Gonna be a bust?

[technosix]

Apple now having grown into this giant corporate profit machine, no longer faces risks of any significant consequences.

They are free to build anything they like. Manipulating the public perception as they do with great skill and finesse, resulting in a self proclaimed successful new product.

The buyers are eager to brag how wonderful it is, just like Apple. You end up with Apple in complete control as always and buyers going along for the ride.

There's no stopping Apple at this point, they've crested the hill and are coasting easily. The only downside is we get buggy software like iOS 8 because Apple has us locked in. We can only wait.

Apple's never been in a better position.

 

[ksuyen]

Point is, when you get used to do stuff that is EASIER to do on the watch than on your phone you are gonna have a hard time to go back to only use your phone.

The same point that I have had hard time convincing people in any forums. I have stated the same thing again and again, that Apple is genius. What they sell is not just a product with this spec and that features and this functions. What they sell is user experience. Once you experience the "easier" way to do things, it becomes a convenient habit, and you won't go back to the old way.

 

[McDaddio]

You TELL me, the homescreen on the Apple Watch looks good to you with all those little circular bubbles on a, basically, rectangular watchface? Maybe YOU just don't 'get' it.

Maybe you should study the Lichendorf design principles of the late 1930s and you would understand the essence of the circular elements on a rectangular surface.

Geesh, don't people learn stuff anymore in high school?

 

[Infinitewisdom]

I think there will be an initial buying frenzy as per usual. Not up to Phone standards, but enough to make TV news, and see people showing them off to the Camera.

Initially there will be excitement wearing it, playing and fiddling, showing your friends what you have, and playing with the new novel features.

Personally, I think sales will slow reasonably quickly, not stop, but I think there will be a general slow down simply because not everyone who is into Apple actually will want one.

Likewise, it's only a subset of actual iPhone users can actually make use of it at all.

Its a non seller to everyone else.

This may not matter, and I'm sure Apple expects sales to be a little dulled after a while.

What will be interesting I think is what percentage of owners will still be charging and wearing the watch months later.

I honestly think there will be a fall off in this department as a percentage will just realise their phone does it all anyway, and hey they are having to carry is anyway, and the revert back to either no watch or their preferred fashion watch they currently wear.

I'd think the above was a reasonable fair scenario.

That's probably about right, but the only thing you maybe fail to anticipate is the innovation in both apps and second generation hardware that could rope more people in.

 

[FrankySavvy]

I was joking. Guess you aren't a Trekkie.

I am

 

[ksuyen]

I think there will be an initial buying frenzy as per usual. Not up to Phone standards, but enough to make TV news, and see people showing them off to the Camera.

Initially there will be excitement wearing it, playing and fiddling, showing your friends what you have, and playing with the new novel features.

Personally, I think sales will slow reasonably quickly, not stop, but I think there will be a general slow down simply because not everyone who is into Apple actually will want one.

Likewise, it's only a subset of actual iPhone users can actually make use of it at all.

Its a non seller to everyone else.

This may not matter, and I'm sure Apple expects sales to be a little dulled after a while.

What will be interesting I think is what percentage of owners will still be charging and wearing the watch months later.

I honestly think there will be a fall off in this department as a percentage will just realise their phone does it all anyway, and hey they are having to carry is anyway, and the revert back to either no watch or their preferred fashion watch they currently wear.

I'd think the above was a reasonable fair scenario.

I think people will find the watch a good gift for partner. I see the sales would increase multiple folds during Christmas.

I also see people who bought the watch, wear it a lot more frequent than other watches (including Android smart watches), and depending on how they use the watch in everyday life, become dependent on it. Until it becomes a trend.

I also see celebrities who wear the Edition, in many pictures online and magazines and TV... or in movies... Until it also become a trend.

These without anything to do on Apple part. If we also counted all the ads that will be coming more and more in the future, I could see the sales will be pick up after initial cool down. Rather than a short burst only, I could see this as a long term steady sales for Apple (and yes, not in iPhone league, but more than AppleTV or any Macs).

 

[mashinhead]

This actually is a well reasoned argument.

I sort of agree.

But then again, who the **** knows

Remember the intial reaction to the iPad?

"It's just big iPhone hahaha! who needs that?"

What household doesn't have an iPad these days?

