Decline in iPhone Shipments Could Make Apple Worst-Performing Top Five Smartphone Brand of 2016

[Jax44]

So he predicts as low as 190 Million iPhones sold in Fiscal Year 2016.

Apple sold 74.8 million in Q1.
Low estimates are 50 million in Q2.

So he expects 65 million sold in Q3 & Q4 combined.

Q3 2015: 47.53
Q4 2015: 48.05

The tough compare to Q2 2015 is due to the massive demand for iPhone 6 which constrained supplies into Q2. This is somewhat of an anomaly.

Q2 2012: 35.06
Q2 2013: 37.43
Q2 2014: 43.72
Q2 2015: 61.17

 

[Urban Joe]

So, markets evolve. Markets are made up of people. People evolve. Could it be that people are getting bored with staring into their smartphone constantly? Could it be that people are realizing that deep satisfaction in life is not found in being infatuated with technology? After going through so many upgrade cycles maybe people are realizing that the incremental updates are not nearly worth the price given the basic experience is relatively unchanged. Given all the speculations there's no updates on the horizon that are getting people excited. So, more people are more than willing to wait and get more utility out of their existing devices rather than burning through cash to have a marginally better experience.

 

[I7guy]

Given that Kuo's "best case" scenario is below the low end of the range, I'm guessing it will have an impact. I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I understand how financial analysis works. Kuo previously was optimistic that the iPhone 7 would boost sales and must have some inside source that the iPhone 7 is more like an "iPhone 6S-S", and so his hoped-for sales improvement will at best be delayed until 2017. The obvious risk is that Apple loses high-end customers to Samsung and Huawei and doesn't get them back in 2017.

This risk has been there since the s5. I spent some time with an s7 edge and it's Samsung's best to date, but I couldn't find a reason to "jump ship".

Maybe I'm in the minority, in which case apple loses a lot of customers, or people are thinking like me, in which case people will stay with apple and upgrade. Either way nobody knows.

 

[jujufreeze]

So, markets evolve. Markets are made up of people. People evolve. Could it be that people are getting bored with staring into their smartphone constantly? Could it be that people are realizing that deep satisfaction in life is not found in being infatuated with technology? After going through so many upgrade cycles maybe people are realizing that the incremental updates are not nearly worth the price given the basic experience is relatively unchanged. Given all the speculations there's no updates on the horizon that are getting people excited. So, more people are more than willing to wait and get more utility out of their existing devices rather than burning through cash to have a marginally better experience.

The real issue is market saturation. As Moore's law continues, existing tech gets cheaper and cheaper, phones do everything people want. Unless we have solar powered endless battery, we aren't gonna pay $900 for a new phone every year when a $500 phone does the same thing with the same features and lasts several years.

 

[Manzzle]

I think they forget that most people view their cell phones as a piece of fashion tech accessory that you wish to have the latest new looking one each year.

No one really cares that the home button reads the fingerprint way too fast that you can no longer tap it to see the time without unlocking the phone (something that really annoys me). Like I remember with the iPhone 6 when I was playing music with my wireless headphones I could click the home button to see the time and click it again to turn the music control part of the upper screen to show the time in big font, all without unlocking the phone. Not with the 6S, as soon as it click it, it unlocks.

By the sound of it if folks have the iPhone 6S and +, they should just wait till the iPhone 8 to come out. From what I've been reading it looks like Apple will not be making an S model for the iPhone 7.

They only reason why I'd buy the iPhone 7 at this point, is for resell value in time for the 8. When the iPhone 8 comes out I'm sure you'll lose like $300 for a near mint phone with box and all accessories, trying to see the 6S on eBay.

 

[ColdShadow]

It's a phone at this point there's not much you can do with the design.

there is ALOT that they can do to design something iconic,beautiful and unique..they are so far from being so at the monent.

I want better hardware and software. Really, what I want is the Samsung Galaxy with iOS..

thats exactly what I want.
I previously owned iPhones including iPhone 6,and now I own a Galaxy Note 5.
there is no question currently Samsung has superior design and more advanced superior hardware vs Apple.the screen puts iPhone 6s to shame inmediately.
however I dislike android with passion.iOS is definitelly a better mobile OS.
so yeah if only Apple could make iPhones hardware and design on par with Samsung S6/S7/Note 5 level..

