Flash is still going to die eventually. The internet went from a very small percentage of sites having HTML5 to over 50% within a few months of the iPad being released. The last i read it's closer to 78% now. At some point Flash will be phased out. Like it or not. Sure, it'll be on a random site here and there, but in general, it's going to die.
Microsoft said that years ago. Anyway, by the time HTML gets remotely close to do what Flash does, Adobe would have pushed it way far ahead and it will be always like that.
HTML5 is an embryo markup language (also called a ‘draft’) that is being compared with a fully mature, full feature object oriented programming language called ActionScript, used to build enterprise class Flash apps.
Thinking that HTML5 with javascript (another developer’s nightmare itself) can do everything a serious programming language does is delusional, it would be like saying I can drive to the moon with my car, it does not matter how good the car is or how motivated I am, it’s just not going to happen.
Never will HTML5 get even close to Flash and the reasons are:
* HTML5 is a draft created in 2008 that is not expected to become a ‘Candidate Recommendation’ before 2012 and is not expected to become an actual W3C ‘Recommendation’ before 2022 or later (Source: Wikipedia).
* HTML5 is a specification that requires years of efforts before new features and improvments can be fully deployed.
* HTML5 is not a programming language nor does it permit the protection and / or monetization of digital content without depending on another proprietary system such as iOS or Playstation.
* HTML5 is not 100% consistent accross browser therefore it can be visually rendered differently by Safari, Internet Explorer, Chrome, Firefox or Opera on Windows or Mac or any combination of those. Some website might have parts or features that work on some browsers and not others, or render differently in each with additional discrepency depending on the operating system used (PC, Mac, Linux).
Fact #1 - HTML5 is a Gigantic Mess!
HTML5 implementation is left to the browser… So what does that mean? It means that unlike the Flash Player which is the same everywhere and work the same everywhere, HTML5 is implemented by browser vendors, so basically Safari, Chrome, IE, Firefox, Opera all have their own way to deal with HTML5 and render it on screen.
As a result, developers using HTML5 spend 25% to 50% of their time making sure that each step works well on each and every browser, or don’t and deliver websites that will be broken in some browsers. Apple will make sure it breaks on IE, Chrome or Firefox and then will tell us “that’s because you don’t use Safari!”. Who use Safari anyway? 5% of users worldwide and 11% in the US! HTML and CSS are a nightmare I went through for years (I’ve done HTML and CSS for 11 years) until Flash came into my life. HTML5 is no exception.
Now who decides the future of HTML5? Google, Adobe, Mozilla, Apple… all competitors, most of which owning a browser, each with their own agenda, trying to block each other at one point or another. All those people have to agree before anything is added into the HTML5 standard.
Then, we have to wait for each browser vendor to implement the new features or changes. Did I mention that any browser vendor can decide to not implement a new feature at all even though it was added to the HTML5 standard? The’ve done it in the past and they will do it again, usually to block a competitor’s technology or product. When a feature is not implemented by any of the browsers then developers can’t use it, or the page will only work on certain browsers. A nightmare in a nightmare.
Meanwhile, Adobe has some of the best software rocket scientists on earth and does not need anyone’s approval to innovate. Its Digital Video and Rich Internet Application (RIA) technologies including Flash, Flex and AIR work everywhere in a consistent manner on the web, desktops, mobiles, tablets, IP connected TVs including all browsers, platforms and operating systems but Apple’s.