I think this will go the way of either the iPad or the Apple TV. Meaning it will have strong sales initially, and dwindle because the public realizes there isn't a need or a need to upgrade so much (a la iPad) or it will have minimal sales and six years later grow into something (a la Apple TV).

But if it's a bust it will surely be do do pricing. I think there is a screen fatigue, a charge fatigue, and an upgrade fatigue amongst consumers. Furthermore its unsustainable.. I think apple's hardcore base upgrades annually. I think they are expecting that for 4 product lines, which is unrealistic.

The Apple Watch is an accessory that is being priced and treated like a primary device. To buy an apple watch you need an iPhone, which basically makes it a 7-800 buy in on the low end.

One of the things Apple have done really well, is to be a premium/luxury brand that was still accessible to most people. It maintained that line while still being ubiquitous and democratized.

With the watch they are looking to do away with that. And most of that cost is really the bands!? If the innards are the same, and I can get one for $350, there is no reason why other elements should drive up the price that much.

 

[norwaypianoman]

A new sub-class

I just feel this will create a sub-class of those who cannot afford, or see the use of another flat, low-spec, filthy battery capity apple device.

Even in rich Norway this will be a stupid device.

So, I just say a simple no to the Apple Watch.

 

[Arran]

I'm often there on launch day, buying Apples latest, but the watch just isn't calling me.

And I think it's because I don't hate my existing watch enough. This is a common thread when you look back at past successes for Apple:

• iPod: People hated their MP3 players. The UIs were clunky and difficult to navigate. Song buying and management was a pain. Software was flaky. I grew to despise using my Sandisk and Creative MP3 players (and they weren't cheap either). iPod did it better.
• iPhone: People hated their smartphones. UI issues, crappy screens, styluses (ugh!), tiny keyboards, no 3rd party software. Indispensable as it was to me, I grew to loathe my HTC smartphone. iPhone did it all better.
• iPad: People had come to hate their netbooks. They were underpowered, overheated, uncomfortable to navigate with a touchpad and generally unwieldy and lackluster. I used it every day, but my Acer netbook was total crap. iPad did it better.

In all three categories, customers loved what the competing devices promised, but hated dealing with the shortcomings. That's how Apple won hearts: By offering something better, much better, than the competing devices that people had bought but regretted.

I just don't see that with the watch. The masses aren't sufficiently dissatisfied with what they have now. So is the watch destined to become Apple's next bluetooth headset or buttonless shuffle? Remember those? (No, you probably don't)

 

[shacky]

"Morgan Stanley said that by the time Apple Watch hits stores next year, some 315 million Apple customers will own an iPhone 5 or later, estimating that about 10% of them will buy the watch."
“We forecast the wearable market to hit 530M units in 2020 in our base case and 1B units in 2020 in our bull case,” Katy Huberty said.
-from a recent BGR news article

If the "wearables" market is likely to exceed 530 million units in 5 years, who do you think will be best positioned in that market?

 

[blairh]

So let me get this straight, you want the Apple watch to REPLACE your phone?

Because that is basically what you are saying...you want to leave your phone at home, wear the watch and have the watch still send you texts and receive calls for you, right?

Wake up.

That's exactly what the Gear S does. I think you are the one that needs to wake up.

And yes, in due time the Apple Watch will gain this ability. It will not replace your iPhone entirely. But it will let you leave it at home while you go out and do things.

 

[MozMan68]

Ummm...wake up....you still need a phone with the Gear S despite the fact that it works away from the phone.

I clearly stated that the person I was quoting obviously wants a watch that REPLACES a phone.

Nice try...

 

[FlatCable]

I just feel this will create a sub-class of those who cannot afford, or see the use of another flat, low-spec, filthy battery capity apple device.

Even in rich Norway this will be a stupid device.

So, I just say a simple no to the Apple Watch.

Explain the "low-spec" part?

----------

Ummm...wake up....you still need a phone with the Gear S despite the fact that it works away from the phone.

I clearly stated that the person I was quoting obviously wants a watch that REPLACES a phone.

Nice try...

Also you need a separate SIM card, and most carriers make you pay for a twin SIM card.

 

[AleXXXa]

Plus, they did an excellent job on the design.

What are you talking about? I've seen better looking G-Shocks, ffs. And Casio doesn't even market them as fashion accessories.

 

[fitshaced]

What are you talking about? I've seen better looking G-Shocks, ffs. And Casio doesn't even market them as fashion accessories.