 

[allanfries]

When the world is saturated with iPhones, sales are bound to slow down. Derp

 

[Jakexb]

I think they forget that most people view their cell phones as a piece of fashion tech accessory that you wish to have the latest new looking one each year.

No one really cares that the home button reads the fingerprint way too fast that you can no longer tap it to see the time without unlocking the phone (something that really annoys me). Like I remember with the iPhone 6 when I was playing music with my wireless headphones I could click the home button to see the time and click it again to turn the music control part of the upper screen to show the time in big font, all without unlocking the phone. Not with the 6S, as soon as it click it, it unlocks.

By the sound of it if folks have the iPhone 6S and +, they should just wait till the iPhone 8 to come out. From what I've been reading it looks like Apple will not be making an S model for the iPhone 7.

They only reason why I'd buy the iPhone 7 at this point, is for resell value in time for the 8. When the iPhone 8 comes out I'm sure you'll lose like $300 for a near mint phone with box and all accessories, trying to see the 6S on eBay.

I just recently trained myself to hit the power button to see lock screen, but hit the home button if I want to do something. It works pretty well.

 

[jujufreeze]

When the world is saturated with iPhones, sales are bound to slow down. Derp

Saturated with android phones/iphones. As a 6s+ owner I admit to lusting after an edge from time to time. The edge would be cheaper than my iphone and unless Apple ups its game with Jobs-esque innovations (Get rid of the bezels for one?) my iphone loyalty's confused. I can't justify spending as much on my next iphone with last year's features and I already plan on keeping my 6s+ for a very, very long time.

 

[Gooberton]

The Galaxy S7 Edge would definitely tempt me over an iPhone 6s Plus if I didn't already own the iPhone. Curved screen, OLED display, better camera, waterproofing etc.

Yea, prob is no iMessage, no Apple Eco system no iOS. I tried it for 3 weeks , Huge fail

 

[dfgddikf]

A 16GB model is ridiculous at any price.

I don't think there will be new 16GB devices. iPhone 7 will be 32/128/256 like the iPad Pro - also with the same $100 higher baseprice to offset declining sales.

 

[952863]

I'm sensing both a fan and a shareholder. no?

Yea, I'm a shareholder. Do you know where I live? Do you know my favourite food Ms. Cleo?

I guess most people are happy owning one iPhone.

LOL not on this site. I'm most definitely surprised people own Apple products on this site. And, the ones that do, hate it. All they do is complain, complain, and complain. Eek.

 

[CFreymarc]

Ming-Chi Kuo .... Enough said
What a load of .........

I do wish people would stop quoting him

Love to see if he is shorting Apple stock via an international proxy broker.

 

[I7guy]

The real issue is market saturation. As Moore's law continues, existing tech gets cheaper and cheaper, phones do everything people want. Unless we have solar powered endless battery, we aren't gonna pay $900 for a new phone every year when a $500 phone does the same thing with the same features and lasts several years.

This is where a car analogy is very apt. I don't know that the masses will do, but I will evaluate the iPhone 7 at the time it's released. Im not buying 2 mid-tier android phones or going to Samsung.

 

[sofila]

Given the last iPad iterations, I don't see lower price for iPhones in near future

 

[macfacts]

... Like I remember with the iPhone 6 when I was playing music with my wireless headphones I could click the home button to see the time and click it again to turn the music control part of the upper screen to show the time in big font, all without unlocking the phone. Not with the 6S, as soon as it click it, it unlocks.

When the iphone starts using OLED screens, Apple will copy the double tap on screen to turn on feature.

 

[Mr. Dee]

Apple needs to make some simple modifications:
1. Entry level model iPhone 7 32 GB
2. Drop the price by $100
3. Include OIS on all models

If Apple does that, even some 6s users would upgrade. Not me though, since I am happy with my 6s and money doesn't grow on trees.

 

[jamezr]

IMO Apple has peaked and its very slowly starting decline in all aspects (sales, brand, image, value... etc).

Apple is will be forced to start to lower their prices of the iphones (probably starting with the 7S next year), IF they want YoY growth. Just like they are lowering Apple Watch prices...

The problem is clearly that Apple is not innovating as strong as they used to do and the clearly the competition is as good if not better (often at much lower prices)! To be honest it is becoming harder and harder to bring big innovations into the smartphone market and that makes it more difficult for Apple to justify the USD 700 base price for the 16GB model.

