Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[jkcerda]

I'm wondering if fears of repercussions from the midterm election year are fueling the dropping of mandates, especially when there is another subvariant on the loose..

More contagious version of omicron spreads in U.S., fueling worries

The omicron BA.2 variant spreads about 30% more easily and has caused surges in other countries. Its steady increase in the U.S. raises questions about the wisdom of rolling back COVID restrictions.

www.npr.org

I'm hoping that the lifting of mandates aren't being done in haste..

BL.

midterms are coming up.

 

[Mainsail]

For those that believe that merely questioning CDC guidance and data is reckless and dangerous to the community:

New CDC Covid-19 metrics drop strong mask recommendations for most of the country | CNN

Most people in the United States live in areas where those who are healthy do not need to wear masks indoors, according to new US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance -- a sweeping change from what earlier Covid-19 metrics recommended.

www.cnn.com

While I think these changes are appropriate, I seriously doubt that this would have happened if blue state governors hadn't change their masking guidance. As much as we want to keep politics out of science and public health policy, it keeps creeping back in.

 

[bradl]

For those that believe that merely questioning CDC guidance and data is reckless and dangerous to the community:

New CDC Covid-19 metrics drop strong mask recommendations for most of the country | CNN

Most people in the United States live in areas where those who are healthy do not need to wear masks indoors, according to new US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance -- a sweeping change from what earlier Covid-19 metrics recommended.

www.cnn.com

While I think these changes are appropriate, I seriously doubt that this would have happened if blue state governors hadn't change their masking guidance. As much as we want to keep politics out of science and public health policy, it keeps creeping back in.

Trying hard not to go PRSI on this, but there are a couple of things in this post that are a bit of a double standard that is being ignored and/or swept under the rug.

One of which is that the thought that science must always be static, because that is further from the truth. Science is fluid and constantly changing; case in point: Pluto is no longer the 9th planet, thanks to Haumea, Makemake, Eris, and Ceres. We've added how many new elements to the periodic table? and how many different strains for the flu shot are being used now?

Science is definitely fluid, along with what the CDC has to say about any type of virus or variation of a virus that is discovered. The belief that that should always be static is a problem that hasn't started in states mentioned above whose executive branch is of a certain party. That belief need to be re-examined, along with the belief that the CDC's guidance is "reckless and dangerous".

It certainly wasn't reckless when that same CDC issued guidelines for SARs, H1N1, H5N1, Avian Bird, and Swine flus.

BL.

 

[pshufd]

Trying hard not to go PRSI on this, but there are a couple of things in this post that are a bit of a double standard that is being ignored and/or swept under the rug.

One of which is that the thought that science must always be static, because that is further from the truth. Science is fluid and constantly changing; case in point: Pluto is no longer the 9th planet, thanks to Haumea, Makemake, Eris, and Ceres. We've added how many new elements to the periodic table? and how many different strains for the flu shot are being used now?

Science is definitely fluid, along with what the CDC has to say about any type of virus or variation of a virus that is discovered. The belief that that should always be static is a problem that hasn't started in states mentioned above whose executive branch is of a certain party. That belief need to be re-examined, along with the belief that the CDC's guidance is "reckless and dangerous".

It certainly wasn't reckless when that same CDC issued guidelines for SARs, H1N1, H5N1, Avian Bird, and Swine flus.

My homepage link to this forum is PSRI because that's what it was before PSRI went away.

I recall a paper basically stating that performance per watt wasn't any better with ARM compared to x86. And that was the science back then. And then Apple announced M1.

There has been decades of science that said that KRAS G12D is undruggable (it's a very common cancer mutation that science has been trying to treat for many decades), and I just learned that we now have inhibitors for it. KRAS mutations account for almost 30% of human cancers and G12D is the most common mutation. So the science on this common mutation has changed.

There's been a lot of criticism of the CDC on the CDC's changing guidance on COVID but they were talking about different mutations which had vastly different behaviors yet the criticisms were as if COVID was monolithic.

 

[bradl]

My homepage link to this forum is PSRI because that's what it was before PSRI went away.