I bet you're a hit with the ladies.

 

[blairh]

Ummm...wake up....you still need a phone with the Gear S despite the fact that it works away from the phone.

I clearly stated that the person I was quoting obviously wants a watch that REPLACES a phone.

Nice try...

No they weren't. They were stating that they wished the Watch wasn't so reliant on an iPhone.

 

[MozMan68]

No they weren't. They were stating that they wished the Watch wasn't so reliant on an iPhone.

My response clearly states what I thought the poster was asking for...and since he never responded, my interpretation is just as valid as yours. But also note that others apparently agreed with me as they responded affirming my original assertation.

Either way, what you are saying is that the ability of the Gear S to answer calls and texts via 3G/wifi far away from the linked phone is an important feature to you.

I claim it is pointless as no one (at this point in time) is willing to leave their phone at home and go out and rely on their watch as the main coimmunication device. If that was so key, every Samsung phone owner would be running out to buy a Gear S...not happening.

I'll stand by my statement....7-10 years before it is acceptable that a watch replaces a phone...REPLACES!

 

[blairh]

Either way, what you are saying is that the ability of the Gear S to answer calls and texts via 3G/wifi far away from the linked phone is an important feature to you.

I claim it is pointless as no one (at this point in time) is willing to leave their phone at home and go out and rely on their watch as the main coimmunication device. If that was so key, every Samsung phone owner would be running out to buy a Gear S...not happening.

I'll stand by my statement....7-10 years before it is acceptable that a watch replaces a phone...REPLACES!

Yes they are. Why would you assume such a thing?

I would absolutely love to leave my iPhone at home and spend a day at the beach. Or a night at the club. Or two hours at the gym. If the iPhone had this capability I would pre-order the Watch.

One of the most common gripes with the Watch is that it's so reliant on the iPhone itself with respect to proximity.

The reason why the Gear S didn't catch on has nothing to do with call forwarding not being desired. In fact it's probably the best thing about the Gear S. But it also runs Tizen. And it's physically big. And call forwarding isn't exactly perfect on it. When you make a call on the Gear S during call forwarding it uses a different number. That's pretty terrible.

And like I said in my last post, no one is talking about replacing the phone outright. It's a question of if and when the Apple Watch will have cellular capabilities that allow it to do many things on its own. That day will come sooner than you realize.

 

[MozMan68]

It's big...doesn't work right...etc. exactly why Apple didn't put 3G or wifi into the watch. My point is proven....you will not get that in any watch you want to wear anytime soon....and btw, all of this things suck up battery life which the Apple can't even cover now without those features.

 

[blairh]

It's big...doesn't work right...etc. exactly why Apple didn't put 3G or wifi into the watch. My point is proven....you will not get that in any watch you want to wear anytime soon....and btw, all of this things suck up battery life which the Apple can't even cover now without those features.

Your point is proven? You keep declaring things. You aren't proving anything.

At this point you are just stating that these features won't be coming to the Watch anytime soon, and that's really just based on nothing. I think smartwatches will make much faster advances in technology than you do. It's nothing either of us can be definitive about just yet.

Also most Gear S reviews declared the battery life as decent. That's nothing to celebrate but it's also proof that it can be done without being terrible. Granted that watch is rather large which probably helps with the battery but in due time the technology will come to the Apple Watch with equal or better battery in future generations.

 

[eoblaed]

I smell troll, but I'll respond anyway.

I can't help but feel that after the initial bask of glory sales boom, these are going to be sort of a bust.

Most of us willingly update/upgrade our phones and ipads etc coz newer ones offer more functionality, are designed better (or at least differently) etc, but one of my main wants when doing that is better battery life,

The fact remains that apparently the watch is going to need nightly recharging. That's a killer for me. Having to recharge it every night, otherwise the main function of a watch, to tell the time, after all, is lost? C'mon! That's rubbish.

Like I've asked others in other threads, do you sleep with your watch on? I don't understand the stress of touching a charger to the Watch when it's taken off at night.

Some education is in order, too: if the Watch runs down to critical levels of battery, it'll shut off all other features and keep the time face active for 72 hours.

And I still think the iPhone itself replicates most of what the Watch functionality gives me. SO why would I need the 2 devices? To do the same thing....

