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IDC Projects Windows Phone to Top iPhone in Market Share by 2015

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Everyone seems to be assuming these other countries will continue to buy nokia smart phones when they upgrade from their *muggle* phones. This seems like a big assumption to make. Everyone in the US owned motorola's, lg, RIM and even nokia's before switching to android/apple.

So a) there's no reason to assume the rest of the world will continue to buy nokia phones powered by windows 7

And

B) there's a decent chance most of nokia's market still won't have smart phones in 2015.

I for one am not going to even try to predict a volatile market 4 years in advance. I just think there's a lot of lazy assumptions being thrown out, same as when everyone assumed the ps3 would sell insanely more than the wii just because the ps2 was so successful.
 
False post!

that number you are looking at is growth, not share. the middle column shows share. learn to read a graph.
 
MacRumors said:



120017-idc_2015_smartphone_projections.png


IDC's worldwide smartphone operating system market share projections: 2011 and 2015
(Platforms listed alphabetically)
A new report issued today by research firm IDC is gaining significant attention for its bold prediction that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will surpass the iPhone in worldwide smartphone market share by 2015. The report cites the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft as being key to Windows Phone's performance, which is unsurprisingly projected to come at the expense of Nokia's own Symbian operating system that will be phased out.As for the iPhone, IDC sees the device averaging growth of 18.8% per year between 2011 and 2015, but that growth rate is predicted to be slightly lower than the overall smartphone market's growth of 19.6%. Consequently, IDC predicts that Apple's share of the smartphone market will slip slightly from 15.7% this year to 15.3% in 2015, although iOS is predicted to remain ahead of Research in Motion's BlackBerry operating system, which is predicted to slip from 14.9% to 13.7% of the market over the same period.

Article Link: IDC Projects Windows Phone to Top iPhone in Market Share by 2015
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt those figures. To say that Android will only have 45% of smartphone market by 2015 makes me think this is a joke prediction.
 
inkswamp said:
What exactly is your definition of "open source" anyway? There aren't really degrees of being open source. Something is either open source or it isn't. The code for iOS is not open source and so isn't any more or less open than Windows.

Some of the components that ship with iOS are open source (Webkit being the most notable and the one that gets the most press.) But make no mistake: iOS is not open source. At all.

That's not to make a qualitative judgment about iOS versus any other mobile OS, BTW. This annoying marketing crap coming from Google and others lately that push the notion of open source somehow being inherently a better way to go for anything is irritating. There's no need to defend iOS for being closed. Not everyone thinks that's a dirty word. It's a better mobile OS than any of the open source alternatives and there's no reason to be shy about it being proprietary. It is what it is.
Click to expand...

Opensource isn't an interpretive standard. Read up on it. http://www.opensource.org/docs/osd

iOS is absolutely more opensource than Windows, in the sense that a larger percentage of it's codebase is opensourced. It's not some ******** standard I just invented. iOS is based on BSD and a great deal of it's core components are opensource. http://www.apple.com/opensource/

I, personally, being opinionated and idealistic, view opensource as a "dirty word", and that it is inferior to Android in a number of ways, not the least of which is that it is much *more* opensource (again, remember how I justify considering things partially opensource -- it's a few lines up in case you missed it) than iOS. It's based on Linux, and google releases the sourcecode for each of the releases online.

There's no need to say that "nobody needs" to do anything. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, as you so hypocritically demonstrated in the final few sentences of your post. What you may have not figured out is that the trick is to be able to have the courage of your convictions and say:

"Hey, here's what I think and why. I encourage others to come to their own conclusions, but I personally think in such and such way."

Btw, this post is what I think and some of why I think it. I encourage others to come to their own conclusions, but I personally think in such and such way.

See how easy that was?
 
When did this forum become the Windows 7 fan board? Good lord. I come here to read about Mac stuff and every thread nowadays is a bunch of Windows/PC apologists.

Look, I don't care that you people exist. I don't care what OS you like better or that you only paid $5 for your laptop and haven't looked back. Seriously. Go to Microsoft's and Dell's forums and write your "LOLZ! OS EX IZ 4 LUSERS!" there.

