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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
- Thread starter yaxomoxay
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No problem! It is hard to keep up with so many different conversations going on at once. I've made the same mistake many times, and I'm sure I will again!
Still early days but UK, show very large increase in cases today. But a few things happening behind the scenes at the mo. There has been a rush on testing.
Copy from spread sheet.
Copy from spread sheet.
This comparing of seasonal influenza to COVID-19 is absurd. Seasonal influenza A viruses have an R0 of about 1.5 in bad years and case fatality rates of well under 1%. SARS-CoV-2 has R0s of about 7 (delta) and 9 (preliminary omicron data, but probably higher). Varicella-zoster virus' (chickenpox) R0 is about 8. The overall CFR for COVID-19 in the USA was about 1.7% until the vaccines were widely distributed but it's now down to about 1.4%. Still collecting data on omicron but despite encouraging news at this point, it's still too early to determine its severity of disease.
But more concerning is the prospect of people getting simultaneously infected with both delta and omicron; this risk is a recombination event that leads to a delta/omicron hybrid that spreads like omicron, resistant to immunity like omicron, and kills like delta. That is far more worrisome to me than the potential for omicron increasing its virulence.
But more concerning is the prospect of people getting simultaneously infected with both delta and omicron; this risk is a recombination event that leads to a delta/omicron hybrid that spreads like omicron, resistant to immunity like omicron, and kills like delta. That is far more worrisome to me than the potential for omicron increasing its virulence.
Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure. We discuss implications for public health policies related to boosters, school and workplace mandates, and the urgent need to identify, develop and disseminate diagnostics and treatments for life-altering vaccine injuries.
www.researchgate.net
This is a preprint and hasn't been peer-reviewed but a read through it seems like the author is antivax.
Bio:
I am a research scientist with experience and interests in the emerging interface of neuroimaging, psychiatry, bioinformatics and computational biology. My research pursuits include the following areas: integration and meta-analyses of genetic, molecular and neuroimaging data, season of birth and neural/behavioral phenotypes, psychiatric biomarkers, intuition, spirituality and neuro/psychoinformatics.
He works in Psychiatry.
Curious what the scientists here think.
(PDF) COVID vaccination and age-stratified all-cause mortality risk
PDF | Accurate estimates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse event and death rates are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate
www.researchgate.net
This is a preprint and hasn't been peer-reviewed but a read through it seems like the author is antivax.
Bio:
I am a research scientist with experience and interests in the emerging interface of neuroimaging, psychiatry, bioinformatics and computational biology. My research pursuits include the following areas: integration and meta-analyses of genetic, molecular and neuroimaging data, season of birth and neural/behavioral phenotypes, psychiatric biomarkers, intuition, spirituality and neuro/psychoinformatics.
He works in Psychiatry.
Curious what the scientists here think.
I must admit that I am flummoxed. The vast majority of US COVID deaths are people over 65 y.o. As I understand it, this has been the case throughout the pandemic. Yet, almost 100% of this age group is now vaccinated with at least one shot. Per Forbes:
www.forbes.com
So, if vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe illness and death, it just seems like the daily deaths nation-wide would have plummeted by now. I really thought getting the older people vaccinated was the key. It‘s very confusing to me. Perhaps, someone on this thread understands why this has not happened by now. I am baffled.
Stunning Vaccine Stat: 98.5% Of U.S. Seniors Have Had Shot
The percentage of vaccinated seniors is more than 30% higher than the population overall.
www.forbes.com
So, if vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe illness and death, it just seems like the daily deaths nation-wide would have plummeted by now. I really thought getting the older people vaccinated was the key. It‘s very confusing to me. Perhaps, someone on this thread understands why this has not happened by now. I am baffled.
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I must admit that I am flummoxed. The vast majority of US COVID deaths are people over 65 y.o. As I understand it, this has been the case throughout the pandemic. Yet, almost 100% of this age group is now vaccinated with at least one shot. Per Forbes:
Stunning Vaccine Stat: 98.5% Of U.S. Seniors Have Had Shot
The percentage of vaccinated seniors is more than 30% higher than the population overall.
So, if vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe illness and death, it just seems like the daily deaths nation-wide would have plummeted by now. I really thought getting the older people vaccinated was the key. It‘s very confusing to me. Perhaps, someone on this thread understands why this has not happened by now. I am baffled.
It was. Until Delta. Numbers dropped sharply after a lot of people got vaccinated this past spring. Enough people were getting vaccinated that community transmission dropped sharply and the unvaccinated were getting some protection. Then Delta came and it went after the unvaccinated really hard. It also came after the vaccinated but the vaccinated were in much better shape if they got infected. The vaccines target the original version.
What I've heard from the hospitals in my state, which currently have 0.7% free ICU beds, is that the current patients they are seeing are younger and that about 90% of the ICU patients are unvaccinated.