It's a convenience thing. When notifications come in (text, VIP email, app notifications, etc), instead of having to dig your phone out of your pocket for every. single. one., an instant glance at your Watch will let you know if it's something you need to respond to right now, or if it can wait until later. Bonus points if the response can be handled quickly right from the Watch.

Also, Apple Pay will be made even more convenient with the Watch. Not only will it no longer require pulling the phone out of your pocket, it won't require a finger print scan (provided you've unlocked Apple Pay for your Watch with your Phone after having put your Watch on).

There's the fitness stuff, too. When I'm out for my daily trail run, I now have access to my run data instantly, on my wrist. Digging my phone out out to take a peek at it is completely unworkable.

And then there is the tonka toy look of the homescreen with all those little round icons. From Apple? Seriously, this looks horrendous. Imagine buying a Gold Apple Watch, to have this monstrosity of a homescreen on it? It's just awful.

Personal taste. I don't mind the look, and you can swipe through a ton of app icons quickly with what they put together. You'll rarely see that screen anyway.

Ooooh, my wife just buzzed me her heart beat? A private 'message' just for me....Woopee....

My wife and I (of 25 years) are looking forward to these Digital Touch features, actually

No-one I know who has an i-anything is remotely interested in a Watch, me neither I am afraid.

You have an usual circle of friends, I would imagine. Clearly the Apple Watch isn't for everyone, and I'm not suggesting it's for you, but there are a significant number of people that are really digging on this thing and the greatly desired convenience it will bring.

 

[FrankySavvy]

I know there is a sentimental value to analog watches. They are beautiful time piece. An amazing feet of human engineering and craftsmanship.

However, I think we are entering a new generation.

Technically when the Analog wrist watch was introduced over a hundred years ago, it was a "smart-watch". It could tell the time, set a pace, and eventually tell the date.

Analog Watches will continue to exist indefinitely for decades to come, but in our society of being connected and how smart tech is getting, many people will look at devices such as their watch and realize, I wish it could do more.

To me, that is why the "Smart-Watch" will be the first successful wearable tech. It just needs to catch on. Now that Apple has entered the game, hold on to your butts.

What Apple has done is open the door for other manufacturers to start creating beautiful more personal smart watches.

Watches have always been a personal thing. Some people love the look of the Apple Watch, while others hate it.

Point is, whether you like the Apple Watch or not, Apple has made the smart watch personal. Just like your old analog watch.

My argument while defending the Apple Watch, is also defending smart watches in general. I think people who wear watches already (like myself) will be much more inclined to give their wrist real estate an upgrade. There will be skeptics at first, but I think they will catch on. That is not to say people will sell off their analogs, they just might be worn on a special occasion.

I also think the "Smart-Watch" will get people who don't wear a watch to start wearing one. There definitely will be some people who just don't like anything on their wrist, but to those who just haven't considered a wearable, it will eventually catch on as well.

I was a skeptic at first, but when I really thought about the things I would rather be doing then constantly reaching for my phone. I was sold on the idea.

It will not bust. The smart-watch is here to stay, whether you buy the Apple Watch or not.

 

[bushman4]

AppleWatch will catch on faster than the iPod did as more people have an iPhone now than ever.

 

[MozMan68]

Like I've asked others in other threads, do you sleep with your watch on? I don't understand the stress of touching a charger to the Watch when it's taken off at night.

If I'm buying a device designed to track my heart rate, sleep patterns, etc...I would expect to wear it at night.

I would then expect it to be charged fully in the 1/2 hour or so it takes me to s***, shower and shave.

It will be interesting to see the amount of people suddenly pissed off once they have to suddenly pull out their phone (like they have been doing for a decade) to see who is calling/texting/emailing them because the battery has died on their watch.

To your point, this one feature alone is probably the driving reason for most to get a smart watch, but that is not something new to the market. The expectation is very high (as is the price) from Apple to step up and do something more.

I think they need to move in tandem to a smart watch band as well as that would allow me to NOT be limited to their face design. I'll be waiting for the 2nd generation Apple Watch at a minimum to see if they address the look as well as function.

 

[camtechman56]

Ummm...wake up....you still need a phone with the Gear S despite the fact that it works away from the phone.

I clearly stated that the person I was quoting obviously wants a watch that REPLACES a phone.

Nice try...

No... If you look the gear s has a place for a sim card, and can work independent of the phone.