I recall a paper basically stating that performance per watt wasn't any better with ARM compared to x86. And that was the science back then. And then Apple announced M1.

There has been decades of science that said that KRAS G12D is undruggable (it's a very common cancer mutation that science has been trying to treat for many decades), and I just learned that we now have inhibitors for it. KRAS mutations account for almost 30% of human cancers and G12D is the most common mutation. So the science on this common mutation has changed.

There's been a lot of criticism of the CDC on the CDC's changing guidance on COVID but they were talking about different mutations which had vastly different behaviors yet the criticisms were as if COVID was monolithic.

Exactly. It isn't the fault of the CDC that the people are not able to change their thinking to be as fluid as the data that the CDC uses. In fact, that inability to change their thinking to be more fluid as the virus has been is what has contributed to the prolonging of the pandemic.

BL.

 

[Mainsail]

Trying hard not to go PRSI on this, but there are a couple of things in this post that are a bit of a double standard that is being ignored and/or swept under the rug.

One of which is that the thought that science must always be static, because that is further from the truth. Science is fluid and constantly changing; case in point: Pluto is no longer the 9th planet, thanks to Haumea, Makemake, Eris, and Ceres. We've added how many new elements to the periodic table? and how many different strains for the flu shot are being used now?

Science is definitely fluid, along with what the CDC has to say about any type of virus or variation of a virus that is discovered. The belief that that should always be static is a problem that hasn't started in states mentioned above whose executive branch is of a certain party. That belief need to be re-examined, along with the belief that the CDC's guidance is "reckless and dangerous".

It certainly wasn't reckless when that same CDC issued guidelines for SARs, H1N1, H5N1, Avian Bird, and Swine flus.

BL.

Yes, science isn't static. Which is the reason we should be able to question guidance without being accused of being anti-science, or selfish, or reckless. Also, you would have to be pretty naive to believe these changes were driven first by pure science rather than the politics of changing blue state masking guidance. The CDC had to do something because they were basically being ignored.

While I think this guidance is better than the previous, if you look at the Powerpoint, there are still some lingering issues. The community indicator table includes a metric for new hospital admissions with COVID. The problem is that we now know that, during Omicron, a significant percentage of new hospital admissions with COVID were incidental. So, this particular metric may simply become a surrogate for community transmission, which is the measure from which CDC is trying to move away. Anyway, we will have to see how this all works out in practice. I suspect that most states will be reluctant to change their guidance right away to comport with this new CDC guidelines. Too much public whiplash.

Edit: Just 10 days ago in California, they eliminated indoor mask mandates state-wide and almost every county has adopted the state guidelines. If you look at the CDC's chart, a fair number of these counties would have to go back to indoor masking. I seriously doubt that is going to happen without major push back at both the state and county levels. Like I said, too much public policy whiplash.

 

[bradl]

Yes, science isn't static. Which is the reason we should be able to question guidance without being accused of being anti-science, or selfish, or reckless. Also, you would have to be pretty naive to believe these changes were driven first by pure science rather than the politics of changing blue state masking guidance. The CDC had to do something because they were basically being ignored.

Thank you for proving my point.

While I think this guidance is better than the previous, if you look at the Powerpoint, there are still some lingering issues. The community indicator table includes a metric for new hospital admissions with COVID. The problem is that we now know that, during Omicron, a significant percentage of new hospital admissions with COVID were incidental. So, this particular metric may simply become a surrogate for community transmission, which is the measure from which CDC is trying to move away. Anyway, we will have to see how this all works out in practice. I suspect that most states will be reluctant to change their guidance right away to comport with this new CDC guidelines. Too much public whiplash.

Edit: Just 10 days ago in California, they eliminated indoor mask mandates state-wide and almost every county has adopted the state guidelines. If you look at the CDC's chart, a fair number of these counties would have to go back to indoor masking. I seriously doubt that is going to happen without major push back at both the state and county levels. Like I said, too much public policy whiplash.