At the end of the day all this whining about whether or not you can cut and paste from Finder is a joke. Windows Explorer and Mac Finder are both incredibly weak file managers. Directory Opus and Path Finder/Forklift are both vastly superior to the stock file managers. And, for those of us using an adult OS, we just open up terminal and do our file management there.

Wake me up when Windows is POSIX. Until that happens, it's laughable for a Windows apologist to refer to OS X as "dumbed down" or "less functional."
 
cult hero said:
When did this forum become the Windows 7 fan board? Good lord. I come here to read about Mac stuff and every thread nowadays is a bunch of Windows/PC apologists.

Look, I don't care that you people exist. I don't care what OS you like better or that you only paid $5 for your laptop and haven't looked back. Seriously. Go to Microsoft's and Dell's forums and write your "LOLZ! OS EX IZ 4 LUSERS!" there.

At the end of the day all this whining about whether or not you can cut and paste from Finder is a joke. Windows Explorer and Mac Finder are both incredibly weak file managers. Directory Opus and Path Finder/Forklift are both vastly superior to the stock file managers. And, for those of us using an adult OS, we just open up terminal and do our file management there.

Wake me up when Windows is POSIX. Until that happens, it's laughable for a Windows apologist to refer to OS X as "dumbed down" or "less functional."
Click to expand...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education

You might need that.
 
cult hero said:
When did this forum become the Windows 7 fan board? Good lord. I come here to read about Mac stuff and every thread nowadays is a bunch of Windows/PC apologists.

Look, I don't care that you people exist. I don't care what OS you like better or that you only paid $5 for your laptop and haven't looked back. Seriously. Go to Microsoft's and Dell's forums and write your "LOLZ! OS EX IZ 4 LUSERS!" there.

At the end of the day all this whining about whether or not you can cut and paste from Finder is a joke. Windows Explorer and Mac Finder are both incredibly weak file managers. Directory Opus and Path Finder/Forklift are both vastly superior to the stock file managers. And, for those of us using an adult OS, we just open up terminal and do our file management there.

Wake me up when Windows is POSIX. Until that happens, it's laughable for a Windows apologist to refer to OS X as "dumbed down" or "less functional."
Click to expand...

spoken like a true cult hero. kudos.
 
dwman said:
Here were their illuminating predictions in Jan 2010. :rolleyes:

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22176610

Key findings from a new IDC market outlook include the following:

Symbian will retain its leadership position worldwide throughout the forecast period. Due primarily to the strength of Nokia in markets outside of the United States, Symbian continues to lead all other mobile operating systems.
Click to expand...

Not that I have any faith in their predictions, but to be fair, the 2010 prediction you quoted is the same prediction they have today. They said Symbian would lead not on the strength of Symbian, but on the strength of Nokia and due to Symbian being Nokia's OS of choice. Now that Nokia has chosen Windows, they say Windows will lead because Nokia will lead.
 
Even as someone who is a fan of Android (I have an iPad and an iPod touch too) can only laugh at this. It's really a 2 horse race...iOS and Android.
 
bwwhahaahaa

In 4 years time, something else will blow us away. Phones won't just be phones, they will be our full computers likely.
 
inkswamp said:
Not sure what you're on about but the quote implies that Android is not a Linux-based mobile OS...
Click to expand...

That's how you're choosing to interpret the quote.

To me, since "Android" is called out as a category, I interpret "Linux-based" to mean "non-Android Linux-based".

Most technical people know that Android is based on Linux - so most technical people would realize that the writer means "Android" and "non-Android Linux-based".
 
retroactiv said:
You cannot CUT and paste in SL, only COPY and paste using the built in OS shortcuts.

I hate having to open two folders just to drag a file to MOVE it, so I had to pay $4 in the MAC App Store to get that functionality...
Click to expand...

Cutting and pasting while only opening one folder seems very odd.
 
It's only a prediction. 9 out of 10 predictions are wrong. On the other hand, predictions should be based on credible scenarios, this one is just outright ludicrous.
 
You know - this is a possibility. We DON'T KNOW what MS has up its sleeve... :eek:

MS may decide to really help subsidize the phone - like "give away the OS" and make it so the phone is FREE (on contract).

