Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[Cave Man]

What we don't know:
If the new variant is more transmissible than the delta variant
If the new variant is more sever or deadly than the delta variant
If the new variant is able to evade vaccines

Just off a conference call on the omicron VOC. Still too early to know if it's more transmissible. R0 in South Africa seems to be about 1.5, but there are not enough data to know with certainty. The cases are hitting younger people more than older people. But in South Africa (and Africa as a whole), the great majority of the population are young people. Disease appears to be no worse than other variants and may be less severe. There may be less protection for those vaccinated with Pfizer based upon sequence data. However, no virus isolates have been made yet so only pseudotype VSV assays will be available in the coming weeks (vesicular stomatitis virus that expresses the omicron spike protein that will be used to test neutralizing antibodies in omicron infected people, and vaccinated people).

 

[pshufd]

Chances are omicron here and has been here, it’s only a matter of time before the monitoring system in place picks it up. If it’s in Europe and Canada, which it is, it’s going to pop up here. Restricting travel is only going to slow the spread.

Unfortunately there’s very little info on what we should be expecting here. South Africa claims cases are mild, but it’s still early in the game and given their outrage over travel restrictions I think there should be some scrutiny as to whether they are trying to downplay the severity for political/economic purposes.

I think it’s highly unlikely the virus will be completely resistant to the current vaccines. But we need to be doing to more to ensure all of Africa has access to vaccinations, otherwise variants will continue to arise. The new antiviral therapeutics look promising, however the typical issue with antivirals is that they are extremely time sensitive- usually having to be started within a couple days of symptom onset to be effective.

There was a second interview with an ICU doctor in South Africa in an area where the vaccination rate was very low and he was seeing moderate to severe cases with Omicron. So far it seems like Omicron is like Delta when it comes to severity - but the symptoms are quite different. Most of the experts that I've seen interviewed said that we would know a lot more in two weeks.

 

[dannyyankou]

The researcher who discovered the variant says no one who has been infected with it has been admitted to the hospital yet, and symptoms are extremely minor. I don't want to get too optimistic, but I've always thought the way this pandemic ends is, yes vaccinations and treatments, but the virus mutating into a cold-like virus (colds are coronaviruses fyi)

 

[pshufd]

The researcher who discovered the variant says no one who has been infected with it has been admitted to the hospital yet, and symptoms are extremely minor. I don't want to get too optimistic, but I've always thought the way this pandemic ends is, yes vaccinations and treatments, but the virus mutating into a cold-like virus (colds are coronaviruses fyi)

“We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with Covid-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of intensive care at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto, told an online media briefing on Saturday.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.

Young people bearing brunt of Covid-19 resurgence, ICU doctor warns

The speed at which the new Covid-19 variant Omicron is infecting young people has alarmed SA health professionals.

www.timeslive.co.za

I don't know the situation with the other doctor. Perhaps her patients are better vaccinated.

 

[44267547]

My concern isn’t the necessarily the side effects, but how quickly it’s spreading. I think the danger of a new variant isn’t just symptoms, but how it’s transmitting so quickly, which for some areas, will create more problems for the unvaccinated. But at this point, those who are not vaccinated, will likely just remain unvaccinated no matter what the situation seems to be.

On that note, Canada and the Netherlands are both examples of spiking Omicron cases.

 

[pshufd]

My concern isn’t the necessarily the side effects, but how quickly it’s spreading. I think the danger of a new variant isn’t just symptoms, but how it’s transmitting so quickly, which for some areas, will create more problems for the unvaccinated. But at this point, those who are not vaccinated, will likely just remain unvaccinated no matter what the situation seems to be.

On that note, Canada and the Netherlands are both examples of spiking Omicron cases.

It affects all of us.

MA just asked hospitals to postpone elective procedures because of staffing shortages and high rates of people going to hospitals to take care of health problems that were postponed due to the pandemic. I need a complex surgery but I'm putting it off because any complications resulting from the surgery could result in big problems (my state has quite serious hospital capacity problems right now) and the emergency room and hospital might not be options with Omicron looming large. So don't get into an accident and don't get sick.