They would have had to go back to them because with other Red states also dropping mandates, while being completely naive of new variants starting to spread, everyone would have to go back to them... yet you only single out blue states, while giving red states a pass. That is what I was alluding to, and the double standard.

Regardless, the next step of complaining will be when everyone has to mask up again due to those new variants, and those people complaining again about them being "reckless and dangerous" because those guidelines can't stay static... the very reason they complained to begin with, without realizing that the science and data is fluid.

BL.

 

[Mainsail]

Thank you for proving my point.



They would have had to go back to them because with other Red states also dropping mandates, while being completely naive of new variants starting to spread, everyone would have to go back to them... yet you only single out blue states, while giving red states a pass. That is what I was alluding to, and the double standard.

Regardless, the next step of complaining will be when everyone has to mask up again due to those new variants, and those people complaining again about them being "reckless and dangerous" because those guidelines can't stay static... the very reason they complained to begin with, without realizing that the science and data is fluid.

BL.

Ok. So, we agree that the CDC is not operating from purely scientific motives. They were influenced by the politics of the situation and the fact that their existing guidance was basically being ignored. Which means this isn't just about the science changing.

I bring up California because I happen to live in that state. I am not picking on blue states. Others folks have posted the situation in their state. I suspect that most states (red and blue) are going to ignore this new guidance because of the whiplash issue that I mentioned. Also, I personally believe the CDC has lost a lot of credibility...e.g. "Noble Lies".

BTW - My comments related to "reckless and dangerous" were not directed toward changing CDC guidelines. My comments were directed to folks who get indignant when I merely question the logic and inconsistencies of the guidance and try to tell me that the process of questioning is reckless and dangerous.

 

[iOS Geek]

Ok. So, we agree that the CDC is not operating from purely scientific motives. They were influenced by the politics of the situation and the fact that their existing guidance was basically being ignored. Which means this isn't just about the science changing.

I bring up California because I happen to live in that state. I am not picking on blue states. Others folks have posted the situation in their state. I suspect that most states (red and blue) are going to ignore this new guidance because of the whiplash issue that I mentioned. Also, I personally believe the CDC has lost a lot of credibility...e.g. "Noble Lies".

BTW - My comments related to "reckless and dangerous" were not directed toward changing CDC guidelines. My comments were directed to folks who get indignant when I merely question the logic and inconsistencies of the guidance and try to tell me that the process of questioning is reckless and dangerous.

I’m in Illinois. All of the northern portion of the state is in the CDC’s new “low” category. Our mask mandates end Monday (including for schools*). I’d have to look at the map again, but the rest of the state was in the “mid” category (yellow). There may have been a few counties that are still in the “high” category, but I’d have to look back at it. For the most part, our mask mandate ending pretty much lines up with the CDC guidance.

*The school mandate is ending because it was blocked by a judge in Springfield. The governor filed an appeal to the state Supreme Court, which today said they refused the appeal.

 

[pshufd]

I’m in Illinois. All of the northern portion of the state is in the CDC’s new “low” category. Our mask mandates end Monday (including for schools*). I’d have to look at the map again, but the rest of the state was in the “mid” category (yellow). There may have been a few counties that are still in the “high” category, but I’d have to look back at it. For the most part, our mask mandate ending pretty much lines up with the CDC guidance.

*The school mandate is ending because it was blocked by a judge in Springfield. The governor filed an appeal to the state Supreme Court, which today said they refused the appeal.

I just had a look at the map and most of it is red. Our county is red though the number of active cases has dropped by 90%. So is that map accurate or does it use a moving average in its analysis and we need to wait a week for the current numbers to show up?

We never had school mandates at the state level. It was up to the cities and towns themselves though the state provided a lot of assistance to the cities and towns to make and implement their decisions. Many schools were fluid on mandates.

I think that government officials had a much harder time with the politicization of COVID.

 

[iOS Geek]

I just had a look at the map and most of it is red. Our county is red though the number of active cases has dropped by 90%. So is that map accurate or does it use a moving average in its analysis and we need to wait a week for the current numbers to show up?

We never had school mandates at the state level. It was up to the cities and towns themselves though the state provided a lot of assistance to the cities and towns to make and implement their decisions. Many schools were fluid on mandates.