Furthermore, MS may decide to subsidize the cell phone companies so that the cell phone companies can give Windows Mobile users a deal on unlimited data ($20 month).

It MAY be possible to play catch-up, only in this sort of scenario...

The Microsoft Store is giving a deal on the phones - $99 plus *I think* $99 two year damage replacement for any reason to the newest phone available...
 
2 Replies said:
As much as I doubt that much massive growth, I'm more entertained by the "NEGATIVE" responses.
Not that I agree with them, (because I don't... I've used the WP7 and it's a decent phone with features people like that iOS will NEVER have)...
but mainly because having a negative reaction to a guess as to how other people will spend their money is such a infinitely retarded thing to do. X-D
Seriously, why the hell do any of you even care what type of phone other people decide to use? If you really DO like your iPhone, then you wouldn't.
Only an imbecil would make a personal purchase decision based mainly on what other people do.
The only reason anyone would care (besides being a stockholder, or Apple employee) would be that more than actually liking the phone itself you've bought the phone because you're a joiner.... you want to be 'popular' or in a 'majority'.
(Which honestly is a PATHETIC reason to make ANY purchase.)

X-D

(btw, yes I'm an iPhone owner)
Click to expand...

Being reasonable and rational will get you no where on this forum.

gkarris said:
You know - this is a possibility. We DON'T KNOW what MS has up its sleeve... :eek:

MS may decide to really help subsidize the phone - like "give away the OS" and make it so the phone is FREE (on contract).

Furthermore, MS may decide to subsidize the cell phone companies so that the cell phone companies can give Windows Mobile users a deal on unlimited data ($20 month).

It MAY be possible to play catch-up, only in this sort of scenario...

The Microsoft Store is giving a deal on the phones - $99 plus *I think* $99 two year damage replacement for any reason to the newest phone available...
Click to expand...

Quite true. Look how they took over the console market from Sony when everyone said it was impossible. If they decide to go after the phone market and throw a few billion at it they will get a decent market share.
 
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cult hero said:
When did this forum become the Windows 7 fan board? Good lord. I come here to read about Mac stuff and every thread nowadays is a bunch of Windows/PC apologists.

Look, I don't care that you people exist. I don't care what OS you like better or that you only paid $5 for your laptop and haven't looked back. Seriously. Go to Microsoft's and Dell's forums and write your "LOLZ! OS EX IZ 4 LUSERS!" there.

At the end of the day all this whining about whether or not you can cut and paste from Finder is a joke. Windows Explorer and Mac Finder are both incredibly weak file managers. Directory Opus and Path Finder/Forklift are both vastly superior to the stock file managers. And, for those of us using an adult OS, we just open up terminal and do our file management there.

Wake me up when Windows is POSIX. Until that happens, it's laughable for a Windows apologist to refer to OS X as "dumbed down" or "less functional."
Click to expand...

There are a lot of droid and Windows trolls here. If you defend Apple, showing you opinion and explaining why, you just get marked as fanboy.
 
marco114 said:
In 4 years time, something else will blow us away. Phones won't just be phones, they will be our full computers likely.
Click to expand...

This.

Motorola have already shown off their phone that docks and turns into a computer.

In four years time a phone will have a quad-core 2GHz+ ARM Cortex A15+ inside. It is already recognised for many users that CPU power is more than enough today as long as certain applications are accelerated.

Tablets with keyboard docks, phones with keyboard docks, docks that also have displayport output to a fixed monitor and USB hubs, and thunderbolt to more CPUs and GPUs and storage ... this is the future. And the company that embraces it and makes it all works will do well.

If Microsoft is sensible, they'll be putting a lot of resources into 'computerisation' of Windows Phone 7. Shame that they called it 'Phone' really - even Apple renamed their system to iOS because its remit extended past phones fairly quickly. Part of me suspects that Apple is well on the path to having a mobile device that can function as a full desktop computer too when docked. All the work on the iPad and AppleTV, bringing iOS features into Lion ... first steps to having a device that seamlessly works in your pocket, yet can also step up and do a full computer at home when you need it.
 
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