 

[400]

Yesterday's presser with the UK medical team leads were very clear they need more info (it was explained well as to why and what) but wanted to be ahead of the wave to be on the safe side and are ramping up boosters and age groups. Dropping times between jabs as well.

Covid: UK aims for 500,000 jabs a day in bid to outpace Omicron variant

Ministers to ramp up vaccinations to 3.5m a week as minimum gap for boosters is halved to three months

www.theguardian.com

 

[pshufd]

Moderna CEO thinks that the current vaccines won't do very well against Omicron. It tanked the markets last night, again.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I’m at work today and we have several of our colleagues over from the Netherlands. My boss seems oblivious to the fact they have travelled through Schipol Airport last night and the rules are changing today. Lots of unhappy people here today that their visit wasn’t postponed

 

[Gregg2]

Seems that we got two-for-one this time.
Ahmicron and Ohmicron

 

[A.Goldberg]

Seems that we got two-for-one this time.
Ahmicron and Ohmicron

I’ve heard about half a dozen different pronunciations of omicron. I’ve always said oh-muh-chron, not that it’s a particularly common letter. But you also hear ah-muh-chron. The British English speakers in particular seem emphasize “micron” saying ah/oh-my-chron or ah/oh-me-chron.

 

[ericgtr12]

I’ve heard about half a dozen different pronunciations of omicron. I’ve always said oh-muh-chron, not that it’s a particularly common letter. But you also hear ah-muh-chron. The British English speakers in particular seem emphasize “micron” saying ah/oh-my-chron or ah/oh-me-chron.

Anyone who's watched Futurama knows how to pronounce the planet Omicron Persei 8, the way you say it.

Artist's depiction (and home of Lrrr):

 

[Macky-Mac]

Omicron has arrived in California

link

 

[44267547]

Ok, if I’m understanding correctly, the one Omicron case that’s been identified in California, that person has been quarantined, and is experiencing mild effects and is fully vaccinated. The people that they had contact with, also tested negative.

Also, Japan, Brazil and South Korea have all now reported Omicron cases in the last 24 hours. I believe a total of 20 countries now are reporting positive cases.

 

[400]

Interesting research in the clots. key word in the header though, "researchers "believed" they have found"... etc etc.

Covid: Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists

Researchers in Cardiff and the US work out how the Covid jab may be linked to the extremely rare clots.

www.bbc.co.uk

Can't find the press release but it is cropping up in a few news orgs in the UK and source listed as Cardiff University and the US (bit vague on the latter).

Edit. BBC have updated the page since I posted this with links to the research.

AAAS

www.science.org

And something from Cardiff Uni now

Scientists may have solved an important part of the mystery of ultra-rare blood clots linked to adenovirus COVID-19 vaccines

Cardiff and US researchers discover potential mechanism behind extremely rare clotting disorder

www.cardiff.ac.uk

Edit edit. Rude of me, I now see it also Arizona State University.

 

[SactoGuy18]

However, South African epidemiologists who have studied Omicron said (sorry if I'm repeating myself!) that the physical effects of this new variant is much lower than previous variants. It spreads easily but has effects more akin to the common cold (rhinovirus infection). The only people who should be concerned are those who have never been vaccinated.

 

[poorcody]

Some good news out of Israel. They started their booster program a couple of months before us, so they have a solid three months of data now. Whereas waning immunity after the second dose is very clear after three months, they are not seeing a similar decline after the booster in the same timeframe:

'Booster protection isn't waning': Top Israeli COVID expert answers your questions

***

www.haaretz.com

(Note this article was from before Omicron.)

From the article:

According to Alroy-Preis, preliminary testing has indicated that the antibodies produced by the booster shot are “stronger and better in quality” than those developed after the first two shots, making her “hopeful that we will have higher protection for a longer period of time.” However, she can’t make a definitive statement yet.

Israel is now changing their vaccination "pass" to consider only three shots to now be fully vaccinated.

It's starting to look-like this is less two shots and a booster, and more a three-shot regime, similar to vaccinations for things like Polio and Hepitaties B. See:

Third COVID Vaccine Dose Could Be the Last

Experts point to longer interval between doses providing more robust immunity

www.medpagetoday.com

 

[Cave Man]

However, South African epidemiologists who have studied Omicron said (sorry if I'm repeating myself!) that the physical effects of this new variant is much lower than previous variants. It spreads easily but has effects more akin to the common cold (rhinovirus infection). The only people who should be concerned are those who have never been vaccinated.

