further transmission of COVID to other people: vaccinated, unvaccinated, or otherwise. Again, it showed that those who were vaccinated and infected with COVID from this event had the same amount of virus in their test samples as those who were unvaccinated and infected with COVID from this event.

BL.

It was Provincetown.