In my state (Illinois), much of this is due to breakthrough infections and deaths in this age group (vaccinated elderly people). Realize, elderly have weaker immune systems and underlying conditions simply because of age. Even if vaccinated, they're much more vulnerable to the effects of COVID. And of course, if the this age group had not been so highly vaccinated, their mortality numbers would have been much, much worse.I must admit that I am flummoxed. The vast majority of US COVID deaths are people over 65 y.o. As I understand it, this has been the case throughout the pandemic. Yet, almost 100% of this age group is now vaccinated with at least one shot. Per Forbes:
Stunning Vaccine Stat: 98.5% Of U.S. Seniors Have Had Shot
The percentage of vaccinated seniors is more than 30% higher than the population overall.
So, if vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe illness and death, it just seems like the daily deaths nation-wide would have plummeted by now. I really thought getting the older people vaccinated was the key. It‘s very confusing to me. Perhaps, someone on this thread understands why this has not happened by now. I am baffled.
But, most of the deaths nation-wide are still elderly, and they are vaccinated. The response below yours shows that most of the breakthrough deaths are the elderly in Illinois. And, when I run a CDC report on daily deaths, the elderly still make up the lion share of daily deaths. I get that the elderly are more susceptible, but I am just wondering why we haven’t seen a more pronounced drop in this age group.
I guess my fear is this: while the research shows that the vaccine are effective in preventing serious illness and death in the general population, they might not be very effective for the elderly population. Which means we are kind of screwed because the majority of the problem was never really with the general population. The serious illnesses have always heavily skewed toward the elderly.
Are they boosted? The booster rate in my state is 4%. Nationally it is 15%.
I read a report about hospitals in my state and it indicated that they were seeing mostly younger adults.
According to federal data, New Hampshire hospitals aren’t just seeing a rising tide of COVID-19 patients: They’re also seeing a larger share of COVID-19 patients younger than 60 than they did this time last year.
That trend is bearing out at CMC, too. ICU Director Diane Kobrenski said a recent 50-year-old patient went from being admitted to the hospital on a Wednesday to being intubated and put on a ventilator on a Friday.
“Now he is one of our patients that are paralyzed and very very sick,” she said, “with an unknown outcome.”
Concord Monitor
The Concord Monitor is a Pulitzer Prize winning daily newspaper and website located in the capital city of New Hampshire. The Concord Monitor is Central NH's dominant media with more than 70 percent household penetration. The Monitor is a key source of news and information for Concord, NH.
www.concordmonitor.com
As a young adult...the risks outweighing the benefits...is a concern for me. Especially considering I have reacted significantly to each of my 3 shots. Each one worse than the one before it.Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure. We discuss implications for public health policies related to boosters, school and workplace mandates, and the urgent need to identify, develop and disseminate diagnostics and treatments for life-altering vaccine injuries.
(PDF) COVID vaccination and age-stratified all-cause mortality risk
PDF | Accurate estimates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse event and death rates are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate
This is a preprint and hasn't been peer-reviewed but a read through it seems like the author is antivax.
Bio:
I am a research scientist with experience and interests in the emerging interface of neuroimaging, psychiatry, bioinformatics and computational biology. My research pursuits include the following areas: integration and meta-analyses of genetic, molecular and neuroimaging data, season of birth and neural/behavioral phenotypes, psychiatric biomarkers, intuition, spirituality and neuro/psychoinformatics.
He works in Psychiatry.
Curious what the scientists here think.
So if peer-review shows any truth to this, and ONLY if this turns out to be true, I would hope to see changes made to the vaccination campaign. I would find it very difficult to support mandatory vaccination when there is an entire group of people that may actually be HARMED more by it than HELPED. But again...I want to see peer review and confirmation on this. I don't want reactions and changes made based on one opinion.
One concern though is this "research" will spread faster than the peer-review process will take. It'll damage the vaccination effort even if it's proven false.
If further research starts to back it up though...I really want to see changes made. It's one thing to mandate it when the benefits outweigh the risks. But if risks start to outweigh benefits...the game changes.
It'll be interesting to see where this goes. My ears are open.
My son's booster was worse than the first two shots. He had a bit of chest tightness and fatigue though these went away overnight. I had a sore arm and that's all but I'm older and immunocompromised.
I posted another article that was quite suspect (the journal where it was going indicated this). Only the abstract was available. I am wondering if there is money going to scientists to write research papers which never pass peer-review or which get withdrawn so that media sites can post material from the study for viewers and clicks. This article was from World Net Daily which is a Christian publication and prone to junk science. Someone posted it to one of my conservative email lists - the person posting it does not have a science background and just posted the article. No indication that it was a preprint. No indication that he even read the paper. I would just like ammunition in case this turns into a discussion.
I always thought that it was essential to vaccinate at risk population, which are the elderly and those with conditions that are susceptible to severe illness or death. Of course the benefits of vaccination to the individual drops for individuals that are less at risk. As I understand it, part of the CDC approval process involves doing a risk/benefit analysis for each group to determine if the vaccine is recommended for the particular age group. So, I would put the CDC/FDA's army of scientists and doctors well ahead of one unreviewed article by an individual with dubious credentials.