I don't believe that Tim Cook has the same risk attitude as Steve Jobs had, when he successfully ventured into completely new product categories (like the ipod, itunes, iphone, ipad etc). And what Apple needs now is to go into a completely new product category that can change everything and make that new product a high-margin star product, while the iphone/ipads can become the lower margin (=cheaper) mass-market cash-cow products.

I think you bring up some good points. Apple needs to innovate more...they have gotten away from bringing design and features you can't find anywhere else.The iPhone 7 needs to bring something big....but rumors are it will be a small upgrade. Apple choosing to wait until 2017 to bring true upgrades to the iphone lineup on the ten year anniversary of the iphone.

 

[HiVolt]

Selling Apple short - after all, they do let you change the wallpaper.

Yeah, and they magically move around when you tilt the phone.. whoopee. Had that BS disabled since they day they introduced it as a "feature".

 

[Fenez]

Cell phones have matured to the point where no matter which phone you buy they all do the same thing, aside from being entrenched in a particular eco system the platforms have moved towards each other and with every iteration they move closer and closer to the same thing. People who are staunch fans of either platform will list things that they claim are so so different, but in reality it's all the same thing. Almost anyone can pickup any device and use it with no problem. With that being said, it's not easy to make people upgrade year after year when the upgraded aren't ground breaking any longer.

 

[dfgddikf]

I think you bring up some good points. Apple needs to innovate more...they have gotten away from bringing design and features you can't find anywhere else.The iPhone 7 needs to bring something big....but rumors are it will be a small upgrade. Apple choosing to wait until 2017 to bring true upgrades to the iphone lineup on the ten year anniversary of the iphone.

Not just the iPhone 7. Now that they have released "Pro" iPads which are held back by iOS 9s lacking tablet features, iOS 10 has to deliver. If iOS 10 doesn't become more useful (file system or some workaround), I won't buy another iPad. And an iPhone as the only Apple device doesn't make much sense...

 

[KPOM]

This risk has been there since the s5. I spent some time with an s7 edge and it's Samsung's best to date, but I couldn't find a reason to "jump ship".

Maybe I'm in the minority, in which case apple loses a lot of customers, or people are thinking like me, in which case people will stay with apple and upgrade. Either way nobody knows.

Possibly, but the S5 sold worse than the S4, and Samsung got the mix wrong between the S6 and S6 Edge, so neither wound up being significant threats to the iPhone. Gimmicky or not, the Edge screen seems to be popular. Apple has to know that. Given that they just reportedly inked a supply deal with Samsung, my guess is that negotiations took too long to incorporate it into the 2016 iPhone.
[doublepost=1461533457][/doublepost]

Not just the iPhone 7. Now that they have released "Pro" iPads which are held back by iOS 9s lacking tablet features, iOS 10 has to deliver. If iOS 10 doesn't become more useful (file system or some workaround), I won't buy another iPad. And an iPhone as the only Apple device doesn't make much sense...

iCloud and other cloud service integration is the file system "workaround." iOS is not going to get a full-blown OS X-style file system. My guess is that iOS 10 will focus more on better communication between applications and multitasking (perhaps allowing two instances of the same app so that users can have two Word or Pages documents side by side).

 

[admob71]

When the iphone starts using OLED screens, Apple will copy the double tap on screen to turn on feature.

Copy? How dare you, they will reinvent the feature and give it some snazzy name..

 

[freddiecable]

I think it's quite obvious that iPhone is getting a bit stale. How Apple worked the iPod was a much better game - total diversification owning - actually crushing - the market. Amazingly stupid of them to release an SE with the same hardware design as 4 generations previous. The market is mature - diversify AND entice people with brilliant hardware design. That's what they did with iPods. No one could compete. Until the iPhone came along and rendered iPods obsolete.

 

[KPOM]

I don't believe that Tim Cook has the same risk attitude as Steve Jobs had, when he successfully ventured into completely new product categories (like the ipod, itunes, iphone, ipad etc). And what Apple needs now is to go into a completely new product category that can change everything and make that new product a high-margin star product, while the iphone/ipads can become the lower margin (=cheaper) mass-market cash-cow products.

If Apple is going into cars, that takes a huge risk appetite since it is a mature market subject to substantial government regulation (far more so than the businesses they are in now).