It is way too early to make this assertion. The great majority of infections in South Africa are among the young adults.

 

[Gregg2]

I’ve heard about half a dozen different pronunciations of omicron. I’ve always said oh-muh-chron, not that it’s a particularly common letter. But you also hear ah-muh-chron. The British English speakers in particular seem emphasize “micron” saying ah/oh-my-chron or ah/oh-me-chron.

Well, according to Miriam Webster, the OH is more common in British English, and the AH more common in US English. However, there's been a trend recently in the US to adopt British pronunciations and grammar where it differs from the usual US way. Now, this is just by observation, not backed up by any research. I base it only on what I've heard, mostly from watching / listening to the news on TV.

Interestingly, Bill Bryson (author) claims that the "Mother Tongue" is spoken in the United States! He says that the divergence occurred in England, but I don't remember when he claimed this began to take shape. Pronunciation, in particular, changed as some people decided the new way sounded more sophisticated, and eventually caught on in the general population. I haven't tried to verify his claim.

But, I digress. However you pronounce it (and I've heard 4 ways on TV) we're dealing with it now. My hope is that Omicron is more contagious than Delta, but not as robust. It would be nice to replace the dominant strain with one that is less potent.

 

[SactoGuy18]

It is way too early to make this assertion. The great majority of infections in South Africa are among the young adults.

My big concern is with people who have never been vaccinated. Especially those who have a lack of Vitamin D in their system and have other comorbidity factors (overweight, compromised pulmonary systems, etc.).

 

[dannyyankou]

The best case scenario is if this virus is highly contagious and produces just mild cold like symptoms.

And it would be important for it to be highly contagious in that scenario because you want it to stop out Delta.

Nonetheless, I just bought a 50 pack of Honeywell N95 masks just to be safe

 

[pshufd]

The best case scenario is if this virus is highly contagious and produces just mild cold like symptoms.

And it would be important for it to be highly contagious in that scenario because you want it to stop out Delta.

Nonetheless, I just bought a 50 pack of Honeywell N95 masks just to be safe

I saw an interesting Reddit post in our area yesterday. He claimed that people were just working with COVID symptoms. Their business would otherwise shut down.

Our state made free testing kits available on Monday using Federal money. You just filled out a form on a website and Amazon would deliver them to your house. They exhausted their supply in a few days.

I think that people are just going out and doing their thing because they have no choice financially. That's why our hospitals are filling up and why we have 4% ICU spare capacity right now.

 

[400]

Re infection is a big concern it seems.

Covid: First data points to Omicron re-infection risk

Scientists in South Africa have identified a spike in the numbers catching Covid again.

www.bbc.co.uk

Links to studies in the article.
I take that as anti bodies from a previous infection are less likely to be much help much with this one. Is the vaccine on top of that the clincher?

 

[JonaM]

With every mutation from the version that gave you antibodies, either via infection or vaccination, the immune response will be less tailored to the new version. The vaccinated people seem to be showing milder symptoms which implies that the T-cell response from vaccines is good, but the antibodies are not necessarily as well matched so people get infected for a while before the T-cells fight it off. The good news here is that more boosters seem to train the immune response and T-cells better against mutations as the T-cells themselves adapt to protect against possible variants

 

[Cave Man]

Re infection is a big concern it seems.

Covid: First data points to Omicron re-infection risk

Scientists in South Africa have identified a spike in the numbers catching Covid again.

www.bbc.co.uk

Links to studies in the article.
I take that as anti bodies from a previous infection are less likely to be much help much with this one. Is the vaccine on top of that the clincher?

They will still help, but likely will bind with less affinity to the virus. Antibody binding is noncovalent - they bind, release, rebind, etc. Higher affinity antibodies stay bound longer and the longer they are bound the more effective they are. The mutations in the binding domain of omicron look to be about 7 different amino acids (among about 30 in this area) so it is not expected that antibodies from the vaccine or infection with other variants will bind with as high affinity to omicron.