I think that government officials had a much harder time with the politicization of COVID.

Wherever you’re looking may not be updated yet. If you scroll down a bit in this article, there’s an image of the new map that I saw. (Worth noting I haven’t looked on the CDC website yet, so the one in this article is the only one I’ve seen so far). It’s an LA Times article, so of course there’s a focus on California here. So the California numbers weren’t of much use to me in Illinois. But the map was what I wanted to see.

Coronavirus Today: What the CDC's new mask guidance means — Los Angeles Times

As you read this, 63% of counties are deemed safe enough by the CDC to make indoor masking optional. Those counties are home to 72% of Americans.

apple.news

 

[pshufd]

Wherever you’re looking may not be updated yet. If you scroll down a bit in this article, there’s an image of the new map that I saw. (Worth noting I haven’t looked on the CDC website yet, so the one in this article is the only one I’ve seen so far).

Coronavirus Today: What the CDC's new mask guidance means — Los Angeles Times

As you read this, 63% of counties are deemed safe enough by the CDC to make indoor masking optional. Those counties are home to 72% of Americans.

apple.news

This is what I looked at. It looks a lot scarier than the chart in your link.

 

[Mainsail]

This is what I looked at. It looks a lot scarier than the chart in your link.

View attachment 1965131

That’s the old chart based on transmission rather than hospitalizations.

 

[pshufd]

That’s the old chart based on transmission rather than hospitalizations.

I just went to their data page and that's what is there. I looked around for the hospitalization map and couldn't find it.

I don't even know if the community transmission chart is right as it's supposed to b WoW data and our cases have dropped sharpy for the past two weeks.

 

[bradl]

Ok. So, we agree that the CDC is not operating from purely scientific motives. They were influenced by the politics of the situation and the fact that their existing guidance was basically being ignored. Which means this isn't just about the science changing.

No. You are drawing that conclusion based on what things that people think should be staying static, not fluid, and then trying to include others into that thinking, let alone blaming the CDC in being wrong due to the fluidity of the data with the virus. That is a fault of your reasoning, not the CDC.

And if you're wanting to shift the blame onto the governors of those Blue states again, you're still neglecting and ignoring those same Red states that were doing the same; in short, giving those Red states a pass while harping on the Blue states. Hence, the double standard alluded to earlier.

I bring up California because I happen to live in that state. I am not picking on blue states. Others folks have posted the situation in their state. I suspect that most states (red and blue) are going to ignore this new guidance because of the whiplash issue that I mentioned. Also, I personally believe the CDC has lost a lot of credibility...e.g. "Noble Lies".

I live in California as well. Yet you single out Blue states, while not mentioning that the same lifting of mandates happened in Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. I know that firsthand; I spent the past 30 days between all six of those states and seeing different mandates and dropping of mandates completely opposite of what those Blue states have done, yet no arguing about them has occurred.

So where is the blame to those Red states, outside of completely non-existent? Again, the double standard.

BTW - My comments related to "reckless and dangerous" were not directed toward changing CDC guidelines. My comments were directed to folks who get indignant when I merely question the logic and inconsistencies of the guidance and try to tell me that the process of questioning is reckless and dangerous.

The opposite is also congruent; when those who call out the inconsistencies of the logic your side has, yet get completely indignant over having that logic questioned. That is the point.

BL.

 

[Mainsail]

I just went to their data page and that's what is there. I looked around for the hospitalization map and couldn't find it.

I don't even know if the community transmission chart is right as it's supposed to b WoW data and our cases have dropped sharpy for the past two weeks.

Here is the CDC link. It has a map of the US that is clickable. Also, you can select your state and county and see the status.

COVID by County

COVID-19 Community Levels help you decide your prevention steps.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Mainsail]

No. You are drawing that conclusion based on what things that people think should be staying static, not fluid, and then trying to include others into that thinking, let alone blaming the CDC in being wrong due to the fluidity of the data with the virus. That is a fault of your reasoning, not the CDC.