That said; while I was eager to see the older population get vaccinated, I was much more cautious about young children. Severe illness and death from COVID are extremely rare for this age group. So the risk/benefit equation looks different for kids vs the elderly. Also, I never subscribed to the notion that we need to vaccinate the young to protect the elderly. In my book, the risk/benefit for children needs to stand on its own, and protecting the elderly is a secondary benefit. In other words, we should not put children at risk to protect adults. It should work the other way around. It is my impression that the CDC did in fact look at the risk/benefit specifically to children before recommending, but I am no expert in their approval methodology.
Last point, I agree that articles like this can spread faster than more accurate research and expert response by officials. Mark Twain said something like, A lie will travel around the world and back again before the truth can gets its boots on in the morning. That was before the internet.
as I recall that website was a popular source of "information" for people who claimed that Obama wasn't really a US citizen and that his birth certificate was fake
Is it though, Greg?
Because I’d say your understanding is slanted in the wrong direction with Wisconsin. My wife was just in a virtual conference on Wednesday out of Detroit and one of the reporting doctors (Dr. Ashok Rai) in Wisconsin, this is exactly what he had to say in your current situation:
“We have the highest number of cases per 100,000 in the country as of yesterday (Dec. 15). We are the worst state in the United States when it comes to the number of cases per our population.”
Dr. Rai begging people to get vaccinated as Wisconsin leads nation in COVID cases per 100,000
Dr. Rai joined us on Action 2 News This Morning to talk about the one year anniversary of the first COVID shots in Northeast Wisconsin and why it’s so crucial people get vaccinated and boosted.
Now, that’s a doctor that’s directly quoting what’s happening in your local community, not from some mass media site. Wisconsin’s trajectory has always been on the downside, but that is absolutely staggering where they lead, with Maine and New Hampshire tailing behind.
[FYI-The video that links to that article above, will also show you a graphic indicating these top three states with identifiers.]
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Our Governor gave a presentation on where we are in NH. We have a little Federal help coming in for a couple of weeks to help out in our hospitals but our ICU capacity has typically been under 1% and hospital beds around 10%. This is with a lot of hospital capacity in MA so we have a buffer but he indicated that we are using that buffer.
We are ramping up mass booster sites but they will be set up around January 8 despite a lot of demand right now.
He was peppered with questions about masks, and lockdowns and he said that there's damage to health when we shut down our economy. We're one of the states suing to block the Federal vaccination/testing mandate. He was aggressive in 2020 but quite laid back in 2021. He had a bunch of armed protestors at his house for a few months in 2020 and the Legislature has been antivax - though they have been quiet lately with all of the people dying and our hospitals in a very dangerous condition.
The Governor expects things to get worse for about four weeks until we can get people boosted and get over the holidays.
Is it politics? Absolutely. You can see that the change in politics has moved him from being hands-on to hands-off now. It's not like the guy is stupid. He has an engineering degree from MIT.
Interesting research on the the effects of the booster.
www.bbc.co.uk
80-85% best case at the mo against Omicron but there is more info in the link. I think I understand the reference to % as that?
Research the news article cites and links to, technicals are bit above me. PDF in more detail on there as well.
www.imperial.ac.uk
edit. Corrected percentage
Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron
Preliminary estimates by researchers suggest the top-up shot should help keep many people out of hospital.
www.bbc.co.uk
Research the news article cites and links to, technicals are bit above me. PDF in more detail on there as well.
Report 48 - The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant
Report 48 The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant
edit. Corrected percentage
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Dr. Campbell's video this morning was encouraging. He had a chart of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa. It's still early but things look encouraging. One factor that's different between South Africa and the UK is that a lot of people caught it in South Africa which means that they have natural immunity. Vaccination rates in SA are lower than in UK and US.
Another difference with SA is their population is skewed very young compared to the US.
I'm hearing a lot of anecdotal stories of friends and the people they know in the NYC area testing positive for COVID in the last few days, despite 3-dose vaccination. Mild cases so far though. Assuming it's Omicron.
Also stories of doctors "privately" administering a 4th booster shot to patients who were given third shots "below the radar" 5-6 months ago.
It would be trivial to get a fourth dose these days. There are plenty of them around and you can just go out of state. I don't see the need for a third dose six months ago unless you were vaccinated in 2020.
I received an email linking to a video stating that your life will be shortened, either in the short-term or the long-term, if you get a vaccine. I clicked on it and it was along article. It appears that the antivax diet includes stating that your odds of dying from the vaccine are significant and this apparently has their followers terrified of the vaccine.
I am over 60 years old. NOT waiting around to get the vaccine and booster (got my booster last weekend).
Most of the anti-vax information borders on ridiculous. I'm okay from two full doses and one half-dose of the Moderna vaccine, so.... ?♂️