And if you're wanting to shift the blame onto the governors of those Blue states again, you're still neglecting and ignoring those same Red states that were doing the same; in short, giving those Red states a pass while harping on the Blue states. Hence, the double standard alluded to earlier.



I live in California as well. Yet you single out Blue states, while not mentioning that the same lifting of mandates happened in Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. I know that firsthand; I spent the past 30 days between all six of those states and seeing different mandates and dropping of mandates completely opposite of what those Blue states have done, yet no arguing about them has occurred.

So where is the blame to those Red states, outside of completely non-existent? Again, the double standard.



The opposite is also congruent; when those who call out the inconsistencies of the logic your side has, yet get completely indignant over having that logic questioned. That is the point.

BL.

The red states have been ignoring CDC guidance since practically day one. We all know that. Nothing new. But, when the blue states dropped the guidance, it put a huge amount of pressure on the CDC to change. At this point, essentially every state in the country was ignoring the CDC's indoor masking guidelines. So, the CDC had to do something. Just watch the incredibly awkward response from the CDC director when reporters asked her if people should be following their state guidelines or the CDC guidelines. If you don't think the CDC noticed that their guidelines had become irrelevant, and that even the states that had been complying in the past had jumped ship, then fine......we will have to agree to disagree. If you do not believe that this influence their actions, then again fine...we will have to just agree to disagree.

As for your last point, what is "my side"? You seem to be making some assumptions. My entire family is vaccinated and boosted, including myself. We have faithfully followed all masking and testing requirements in our state and county, which was one of the strictest in the country. But, that doesn't mean that we can't call out the CDC when they withhold information (ref: NYTimes article about boosters) or issue guidance that seems illogical or conflicting.

BTW - I don't feel the need to call out every crazy anti-vaxer with a COVID conspiracy theory because they have no official role. The CDC does have an official role, and their guidelines impact our lives. I believe we hold organizations like the CDC and government officials to a higher standard that must be credible, transparent, and stand-up to scrutiny. In fact, scrutiny is healthy for a government agency.

 

[pshufd]

Our current cases numbers are down another 33% from last week. Hospitals look a lot better. Mask use in stores is about 30% by my estimation.

We have an official active case count of 1,045 right now for the entire state. Everything is open as far as I can tell. There are 11 cases in my town of 28,000 so things are back to as close to normal as I expect to get to.

 

[Huntn]

Ok. So, we agree that the CDC is not operating from purely scientific motives. They were influenced by the politics of the situation and the fact that their existing guidance was basically being ignored. Which means this isn't just about the science changing.

I bring up California because I happen to live in that state. I am not picking on blue states. Others folks have posted the situation in their state. I suspect that most states (red and blue) are going to ignore this new guidance because of the whiplash issue that I mentioned. Also, I personally believe the CDC has lost a lot of credibility...e.g. "Noble Lies".

BTW - My comments related to "reckless and dangerous" were not directed toward changing CDC guidelines. My comments were directed to folks who get indignant when I merely question the logic and inconsistencies of the guidance and try to tell me that the process of questioning is reckless and dangerous.

It depends what you mean by political, right vs left, or trying to convince the sheep to cooperate? ?

 

[Mainsail]

It depends what you mean by political, right vs left, or trying to convince the sheep to cooperate? ?

One of the unfortunate things about this pandemic has been how politics (both right and left) have influenced peoples perception of risk. There was a study that showed that people that identified as Republicans were much more likely to underestimate the risk of COVID, and people that identified as Democrat were much more likely to overestimate the risk. In other words, the narrative of their political parties influenced their perception of the science.

This was not helped when a Republican president admitted he intentional downplayed the risk. And then there were the whacky right-wing anti-tax conspiracy theories.

On the other hand, it was also not helpful when government officials admitted to withholding information about booster efficacy and published masking efficacy data that was misleading....which supported a narrative about virtuous community compliance. A narrative largely adopted by the left.

In my view, both sides are to blame for dragging this thing into politics and damaging the credibility of our institutions. My greatest disappointment is with the misleading information from the public health officials. I don't expect much from politicians (both sides), they are going to exaggerate and tell half-truths to pander to their constituents. But, I expected more from the CDC and other health officials. When this is behind us, I suspect there will be numerous (hopefully objective) studies on this subject and how it could have been better handled from both the science and communications standpoint. Lessons learned. I am sure we could have all done better.

 

[Cave Man]

In my view, both sides are to blame for dragging this thing into politics and damaging the credibility of our institutions.

This is a false equivalence. The damage done by the right/conservatives has been far greater than anything done by the left/liberals.

The CDC was the best public health institution in the world until Bush 2 appointed Julie Gerberding to run it in 2002. Her first action was to replace all the PhD scientists that ran most of the branches with MD clinicians, nearly all of whom had no idea how to do or interpret public health math and statistics. The result was a mass exodus of expertise from the CDC and it never recovered from that disaster.

 

[iOS Geek]

Interesting development here in Illinois (though it is not "new" news anymore. It was announced last week). Our director of public health is resigning on the 14th. Not sure of the reasoning why...I don't think anything has been specifically mentioned in that regard.

 

[iOS Geek]

This is a false equivalence. The damage done by the right/conservatives has been far greater than anything done by the left/liberals.

This is not the defense that you might think it is. "They did it worse than me" is an excuse my 7 year old would come up with if she got in trouble. Someone else causing more damage doesn't justify the damage you caused. From my perspective working in healthcare...there is absolutely no place for damage caused by ANYONE. I don't care about who did it "worse". Damage is damage in this situation. Whether it was the right "minimizing" the issue...or the left "over exaggerating" (I've run into a shockingly large amount of people who really believe that catching COVID means you are GUARANTEED to be hospitalized, put on a ventilator, and die. That didn't come from the right...).

I have plenty more to say on the subject, but as this is not meant to be a political thread, I'm better off shutting up.

 

[Richard8655]

This is not the defense that you might think it is. "They did it worse than me" is an excuse my 7 year old would come up with if she got in trouble. Someone else causing more damage doesn't justify the damage you caused. From my perspective working in healthcare...there is absolutely no place for damage caused by ANYONE. I don't care about who did it "worse". Damage is damage in this situation. Whether it was the right "minimizing" the issue...or the left "over exaggerating" (I've run into a shockingly large amount of people who really believe that catching COVID means you are GUARANTEED to be hospitalized, put on a ventilator, and die. That didn't come from the right...).

I have plenty more to say on the subject, but as this is not meant to be a political thread, I'm better off shutting up.

Touting that one works in healthcare doesn't make for any more of an expert in the root causes of maladministration that had contributed to the problem. The CDC was indeed neutered with leaders forced to tacitly accept injecting bleach and unproven drugs such as hydroxychloroquine, which likely delayed effective implementation of proven solutions.

 

[Mainsail]

Touting that one works in healthcare doesn't make for any more of an expert in the root causes of maladministration that had contributed to the problem. The CDC was indeed neutered with leaders forced to tacitly accept injecting bleach and unproven drugs such as hydroxychloroquine, which likely delayed effective implementation of proven solutions.

Here are all just a few unforced errors by our health and government officials.

CDC and Health Officials Credibility Issues
Nobel Lies, see: noble-lies-are-a-public-health-hazard
Misleading Data on Booster efficacy: covid-cdc-data.html
Misleading Data on masking efficacy:

Flip flopping on policies

Government Officials' Hypocrisy
French Laundry
Attending social events unmasked in Florida
"Holding your breath" as an excuse for going unmasked at the Super Bowl
Photo ops unmasked with school kids

In no way am I suggesting that the above excuses some of the ridiculous unsubstantiated claims that came out of the right.

However, I am particularly disappointed in the misleading information from health officials. Why? Because I hold the health care profession in high regard. I don't expect anything from social media whack-a-doodles. Those bozos have no official role. On the other hand, HC officials have an essential and official role. They need to be credible.

Unfortunately, some HC officials got wrapped-up in the narrative rather than scientific objectivity. Let's not waste time defending it. Let's spend time learning from it so we do better in the future.